Unblocking The Main Thread Solving ANRs and Frozen Frames
Complex Systems & Focused Solutions
1. .L Booth Sweeney October
,21 2010 UWEX
Complex Systems & Focused Solutions
Roll Your Sleeves Up
and Try It!
2. Today
WORKING WITH SYSTEMS:
• EXPERIENCE SYSTEMS MAKE-OVERS
AND SYSTEMS CONVERSATIONS
Learning Goals
Learning Goals
Understanding systems
Making systems
visible
Working with
systems
Talking about
Systems
…developing systems literacy
3. When we understand systems,
we…
Get off the problem-solving treadmill
Make more informed decisions
Move beyond laundry lists and bullet points…
to seeing patterns of interaction that more closely match the more
interdependent, complex world we live in.
Stop jumping to blame a single cause for the
challenges we encounter…
Instead, look for multiple causes, effects and unintended impacts
“Solve for Pattern”
Solving more than one problem at a time (at least three) while minimizing
or eliminating the creation of new problems. -- Wendell Berry
Give our attention to the whole and the parts
7. $$ spent on
Infrastructure
improvements
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Less $$
available for
health care
Decline in healthcare
increases fatality
rates
Less money available, decline in healthcare.
8. Buying a Coke then is a very serious matter…
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
…one that requires
an understanding of
interconnections,
dynamics, and
systems.
9. Systems Thinking Focuses on FEEDBACK to describe
the interconnections and dynamics in the system
An open-loop, linear view asks: how should we react to the problem?
Situation
Goal
Problem Decisions Results
A systems view asks: What is causing the problem and how have our
past decisions and actions been part of it?
Situation
Goal
Problem Decisions Results
10. Systems Thinking Focuses on FEEDBACK to describe
the interconnections and dynamics in the system
An open-loop, linear view asks: how should we react to the problem?
Situation
Goal
Problem Decisions Results
A systems view asks: What is causing the problem and how have our
past decisions and actions been part of it?
Situation
Goal
Problem Decisions Results
13. 2. Name the key
elements
3. Sketch the
trends
1. Describe the
challenge
5. Find
Leverage
5. Find
Leverage
4. Make
System Visible
6. Share, Test
& Improve
6. Share, Test
& Improve
Applied Systems Thinking
14. Applied Systems Thinking
2. Name the Key Elements
What are the important
drivers? Write these as
variables. Describe any
known direct causal
connections.
3. Sketch the Trends
Graph behavior over time
of the issue(s). Does the
pattern suggest any
familiar structures?
Archetypes?
1. Describe the Challenge
& Related Vision
What are we concerned
about? What is happening
over time? What is the future
we want to see created?
6. Share, Test & Improve
Get feedback from others.
Find data. Perhaps use
simulation modeling. Act and
observe real world results.
6. Share, Test & Improve
Get feedback from others.
Find data. Perhaps use
simulation modeling. Act and
observe real world results.
5. Find Leverage
What changes would lead
to a more desirable
behavior? What strategy
could you use to achieve
these changes?
5. Find Leverage
What changes would lead
to a more desirable
behavior? What strategy
could you use to achieve
these changes?
4. Make the System Visible
• Ask: What structure or set of
relationships might be driving the
behavior or interest?
• Start with a key element
• Add causes & consequences
(option: connection circles)
• Close feedback loops
OR:
• Start with a key feedback loop
or an appropriate archetype
structure
• Add feedback as needed to
explain the behavior
15. Sometimes We Find “Leverage Points” -- Where Small
Actions Yield Large Results
“Maybe we should write that spot down.”
16. Applied Systems Thinking
1. Describe the
challenge
Adapted from the
Sustainability Institute
“Air quality in our town is getting worse.
What is driving this trend and what would
address the problem over the coming
years?”
17. Systems Thinking Flow
2. Name the
key elements
1. Describe the
challenge
Adapted from the
Sustainability Institute
•Number of high-particulate days
•Bad press
•Attractiveness of region
(in migration)
•Population
•Health problems (asthma rates)
•Pressure for regulation
•Regulation requiring scrubbers
•Use of scrubbers
18. Systems Thinking Flow
2. Name the
key elements
1. Describe the
challenge
Adapted from the
Sustainability Institute
•Number of high-particulate days
•Bad press
•Attractiveness of region
(in migration)
•Population
•Health problems (asthma rates)
•Pressure for regulation
•Regulation requiring scrubbers
•Use of scrubbers
19. Applied Systems Thinking
2. Name Key
Elements
3. Sketch the
Trends
1. Describe the
challenge
Expected
future trend
Goal
Years
1980 2000 20101990
Observed past
behavior
history future
Number of high
particulate days
per year
20. Applied Systems Thinking
2. Name Key
Elements
3. Sketch the
Trends
1. Describe the
challenge
4. Make the
System Visible
Adapted from the
Sustainability Institute
21. Applied Systems Thinking
2. Name key
elements
3. Sketch the
trends
1. Describe the
challenge
5. Find
leverage
5. Find
leverage
4. Make the
system visible
Adapted from the
Sustainability Institute
22. 2. Name the key
elements
3. Sketch the
trends
1. Describe the
challenge
5. Find
Leverage
5. Find
Leverage
4. Make
System Visible
6. Share, Test
& Improve
6. Share, Test
& Improve
Applied Systems Thinking
23. Options (using 6 steps):
1. Example from your work
2. Apply to this question:
How to expand the network of
sustainable communities in Wisconsin?
Try it yourself
Editor's Notes
And help others to learn about and navigate the dynamic complex world around them.
Take out some of the detail here…
Frame this as LEARNING GOALS.
ｷUnderstanding systems (living system principles)
ｷTalking about systems (using journal entries, mental models, prod.convo, common language)
ｷMaking systems visible (causal loop diagrams, animations, sims)
Working with systems (6 steps)
Continue on from Pollan:
The challenge is not just what we do with agriculture, it's connecting the dots between agriculture and public health, between agriculture and energy and climate change, agriculture and education.”
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen (Romanian born economist in 1979’s)
Fred Soddy: 1921 Nobel Laureate in Chemistry
DM: Systems thinking leads to another conclusionﾐhowever, waiting, shining, obvious as soon as we stop being blinded by the illusion of control. It says that there is plenty to do, of a different sort of "doing." The future can't be predicted, but it can be envisioned and brought lovingly into being. Systems can't be controlled, but they can be designed and redesigned. We can't surge forward with certainty into a world of no surprises, but we can expect surprises and learn from them and even profit from them.” (Dancing with Systems)
Coke made in factory, that burns fossil fuels and draws on and rapidly depleting ground water.
The chain of events from Coke to death was inspired by the work of Marion Brady.
Step one: write down your problem statement or vision statement around the commons you focused on Jaimie’s session. For ex. Air quality in our town is getting worse. What is driving this trend and what would address the problem over the coming years?
OR: School staff morale seems to oscillate. How to even out cycles?
2. Step 2: What are the important drivers of this problem? What are the related issues that need to be considered? Be open here… think of a lot of factors. You’ll narrow later. Write a list.
3. Step 3: Draw BOT’s
Quantitative data is ideal, but not necessary. Graph your best guess of the trend. In this step, pick 3-6 of the variables you listed in step 2, create BOT’s.
Next: Redefine your problem: PICK ONE OR TWO GRAPHS. focusing in on one or two of the variables. Why is this (increasingly bad air quality, for ex.) over time? And what is our desired future?
4. Step 4: systems map is a theory about why the BOT is behaving as it is. It is limited and bound by the variables you choose to focus on. When people (including you) want to add variables, ask yourself: Is this new factor a significant driver behind the trend in the BOT?
