Spire was honored to be invited as a guest speaker at the 3rd Annual South East Asia Retail Expansion Summit 2015.

1. ASEAN Retail Strategies:
Emerging Markets, in Search of Sustainable Growth
By Jeffrey Bahar, Deputy CEO Spire Research and Consulting
Prepared for:
3rd Annual South East Asia Retail Expansion Summit 2015
Jakarta, 21-22nd October 2015

2.  ASEAN macroeconomic situation and Retail Development
 The Future of Retail: e-Commerce to Eliminate the Border
 E-Commerce Development in Indonesia
 Barriers in Indonesia e-Commerce Growth
 Conclusion
Table of Contents

3. ASEAN Macroeconomic Situation and Retail
Development

4. Vietnam
GDP: US$186 billion
Population: 90.7 million
Urban population: 34%
Thailand
GDP: 374 billion
Population: 67.7 million
Urban population: 35.7%
Indonesia
GDP: US$889 billion
Population: 254.5 million
Urban population: 53.2%
Malaysia
GDP: US$ 327 billion
Population: 29.9 million
Urban population: 75.2%
Singapore
GDP: US$308 billion
Population: 5.5 million
Urban population: 100%
Philippines
GDP: US$ 285 billion
Population: 99.1 million
Urban population: 51%
5,519
3,492
2,870
56,287
10,933
2,052
Source: The Worldbank, CIA World Factbook, CEIC, DBS Bank
ASEAN Countries: The Top Six (2014)
Income per capita

5. Source: CEICdata, Bank of Indonesia, Economist Intelligence Unit, e-marketer
83 88 93
107
123
337 335 328
377
469
117 119 115 120 129
39 41 44 46 50
61 66 76 85
97
111 119 125
139
152
2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016*
RETAIL SALES IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES IN ASEAN (US$ BILLION)
Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Singapore Vietnam Philippines
ASEAN Macro Economic Situation:
Retail Sales
2014 Global Retail
Sales: US$22 trillion

6. Penetration of Modern Retail in ASEAN (2014)
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank, Spire Research and Consulting
43
16
45
71
25
28
57
84
55
29
75
72
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
Singapore
Vietnam
Philippines
Modern Retail Traditional Retail
Benchmark:
Germany 85%

7. Breakdown of Modern Retail Outlets in ASEAN (2014)
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank, Vietnam Ministry of Trade, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
55.1
43.4
15.9
5.3 14.5 16
Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam
Number of Supermarkets per 1m Population
2.9
5.6
4.1
1.1 1.8
0.3
Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam
Number of Hypermarkets per 1m Population
112.9
85.2
161.2
89.6
20.5 3.8
Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam
Number of Convenience Stores per 1m Population
303
1,298 1,079 1,362 1,631 1,452
16 167 281 269 178 26
621
2,547
10,916
22,818
2,031
348
Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam
Supermarket Hypermarket Convenience Stores

8. The Future of Retail: e-Commerce to Eliminate the
Border

9. E-commerce Market share Worldwide by Region
(2013)
Europe
United States
$395 (32%)
Japan
*Dominated by buyer from China and Japan
Source: eMarketer
2013 Global e-Commerce
Retail Sales: US$1.22
trillion
ASEAN
China
$230 (19%)
$181 (15%)
$119 (10%)
$7 (<1%)

10. Vietnam
90.7 million population
40 m netizens
24 m digital buyers
Thailand
67.7 million population
19 m netizens
14 m digital buyers
Indonesia
254.5 million population
39 m netizens
4.6 m digital buyers
Malaysia
29.9 million population
20 m netizens
16 m digital buyers
Singapore
5.5 million population
4 m netizens
3.2 m digital buyers
Philippines
99.1 million population
36 m netizens
25 m digital buyers
Top Six ASEAN Retail e-Commerce Market Size (2013)
Revenue of Retail e-Commerce (billion US$)
Source: IMF, eMarketer, eCommerceMILO, DigitalFilipino, WorldBank
$0.8
$1.3
$0.9
$1.3
$1.7
$1
US$ 7

11. B2C E-commerce Sales Share and Digital Buyer
Penetration Worldwide, by Region (2015*)
Western Europe
Central & East Europe
Middle East & Africa
Latin America
North America
31.7% 74.9%
3.2% 30.9%
24.6% 66.3%
2.3% 34%
3.8% 44.3%
33.4% 46.8%
Asia Pacific*
*Dominated by buyer from China and Japan
2015 Global e-Commerce
Retail Sales: US$1.7
trillion
Source: eMarketer

12. E-Commerce Development in Indonesia

13. 15%
18%
20.5%
22%
Products Bought via Online Channel in Indonesia
Source: Spire Online Survey
Beauty
Products
12% Sports
Equipment
4%
Automotive
Accessories
4% Health
Supplement
4%
Books
Fashion Products
Electronics &
Gadget
Gaming Products
11.36%
6.82%
29.55%
51.14%
1.14%
0.10%
41-50 years old
35-40 years old
28-34 years old
21-27 years old
16-20 years old
< 15 years old
Shoppers Grouped by Age

14. E-commerce Development in Indonesia
Source: Tech in Asia, Statista, Asosiasi Penyelenggara Jasa Internet Indonesia, Economist Intelligence Unit
Known Types of Online Shopping Platform
Online Stores
(50.3%)
Social Media
(43.1%)
Trading Forum
(27%)
Website (11.6%) Online Community
(9.7%)
Messenger (8.8%) Mailing List
(1.3%)
2015
2014
2016
2013
4.6
million
5.9
million
7.4
million
8.7
million
Number of Online Shoppers
• US$ 1.8
billion
2013
• US$ 2.8
billion
2014
• US$ 3.56
billion
2015
• US$ 4.49
billion
2016
E-Commerce Revenue Growth

15. Free shipping
Exclusive items or
deals
Product warranty
Safe and simple
payment methods
Source: Spire Online Survey
Shoppers Likes and Dislikes in Online Shopping
Trust issue on
product quality
No hands on
experience before
buying
High shipping cost
and slow delivery
time
Unreliable payment
method

16. Barriers in Indonesia e-Commerce Growth

17. “Slow Internet
speed”

19. “Limited payment
options and worry
over online
security”

20. Increasing Usage of Mobile Money in Indonesia
1%
2.30%
2.70%
7%
24%
33%
67.40%
Mobile Money
Rekber
PayPal
Debit Card
Credit Card
Internet Banking
SMS Banking
Payment Methods Used by Indonesia
Internet User
77,752
105,828
110,891
114,895
15,092 16,043 16,227 16,440
27,433
38,319
52,211
69,451
2013 2014 2015 2016*
Debet and Credit Card Ownership and Active
Smartphone Users in Indonesia
Debet Card Credit Card Smartphone Users
Source: Bank Indonesia, Asosiasi Penyelenggara Jasa Internet Indonesia

21. Mobile Money / Mobile Payment
Jak Card
Bank DKI
Bank Mandiri
Indomaret Card
Gaz Card
E-Toll Card
E-Cash
Bank BCA Flazz Card
Mega Cash
Mega Virtual
Tap Cash
Brizzi
BBM MoneyBank Permata
CIMB Niaga Rekening Ponsel
Nobu Bank Nobu E-Money
Bank BRI
Bank BNI
Bank Mega
1
t-cash
Indosat Dompetku
XL Axiata XL Tunai
Smartfren
Uangku
Telkom
I-Vas
Flexi Cash
Skye Sab
Binus Easy Transaction
Skye Mobile Money
FinChannel
Mynt e-moneyArtajasa
Doku WalletNusa Satu Inti Artha
Finnet Indonesia
Witami Tunai Mandiri Witami Tunai
mVcommerce Ponsel & Instan Pay
2
3
4
5
6
8
7
9
Bank Institution Telco Provider
1
2
3
4
5
3rd Party
1
2
3
4
5
6
(Dismissed in 2015)
Mobile Money Providers in Indonesia
Source: Bank Indonesia, Spire Research and Consulting

22. Case: BBM Money
Current BBM user:
8.5 million subscriber
Source: Spire Research and Consulting

23. Conclusion

24.  ASEAN hold a tremendous for future retail expansion
 E-Commerce will continue to see a double digit growth
 There are barriers to be addressed in order to promote e-Commerce:
 Limited Broadband Access
 Reducing trade border
 Reinforce Online Security
 Repair the logistics system

25. Tel: (62) 5794 5800
Fax: (62) 5794 5808
Wisma 46, Kota BNI 25th Floor,
Unit #08-10
Jakarta 10220
indonesia.info@spireresearch.com
www.spireresearch.com