The 2013 is almost gone, and it will hopefully stay in our memories as bright and eventful, as it has been, sometimes contradictory and unpredictable, and always educating. Let us take our time, and one of these last December days look back at this elapsing year the way it was seen by the financial markets professionals around the world. Following the tradition, we have made our new annual album - the 2013 in cartoons. In fact, the cartoons were sourced from our daily market commentary publications, where they aim at adding some irony to the pretty serious stuff
2. 2013: The Year In Review
JANUARY
1-10
21
FESTIVE ACTIVITIES
BAD HABITS
Republicans propose a short-term, 3
months increase of the U.S. debt ceiling.
By
14
22
PLATINUM DREAM
The U.S. Treasury Department and
the Federal Reserve oppose the idea
of minting platinum coins as a way to
avoid the U.S. debt crunch.
THE JAPANESE RECIPE
The Bank of Japan sets a 2% inflation
target and announced its asset
purchase program, which will start in
2014.
15
23
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THE NEW MARK
Barack Obama has urged Congress to raise
the debt ceiling without any debates.
WELCOME TO FINANCIAL MARKETS!
The Europeans propose FFT, a tax on transactions
with stocks, bonds and derivatives. The initiative is
backed by Germany, France, Italy and 8 other
countries.
3. 2013: The Year In Review
FEBRUARY
By
JUST GIVE ME A REASON
The market has found the reason for correction
9
NO MERCY. NO REGRET.
Japan's new prime minister continues to maintain his
economic recovery policy.
PROS AND CONS OF THE STRONG EURO
ECB is likely to keep current monetary policy unchanged
21
NEXT PATIENT!
Eurozone Finance Ministers will start their
concilium today. It is expected that Cyprus will
be in the center of discussions.
11
TIME FOR MEDITATION
Japan's GDP fell in Q4 2012 by 0.1% compared to Q3 or
0.4% in annual terms.
14
WINDING UP?
According to the Fed January minutes, a number of
the Committee members called to slow down the
pace of the asset purchases
21
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TRUCE IN THE CURRENCY WARS
Following the G-20 meeting in Moscow, the participating
countries declared their intention to refrain from competitive
currencies devaluation
18
THE HEAVENS TREMBLE
Moody’s downgrades the UK rating to Aa1
THE “ANTI-CRISIS” PARLIAMENT
Parliamentary elections in Italy start on the weekend
22
25
4. 2013: The Year In Review
MARCH
“ALMOST THERE”
The US Senate has rejected both the Democrats and the
Republicans proposals to replace the spending reduction
1
SECOND TIER
The president of Cyprus asks Athens to share EUR 2 bln
part of the Greek bank recapitalization package.
12
PLAN “B”
The Cypriots, after the failure of the negotiations with
Russia, present their "Plan B"
21
By
“READY FOR AUDIT”
The Cyprus government has approved an independent
audit of its banking system
5
CYPRUS “ANTI-CRISIS” PLAN
Eurozone agreed on USD 10 bln help for Cyprus after the
introduction of a one-off levy on the bank deposits
18
END OF THE CHAVEZ ERA
Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez dies at the age of
58, after 14 years in power
6
A DIFFICULT DECISION
The parliament of Cyprus voted against the levy on deposits
20
THE ISLAND OF LOCKED MONEY
Cyprus authorities impose capital restrictions
WHO’S NEXT?
Dijsselbloem said that Cyprus bail out must become a
template for other Eurozone banking sector bailouts.
26
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28
5. 2013: The Year In Review
APRIL
By
2
3
UNCLEAR THREAT
North Korea is probably preparing
for new a nuclear test.
8
16
5
SLOVENIA MAY BE NEEDING THE ASSISTANCE
OECD called the Slovenian authorities to take some
steps to solve the country's banking system problems
10
ON SALE
Brent oil prices fell below USD 100 per barrel level
“SINK OR SWIM”
ECB and BoE left interest rates and
stimulus programs unchanged
WHO IS TO BLAME?
Those responsible for the crisis in Cyprus are
“wanted” in the country.
VICTIM OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES
Italian President Napolitano may resign to give his successor more
freedom in government formation negotiations
RUMORS
Rumors on the possible Germany downgrade are circulating
on the market.
18
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THE MINOR REVISION
IMF will revise its US GDP growth forecast in 2013 to
1.7% from 2%.
12
TASTY!
BoJ Governor Kuroda affirms his plan to stimulate
Japanese economy and gains support by the G-20 finance
ministers.
22
6. 2013: The Year In Review
MAY
RALLY GOES ON
The DJIA has hits through 15 000 mark first time
ever
8
By
TIME TO HEAL OLD PAINS
US politicians have to re-start negotiations on US debt ceiling.
13
16
WHAT'S NEXT, BEN?
Fed Chairman Mr. Bernanke will deliver his economic
outlook to the U.S. Congress.
22
17
WHAT DID YOU MEAN, BEN?
Decision to scale back the USD85 billion bonds buying
program could come at one of the "next few meetings"
23
B2B (BACK TO THE ‘Bs’)
Fitch upgrades Greeceby two notches from CCC to B15
BLACK HAWK UP
Fed President John Williams
said Fed could begin to reduce QE this summer
NONSTOP RALLY
S&P 500 hits the new highs as the markets expect ongoing
monetary stimulus
Schildershoven Finance
“FINAL” WARNING
Moody’s Investors Service warned the U.S. rating may be cut in
2013 if the federal budget deal isn’t made.
21
NICE TO FIND THAT MISSED COIN
US 1Q 2013 GDP was revised from preliminary assessment of
2.5% to 2.4%
31
7. JUNE
2013: The Year In Review
A
DANGEROUS
GAME
Schildershoven Finance
By
SO MANY MEN, SO MANY MINDS!
Fed members continue to announce their positions on
the current and the future Fed policy
4
6
THERAPY MAKES ITS EFFECT
Standard & Poor’s has changed its outlook on
US sovereign rating to stable from negative.
11
10
«WAR GAMES»
Russia disagrees with the other G-8 members
on the ways to stabilize the situation in Syria.
TV OFF
The 24-hour strike began in Greece after the government
shuts down Hellenic Broadcasting Corporation
13
THE GLOBAL SELL OFF
NOTHING’S WRONG!
Stock indexes slumped worldwide following the Fed announcement Fed members announced their view on the market reaction to the
to start tapering the QE program this year.
previously made Fed statement
21
EMPLOYEES REQUIRED!
US Nonfarm payrolls increased in May to 175 000
THE DANGEROUS GAME
24
18
THE TENSION EASES
Fed members keep trying to calm down the markets.
28
8. 2013: The Year In Review
JULY
By
FITCH BLESS AMERICA
Fitch Agency affirmed the U.S. credit rating at 'AAA,'
1
9
HIT THE BRAKES
Richmond Fed Manufacturing index unexpectedly
fall to minus 11 in July
ENOUGH!
BACK TO WORK!
Egyptian army commanders propose to US Employment Situation data published on
suspend the constitution and elect a
Friday was better than expected.
new president if the president refuses
to accept the army ultimatum
3
2
LONG LIVE GREECE
Eurogroup affirmed EUR 3bln aid package
to Greece in return for further reforms.
24
THE “DELAYED-ACTION” SPY
Former CIA officer Edward Snowden
filed a request for political asylum in Russia.
BEN THE ‘SAVIOR’
THE CBR FIRST LADY’S FIRST NIGHT
This is the first time the CB of Russia Board Bernanke in his testimony to the
meeting will be chaired by Elvira Nabiullina. Congress said the QE exit strategy
was not preset and would depend on
economic data.
15
18
LENDING SLEEPS
According to ECB report, lending to businesses and households in
the euro area fell 1.6%
26
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8
MARKET PROTESTS
Russian stock indexes plunged after the Moscow
mayor candidate Navalny was sentenced to 5
years in prison
19
SHALL WE?
The two-days Fed meeting is starting today
30
9. 2013: The Year In Review
AUGUST
By
SHALL WE?. PART II
Today ECB and Mario Draghi will be the main
newsmakers.
1
NEW DAY, NEW COURSE
This week Fed representatives will
give comments on monetary policy.
THE NEW FAVORITE
2
6
LET’S DO IT!
BACK FROM THE RECESSION
FRB of Atlanta president Lockhart assumes,
France’s Finance Minister says that the country’s
that the decision to start reduction of QE program
economy went out of recession in 2Q2013.
may be taken at any of the next few meetings.
13
THE BOOK OF RIDDLES
Investors are awaiting the publication of last Fed
meeting minutes
20
GUILTY!
The U.S. President Barack Obama may
launch his military operation in Syria
26
8
THE SUPERHERO
German GDP increased by 0.7% in
2Q2013
15
14
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FLIGHT TO QUALITY
Escalation of the Syrian conflict forces
the markets to race to defensive
investments
28
TRADE BOOSTS
China’s exports expanded by
5.1%, imports gained 10.9% in
July.
“ABENOMICS ” IN ACTION
Japan’s export increased in July 12.2%
YoY.
19
OH NO, NOT AGAIN!
US and UK senators wonder of the
findings of the UN Commission before
the military action in Syria will begin.
10. 2013: The Year In Review
SEPTEMBER
“INTELLIGENCE DOSSIER”
The French government published the
"intelligence dossier” in proof of the Syria
government forces chemical attack
3
By
THE G-20 RUSSIAN VENUE
The G-20 meeting begins today in St.
Petersburg with expected topics being the
world economy and the situation in Syria.
5
Schildershoven Finance
«THE DEATH LOOP»
UST'10 yield returned up to the levels
of 3.0% p.a.
THE COMPROMISE
Armed strikes against Syria could be
postponed if its government puts its
chemical weapons under international
control.
6
10
50 MEGABUCKS
Verizon places the largest corporate bond
ever - USD 49 billion.
12
SURPRISE!
Fed members decided to postpone the QE
tapering
SAY “NO” TO CHEMICAL ARMS
Assad signed Syria’s accession in the
Chemical Weapon Convention
13
NO TIME TO REST
The Christian-Democratic parties’ CDU /
CSU unit led by Angela Merkel won the
parliamentary elections in Germany
THE COFFEE BREAK
HITTING THE BRAKES
Market activity is sluggish ahead of the Fed's
Lawrence Summers withdrew his
candidacy to become the Federal Reserve decision on the current monetary policy.
Chairman.
16
YOU CAN’T STOP THE BEAT
William C. Dudley said in New York that “the
economy still needs the support of a very
accommodative monetary policy”.
18
RUN FORREST! RUN!
U.S. may start the 2014 fiscal year
with no budget approved.
19
23
24
30
11. 2013: The Year In Review
OCTOBER
By
THE EMBARRASSING FAILURE
Members of U.S. Congress haven’t been able to
overcome their frictions and agree even on the
interim 2014 budget.
1
YOU MUST BE KIDDING! … NO?
China expresses concern over the safety of their
investments in the U.S. assets
8
LET THE BATTLE BEGIN
Mr Obama and the House Republican leaders discuss the
proposal for a temporary increase in the debt ceiling
11
THE NEW TEAM LEADER
As expected, Mr. Obama puts Mrs Janet Yellen in charge of
the Fed.
10
THE SCHOLARS BET
Economists are expecting that the U.S. economy added
180,000 workers in September
22
NEW MEETING. NEW EXPECTATIONS
A two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting starts tomorrow.
28
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"BIG BROTHER" IS WATCHING YOU
The German government digests the news that
the Merkel’s private phone may have been
monitored by the U.S. intelligence.
24
LET’S WAIT…
The Federal Reserve decided to stick to its USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases.
31
12. 2013: The Year In Review
NOVEMBER
By
NOW IT’S GONNA BE FASTER
ECB lowered its key interest rate by a quarter of a
point to 0.25% after the drop in inflation threatened
its mission to keep prices stable.
A NEW VESSEL
The Treasury is set to sell USD 10-15 billion of its first
floating-rate notes Jan. 29. The debt will have a 2-year
maturity and it will be the Treasury’s pilot issue of this
type of securities in 17 years.
8
7
WE SHALL GO THIS WAY
Fed representatives are scheduled to speak
today: William C. Dudley in New York, Eric
Rosengren in Abu Dhabi, Charles Plosser and
Narayan Kocherlakota in Philadelphia
18
LEND US THAT HELPFUL HAND
The nominee for the next Chairman of the Federal
Reserve, Mrs Janet Yellen, said the economy and labor
market were performing “far short of their potential”
and must improve before the Fed can begin reducing
monetary stimulus.
14
THE FALL OF THE ROMAN TITAN
Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio
Berlusconi was expelled from parliament.
THE NOVEMBER LULL
26
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13. 2013: The Year In Review
DECEMBER
GETTING BETTER AND BETTER
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 57.3 in
November, the highest since April 2011.
By
10
6
MAYBE… ANYTHING ELSE?
Fed begins two-day meeting today
NEXT CUSTOMER, PLEASE!
U.S. Retail Sales rose 0.7% in October, signaling 4th quarter
GDP growth might not be as weak as expected.
13
17
THE KEY POINT.
Fed will cut bond buying program by USD 10bn to USD 75 bln in January 2014,
19
UP, TO THE SKY!
US GDP rose 3.6% in the 3rd quarter
PLACE YOUR BETS
According to ADP Employment Survey the US private sector in
November gained 215,000 jobs
5
NO MORE FEARS
Investors believethat any tapering-related pullback will be
only a temporary sell off
Schildershoven Finance
SETTING THE TREND?
U.S. GDP rose at its fastest pace in two
years by 4.1% annualized for the 3rd
quarter
23