2. The ultimate reason why people fly for pleasure,
business and work is the amount of time it saves
which can be diverted into other useful ventures.
It is fast with least probability of accident, but
whenever it occurs, it is the deadliest of all means of
transportation.
From the 1st instance of plane crash that happened in
1969 to the most recent, Nigeria is yet to find the root
causes of plane crashes – at least so it seems.
This studies takes a look at Plane crashes and its:
Relationship with days of the week
Airplane with most Occurrence
Location of Occurrence
Month of Occurrence
Rates of Occurrence
3. Presentation of Data
No. Date Day Month Year Week Day Airline Victim Location
1 20-Nov-69 20 Nov 1969 Thursday Nigeria Airways 87 Lagos
2 22-Jan-73 22 Jan 1973 Monday Royal Jordanian Airlines 176 Kano
3 1-Mar-78 1 Mar 1978 Thursday Nigeria Airways 16 Kano
4 28-Nov-83 28 Nov 1983 Monday Nigeria Airways 53 Enugu
5 26-Sep-92 26 Sept 1992 Saturday Nigerian Air Force 163 Lagos
6 24-Jun-95 24 June 1995 Saturday Harka Air Services Tupolev 16 Lagos
7 13-Nov-95 13 Nov 1995 Monday Nigeria Airways 9 kaduna
8 7-Nov-96 7 Nov 1996 Thursday ADC 151 Lagos
9 31-Jan-97 31 Jan 1997 Friday Skypower Express 5 Yola
10 5-Jan-00 5 Jan 2000 Friday Skypower Express 17 Abuja
11 4-May-02 4 May 2002 Tuesday EAS Airline 148 Kano
12 22-Oct-05 22 Oct 2005 Saturday Bellview 117 Lagos
13 10-Dec-05 10 Dec 2005 Saturday Sosoliso 107 PH
14 17-Sep-06 17 Sept 2006 Sunday Dornier 15 Benue
15 29-Oct-06 29 Oct 2006 Sunday ADC 98 Abuja
16 3-Jun-12 3 June 2012 Sunday Dana 153 Lagos
The first occurrence of plane crash was in 1969
5. Relationship with days of the week
Week day Total
Sunday 3 All together, Weekends (Friday,
Monday 3
Saturday & Sunday) contributes 56%
Tuesday 1
Thursday 3 of all crashes.
Friday 2
Saturday 4
Grand Total 16 It is also worth noting that
Midweek – Tuesday & Wednesday –
records only 1 occurrence.
A qualitative analysis of air traffic focusing on
Midweek and Weekend would reveal more details
on the speculations that the weekends sets the
mood for likely accident
6. Airplane with most Occurrence
Airline Total
ADC 2
Bellview
Dana
1
1
Nigeria Airways
Dornier 1
EAS Airline
Harka Air Services Tupolev
1
1
4 of 16
Nigeria Airways 4
Nigerian Air Force
Royal Jordanian Airlines
1
1
25%
Skypower Express 2
Sosoliso 1
8. Month of Occurrence
Month Total
Jan 3 PASSENGER TRAFFFIC
AIRPORT Jan Feb Mar Total
June 2 TOTAL 907,734 833,383 881,514 2,622,631
Mar 1 AIRPORT April May June Total
May 1 TOTAL 1,030,886 970,442 982,455 2,983,783
Oct 2 AIRPORT July Aug Sept Total
TOTAL 1,059,254 1,112,405 1,061,347 3,233,006
Nov 4
AIRPORT Oct Nov Dec Total
Dec 1 TOTAL 1,220,964 1,178,374 1,287,706 3,687,044
Sept 2
1st Quarter (JFM) – 4, 2nd Quarter (JFM) – 3
3rd Quarter (JFM) – 2, 4th Quarter (JFM) – 7
Plane crash is more likely to happen in the
1st & last Quarters of the year.
9. Rates of Occurrence
No. Year Victim
1 1969 87
Number of Occurrence – 16 times
2 1973 176
3 1978 16 16 air crashes in 43years
4 1983 53
5 1992 163 16 air crashes claim 1331 lives
6 1995 16
7 1995 9
8 1996 151
1 air crash in 2.6875years (average)
9 1997 5
10 2000 17 1 air crash claim 83.1875 lives (average)
11 2002 148
12 2005 117 1331 lives in 43years
13 2005 107
14 2006 15 30.95 lives in 1year (average)
15 2006 98
16 2012 153
43yrs 1331
10. Ministerial Press Briefing – 365 Days of Aviation Sector Transformation
By: Princess Stella Adaeze Oduah, OON (Hon. Minister of Aviation)
Monday, 21st May, 2012
11.
12. This address was before the Dana plane
crash in June, no mention was made of
“Ageing plane”
Recent findings show most air plane in
Nigeria are old and already at their end
of life. However, beyond the age is the
low maintenance culture.
13. If the right thing is done – proper
monitoring and certification – we
sure can have safe trip!
