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UNCLASSIFIED




  Ballistic Missile Defense:
Overview and Implications for
        Naval Planners
                Naval War College
  Non-Resident Seminar: Joint Maritime Operations
                  30-31 Jan 2012




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    THIS PRESENTATION IS
     UNCLASSIFIED
Please Keep the Discussion At That Level


                      All Material is drawn from public/open sources
         Program Information is Drawn From MDA’s Public Website (www.mda.mil)



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                       OVERVIEW
•! Ballistic Missile Basics
   •! Essential Lexicon
   •! Threat
•! BMD Fundamentals
   •! History/Background
   •! Doctrine & “Three Pillars”
   •! BMD Phases of Intercept
   •! BMD Elements
•! BMD Planning and Execution
   •! BMDR
   •! Homeland Defense and PAA
   •! BMD Planning Lexicon
   •! BMD Ops in the Joint/Maritime
      Environment
Break
•! Discussion


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          Part I
Ballistic Missile Basics




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          Essential Ballistic Missile Lexicon
Ballistic Missile Class                          Max. Range (km)     Relevant International Conventions


Short Range Ballistic Missile          SRBM      <1000

Medium Range Ballistic Missile         MRBM      1,000 – 3,000                            INF Treaty
                                                                     MTCR             (Bi-lateral; US-RU)
Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile   IRBM      3,000 – 5,500     (Multi-lateral)


Intercontinental Ballistic Missile     ICBM      >5,500
                                                                                        START Treaty
                                                                                      (Bi-lateral; US-RU)
Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile   SLBM      Varies




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Ballistic Missile Composition
 SIMPLE DESIGN:                                COMPLEX DESIGNS:
   SCUD variant                                        MaRV


                                                     MIRV

                                                      PBV
              Warhead/RV

                   Tankage:
                  Oxidizer &
                  Propellant

                  Airframe

                  Guidance                     Multiple
                                              Stages with
                                              Separating
                                               Warhead

                  Motor




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                               Ballistic Missiles:
                               Propellant Types
                              Propellant = Fuel + Oxidizer which produces Thrust
               Solid Propellant                                                  Liquid Propellant
•! Basically – combustion chamber tubes                     •! Combines separately stored liquid chemicals,
   packed with a propellant that contains                      a fuel and an oxidizer, to produce thrust.
   both fuel and oxidizer blended together                  •! May be either cryogenic or hypergolic:
   uniformly. For example Shuttle SRBs:
                                                                •! Cryogenic Propellant : very cold, liquefied
 •! Oxidizer -- ammonium perchlorate                               gases as fuel and oxidizer; Typical uses:
    (69.93%)                                                       SLV
 •! Fuel – Powdered aluminum (16%)                              •! Hypergolic Propellant: fuel and oxidizer
                                                                   ignite on contact with each other. No spark
 •! Catalyzer -- Iron oxidizer powder                              is needed.
    (0.07%)
                                                                  •! SCUD B/Shahab/No Dong: Inhibited
   •! Remainder is an epoxy binder that                              Red Fuming Nitric Acid (IRFNA)
      also burns                                                     (oxidizer) + Unsymmetrical
                                                                     Dimethylhydrazine (UDMH)(fuel)
•! Shape of chamber controls burn via
   exposed propellant surface                               •! Advantages: highest energy per unit of fuel
                                                               mass, variable thrust, and a restart capability
•! Advantages: Stable, storable; simple –
                                                            •! Disadvantages: Complex storage/plumbing;
   enables mobility;
                                                               Precise injection metering; High capacity
•! Disadvantages: Low tolerance for error                      pumps; Limited mobility and long term
   in manufacture, cannot shut down &                          storage; HIGHLY TOXIC (hypergolics)
   restart


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                          Ballistic Missiles:
                         Basing Mode - Fixed
Ballistic missiles are deployed from either fixed or mobile
     bases
•! Silo: Hardened, underground shelter for security and
   protection from elements
   •! Not immune to attack, difficult for liquid
      propellant missiles for long term storage
•! Elevate to Launch: Semi-buried, better access to
   service missile, useful when terrain does not permit
   deeply buried facilities
   •! More vulnerable to attack
•! Roll-out to Launch: Missiles stored in hard/deeply
   buried facility, rolled out to pre-surveyed launch pad
   for launch
   •! Missiles vulnerable until launch or returned to
      facility; gives away intentions (aids opponent
      I&W) and may lead to preemptive strike.




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                           Ballistic Missiles:
                         Basing Mode - Mobile
Ballistic missiles are deployed from either fixed or mobile bases
•! Rail: Permits dispersal across broad area; organic support;
   deployment of “heavy” missiles
   •! Unique identifiers of train set, maintenance shelters a
      weak point, costly infrastructure to build/maintain
•! TEL/MEL: Most mobile of land-based modes, self-sufficient
   for solid propellant missiles; easier for CCDD
   •! Limitations on size/weight of missile and supporting road
      infrastructure/terrain
•! SHIP-BASED: Asymmetric threat concept but on the
   margins
   •! Vessel size/stability vs. sea state directly impacts ability to
      successfully elevate, service, launch missile
•! SLBM: Most survivable, assured 2nd strike. Employed by US,
   Russia, with China and India in development
   •! Very expensive to develop, build and operate
•! ALBM: Allows launch closer to threat territory decreasing
   flight and warning times
   •! Limited by carrier aircraft size




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       Ballistic Missiles Defined
•! Guided only during boost phase
   of flight

•! Once powered flight is complete,
   only gravity affects remainder of
   trajectory
   •! Plus a little drag on reentry

•! “Guided” has historically implied
   a relatively gentle means of
   controlling the state vector at
   thrust termination (Vbo)
   •! To a static target


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             Ballistic Missiles Defined:
                       Reality
In reality, ballistic missiles are not “ballistic” . . . there are many ways to change trajectory during
    and after boost
    •! Endo-atmospheric maneuvers
       •! Maneuvers in the atmosphere using aerodynamic surfaces on the booster or RV
           •! Used during boost, after boost or both
    •! Exo-atmospheric maneuvers
       •! Maneuvers outside the atmosphere using small liquid propellant thrusters or solid
           propellant motors
       •! Used after boost
    •! Generalized energy management system maneuvers
       •! Used on boosters that allow all stages to burn to depletion (i.e., solid fuel); missile
           pitches and yaws during boost phase to waste energy to control range
           •! Can result in a much less “gentle” guidance during boost phase


                        Complicates Missile Warning And BMD Missions


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                            Endo-Atmospheric
                               Maneuvers
Booster Mounted
•! Uses aerodynamic surfaces for lift                                 Booster
   •! Takes advantage of atmosphere and missile’s velocity to
      “fly” further down range
   •! Can increase range by 100s of km over “basic” ballistic
      missile




RV Mounted (MaRV)
•! Ballistic missile performance and accuracy decrease as             MaRV
   ranges >500 km if payload remains attached to booster
   •! Booster needs to be strengthened for re-entry
   •! Easier to separate payload after boost
•! To make a MaRV, add moveable fins to separating
   payload
   •! Then maneuver in atmosphere during re-entry to: Avoid
      defenses; aero range extensions; add terminal guidance
      maneuvers
•! All at large ranges


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         Boost-Phase Maneuvering
Generalized Energy Management Steering (GEMS)
•! Many solid propellant missiles don’t shut down
   to control range, instead their motors burn to
   depletion
•! Since thrust is constant, boosters pitch/yaw
   during powered flight to “waste” energy as
   required to make planned range.
   •! Examples: Trident I C4 SLBM and THAAD
•! May be as simple as corkscrews or more complex
   maneuvers


     This is an example of GEMS           …and this is not
           (THAAD launch)         (failed BULAVA SLBM launch)




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                         Exo-Atmospheric
                           Maneuvers
Post-Boost Vehicles (PBVs)
•! Use a small (typically restartable liquid
   propellant) upper stage motor
   •! Deploy MIRVs from a single booster
      •! Targets may be 100s of kms apart
   •! Deploy BMD countermeasures
   •! Correct boost phase errors during mid-
      course flight




                                        Inflatable decoy
                                     for Minuteman III



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              Ballistic Missile Threat
•!   Ballistic missile threat will continue to
     proliferate and grow in capacity and
     capability
•!   Increasingly seen as both an asymmetric
     threat and economical log-range/deep
     strike alternative to manned aircraft
•!   Threat countries are pursuing WMD
     warheads despite international sanctions
     and counter-proliferation efforts
•!   Future systems will incorporate active and
     passive countermeasures and a reduced
     logistical footprint
•!   Mobility and underground facilities will
     protect deployed missiles
•!   Growing mobile force using deception and
     denial Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
     which complicate I&W and counter-
     targeting



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Worldwide Ballistic Missile
   Proliferation: 1990




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Worldwide Ballistic Missile
   Proliferation: 2009




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                   Ballistic Missile Threat:
                         North Korea
•! Nation “of the greatest concern” according to 2010
   BMDR
 •! Nuclear ambitions + long-range missiles
    •! Nuclear tests Oct 2006 and May 2009
•! Three attempted space launches, none successful
 •! 1998, 2006, 2009
 •! 2006: Simultaneous with 6 x SRBM & MRBM
    launches
 •! 2009: Closest to success; demonstrated potential
    ICBM capabilities in 3-stage variant to reach
    CONUS
•! Mobile IRBM under development and may be
  operational
•! Extensive hardened/deeply buried supporting
   infrastructure and garrisons complicate I&W
•! “Serial proliferator” of nuclear and ballistic missile
   technology and whole systems                             Toksa    SCUD     No Dong Musudan Musudan          Taepo
                                                                      B/C                       ER             Dong 2
                                                             120-     300-    1300 km   3000 – 4000 km (est)   15000 km
                                                            140 km   500 km                                     (3-stage)

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          Ballistic Missile Threat: Iran
•! Active indigenous program 2nd only to China in
   size/scope; nuclear program strongly condemned in
   2011 IAEA report
•! Majority of inventory – liquid propellant SRBMs
   •! Mobile force supported by growing hardened/
      deeply buried infrastructure
•! Aggressive solid propellant effort
   •! Fateh-110 SRBM and Ashura MRBM
•! Two ASBM development programs
   •! Recently demonstrated as part of naval exercise
•! Safir SLV – 2 successful on-orbit deliveries in three
  attempts
   •! Knowledge and technology developed would aid
      IR/ICBM program
•! “Serial proliferator” – to other state and non-state
   actors
                                                                       SCUD                Shahab-3             Ashura/   Safir
                                                           Fateh-110            Shahab-3              BM-25
                                                                       A/B/C                 ER                  Sejil    (SLV)
                                                                        300-
                                                            200 km              1300 km    2000 km    2500 km   2000 km
                                                                       600 km

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                 Ballistic Missile Threat:
                           China
•!Largest, most active and diverse ballistic
  missile program in the world
•!Ballistic missile force developed and deployed
  for range of missions from nuclear deterrence
  to conventional precision strike
 •!Key part of A2/AD capabilities ICW large                   Taiwan Strait SAM & SRBM
   ASCM/LACM force                                            Coverage. This map depicts
                                                              notional coverage based on the
•!2010 BMDR notes an imbalance of forces                      range of land and sea based missile
                                                              systems, including advanced SAMs
  across Taiwan Straits primarily because of                  that China would likely employ in
  numbers of SRBM/MRBM deployed                               a Taiwan conflict.

  •! Est. 1,000 – 1200
•!ASBM in development or early deployment
  specifically to counter US CVBGs
•!Non-signatory to MTCR but verbal pledge to
  some provisions



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                      Ballistic Missile Threat:
                           Other Notables
•! India: Ballistic missiles & nuclear weapons
 •! Active, indigenous program to build/deploy a range of ballistic
    missiles
 •! Ranges cover all of Pakistan and eventually all of China
•! Pakistan: Ballistic missiles & nuclear weapons
   •! Not nearly as extensive as India – requires significant outside
      help
   •! Focused primarily on India
•! Israel: Ballistic missiles & nuclear weapons (undeclared)
   •! SRBM to IRBM (Jericho II/III)
   •! Focused on Iran but able to range other regional threats
•! Syria: Ballistic missiles & WMD program
   •! Primarily SRBM from Russia, North Korea and/or Iran
   •! Reports of sharing weapons and training with Hezbollah
•! Russia: Treaty limited (INF) to weapons of 500km or less;
   party to MTCR which limits transfer of technology,
   materials, systems and knowledge
   •! Broad hints and statements since 2002 over possibly breaking
      with INF Treaty
   •! Extensive use of SRBMs in Georgian conflict (2008)



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     Part II
BMD Fundamentals


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BMD Timeline




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                                      BMD Doctrine
                                                                                                                              UNDER RE-WRITE

Guiding Pub: “Countering Air and Missile Threats” (JP 3-01, 5 Feb 2007)

BMD included under Counterair Mission:
!!   “The counterair mission integrates both offensive and defensive operations, by all capable joint force components, to counter the air and
     missile threat by attaining and maintaining air superiority” (Chp 1)
!!   Counterair mission consists of Offensive Counterair (OCA) and Defensive Counterair (DCA) missions.
     !! Offensive Counterair: “The goal of OCA operations is to prevent the launch of enemy aircraft and missiles by destroying them and
        their overall supporting infrastructure prior to employment. This could mean preemptive action against an adversary”
         !! As applied to BMD – Attack Operations to include “attacks on missile sites,…,command and control (and) infrastructure”
     !! Defensive Counterair: “(A)ll defensive measures designed to detect, identify, intercept, and destroy or negate enemy forces attempting
        to penetrate or attack through friendly airspace” Includes active and passive measures
         !! As applied to BMD:
             !! Active Defense: “…direct defensive action taken to destroy, nullify, or reduce the effectiveness of air and missile threats against
                friendly forces and assets. It includes the use of aircraft, air defense weapons, missile defense weapons, electronic warfare (EW),
                sensors, and other available weapons/capabilities.”
             !! Passive Defense: “…all measures, other than active AMD, taken to minimize the effectiveness of hostile air and missile
                threats against friendly forces and assets. These measures include detection, warning, camouflage, concealment, deception,
                dispersion, and the use of protective construction.”



                          Sometimes Referred To As “The Three Pillars of Missile Defense
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             BMD: Attack Operations
         “…to prevent the launch of enemy . . . missiles by destroying them and their overall supporting infrastructure
                       prior to employment. This could mean preemptive action against an adversary”
In Theory: Preferred method of countering missile threats by reducing level of threat defensive forces face; AO range throughout
enemy territory, are conducted at initiative of friendly forces, and normally are a high priority.
In Practice: Not very successful where ballistic missile forces are concerned:
•! Operation CROSSBOW (Dec 43 – Jun 44): Allied bombing campaign against V-1 and V-2
 •! >25,000 sorties with > 36,000 tons of bombs dropped against production and support facilities including fixed launch pads
   •! Net result – V-1 strikes continued and V-2 strikes began against London summer ’44
•! Operation DESERT STORM (1992): Dedicated A-10 & SOF assigned to seek/destroy SCUD MEL/TEL
 •! 1/3 of the 2,000 daily sorties dedicated to SCUD hunting
   •! Net result – SOF team captured, 0 MEL/TEL struck, launches continued against Israel and single largest US casualty event
      of DS was via SCUD strike
Major challenges to AO: ROE and real-time, actionable intelligence.




      Peenemunde V-2 test site


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               BMD: Passive Defense
“…all measures, other than active AMD, taken to minimize the effectiveness of hostile missile threats against friendly
                                               forces and assets.”


•!Passive BMD improves survivability by reducing the likelihood of detection and
  targeting of friendly assets and thereby minimizing the potential effects of adversary
  reconnaissance, surveillance, and attack.
  •!Passive measures include detection, warning, camouflage, concealment, deception,
    dispersion, and the use of protective construction.
    •!Treaties and export control regimes may also be considered a form of passive defense




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                    BMD: Active Defense
“…direct defensive action taken to destroy, nullify, or reduce the effectiveness of hostile missile threats against friendly forces and
                                                              assets.”
 •! Active BMD includes the use of aircraft, air defense weapons, missile defense weapons, electronic warfare
    sensors, and other available weapons/capabilities.
      •! Missile defense is defined as “defensive measures designed to destroy attacking enemy missiles, or to
        nullify or reduce the effectiveness of such an attack.”
  •! Integration of systems enables defense in depth, with the potential for multiple engagements that increase the
     probability for success.
      •! AMD assets normally provide overlapping coverage, however, not all anti-air DCA assets have organic
         capability against BM; likewise, not all anti-BM DCA have anti-air and CM defense capabilities.
      •! Offensive counterair and defensive counterair operations use many of the same sensors, weapons, and
         command and control systems.




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                 BMD: Intercept Phases
                                                             Apogee




                          Vbo                               Mid-Course
                                                              Phase

                        Boost Phase
                                                                             Terminal
                                                                              Phase
Launch to
           V
(180-320 s bo
          ec)
                                               Launch to
                                                           Apogee
                                               (< 1,000 se
                                                           c)
                                                                             Launch to Im
                                                                                          pact
    (times for ICBM flight ( >10,000 km from launch site)
                                                                             (~2,000 sec)




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         BMD By Flight Phase: Boost
•!In theory – most vulnerable part of flight
   •!Missile thrusting to gain acceleration
   •!Highly visible exhaust plume aids detection/
                                                                                             Note: As of Dec 2011,
     tracking                                                                                ALTB to be mothballed
   •!3-5 minutes travel in Earth’s Atmosphere
   •! Damage to aerodynamic surfaces or
     airframe breach may induce fatal
     aerodynamic loads

•! Challenges
   •!Compressed launch notification to intercept
     timeline/sensor challenges
   •!BMOA may be geographically too far to
     successfully complete endo-atmospheric
     intercept
   •!Countermeasures (hardening, counter-
     intercept platform defenses, GSM, TTP)
                       All Active Boost Phase Intercept Programs are Proof of Concept Only
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                        BMD By Flight Phase:
                             Ascent
ASCENT PHASE: begins right after the missile’s powered
flight and ends just prior to apogee. Benefits include:
   •! Earlier intercept in the battle space
   •! Optimizes a “shoot-look-shoot” tactic to defeat threat
      before countermeasure deployment
   •! Enables debris mitigation
   •! Reduces number of interceptors required to defeat a raid
      of threat missiles
   •! Reduces loading on remainder of BMDS architecture by
      not eliminating need to track and kill a threat reentry
      vehicle and associated objects,
   •! Reduces costs of maintaining significant number of
      expensive interceptors to destroy advanced
      countermeasures in a later phase of a threat missile’s
      flight
•! Places a premium on early launch detection and tracking,
   emphasis on launch/engage on remote and need for longer-
   range interceptors
•! Mostly PPT and paper CONOPS – if funded, capability
   won’t be fielded until late this decade/early 2020’s
   •! Significant technical, engineering, C2 and fiscal challenges



                                        Boost Phase + Ascent Phase = “Early Intercept”
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                     BMD By Flight Phase:
                         Midcourse
•! Offers longest decision space over course of flight –
   up to 20 to 30 min for ICBMs
•! Missile coasting to apogee
•! Exoatmospheric intercept
 •! Debris mitigation for WMD
•! Challenges
 •! Detection/tracking:
   •! Non-thrusting cold body presents IR detection/
      tracking challenges;
   •! Radar affected by horizon and position relative
      to flight path
 •! Discrimination: warhead(s) obscured by debris
    cloud and/or deployed PENAIDS
 •! PBV maneuvering, MiRV
 •! Salvage fusing effects
   •! Nuclear weapons effects from an offensive
      warhead fuzed to detonate when attacked

                                Majority Of Current BMD Effort Focused In This Area
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                  BMD By Flight Phase:
                      Terminal
•!Missile re-enters atmosphere
•!Atmosphere acts as a screen to strip away debris
  cloud/PENAIDS
•!Challenges:
  •!RV free-falling at extremely high speeds
    (+22,500 KPH for ICBM RVs)
  •!High-g maneuvering by MaRVs
  •!Limited engagement space owing to
    speeds, fuzing and warhead altitude
    detonation or dispersion of submunitions
  •!Lower tier engagements must deal with debris
    mitigation from upper tier intercepts


 Most Demanding Environment On BMD Systems And
       Supporting C2 And C4I Infrastructures



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                BMDS: System of Sensors
                    and Shooters
The Ballistic Missile Defense
System is an integrated, “layered”
architecture that provides multiple
opportunities to destroy missiles and
their warheads before they can reach
their targets.
The system’s architecture includes:
•! Networked sensors and ground-
   and sea-based radars for target
   detection and tracking;
•! Ground- and sea-based
   interceptor missiles for destroying
   a ballistic missile using either the
   force of a direct collision, called
   “hit-to-kill” technology, or an
   explosive blast fragmentation
   warhead;
•! A Command, Control, Battle
   Management, and
   Communications Network
   providing the warfighter with the
   needed links between the sensors
   and interceptor missiles.              The BMDS Is Designed To Counter Ballistic Missiles Of All Ranges



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                                  Ground-Based:
                                 Midcourse Defense
•! GMD: “Engage and destroy limited intermediate- and long-range
   ballistic missile threats in the midcourse battle space to protect the
   United States”
•! Elements:
 •! Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI): Three-stage, solid fuel
    booster with an EKV (Exo-atmospheric Kill Vehicle)
 •! Ground Systems: Includes redundant fire control nodes,
    interceptor launch facilities, and a complex
    communications network for planning, directing and
    controlling GMD element
•! Current Configuration:
 •! GBIs: emplaced at Fort Greely, Alaska and Vandenberg
    Air Force Base, California. A total of 30 interceptors were
    deployed at the end of 2010.
 •! Fire control, battle management, planning, tasking and
    threat analysis take place via a dual-node, human-in-control
    interface located in Fort Greely, Alaska (49th MD Battalion)
    and Colorado Springs, Colorado (100th MDBE)
 •! GND C2 via GMD communications network, a secure
    data and voice communications system using both
    SATCOM and fiber optic cabling for long-haul
    communications.



                                                                                 Cue & track

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             Ground-Based: Terminal
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD): a globally
transportable, rapidly deployable capability to intercept and
destroy ballistic missiles inside or outside the atmosphere during
their final, or terminal, phase of flight.
•! Land-based, capable of shooting down a ballistic missile inside
   and just outside the atmosphere w/hit-to-kill technology.
•! Procurement: First two Batteries fielded at Fort Bliss, TX.
   Total hardware for Battery #1 & #2 include:
 •! 6 Launchers, 2 Fire Control & Communications components,
    2 AN/TPY-2 Radars, and 48 Interceptors. Delivery of first
    production interceptors began in March 2011. Batteries 3 and
    4 on contract March 2011 with delivery and fielding to start
    in 2013.
 •! Dec 2011: Agreement to sell battery to UAE
PATRIOT Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3): Operational and
fielded by the U.S. Army.
•! Procurement: The Army is responsible for production and
   further development of the PAC-3 and the Medium Extended
   Air Defense System; the Missile Defense Agency remains
   responsible for the Ballistic Missile Defense System and PAC-3
   interoperability and integration efforts.




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                                 Sea-Based BMD:
                                   Aegis BMD
•! Aegis BMD: Describes the entire program of sea-based BMD
   but primarily focused on the mid-course intercept of SRBMs,
   MRBMs some IRBMs and in latter versions, a limited
   capability against certain ICBMs
   •! Modifications and upgrades to the Aegis Weapons System
      (sensors, hardware and software – currently ver. 3.6.1) and
      the SM-3 BLK 1A interceptor.
   •! 24 Deployed/forward-based CG/DDGs currently
      configured (includes one developmental ship, USS LAKE
      ERIE)
•! Missions:
   •! Aegis LRS&T: Forward deployed Long Range
      Surveillance & Tracking support to GMD for Homeland
      Defense
   •! Aegis BMD: Exo-atmospheric, mid-course intercept and
      endo-atmospheric, terminal intercept
       •! First Aegis BMD Patrol (EUCOM AOR): 2011                              FY    FY    FY    FY     FY    FY    FY     FY    FY    FY
                                                                                11    12    13    14     15    16    17     18    19    20
   •! Aegis Ashore: Shore-based program to support PAA
      derived from the Aegis BMD ship-based program, using          BMD-cap.
                                                                                23    28    32    36     38     41   42     43    43    43
                                                                     Ships
      the SM-3 BLK IIA and a land-based only version for long-
      range intercept of ICBMs.                                       SM-3
                                                                                111   129   155   201
                                                                                                         263    341  428    500
                                                                                                                                  513   515
                                                                    Inventory                           +TBD   +TBD +TBD   +TBD




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   Sea-Based BMD:
      Ship Mods




                                       NFIC-CA has critical role in IAMD (cruise- and TBM) mission




The caveat: These plans all depend on outcome of major program cuts
                      and revisions DoD-wide



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             Sea-Based BMD: SBT
Sea-based Terminal: Provides a sea-
based, endo-atmospheric intercept
capability for a limited threat set.
•!Initially comprised of 72 modified SM-2
  Blk IV deployed on BMD configured
  ships with the Aegis BMD 3.6.1 system.
   •!Blast frag warhead, not HTK
•!Increasingly capable versions of SBT will
  be fielded beginning with Increment I
  SBT (IOC 2014) which uses the SM-6
  with BMD 5.0 and Increment II SBT
  (IOC 2018) which will debut with BMD
  5.1                                                 SBT: Sea-Based Terminal Kill vs. SRBMs




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    Part III
BMD Planning and
  Execution

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                           Navy BMD Pedigree
National guidance and policy:
           22 July 1999:                    16 Dec 2002:                            March 2006:                          June 2008:                    17 Sept 2009: “Field
           National Missile                 NSPD-23 -                               NSS – “Field                         NDS – “Missile                more of most capable
           Defense Act of 1999              National Policy                         BMD to protect                       defenses can                  theater MD systems
            (Public Law 106-38)             on Ballistic                            US from rogue                        defend against                to protect our forces
                                            Missile Defense                         states”                              attack should                 and those of allies.”
                                                                                                                         deterrence fail”


                DIRECTS
DOD/JCS guidance:
                                                                                    Guide/Influence
     MDA      January                     15 March 2007 –                          15 Dec 2008 –
   CHARTER    2002 –                      Missile Defense                          NAVY BOD
              MDA                         Executive Board                          Membership
              Charter                     (MDEB)                                   Memo                                        2010
                                          Established                                                  2012

Navy guidance:                                                                                                               Guide/Influence
           October 2007: A               Sept 2009: CNO Guidance                                          Naval                               Fleet
           Cooperative                   2010 – “Issue NOC that links                 Navy              Operating                           TACPRO
           Strategy for 21st             CS21 to operations and force               Strategic            Concept
           Century                       structure with guidance from               Guidance
           Seapower                      QDR 10 and BMDR 10”                          PR-11
                                                                                                             (NOC)                          TACMEMOs
                                                                                    Classified


                                         •! Limit Regional Conflict                                             •! Deterrence
“…preventing wars            CS-21       •! Deter major Power War                               CS-21           •! Sea Control
 is as important as         Strategic
                                         •! Win our nation’s Wars
                                                                                                 Core           •! Power Projection
                                         •! Homeland defense                                                    •! Forward Presence
  winning wars.”           Imperatives   •! Cooperative Relationships                         Capabilities      •! HA/DR
                                         •! Prevent or Contain Local Disruptions                                •! Maritime Security

                                                                        UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




         The Ballistic Missile Defense
              Review (BMDR)
The BMDR - Congressionally mandated and guided by
Presidential directive, released in Feb 2010 for the
purpose of conducting a comprehensive review of US BMD
policies, strategies, plans and programs.
Established Policy Priorities:
1.!U.S. will continue to defend the homeland against the
   threat of limited ballistic missile attack.
2.! U.S. will defend against regional missile threats to US
   forces, while protecting allies and partners and enabling
   them to defend themselves.
3.!Before new capabilities are deployed, they must
   undergo testing that enables assessment under realistic
   conditions.
4.!The commitment to new capabilities must be fiscally
   sustainable over the long term.
5.! US BMD capabilities must be flexible enough to adapt
   as threats change.
6.!US will seek to lead expanded international efforts for
   missile defense.
                                                               “This review. . . will result in an enhanced defense of the United
                                                                 States and its forces, allies, and partners from the danger of
                                                                 ballistic missiles wherever and whenever they threaten us.”


                                                       UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




          Defense of the Homeland
“The United States will…”
•! Maintain readiness…develop capabilities at Fort
   Greely, AK (FGA) and Vandenberg AFB, CA
   (VAFB)
•! Complete the 2nd field of 14 silos at FGA as a hedge
•! Deploy new sensors in Europe to improve cueing for
   missiles launched at the US from Iran or
   elsewhere in Middle East
•! Invest in further development of the SM-3 for
   future land-based use as ICBM threat matures
•! Increase investments in sensors and early-
   intercept kill systems to defeat countermeasures
•! Pursue new enhancements…and other hedging
   strategies including continued development of a
   two-staged ground-based interceptor




                                                    UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




             Phased Adaptive Approach
“A key objective (for regional defense) is to leverage recent
successes in regional missile defense to further expand that
capability at low risk.”
•! Near-term capabilities
   •! Increase procurement of proven systems (SM-3,
      THAAD, An/TPY-2)
   •! Improve already developed technology
      •! “Aegis Ashore” – 2015 epoch: land-based Aegis
         BMD weapons system including land-based SM-3
         variant
           •! SM-3 BLK IB, BLK IIA, BLK IIB/NGAM
      •! Develop/deploy enhanced C2BMC
•! Long-term Capabilities
      •! Develop SM-3 BLK IIA/IIB with higher Vbo and
         divert, providing greater regional coverage
           •! BLK IIB will have some early-intercept
              capability against long-range missiles
      •! “Engage on remote” – enables interceptor               “Ballistic missile defenses help support U.S. security commitments
         engageability at greater ranges using off-board         to allies and partners. They provide reassurance that the United
         sensors                                                 States will stand by those commitments despite the growth in the
      •! Develop persistent overhead sensors to detect/ track               military potential of regional adversaries.”
         large raid sizes over entire trajectories from space



                                                       UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




             PAA Implemented: Europe
Sep 2009 decision followed SECDEF/JCS recommendation to
revise Sept 2007 deployment plan
•! Phase 1 (2011): Existing missile defense systems deployed
   to defend against short- and medium-range ballistic
   missiles.
 •! Protection of portions of southern Europe with sea-based
    BMD supported by new TPY-2 site in Turkey
•! Phase 2 (2015): Fielding enhanced capabilities -- SM-3
   Block IB and additional sensors.
 •! Phase 2 will include land-based SM-3s in southern                  2009 CONCEPT
    Europe expanding coverage to additional NATO allies.
•! Phase 3 (2018): Coverage against medium- and
   intermediate-range threats improved with 2nd land-based
   SM-3 site, located in northern Europe, and deployment of
   SM-3 BLK IIA
 •! Extends coverage to all NATO allies in Europe.
•! Phase 4 (2020): adds capability against a potential ICBM
   launched from the Middle East against the United States.
 •! Deploys SM-3 BLK IIB/NGAM will be available.




                                                        UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




                       BMD:
             International Participation
 “The U.S. is committed to working intensively with allies and
                         partners…”


Per the BMDR, international cooperation is
focused on:
•!Development and deployment of joint and/or
  complementary capabilities
•!Technological and industrial cooperation
Current Initiatives:
•! Europe: implement PAA in a NATO context
•! East Asia and Middle East: strengthen
    cooperative relationships in bilateral
    frameworks
    •! Arrow development program w/Israel
    •! THAAD sale to UAE
•! Renew cooperation with Russia
•! Conduct a substantive and sustained
    dialogue with China


                                                          UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




              BMD Planning Lexicon
•! Defended Area (DA): Defended area is the portion of the territory protected against long-range missile
   attacks;
•! Critical Asset List (CAL): A list compiled by the JFC w/input from components of assets requiring theater
   level protection
 •! Organized by phase of operations and prioritized
•! Defended Asset List (DAL): a list of those assets on the CAL that receive theater level asset protection.
 •! Each defended asset on the DAL should be prioritized as requiring active air defense or appropriate passive
    measures if that is all that is available.
•! Launch Area Denied (LAD): Refers to the collection of threat countries from which the DA is protected;
•! Probability of Engagement Success (Pes): The probability that all attacking warheads are destroyed, derived
   from the probabilities associated with missile defense functions like detection, discrimination, and hit-to-kill;
•! Raid size breakpoint: The maximum number of warheads the system can realistically defeat in a single
   engagement. This metric is highly dependent on interceptor inventory.




                                                    UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




           BMD Planning Lexicon
                                                     Point Defense
                                                     (PAC 3)

                      DEFENDED AREA                     Area Defense
                                                    (Aegis BMD/THAAD)



Critical Asset List




                                              Launch Area Denied



                               UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




           BMD & Joint Doctrine for
              C2 Architecture
•!The JFACC / Area Air Defense Commander (AADC) is the supported
  commander for Counter-Air operations to include BMD – The
  JFMCC has a supporting role (JP 3-01)
•!In mature theaters, the JFC will normally designate the JFACC as
  the AADC and Airspace Control Authority (JP 3-01)
•!Decentralized execution remains a basic C2 tenet of joint operations.
  The level of control used will depend on the nature of the operation
  or task, the risk or priority of its success, and the associated
  comfort level of the CDR. (JP 1)
  •!BMD engagement timelines may dictate that engagement authority be
    held by the ship’s CO for optimal employment of BMD-capable ships
•!Strategic considerations may drive engagement authority to be held
  at the highest level in some situations (JP 1)




                                       UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




                      Navy C2 Architecture
                        Planning Factors
•! JFMCC is the persistent maritime IAMD planning and execution command echelon
•! IAMD ships are multi-mission platforms that are most effectively controlled by a Maritime Commander
•! A Maritime Commander will retain OPCON / TACON of multi-mission ships
       •! Provides most effective asset management for AADC
       •! Maximizes warfighting capacity and capability across all component commanders
       •! Optimizes logistics support
       •! Ensures asset protection and safety of navigation
•! When the size and scope of the mission dictates, JFMCC will recommend a RADC to support the AADC
   for optimum employment of multi-mission ships




                   Multi-mission Ships Are Most Effectively Controlled By Maritime Commander

                                                   UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




               Integrated Air & Missile
                     Defense C2
                                               JFC / JTF                                  Supporting
                                                                                          OPCON / TACON
                                                                                          Lines of Coordination
                                                                                          Engagement Authority




                                                JFACC
                  JFMCC                                                    JFLCC
                                                AADC                       TAAMDCOORD
                                                DAADC




                                               CRC
                  CTF IAMD     RADC            RADC         RADC           AAMDC
                                                            ADAFCO




                 Maritime                     Airborne                    Land-based
                 Sensors and                  Sensors and                 Sensors and
                 Shooters                     Shooters                    Shooters



•! JFMCC is a supporting commander to JFACC/AADC for IAMD
•! Navy retains OPCON and TACON of multi-mission IAMD ships
•! When the size and scope of the mission dictates, JFMCC will recommend a RADC to support the AADC for
   optimum employment of multi-mission ships
                                             UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




IAMD C2 Vision:
  The Reality




     UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




        TF Integrated Air & Missile
                 Defense
•!JFMCC conducts operations at the Operational level from the Maritime
  Operations Center (MOC)
•!Commander, Task Force Integrated Air and Missile Defense (TF IAMD)
  is the JFMCC’s tactical execution agent for the air and missile defense mission
•!CTF IAMD may serve as the RADC for the maritime BMD fight
•!In most cases, CTF IAMD would reside at the MOC where the supporting
  integrated planning and C2 resides




                   CTF IAMD is JFMCC’s Tactical Execution Agent for IAMD
                                       UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




            What This Means For The
               Joint Community
•!Joint Force Commanders have a consistent
  path to maritime IAMD capability in every
  theater
•!Optimized maritime contribution to theater-
  level plans and operations
•!Supports JP 3-01 for IAMD C2
                                                                            Theater IAMD C2 Elements
 •!Identifies maritime node to support JFACC /             Joint Force
                                                           Commander       ACC        MCC         LCC
   AADC development and execution of the Area                                         USFF       263rd
                                                           NORTHCOM       1st AF
   Air Defense Plan                                                                             AAMDC

 •!CTF IAMD plans for maritime IAMD                        SOUTHCOM       12th AF     C4F         N/A

 •!CTF IAMD, when designated as RADC plan,                  EUCOM         3rd AF      C6F
                                                                                                  357th
                                                                                                 AMDD
   coordinate, and execute engagements                                                           32nd
                                                           CENTCOM        9th AF      C5F
                                                                                                AAMDC
                                                                                                  94th
                                                            PACOM         13th AF     C7F
                                                                                                AAMDC
                                                                                                  94th
                                                             USFK         7th AF      C7F
                                                                                                AAMDC


                      The Path to Maritime IAMD Capability is Through the JFMCC

                                            UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




                     BMD Challenges
Countermeasures
 •!PENAIDS: Chaff, decoys
 •!Terminal maneuvers
 •!Multiple warheads/HGV
 •!Salvage fuzing
Debris
 •!Upper stages, separation debris,
   “chuffing,” other intercepts
Adversary TTP
•!Attack BMD system
•!Trajectory shaping/depressed trajectories
•!Raids
•!Mass launches/Timed arrival
Positional
•!Location of sensors/shooters relative to
  BMOA
Geo-political
•!Host-nation concerns/issues


                                          UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




BREAK

 UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




Discussion




   UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




Backups




  UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED




             BMD: Tracking and Cueing
                                                                  Vz
                                                                            Area Of Uncertainty (AOU)
Full Covariance: Space track report transmitted by a BMD
platform:                                                                                  Aegis Track Covariance


   Position: X-Y-Z Cartesian
   coordinate system w/origin @
   Earth center
                                                                                                        Vy
   Velocity: Along X, Y & Z axes.
   Predicts future BM position.


                                                   Vx
Full covariance provides a more reliable AOU around the
current and future positions of the space track, enabling
construction of a search pattern that efficiently utilizes
sensor resources by limiting the search only to the most
probable area of the sky

                                                                       (Earth center)




                                                        UNCLASSIFIED

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Ballistic missile defense_overview_for_nwc_jmo_final-ver1-3_24_jan2012-u

  • 1. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missile Defense: Overview and Implications for Naval Planners Naval War College Non-Resident Seminar: Joint Maritime Operations 30-31 Jan 2012 UNCLASSIFIED
  • 2. UNCLASSIFIED THIS PRESENTATION IS UNCLASSIFIED Please Keep the Discussion At That Level All Material is drawn from public/open sources Program Information is Drawn From MDA’s Public Website (www.mda.mil) UNCLASSIFIED
  • 3. UNCLASSIFIED OVERVIEW •! Ballistic Missile Basics •! Essential Lexicon •! Threat •! BMD Fundamentals •! History/Background •! Doctrine & “Three Pillars” •! BMD Phases of Intercept •! BMD Elements •! BMD Planning and Execution •! BMDR •! Homeland Defense and PAA •! BMD Planning Lexicon •! BMD Ops in the Joint/Maritime Environment Break •! Discussion UNCLASSIFIED
  • 4. UNCLASSIFIED Part I Ballistic Missile Basics UNCLASSIFIED
  • 5. UNCLASSIFIED Essential Ballistic Missile Lexicon Ballistic Missile Class Max. Range (km) Relevant International Conventions Short Range Ballistic Missile SRBM <1000 Medium Range Ballistic Missile MRBM 1,000 – 3,000 INF Treaty MTCR (Bi-lateral; US-RU) Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile IRBM 3,000 – 5,500 (Multi-lateral) Intercontinental Ballistic Missile ICBM >5,500 START Treaty (Bi-lateral; US-RU) Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile SLBM Varies UNCLASSIFIED
  • 6. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missile Composition SIMPLE DESIGN: COMPLEX DESIGNS: SCUD variant MaRV MIRV PBV Warhead/RV Tankage: Oxidizer & Propellant Airframe Guidance Multiple Stages with Separating Warhead Motor UNCLASSIFIED
  • 7. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missiles: Propellant Types Propellant = Fuel + Oxidizer which produces Thrust Solid Propellant Liquid Propellant •! Basically – combustion chamber tubes •! Combines separately stored liquid chemicals, packed with a propellant that contains a fuel and an oxidizer, to produce thrust. both fuel and oxidizer blended together •! May be either cryogenic or hypergolic: uniformly. For example Shuttle SRBs: •! Cryogenic Propellant : very cold, liquefied •! Oxidizer -- ammonium perchlorate gases as fuel and oxidizer; Typical uses: (69.93%) SLV •! Fuel – Powdered aluminum (16%) •! Hypergolic Propellant: fuel and oxidizer ignite on contact with each other. No spark •! Catalyzer -- Iron oxidizer powder is needed. (0.07%) •! SCUD B/Shahab/No Dong: Inhibited •! Remainder is an epoxy binder that Red Fuming Nitric Acid (IRFNA) also burns (oxidizer) + Unsymmetrical Dimethylhydrazine (UDMH)(fuel) •! Shape of chamber controls burn via exposed propellant surface •! Advantages: highest energy per unit of fuel mass, variable thrust, and a restart capability •! Advantages: Stable, storable; simple – •! Disadvantages: Complex storage/plumbing; enables mobility; Precise injection metering; High capacity •! Disadvantages: Low tolerance for error pumps; Limited mobility and long term in manufacture, cannot shut down & storage; HIGHLY TOXIC (hypergolics) restart UNCLASSIFIED
  • 8. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missiles: Basing Mode - Fixed Ballistic missiles are deployed from either fixed or mobile bases •! Silo: Hardened, underground shelter for security and protection from elements •! Not immune to attack, difficult for liquid propellant missiles for long term storage •! Elevate to Launch: Semi-buried, better access to service missile, useful when terrain does not permit deeply buried facilities •! More vulnerable to attack •! Roll-out to Launch: Missiles stored in hard/deeply buried facility, rolled out to pre-surveyed launch pad for launch •! Missiles vulnerable until launch or returned to facility; gives away intentions (aids opponent I&W) and may lead to preemptive strike. UNCLASSIFIED
  • 9. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missiles: Basing Mode - Mobile Ballistic missiles are deployed from either fixed or mobile bases •! Rail: Permits dispersal across broad area; organic support; deployment of “heavy” missiles •! Unique identifiers of train set, maintenance shelters a weak point, costly infrastructure to build/maintain •! TEL/MEL: Most mobile of land-based modes, self-sufficient for solid propellant missiles; easier for CCDD •! Limitations on size/weight of missile and supporting road infrastructure/terrain •! SHIP-BASED: Asymmetric threat concept but on the margins •! Vessel size/stability vs. sea state directly impacts ability to successfully elevate, service, launch missile •! SLBM: Most survivable, assured 2nd strike. Employed by US, Russia, with China and India in development •! Very expensive to develop, build and operate •! ALBM: Allows launch closer to threat territory decreasing flight and warning times •! Limited by carrier aircraft size UNCLASSIFIED
  • 10. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missiles Defined •! Guided only during boost phase of flight •! Once powered flight is complete, only gravity affects remainder of trajectory •! Plus a little drag on reentry •! “Guided” has historically implied a relatively gentle means of controlling the state vector at thrust termination (Vbo) •! To a static target UNCLASSIFIED
  • 11. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missiles Defined: Reality In reality, ballistic missiles are not “ballistic” . . . there are many ways to change trajectory during and after boost •! Endo-atmospheric maneuvers •! Maneuvers in the atmosphere using aerodynamic surfaces on the booster or RV •! Used during boost, after boost or both •! Exo-atmospheric maneuvers •! Maneuvers outside the atmosphere using small liquid propellant thrusters or solid propellant motors •! Used after boost •! Generalized energy management system maneuvers •! Used on boosters that allow all stages to burn to depletion (i.e., solid fuel); missile pitches and yaws during boost phase to waste energy to control range •! Can result in a much less “gentle” guidance during boost phase Complicates Missile Warning And BMD Missions UNCLASSIFIED
  • 12. UNCLASSIFIED Endo-Atmospheric Maneuvers Booster Mounted •! Uses aerodynamic surfaces for lift Booster •! Takes advantage of atmosphere and missile’s velocity to “fly” further down range •! Can increase range by 100s of km over “basic” ballistic missile RV Mounted (MaRV) •! Ballistic missile performance and accuracy decrease as MaRV ranges >500 km if payload remains attached to booster •! Booster needs to be strengthened for re-entry •! Easier to separate payload after boost •! To make a MaRV, add moveable fins to separating payload •! Then maneuver in atmosphere during re-entry to: Avoid defenses; aero range extensions; add terminal guidance maneuvers •! All at large ranges UNCLASSIFIED
  • 13. UNCLASSIFIED Boost-Phase Maneuvering Generalized Energy Management Steering (GEMS) •! Many solid propellant missiles don’t shut down to control range, instead their motors burn to depletion •! Since thrust is constant, boosters pitch/yaw during powered flight to “waste” energy as required to make planned range. •! Examples: Trident I C4 SLBM and THAAD •! May be as simple as corkscrews or more complex maneuvers This is an example of GEMS …and this is not (THAAD launch) (failed BULAVA SLBM launch) UNCLASSIFIED
  • 14. UNCLASSIFIED Exo-Atmospheric Maneuvers Post-Boost Vehicles (PBVs) •! Use a small (typically restartable liquid propellant) upper stage motor •! Deploy MIRVs from a single booster •! Targets may be 100s of kms apart •! Deploy BMD countermeasures •! Correct boost phase errors during mid- course flight Inflatable decoy for Minuteman III UNCLASSIFIED
  • 15. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missile Threat •! Ballistic missile threat will continue to proliferate and grow in capacity and capability •! Increasingly seen as both an asymmetric threat and economical log-range/deep strike alternative to manned aircraft •! Threat countries are pursuing WMD warheads despite international sanctions and counter-proliferation efforts •! Future systems will incorporate active and passive countermeasures and a reduced logistical footprint •! Mobility and underground facilities will protect deployed missiles •! Growing mobile force using deception and denial Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures which complicate I&W and counter- targeting UNCLASSIFIED
  • 16. UNCLASSIFIED Worldwide Ballistic Missile Proliferation: 1990 UNCLASSIFIED
  • 17. UNCLASSIFIED Worldwide Ballistic Missile Proliferation: 2009 UNCLASSIFIED
  • 18. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missile Threat: North Korea •! Nation “of the greatest concern” according to 2010 BMDR •! Nuclear ambitions + long-range missiles •! Nuclear tests Oct 2006 and May 2009 •! Three attempted space launches, none successful •! 1998, 2006, 2009 •! 2006: Simultaneous with 6 x SRBM & MRBM launches •! 2009: Closest to success; demonstrated potential ICBM capabilities in 3-stage variant to reach CONUS •! Mobile IRBM under development and may be operational •! Extensive hardened/deeply buried supporting infrastructure and garrisons complicate I&W •! “Serial proliferator” of nuclear and ballistic missile technology and whole systems Toksa SCUD No Dong Musudan Musudan Taepo B/C ER Dong 2 120- 300- 1300 km 3000 – 4000 km (est) 15000 km 140 km 500 km (3-stage) UNCLASSIFIED
  • 19. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missile Threat: Iran •! Active indigenous program 2nd only to China in size/scope; nuclear program strongly condemned in 2011 IAEA report •! Majority of inventory – liquid propellant SRBMs •! Mobile force supported by growing hardened/ deeply buried infrastructure •! Aggressive solid propellant effort •! Fateh-110 SRBM and Ashura MRBM •! Two ASBM development programs •! Recently demonstrated as part of naval exercise •! Safir SLV – 2 successful on-orbit deliveries in three attempts •! Knowledge and technology developed would aid IR/ICBM program •! “Serial proliferator” – to other state and non-state actors SCUD Shahab-3 Ashura/ Safir Fateh-110 Shahab-3 BM-25 A/B/C ER Sejil (SLV) 300- 200 km 1300 km 2000 km 2500 km 2000 km 600 km UNCLASSIFIED
  • 20. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missile Threat: China •!Largest, most active and diverse ballistic missile program in the world •!Ballistic missile force developed and deployed for range of missions from nuclear deterrence to conventional precision strike •!Key part of A2/AD capabilities ICW large Taiwan Strait SAM & SRBM ASCM/LACM force Coverage. This map depicts notional coverage based on the •!2010 BMDR notes an imbalance of forces range of land and sea based missile systems, including advanced SAMs across Taiwan Straits primarily because of that China would likely employ in numbers of SRBM/MRBM deployed a Taiwan conflict. •! Est. 1,000 – 1200 •!ASBM in development or early deployment specifically to counter US CVBGs •!Non-signatory to MTCR but verbal pledge to some provisions UNCLASSIFIED
  • 21. UNCLASSIFIED Ballistic Missile Threat: Other Notables •! India: Ballistic missiles & nuclear weapons •! Active, indigenous program to build/deploy a range of ballistic missiles •! Ranges cover all of Pakistan and eventually all of China •! Pakistan: Ballistic missiles & nuclear weapons •! Not nearly as extensive as India – requires significant outside help •! Focused primarily on India •! Israel: Ballistic missiles & nuclear weapons (undeclared) •! SRBM to IRBM (Jericho II/III) •! Focused on Iran but able to range other regional threats •! Syria: Ballistic missiles & WMD program •! Primarily SRBM from Russia, North Korea and/or Iran •! Reports of sharing weapons and training with Hezbollah •! Russia: Treaty limited (INF) to weapons of 500km or less; party to MTCR which limits transfer of technology, materials, systems and knowledge •! Broad hints and statements since 2002 over possibly breaking with INF Treaty •! Extensive use of SRBMs in Georgian conflict (2008) UNCLASSIFIED
  • 22. UNCLASSIFIED Part II BMD Fundamentals UNCLASSIFIED
  • 24. UNCLASSIFIED BMD Doctrine UNDER RE-WRITE Guiding Pub: “Countering Air and Missile Threats” (JP 3-01, 5 Feb 2007) BMD included under Counterair Mission: !! “The counterair mission integrates both offensive and defensive operations, by all capable joint force components, to counter the air and missile threat by attaining and maintaining air superiority” (Chp 1) !! Counterair mission consists of Offensive Counterair (OCA) and Defensive Counterair (DCA) missions. !! Offensive Counterair: “The goal of OCA operations is to prevent the launch of enemy aircraft and missiles by destroying them and their overall supporting infrastructure prior to employment. This could mean preemptive action against an adversary” !! As applied to BMD – Attack Operations to include “attacks on missile sites,…,command and control (and) infrastructure” !! Defensive Counterair: “(A)ll defensive measures designed to detect, identify, intercept, and destroy or negate enemy forces attempting to penetrate or attack through friendly airspace” Includes active and passive measures !! As applied to BMD: !! Active Defense: “…direct defensive action taken to destroy, nullify, or reduce the effectiveness of air and missile threats against friendly forces and assets. It includes the use of aircraft, air defense weapons, missile defense weapons, electronic warfare (EW), sensors, and other available weapons/capabilities.” !! Passive Defense: “…all measures, other than active AMD, taken to minimize the effectiveness of hostile air and missile threats against friendly forces and assets. These measures include detection, warning, camouflage, concealment, deception, dispersion, and the use of protective construction.” Sometimes Referred To As “The Three Pillars of Missile Defense UNCLASSIFIED
  • 25. UNCLASSIFIED BMD: Attack Operations “…to prevent the launch of enemy . . . missiles by destroying them and their overall supporting infrastructure prior to employment. This could mean preemptive action against an adversary” In Theory: Preferred method of countering missile threats by reducing level of threat defensive forces face; AO range throughout enemy territory, are conducted at initiative of friendly forces, and normally are a high priority. In Practice: Not very successful where ballistic missile forces are concerned: •! Operation CROSSBOW (Dec 43 – Jun 44): Allied bombing campaign against V-1 and V-2 •! >25,000 sorties with > 36,000 tons of bombs dropped against production and support facilities including fixed launch pads •! Net result – V-1 strikes continued and V-2 strikes began against London summer ’44 •! Operation DESERT STORM (1992): Dedicated A-10 & SOF assigned to seek/destroy SCUD MEL/TEL •! 1/3 of the 2,000 daily sorties dedicated to SCUD hunting •! Net result – SOF team captured, 0 MEL/TEL struck, launches continued against Israel and single largest US casualty event of DS was via SCUD strike Major challenges to AO: ROE and real-time, actionable intelligence. Peenemunde V-2 test site UNCLASSIFIED
  • 26. UNCLASSIFIED BMD: Passive Defense “…all measures, other than active AMD, taken to minimize the effectiveness of hostile missile threats against friendly forces and assets.” •!Passive BMD improves survivability by reducing the likelihood of detection and targeting of friendly assets and thereby minimizing the potential effects of adversary reconnaissance, surveillance, and attack. •!Passive measures include detection, warning, camouflage, concealment, deception, dispersion, and the use of protective construction. •!Treaties and export control regimes may also be considered a form of passive defense UNCLASSIFIED
  • 27. UNCLASSIFIED BMD: Active Defense “…direct defensive action taken to destroy, nullify, or reduce the effectiveness of hostile missile threats against friendly forces and assets.” •! Active BMD includes the use of aircraft, air defense weapons, missile defense weapons, electronic warfare sensors, and other available weapons/capabilities. •! Missile defense is defined as “defensive measures designed to destroy attacking enemy missiles, or to nullify or reduce the effectiveness of such an attack.” •! Integration of systems enables defense in depth, with the potential for multiple engagements that increase the probability for success. •! AMD assets normally provide overlapping coverage, however, not all anti-air DCA assets have organic capability against BM; likewise, not all anti-BM DCA have anti-air and CM defense capabilities. •! Offensive counterair and defensive counterair operations use many of the same sensors, weapons, and command and control systems. UNCLASSIFIED
  • 28. UNCLASSIFIED BMD: Intercept Phases Apogee Vbo Mid-Course Phase Boost Phase Terminal Phase Launch to V (180-320 s bo ec) Launch to Apogee (< 1,000 se c) Launch to Im pact (times for ICBM flight ( >10,000 km from launch site) (~2,000 sec) UNCLASSIFIED
  • 29. UNCLASSIFIED BMD By Flight Phase: Boost •!In theory – most vulnerable part of flight •!Missile thrusting to gain acceleration •!Highly visible exhaust plume aids detection/ Note: As of Dec 2011, tracking ALTB to be mothballed •!3-5 minutes travel in Earth’s Atmosphere •! Damage to aerodynamic surfaces or airframe breach may induce fatal aerodynamic loads •! Challenges •!Compressed launch notification to intercept timeline/sensor challenges •!BMOA may be geographically too far to successfully complete endo-atmospheric intercept •!Countermeasures (hardening, counter- intercept platform defenses, GSM, TTP) All Active Boost Phase Intercept Programs are Proof of Concept Only UNCLASSIFIED
  • 30. UNCLASSIFIED BMD By Flight Phase: Ascent ASCENT PHASE: begins right after the missile’s powered flight and ends just prior to apogee. Benefits include: •! Earlier intercept in the battle space •! Optimizes a “shoot-look-shoot” tactic to defeat threat before countermeasure deployment •! Enables debris mitigation •! Reduces number of interceptors required to defeat a raid of threat missiles •! Reduces loading on remainder of BMDS architecture by not eliminating need to track and kill a threat reentry vehicle and associated objects, •! Reduces costs of maintaining significant number of expensive interceptors to destroy advanced countermeasures in a later phase of a threat missile’s flight •! Places a premium on early launch detection and tracking, emphasis on launch/engage on remote and need for longer- range interceptors •! Mostly PPT and paper CONOPS – if funded, capability won’t be fielded until late this decade/early 2020’s •! Significant technical, engineering, C2 and fiscal challenges Boost Phase + Ascent Phase = “Early Intercept” UNCLASSIFIED
  • 31. UNCLASSIFIED BMD By Flight Phase: Midcourse •! Offers longest decision space over course of flight – up to 20 to 30 min for ICBMs •! Missile coasting to apogee •! Exoatmospheric intercept •! Debris mitigation for WMD •! Challenges •! Detection/tracking: •! Non-thrusting cold body presents IR detection/ tracking challenges; •! Radar affected by horizon and position relative to flight path •! Discrimination: warhead(s) obscured by debris cloud and/or deployed PENAIDS •! PBV maneuvering, MiRV •! Salvage fusing effects •! Nuclear weapons effects from an offensive warhead fuzed to detonate when attacked Majority Of Current BMD Effort Focused In This Area UNCLASSIFIED
  • 32. UNCLASSIFIED BMD By Flight Phase: Terminal •!Missile re-enters atmosphere •!Atmosphere acts as a screen to strip away debris cloud/PENAIDS •!Challenges: •!RV free-falling at extremely high speeds (+22,500 KPH for ICBM RVs) •!High-g maneuvering by MaRVs •!Limited engagement space owing to speeds, fuzing and warhead altitude detonation or dispersion of submunitions •!Lower tier engagements must deal with debris mitigation from upper tier intercepts Most Demanding Environment On BMD Systems And Supporting C2 And C4I Infrastructures UNCLASSIFIED
  • 33. UNCLASSIFIED BMDS: System of Sensors and Shooters The Ballistic Missile Defense System is an integrated, “layered” architecture that provides multiple opportunities to destroy missiles and their warheads before they can reach their targets. The system’s architecture includes: •! Networked sensors and ground- and sea-based radars for target detection and tracking; •! Ground- and sea-based interceptor missiles for destroying a ballistic missile using either the force of a direct collision, called “hit-to-kill” technology, or an explosive blast fragmentation warhead; •! A Command, Control, Battle Management, and Communications Network providing the warfighter with the needed links between the sensors and interceptor missiles. The BMDS Is Designed To Counter Ballistic Missiles Of All Ranges UNCLASSIFIED
  • 34. UNCLASSIFIED Ground-Based: Midcourse Defense •! GMD: “Engage and destroy limited intermediate- and long-range ballistic missile threats in the midcourse battle space to protect the United States” •! Elements: •! Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI): Three-stage, solid fuel booster with an EKV (Exo-atmospheric Kill Vehicle) •! Ground Systems: Includes redundant fire control nodes, interceptor launch facilities, and a complex communications network for planning, directing and controlling GMD element •! Current Configuration: •! GBIs: emplaced at Fort Greely, Alaska and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. A total of 30 interceptors were deployed at the end of 2010. •! Fire control, battle management, planning, tasking and threat analysis take place via a dual-node, human-in-control interface located in Fort Greely, Alaska (49th MD Battalion) and Colorado Springs, Colorado (100th MDBE) •! GND C2 via GMD communications network, a secure data and voice communications system using both SATCOM and fiber optic cabling for long-haul communications. Cue & track UNCLASSIFIED
  • 35. UNCLASSIFIED Ground-Based: Terminal Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD): a globally transportable, rapidly deployable capability to intercept and destroy ballistic missiles inside or outside the atmosphere during their final, or terminal, phase of flight. •! Land-based, capable of shooting down a ballistic missile inside and just outside the atmosphere w/hit-to-kill technology. •! Procurement: First two Batteries fielded at Fort Bliss, TX. Total hardware for Battery #1 & #2 include: •! 6 Launchers, 2 Fire Control & Communications components, 2 AN/TPY-2 Radars, and 48 Interceptors. Delivery of first production interceptors began in March 2011. Batteries 3 and 4 on contract March 2011 with delivery and fielding to start in 2013. •! Dec 2011: Agreement to sell battery to UAE PATRIOT Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3): Operational and fielded by the U.S. Army. •! Procurement: The Army is responsible for production and further development of the PAC-3 and the Medium Extended Air Defense System; the Missile Defense Agency remains responsible for the Ballistic Missile Defense System and PAC-3 interoperability and integration efforts. UNCLASSIFIED
  • 36. UNCLASSIFIED Sea-Based BMD: Aegis BMD •! Aegis BMD: Describes the entire program of sea-based BMD but primarily focused on the mid-course intercept of SRBMs, MRBMs some IRBMs and in latter versions, a limited capability against certain ICBMs •! Modifications and upgrades to the Aegis Weapons System (sensors, hardware and software – currently ver. 3.6.1) and the SM-3 BLK 1A interceptor. •! 24 Deployed/forward-based CG/DDGs currently configured (includes one developmental ship, USS LAKE ERIE) •! Missions: •! Aegis LRS&T: Forward deployed Long Range Surveillance & Tracking support to GMD for Homeland Defense •! Aegis BMD: Exo-atmospheric, mid-course intercept and endo-atmospheric, terminal intercept •! First Aegis BMD Patrol (EUCOM AOR): 2011 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 •! Aegis Ashore: Shore-based program to support PAA derived from the Aegis BMD ship-based program, using BMD-cap. 23 28 32 36 38 41 42 43 43 43 Ships the SM-3 BLK IIA and a land-based only version for long- range intercept of ICBMs. SM-3 111 129 155 201 263 341 428 500 513 515 Inventory +TBD +TBD +TBD +TBD UNCLASSIFIED
  • 37. UNCLASSIFIED Sea-Based BMD: Ship Mods NFIC-CA has critical role in IAMD (cruise- and TBM) mission The caveat: These plans all depend on outcome of major program cuts and revisions DoD-wide UNCLASSIFIED
  • 38. UNCLASSIFIED Sea-Based BMD: SBT Sea-based Terminal: Provides a sea- based, endo-atmospheric intercept capability for a limited threat set. •!Initially comprised of 72 modified SM-2 Blk IV deployed on BMD configured ships with the Aegis BMD 3.6.1 system. •!Blast frag warhead, not HTK •!Increasingly capable versions of SBT will be fielded beginning with Increment I SBT (IOC 2014) which uses the SM-6 with BMD 5.0 and Increment II SBT (IOC 2018) which will debut with BMD 5.1 SBT: Sea-Based Terminal Kill vs. SRBMs UNCLASSIFIED
  • 39. UNCLASSIFIED Part III BMD Planning and Execution UNCLASSIFIED
  • 40. UNCLASSIFIED Navy BMD Pedigree National guidance and policy: 22 July 1999: 16 Dec 2002: March 2006: June 2008: 17 Sept 2009: “Field National Missile NSPD-23 - NSS – “Field NDS – “Missile more of most capable Defense Act of 1999 National Policy BMD to protect defenses can theater MD systems (Public Law 106-38) on Ballistic US from rogue defend against to protect our forces Missile Defense states” attack should and those of allies.” deterrence fail” DIRECTS DOD/JCS guidance: Guide/Influence MDA January 15 March 2007 – 15 Dec 2008 – CHARTER 2002 – Missile Defense NAVY BOD MDA Executive Board Membership Charter (MDEB) Memo 2010 Established 2012 Navy guidance: Guide/Influence October 2007: A Sept 2009: CNO Guidance Naval Fleet Cooperative 2010 – “Issue NOC that links Navy Operating TACPRO Strategy for 21st CS21 to operations and force Strategic Concept Century structure with guidance from Guidance Seapower QDR 10 and BMDR 10” PR-11 (NOC) TACMEMOs Classified •! Limit Regional Conflict •! Deterrence “…preventing wars CS-21 •! Deter major Power War CS-21 •! Sea Control is as important as Strategic •! Win our nation’s Wars Core •! Power Projection •! Homeland defense •! Forward Presence winning wars.” Imperatives •! Cooperative Relationships Capabilities •! HA/DR •! Prevent or Contain Local Disruptions •! Maritime Security UNCLASSIFIED
  • 41. UNCLASSIFIED The Ballistic Missile Defense Review (BMDR) The BMDR - Congressionally mandated and guided by Presidential directive, released in Feb 2010 for the purpose of conducting a comprehensive review of US BMD policies, strategies, plans and programs. Established Policy Priorities: 1.!U.S. will continue to defend the homeland against the threat of limited ballistic missile attack. 2.! U.S. will defend against regional missile threats to US forces, while protecting allies and partners and enabling them to defend themselves. 3.!Before new capabilities are deployed, they must undergo testing that enables assessment under realistic conditions. 4.!The commitment to new capabilities must be fiscally sustainable over the long term. 5.! US BMD capabilities must be flexible enough to adapt as threats change. 6.!US will seek to lead expanded international efforts for missile defense. “This review. . . will result in an enhanced defense of the United States and its forces, allies, and partners from the danger of ballistic missiles wherever and whenever they threaten us.” UNCLASSIFIED
  • 42. UNCLASSIFIED Defense of the Homeland “The United States will…” •! Maintain readiness…develop capabilities at Fort Greely, AK (FGA) and Vandenberg AFB, CA (VAFB) •! Complete the 2nd field of 14 silos at FGA as a hedge •! Deploy new sensors in Europe to improve cueing for missiles launched at the US from Iran or elsewhere in Middle East •! Invest in further development of the SM-3 for future land-based use as ICBM threat matures •! Increase investments in sensors and early- intercept kill systems to defeat countermeasures •! Pursue new enhancements…and other hedging strategies including continued development of a two-staged ground-based interceptor UNCLASSIFIED
  • 43. UNCLASSIFIED Phased Adaptive Approach “A key objective (for regional defense) is to leverage recent successes in regional missile defense to further expand that capability at low risk.” •! Near-term capabilities •! Increase procurement of proven systems (SM-3, THAAD, An/TPY-2) •! Improve already developed technology •! “Aegis Ashore” – 2015 epoch: land-based Aegis BMD weapons system including land-based SM-3 variant •! SM-3 BLK IB, BLK IIA, BLK IIB/NGAM •! Develop/deploy enhanced C2BMC •! Long-term Capabilities •! Develop SM-3 BLK IIA/IIB with higher Vbo and divert, providing greater regional coverage •! BLK IIB will have some early-intercept capability against long-range missiles •! “Engage on remote” – enables interceptor “Ballistic missile defenses help support U.S. security commitments engageability at greater ranges using off-board to allies and partners. They provide reassurance that the United sensors States will stand by those commitments despite the growth in the •! Develop persistent overhead sensors to detect/ track military potential of regional adversaries.” large raid sizes over entire trajectories from space UNCLASSIFIED
  • 44. UNCLASSIFIED PAA Implemented: Europe Sep 2009 decision followed SECDEF/JCS recommendation to revise Sept 2007 deployment plan •! Phase 1 (2011): Existing missile defense systems deployed to defend against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. •! Protection of portions of southern Europe with sea-based BMD supported by new TPY-2 site in Turkey •! Phase 2 (2015): Fielding enhanced capabilities -- SM-3 Block IB and additional sensors. •! Phase 2 will include land-based SM-3s in southern 2009 CONCEPT Europe expanding coverage to additional NATO allies. •! Phase 3 (2018): Coverage against medium- and intermediate-range threats improved with 2nd land-based SM-3 site, located in northern Europe, and deployment of SM-3 BLK IIA •! Extends coverage to all NATO allies in Europe. •! Phase 4 (2020): adds capability against a potential ICBM launched from the Middle East against the United States. •! Deploys SM-3 BLK IIB/NGAM will be available. UNCLASSIFIED
  • 45. UNCLASSIFIED BMD: International Participation “The U.S. is committed to working intensively with allies and partners…” Per the BMDR, international cooperation is focused on: •!Development and deployment of joint and/or complementary capabilities •!Technological and industrial cooperation Current Initiatives: •! Europe: implement PAA in a NATO context •! East Asia and Middle East: strengthen cooperative relationships in bilateral frameworks •! Arrow development program w/Israel •! THAAD sale to UAE •! Renew cooperation with Russia •! Conduct a substantive and sustained dialogue with China UNCLASSIFIED
  • 46. UNCLASSIFIED BMD Planning Lexicon •! Defended Area (DA): Defended area is the portion of the territory protected against long-range missile attacks; •! Critical Asset List (CAL): A list compiled by the JFC w/input from components of assets requiring theater level protection •! Organized by phase of operations and prioritized •! Defended Asset List (DAL): a list of those assets on the CAL that receive theater level asset protection. •! Each defended asset on the DAL should be prioritized as requiring active air defense or appropriate passive measures if that is all that is available. •! Launch Area Denied (LAD): Refers to the collection of threat countries from which the DA is protected; •! Probability of Engagement Success (Pes): The probability that all attacking warheads are destroyed, derived from the probabilities associated with missile defense functions like detection, discrimination, and hit-to-kill; •! Raid size breakpoint: The maximum number of warheads the system can realistically defeat in a single engagement. This metric is highly dependent on interceptor inventory. UNCLASSIFIED
  • 47. UNCLASSIFIED BMD Planning Lexicon Point Defense (PAC 3) DEFENDED AREA Area Defense (Aegis BMD/THAAD) Critical Asset List Launch Area Denied UNCLASSIFIED
  • 48. UNCLASSIFIED BMD & Joint Doctrine for C2 Architecture •!The JFACC / Area Air Defense Commander (AADC) is the supported commander for Counter-Air operations to include BMD – The JFMCC has a supporting role (JP 3-01) •!In mature theaters, the JFC will normally designate the JFACC as the AADC and Airspace Control Authority (JP 3-01) •!Decentralized execution remains a basic C2 tenet of joint operations. The level of control used will depend on the nature of the operation or task, the risk or priority of its success, and the associated comfort level of the CDR. (JP 1) •!BMD engagement timelines may dictate that engagement authority be held by the ship’s CO for optimal employment of BMD-capable ships •!Strategic considerations may drive engagement authority to be held at the highest level in some situations (JP 1) UNCLASSIFIED
  • 49. UNCLASSIFIED Navy C2 Architecture Planning Factors •! JFMCC is the persistent maritime IAMD planning and execution command echelon •! IAMD ships are multi-mission platforms that are most effectively controlled by a Maritime Commander •! A Maritime Commander will retain OPCON / TACON of multi-mission ships •! Provides most effective asset management for AADC •! Maximizes warfighting capacity and capability across all component commanders •! Optimizes logistics support •! Ensures asset protection and safety of navigation •! When the size and scope of the mission dictates, JFMCC will recommend a RADC to support the AADC for optimum employment of multi-mission ships Multi-mission Ships Are Most Effectively Controlled By Maritime Commander UNCLASSIFIED
  • 50. UNCLASSIFIED Integrated Air & Missile Defense C2 JFC / JTF Supporting OPCON / TACON Lines of Coordination Engagement Authority JFACC JFMCC JFLCC AADC TAAMDCOORD DAADC CRC CTF IAMD RADC RADC RADC AAMDC ADAFCO Maritime Airborne Land-based Sensors and Sensors and Sensors and Shooters Shooters Shooters •! JFMCC is a supporting commander to JFACC/AADC for IAMD •! Navy retains OPCON and TACON of multi-mission IAMD ships •! When the size and scope of the mission dictates, JFMCC will recommend a RADC to support the AADC for optimum employment of multi-mission ships UNCLASSIFIED
  • 51. UNCLASSIFIED IAMD C2 Vision: The Reality UNCLASSIFIED
  • 52. UNCLASSIFIED TF Integrated Air & Missile Defense •!JFMCC conducts operations at the Operational level from the Maritime Operations Center (MOC) •!Commander, Task Force Integrated Air and Missile Defense (TF IAMD) is the JFMCC’s tactical execution agent for the air and missile defense mission •!CTF IAMD may serve as the RADC for the maritime BMD fight •!In most cases, CTF IAMD would reside at the MOC where the supporting integrated planning and C2 resides CTF IAMD is JFMCC’s Tactical Execution Agent for IAMD UNCLASSIFIED
  • 53. UNCLASSIFIED What This Means For The Joint Community •!Joint Force Commanders have a consistent path to maritime IAMD capability in every theater •!Optimized maritime contribution to theater- level plans and operations •!Supports JP 3-01 for IAMD C2 Theater IAMD C2 Elements •!Identifies maritime node to support JFACC / Joint Force Commander ACC MCC LCC AADC development and execution of the Area USFF 263rd NORTHCOM 1st AF Air Defense Plan AAMDC •!CTF IAMD plans for maritime IAMD SOUTHCOM 12th AF C4F N/A •!CTF IAMD, when designated as RADC plan, EUCOM 3rd AF C6F 357th AMDD coordinate, and execute engagements 32nd CENTCOM 9th AF C5F AAMDC 94th PACOM 13th AF C7F AAMDC 94th USFK 7th AF C7F AAMDC The Path to Maritime IAMD Capability is Through the JFMCC UNCLASSIFIED
  • 54. UNCLASSIFIED BMD Challenges Countermeasures •!PENAIDS: Chaff, decoys •!Terminal maneuvers •!Multiple warheads/HGV •!Salvage fuzing Debris •!Upper stages, separation debris, “chuffing,” other intercepts Adversary TTP •!Attack BMD system •!Trajectory shaping/depressed trajectories •!Raids •!Mass launches/Timed arrival Positional •!Location of sensors/shooters relative to BMOA Geo-political •!Host-nation concerns/issues UNCLASSIFIED
  • 56. UNCLASSIFIED Discussion UNCLASSIFIED
  • 58. UNCLASSIFIED BMD: Tracking and Cueing Vz Area Of Uncertainty (AOU) Full Covariance: Space track report transmitted by a BMD platform: Aegis Track Covariance Position: X-Y-Z Cartesian coordinate system w/origin @ Earth center Vy Velocity: Along X, Y & Z axes. Predicts future BM position. Vx Full covariance provides a more reliable AOU around the current and future positions of the space track, enabling construction of a search pattern that efficiently utilizes sensor resources by limiting the search only to the most probable area of the sky (Earth center) UNCLASSIFIED