Here's a presentation I gave on 11 November to Renaissance Northwest's Curating the Future Conference, held at the People's History Museum in Manchester.

2. Discover your Real lives. Wythenshawe.
new favourite place...

8. headstretcher.com

9. Old stuff.
New pitch.
Steve Connor

12. “Partnership is the suppression
of mutual loathing in the pursuit
of public funding.”

13. Successful partnerships...
- Agreement that a - The development of a - Good communication,
partnership is necessary. shared vision of what perhaps aided by a
might be achieved. facilitator.
- Respect and trust
between different - Time to build the - Collaborative decision-
interests. partnership. making, with a
commitment to achieving
- The leadership of a - Shared mandates or
respected individual or agendas. consensus.
individuals. - Effective organisational
- The development of
management.
- Commitment of key compatible ways of
interests developed working, and flexibility.
through a clear and open
process.
Courtesy of David Wilcox. www.partnerships.org.uk

14. Failed partnerships...
- A history of conflict - Unequal and
among key interests. unacceptable balance of
power and control.
- One partner manipulates
or dominates. - Key interests missing from
the partnership.
- Lack of clear purpose.
- Unrealistic goals. - Hidden agendas.
- Differences of philosophy - Financial and time
and ways of working. commitments outweigh
the potential benefits.
- Lack of communication.
Courtesy of David Wilcox. www.partnerships.org.uk

16. Museums in partnership
- National and core - Partnerships with public
museums. service providers.
- Promotional partnerships - Working with educators
- Creative Tourist. and skills development
bodies.
- Partnerships with the
private sector. - Local Enterprise
Partnerships.
- Working with local
communities - a Big - Regional Development
Society? Fund.
- Partnership clusters and
rationalisation.

17. Your partnership programme
- Get advocates in - Understand - Be creative and see - Deliver and shout
your corner partners’ priorities beyond funding about it
- Every museum needs - Think not what your - Partnerships aren’t - It’s not the time to
advocates to help put partners can do for just about formal hide your successes,
them on the radar the museum, but applications and build your case,
and access key what the museum chasing funding pots. demonstrate your
decision makers. Be can do for its value and tell the
networked and partners. people that matter
knowledgeable. how the museum is a
good and profitable
investment.

18. Now, the small matter of
saving the world.

19. Can
museums
save the
world?

20. In the last quarter century...
Redefining Prosperity: UK Sustainable Development Commission 2009

21. In the last quarter century...
Global Economy 100%
Carbon Emissions 40%
Global Ecosystems -60%
Redefining Prosperity: UK Sustainable Development Commission 2009

22. We (the UK) are consuming
three planets each.

23. What makes us happy?
Redefining Prosperity: UK Sustainable Development Commission 2009

24. What makes us happy?
Partner/spouse and family relationships 47%
Health 24%
A nice place to live 8%
Money and finances 7%
Religious or spiritual life 6%
Community and friends 5%
Work fulfilment 2%
Don’t know 1%
Redefining Prosperity: UK Sustainable Development Commission 2009

25. The debt burden
- Personal debt in the UK more than
doubled from 1990 to today.
- Even during the 2008 recession, it
was growing at the rate of £1m
every 11 minutes.
- In 2008 it reached £1.5 trillion,
higher than our GDP .

26. “Growth for the sake of
growth is the philosophy of
the cancer cell.”
Edward Abbey

27. “Our commonest economic error is
the assumption that production
and trade are our only practical
activities.
“We need to say what many of us
know in experience: that the life of
man, and the business of society,
cannot be confined to these ends;
that the struggle to learn, to
describe, to understand, to
educate is a central and necessary
part of our humanity.”
Raymond Williams
Raymond Williams, Communications, 1962

28. My pitch
- Happiness and wealth fell - Non-materialist forms of - Reaching people, and
out with each other more social capital and fighting for headspace, is
than half a century ago. experience are part of the a core strength of the
solution. cultural sector.
- We need to ‘reboot’
economics and find a way - Culture and the
to achieve prosperity experience economy can
without growth. win us back from
materialism.

29. My pitch
- Culture creates the places - Innovation must no longer - Culture can (help to) save
and spaces that people be the preserve of the world.
want to be in, fostering a consumerist ‘novelty’ and
more compelling and desire but has to become
competitive identity. part of how we craft our
collective future.

30. Two images that capture
my thoughts.

33. Creating a sense of place.

34. Difference, distinction, diversity
- No two museums are - In many cases they are - As an enhanced level of
completely alike, and in guided, driven and funded localism guides our
fact those that thrive are by local partners, collective future,
markedly unique and including local Museums can play a
compelling. government. prominent role in this new,
localised future.
- Rooted in the cities, towns - They have a level of
and neighbourhoods of accountability, a - Museums are a vital part
our region, museums have democratic and open of the tourism mix. People
a critical role in building a communication with the are pulled towards these
greater sense of place, a populace. They are places ‘cultural magnets’ for the
stronger local identity and and spaces for people. stories they tell and for
a richer, more rewarding the experiences they offer.
visitor experience.

35. Steps to take
- Gather your evidence. - Make the business case. - Image is everything
- Collect the information that - Add value to your - Is your museum genuinely
you will need to ensure that proposition by connecting it reflective of where the future
you are seen as a key to the fortunes of the private lies for your town or city, or
partner in developing the sector. even of your current local
competitive identity. sense of place? If not,
- Four. Set out a route to a
embark on your own
- Connect to the place bolder future.
makers. process of reinvention.
- If your city or local area has
- Seek them out, meet them, future vision, how can you
and make your case. as a museum play a part in
creating that future brand?

36. SOCIETY
big

37. WHO
ATE ALL THE
QUANGOS?

38. Taking part...
- 66% of adults took part in
two or more different
cultural or sport sectors
- 79% had visited historic
environment sites
- 65% had visited a museum,
gallery or archive
- 54% used a public library
DCMS Taking Part Survey 2009

39. The value of ‘taking part’
- Mental wellbeing (or happiness!)
- Social cohesion and stronger communities
- Volunteering and engagement
- Lifelong learning
- Mass innovation and inspiration

40. Cultural solutions:
- Building social capital
- An ‘alternative hedonism’
- Changing values and shifting behaviours
- Reducing our carbon footprint
- Stronger places and competitive identity
- Genuine innovation
- A happier world

41. Coming soon. Other
insights from the NW Fed.

42. a culture of happiness new models
opportunity & wellbeing of business

43. See the future.

47. SCENARIO
LIMITS
A
B PREDICTED
C
FUTURE
D
SCENARIO
LIMITS

48. WHAT FUTURE?

49. ONE EXAMPLE

50. WE’RE GETTING ON A BIT.

51. 2008
2033

52. Our Changing Age
15.00
11.25
Millions
7.50
3.75
0 2008
0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75-84 85 & over 2033

53. Support
40
30
THERE WILL BE MORE OF
20 US, AND FEWER OF THEM
10
0
2008 2033
Working age
Pension age
ONS 2009

54. WE MIGHT NEED TO MAKE OUR
LABELS A BIT BIGGER.

56. TRENDWATCHING

58. How we’re getting hitched
120
90
Thousands per year
Religious ceremonies
Civil ceremonies in approved premises
HAVE YOU GOT ONE
60
OF THESE?
30
1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
ONS 2009

59. SCRAMJET 3D PRINTING PEAK OIL

60. A QUICK TRIP TO CALIFORNIA

61. TOMORROW
IN THE
GOLDEN STATE
MUSEUMS AND THE FUTURE OF CALIFORNIA
A GUIDE FOR FORECASTING AND PLANNING

62. A GUIDE FOR FORECASTING AND PLANNING
Elizabeth Merritt, Founding Director, Center for the Future of Museums,
American Association of Museums
Garry Golden, Director of Foresight Strategy, Oliver Kaizen
Produced by the California Association of Museums
and The Center for the Future of Museums, American Association of Museums

63. A resource guide...
- Based around a working session, “forecasting the future of
california museums,” held in Los Angeles on May 25, 2010 at the
Annual Meeting of the American Association of Museums.
- Center for the Future of Museums led participants in an
exploration of the future - the next 30 years and beyond.
- Led by futurist Garry Golden of Oliver Kaizen, a next generation
communications agency focused on the future of mobility and
infrastructure.

64. Key trends
- Economic/political - People/communities - Technology - Environment
- Shift in global power. - Not enough highly - Location-based - Water scarcity
educated workers to connectivity via
- Increasing inequality - World has already
in distribution of meet the demands of ubiquitous hand-held reached peak
wealth. new economy jobs. devices. production of
- Old economy jobs - Greater income gap - Managed identities, conventional oil.
shrink while new between rich and relationships and
- Carbon emissions.
economy jobs (health, poor. shared experiences in
information, nano- the physical world.
- Ethnic diversity
and bio-technology)
- ‘Echo boomers’ or
grow. digital natives...

65. Five scenarios...
- SCENARIO 1 The distributed museum in california
- SCENARIO 2 The 21st century Silver rush—california’s creative ageing industry
- SCENARIO 3 calibalkanization
- SCENARIO 4 a revolution in education—learning moves Beyond the Schools
- SCENARIO 5 The universal culture Pass—Set museums free!

66. Scenario 1 - The Distributed Museum
- Underlying Trends: - Increased desire to create - Disruptive Event:
walkable communities,
- An increase in technological - A series of terrorist attacks
tools and platforms that helping to conserve energy, on public venues—
support a “Maker” or do-it- lower the environmental museums, sporting events,
yourself culture. impact of transportation and concerts and festivals—
increase quality of life. starting in 2015.
- Pop-up retailing, moveable
culture. - Increased tendency of
municipalities to pressure
- New technologies (social museums to pay property
and creative) that support a tax, or make payments in
more participatory culture lieu of property tax.
and foster an expectation of
shared authority.

67. Scenario 2 - The 21st Century Silver Rush
- Underlying Trends: - Four out of five Baby - Disruptive Event:
Boomers see work as
- Elderly Californians (age - Passage of Proposition
65+) are the fastest growing playing a role in their 1096, reforming the state’s
population group in the retirement years, with only real estate laws.
state. 14% of the state’s 20% anticipating retiring
residents will be 65 or older and not working at all (aarP).
by 2020—and 18% by - People increasingly want to
2030. “age in place” rather than
consigning themselves to
- Biomedical advances
continue to improve the retirement homes.
ability of seniors to remain
mobile and active.

68. Scenario 3 - Calibalkanization
- Underlying Trends: - Political scientists have - Disruptive Event:
identified signs of a new
- There is a dramatically - Severe national recession
increasing gap in wealth segregation by political starting in 2016
between richest and beliefs.
poorest. The percentage of - Progressive cuts to local
american wealth held by the and state funding of basic
top 1% of the population fell services due to financial
as low as 20% in 1976, and stress.
rose to 35% by 2010.

69. Scenario 4 - A revolution in Education
- Underlying Trends: - Rise of the virtual - Continued cuts in state
classroom, interactive funding for primary and
- Growth in home-schooling
and alternatives to public content over the web. secondary education.
schools. - Increasing desire for - Disruptive Event:
specialized curricula to
- Disillusionment with - Election of a progressive
standardized tests, more accommodate religious, governor able to rally the
expectations for outcomes- cultural or political beliefs. legislature to pass radical
based learning, reduced - Rising awareness of the educational reform
trust in public school need to provide multi-modal
system. learning in order to provide
equitable education to
diverse learners.

70. Scenario 5 - The Universal Culture Pass
- Underlying Trends: - Continued economic stress - Disruptive Events:
and the continued rise in
- Rising public expectation - Establishment of a California
(reinforced by the wealth of price of traditional certification board for
free content on the internet) entertainments. cultural nonprofits.
that entertainment and - Increased use of portable, - Mandated free admission to
information be free. distributed payment all state museums.
systems.

71. UNLOCK YOUR INNER...