Z Score,T Score, Percential Rank and Box Plot Graph
Ob slides - decision making hold(1)
1. M 05 Decision Making
• “Greatness is not a function of circumstance.
Greatness, it turns out, is largely a matter of
conscious choice, and discipline.” – Jim Collins
• “The quality of decision is like the well-timed swoop
of a falcon which enables it to strike and destroy its
victim.” – Sun Tzu
• “Whenever you see a successful business, someone
once made a courageous decision.” – Peter Drucker
2. • The next slide provides a model of some of
the issues involved in making a decision.
• These are not items that are on the surface –
they are hidden inside of us and yet they
impact our questions, thoughts, ideas, and the
way we decide.
4. Decision Making Styles
• Decide
– You decide alone and “announce” or “sell” it
• Consult Individually
– Present it individually to all and then decide
• Consult Group
– Present collectively and then decide
• Facilitate
– Present, facilitate, define the problem and boundaries
– Seek concurrence
• Delegate
– Permit group decision within prescribed limits
5. ….. to consider
(so many variables)
• Responsibilities
• Power
• Vulnerability
• Dilemmas
• Pressures
• Loneliness
• Analyzing
• Not independent, solitary events
6. ……. to consider…
• Not just logical analysis & problem solving
• Social process
• Unending stream of decisions
• Communication
• Perceptions
• Information
• Experience
8. Critical pieces of decision making
• Determining how the problem is to be solved,
not necessarily the solution.
• Determining how much data is needed.
• Understanding the background that lead to
this point
9. What doesn’t work
• Persuasion
– Selling expert opinions to convince
• Edicts
– Directives that announce decisions
– Depletes “social credits”
10. Models of Decision Making
• Rational Decision-Making
• Bounded Rationality
• Garbage Can
11. Rational Decision-Making
• Assumption that all facts are knowable
• Process similar to problem solving
– Define the problem
– Develop and weight criteria
– List alternatives
– Select the best alternative
– Implement
– Evaluate
• Question: Is it possible to know all the facts?
12. Bounded Rationality
• People are restricted:
– in the information they have ,
– limit their searches,
– settle for less than optimal solutions.
• Assumptions
– Satisficing – accepting the first, minimally acceptable solution
– Comfortableness without all the alternatives
– Judgmental shortcuts – called “heuristics”
– Alternatives fall within the bounds of current moral & ethical
standards
13. Garbage Can
• Organization – metaphorically described as a
“garbage can”
• Floating in the GC are
– Problems, Participants, Solutions, Choice
opportunities
– If they connect – a decision results
• Assumptions
– Haphazard
– Chaotic
– Unpredictable
– Sheer luck
14. Common Decision Biases
• Anchoring and adjusting
• (the first information is overweighted)
• Representativeness
• (does this resemble another event?)
• Availability
• (what we remember easily)
• Overconfidence
• (Unrealistically optimistic views)
• Bounded Awareness
• (perception narrows –thus limiting information needed)
• Emotional Involvement
• (belief in a more positive outcome)
• Self-serving Reasoning
• (credit for success & avoiding blame for failure)
15. Tools
• Decision Trees
» Significance
» Level of Commitment
» Leader Expertise
» Likelihood of Commitment
» Group – Support, Expertise, Competence
16. Issues ( +/- ), to consider
• Zone of Indifference
• http://www.examiner.com/article/helping-employees-work-
within-the-zone-of-indifference
• Groupthink
• http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newLDR_82.htm
• Escalation of commitment
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment
17. Reality
(what happens…)
• Rationality
• Otherwise we believe that people make irrational decisions.
We may not understand their rationality – but to them it is
rational
• Intuitive consideration
• We pull all our experiences together without even knowing
it and use that data as well as the data around the proplem
• Combine to provide decisions
• Decision making is complex – not just for us but for everyone
18. The Literature Suggests…..
• There are four (4) guidelines to making better
decisions:
– Personally manage your decision making.
» This isn’t something that you can delegate
– Search for understanding.
» Make sure you know what is at stake
– Establish a direction with objectives.
» Objectives help you to know what you really want
– Manage the social and political forces
» Always know your clear rational