Crude Oil Tgt 87$ and then 100$ Very Soon......

1. CD CommoSearch
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Daily Research -Report
1-
Date 15th October,10
Turnover of 14.10.10 Commodity Rate Rate Up / Down
15.10.10 14.10.10
Exchange Turnover ( Cr.) Gold $ 1379.70 $ 1377.60 $ 2.10 $
MCX 49743 Silver $ 24.60 $ 24.43 $ 0.17 $
NCDEX 4884 Crude $ 82.77 $ 82.69 $ 0.08 $
USDINR 44.1325 44.2475 - 0.1150
Crude
Fundamentally we can see that Crude Oil stocks are
falling from past two weeks which is a positive sign
for crude prices to move up. Also the demand for the
commodity is stable which will support prices at
lower levels. In next few months we can see good
upside movemnt in the commodity because of low
inventories.
Technically when we see, Crude has broken a major
resistance of 83$ in NYMEX, prices are sustaining
above these levels which is a positive sign for crude.
We can see that Crude prices can touch levels of
87$ and on break of that 99 to 100$ very soon. As
the prices have given sharp upmove of 10 to 12$ in
past some weeks so there might be some correction
till 80$ in next few days. As the trend is positive so
one should utilize these corrections as buying
opportunity for the target of 87 $.
In long term we are expecting Crude prices to touch
levels of 100$ in Comex, any small correction will be
a good buy opportunity for the targets of 87$ and if
the prices are able to break 87$ on closing basis
then we can see Crude prices touching levels of
100$ in next few months. In MCX once if prices are
able to break 3870 levels on closing basis then we
might see levels of 4000 and 4200 Rs. in next one to
two months i.e. a return of approx 20% from current
levels. We maintain a bullish view in Crude.
Maize
Maize prices are up globally because of supply concerns. US is world’s top producer and
exporter of maize, where prices are near two year high on expectations that US harvest is not
going to meet strong global demand. Prices of maize might continue to rise for some more days
because of tight supplies and good demand. Overall if we take longterm view then, Maize prices
can start to come down from the month of November or December because of new crop supplies
from North India. Also maize output in 2010-11 kharif season was projected to be higher at 14.03
million tonnes compared to 12 million tonnes a year ago.
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2. CD CommoSearch
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Daily Research -Report
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Date 15th October,10
Technically we can seen that, Maize prices can give a
small upmove in short term till 1120 or 1150 levels but
overall sell on rise will be a good strategy for long term
as the prices can fall from 1150 level to 1000 and 900
Rs. in next four to five months. In short term we can take
buy positions with a stop loss of 980 Rs. for the targets
of 1080 and 1150 levels, for next one month prices of
maize can move in a range of 1000 to 1150 levels. From
November Mid we can see selling pressure in the
commodity, so any small upmove in the prices will be a
good opportunity to sell for the targets of 900 Rs., in
next few months. In short term for next one month, we
will buy Maize futures for the target of 1080 and once
when prices move above 1100 levels then we will
maintain a bearish view in commodity for next four to
five months. Any rise above 1100 Rs. should be utilised
as selling opportunity for the targets of 900 Rs.
Crude Chart
LIGHT CRUDE CONTINUOUS 1000 BARRELS [NYMEX] (83.2300, 84.1200, 82.2100, 82.6900, -0.32000) 90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
Relative Strength Index (63.9511) 80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
Volume (0)
1
0
-1
8 15 22 29 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 31 8 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 7 14 21 4 11 19 1 8 16 22 1 8 15 22 29 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 1 14 21 28 6 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 20 27 4 11 18 25
June July August September October November December 2010 February March April May June July August September October
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Daily Research -Report
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Date 15th October,10
Daily Trading Range
 Crude today’s trading level are 3580 – 3710.
 Intraday support @ 3580 – 3630 and Resistance @ 3710 - 3750.
 Intraday Trend UP, Buy on dips....…
 Crude Buy @ 3600 SL 3570 TGT 3630 – 3650…..
Open Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Closing Comments
of Price Loss Price
Call
27.09.10 Buy Crude 3450-3480 3300 3610-3750- 3624 Almost 2nd Tgt
3870-4100 Achieved @ 3730.
14.10.10 Sell Gold Mini 19760 19880 19610-19500 19834
Spread Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiat Stop Target Comments
of ed Loss Spread
Call Price Spread
14.10.10 Buy Zinc Oct 106
7000 7000-10000
Sell Lead Oct 106.30
US Economic Indicator
US Economic Data
Time Data Prior Expected
6.00 PM CPI 0.3 % 0.2 %
6.00 PM Core CPI 0.0 % 0.1 %
6.00 PM Retail Sales 0.4 % 0.4 %
6.00 PM Retail Sales Ex-Auto 0.6 % 0.4 %
6.00 PM Empire Manufacturing 4.10 5.75
7.25 PM Mich Sentiment 68.2 68.5
7.30 PM Business Inventories 1.0 % 0.5 %
11.30 PM Treasury Budget -46.6B $ -33.5B $
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Date 15th October,10
Day Trader, Vultures Pick.
Commodity S2 S1 Prev. Close R1 R2 Trend
Gold 19770 19840 19948 19960 20050 Buy on dips & Sell on rise ….
Silver 35700 36050 36460 37000 37250 Buy on dips & Sell on rise ….
Crude 3580 3630 3663 3710 3750 Buy on dips ….
NG 156 160 164.80 167 171 Sell on rise ….
Copper 367 371 373.10 375.50 379 Sell on rise ….
Nickel 1055 1065 1079.70 1088 1102 Sell on rise ….
Zinc 104.70 105.70 105.60 107.20 108.80 Sell on rise ….
Lead 104.20 105.20 105.80 107.30 109 Sell on rise ….
Aluminum 104.50 105.30 105.75 106.80 107.70 Sell on rise ….
Report by: - Sumeet Bagadia.
(Assistant Vice President - Commodity & Currency)
Email: - sumeet.bagadia@cdequi.com
Contact No :- 022 - 30696875
For private circulation only Website: www.cdequi.com
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