The document provides a daily commodity insight report dated 10th October 2011. It summarizes the closing prices and daily price movements of various commodities like gold, silver, crude oil and USDINR. It then provides analysis on gold and pepper focusing on both fundamental and technical factors. For gold, it maintains a bullish long term view and provides price targets. For pepper, it expects prices to rise to 38000 levels in the next 1-2 months based on supply constraints. The report also provides daily trading ranges and levels for gold and lists some open commodity calls.

1. Commodity Insight
10th October,11
Turnover of 07.10.11 Commodity Rate Rate Up / Down
10.10.11 07.10.11
Exchange Turnover ( Cr.) Gold $ 1658.10 $ 1635.80 $ 22.30 $
MCX 59258 Silver $ 31.84 $ 30.99 $ 0.85 $
NCDEX 6362 Crude $ 83.51 $ 82.98 $ 0.53 $
USDINR 49.2350 49.2850 - 0.05
Gold
Fundamentally, Gold is moving upward as investors
are safeguarding their wealth against slow economic
growth in developed countries. In developed as well
as developing economies inflation is at its peak in last
1-2 years. Gold can break its record of 1921$ per
ounce as even European policy makers as trying to
find a solution for their debt crisis, weaker currencies
is also a trigger for investors to see gold move higher
and higher in 2012 and making new highs. So overall
scenario looks very positive and Gold prices can
continue to move up because of strong investment
demand
Technically, Gold has given a downside move of 300$
in past one month, prices are trading below the
Support of 1681 $. In short term prices can move in a
range 1570 to 1680$, further bullishness in prices can
be seen once when Gold price gives clear breakout
above 1681$. For short term Gold can be a good buy
at around 1620 or 1630$ for the targets of 1670 and
1740$. Gold is bullish till the time price does not give
close below 1570$.
In long term Gold prices are expected to touch levels of 2000$ in COMEX, any small correction
till 1570 $ would be a good buy opportunity for the targets of 1820$ and if the prices are able to
break and give close above 1820$ then Gold prices can touch levels of 2000$ in next four to five
to months. In MCX once if prices are able to break 28000 levels on closing basis then levels of
29500 and 31000 are easily achievable in next four months i.e. a return of approx 15 to 18%. We
maintain a bullish view in Gold for long term.
Pepper
Fundamentally, Pepper is strong as there is limited stock from the fresh crop and thin supply in
domestic market after India April-August pepper export jumps to 12%. Rising overseas demand is
also a support for uptrend. With low stocks, lower global production and rising export demand, trend is
likely to remain bullish for the commodity from a medium to long term point of view. Demand from
domestic stockiest is also increasing as stockiest in Kerala are releasing stocks in smaller quantities.
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2. Commodity Insight
10th October,11
Technically, Pepper prices have given upside move
of approx 2000 Rs from 34500 in last few days and
the same can continue till 37000 and 38000 levels.
Overall, the view remains bullish for next one to two
months. Pepper is having major support at 34500
levels, selling is advised only below these levels.
If pepper manages to break the level of 34500 on
donwside then the levels of 33000 and 32000 are
easily achiveable. We maintain our bullish view in
pepper till the time prices does not break levels of
34500 on downside. On higher side we expect
targets of 38000 rs in next one to two months.
Gold Chart
GOLD CONTINUOUS 100 TROY OZ [COMEX] (1,653.40, 1,668.00, 1,627.60, 1,635.80, -17.3999) 2000
1950
1900
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
Relative Strength Index (41.1875) 80
70
60
50
40
30
Volume (0) 0
11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27 3 10 18 24 31 7 14 22 28 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 31 6 13 20 27 5 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 12 19 26 3 10 17 24
November December 2011 February March April May June July August September October
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3. Commodity Insight
10th October,11
Daily Trading Range
 Gold today’s trading level are 26185 - 26680.
 Intraday support @ 26040 - 26185 and Resistance @ 26500 - 26680.
 Intraday Trend Up, Buy on dips....…
 Gold Buy @ 26400 SL 26200 TGT 26600 - 26800…..
Open Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Closing Comments
of Price Loss Price
Call
st
1 TGT Achieved,
07.10.11 Buy Copper 354-356 351 362-370 360.30 Hold with SL @
354.
st
1 TGT Achieved,
05.10.11 Buy Lead Mini 94.70 93 98-101 95.80 Hold with SL @
Cost.
03.10.11 Buy JPYINR 64.45 64 64.90-65.40 64.3375
Spread Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Comments
of Price Loss Spread
Call Spread
27.09.11 Buy Zinc Mini 96.90
3000 3000-5000
Sell Alumini 109.90
Report by: -
Sumeet Bagadia (Head - Commodity & Currency Research) sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com
Mohit Kothari (Research Associate) mohit.kothari@destimoney.com
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4. Commodity Insight
10th October,11
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