Webinar - The Energy Report - A fully sustainable and renewable global energy system is possible by 2050
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Webinar - The Energy Report - A fully sustainable and renewable global energy system is possible by 2050
- 1. The Energy Report Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050 Kees van der Leun Brussels, 12 April 2011
- 5. Key question Is a fully sustainable global energy system possible by 2050 ? The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 6. Answer Yes And the Ecofys Energy Scenario shows how it can be done.. The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 7. Fossils are phased out over time as renewables take up the challenge Source: Ecofys The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 9. Absolute energy use can be reduced without a reduction in energy services Source: Ecofys The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 10. The Energy Report is amongst the most ambitious visions today No other major scenario foresees a larger reduction in energy demand over the next 40 years Top lines are in primary, bottom lines in final energy Source: Ecofys The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 11. Activity increases, most strongly in non-OECD regions The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 13. Stabilisation in energy demand in industry through ambitious efficiency improvements Activity and intensity graphs are only shown for Steel, Cement, Aluminium and Paper sectors for illustration. Other sectors are based on GDP growth projections Source: Ecofys Source: Ecofys Source: Ecofys The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 16. Stabilisation in buildings results from ambitious energy efficiency improvements Floor area and specific energy use are shown for Residential sector only for illustrative purposes. Source: Ecofys Source: Ecofys Source: Ecofys The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 19. Stabilisation in the transport sector through ambitious energy efficiency improvements Activity graph excludes shipping. Shipping energy demand is based on GDP growth and relative efficiency savings in line with other modes. Source: Ecofys Source: Ecofys Source: Ecofys The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 22. Bioenergy in the Scenario is used as the final renewable supply option and subjected to strict sustainability criteria RESIDUES AND WASTE CROPS Bioenergy is only used after other renewable energy supply options have been exhausted Residues are used first, then comple-mentary fellings, then crops Sustainability is safeguarded through the bioenergy chain Non-bio renewable energy supply Bioenergy: Residues and waste Bioenergy: Energy crops COMPLE-MENTARY FELLINGS Bioenergy: Complementary fellings NB: The size of shapes here is NOT indicative of the size of the categories in the Scenario. Source: Ecofys Sustainability criteria Food security Biodiversity and carbon stock protection Human development Rain-fed agriculture Sustainability criteria Sustainable nutrient use Closed loop processing water use Sustainability criteria Closed loop processing water use Sustainability criteria Availability of residues Sustainable waste use Sustainability criteria Closed loop processing water use Sustainability criteria Sustainable use of additional forest growth Use of sustainable share of traditional biomass The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 23. The ambitious electrification allows us to make maximum use of solar, wind, hydro etc. Source: Ecofys The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 26. 95% renewable energy worldwide by 2050 is possible Source: Ecofys The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
- 32. Downloads The Energy Report can be freely downloaded from: www.ecofys.com The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050
Notes de l'éditeur
- Briefly introduce TER: The Energy Report is a 2-part report by WWF and Ecofys Part 1: 80 pages of WWF narrative Part 2: 170 pages of Ecofys Energy Scenario Based on generally accepted reference scenarios: UN for population, IEA for GDP growth Population grows from 6.9 billion (2010) to 9.3 billion (2050) TER has more sophisticated reasoning on growth of demand for energy services
- Short description: IEA: Crude oil has already peaked Oil as an (important) example of tight fossil fuel supplies Graph shows that even to keep crude oil supply at a constant level, an enormous effort into development and exploration is necessary The age of ‘easy oil’ is over; new fields are all in difficult locations (deep sea, Arctic, etc.) Just stabilizing oil production in combination with the strongly increasing demand will inevitably lead to a lot of stress (i.e. higher demand than supply), leading to an increase in prices “ Unconventional oil” is tar sands etc.: much more expensive and huge environmental impact. NGL is an oil replacement made out of natural gas More detailed description of graph: Dark blue is oil from currently producing fields; once a field hits its peak, production falls with 5-8% per year Grey is oil expected from fields already discovered and under development Light blue is expected from fields yet to be discovered, often in deep sea, or in harsh climate zones A modest growth of total oil production would be possible by expanding the production of liquid fuels from natural gas, and by increasing the production of ‘unconventional oil’ (mostly tar sands in Canada and Venezuela).
- Figures from the Emissions Gap Report, most important document in Climate Summit Cancún (2010) Ecofys (Niklas Hoehne) contributed as lead author They took existing scenarios, and studied which of those gave a ‘medium’ or ‘likely’ chance to stay below an average global warming of 2°C (generally seen as a limit above which situation becomes dangerous), this to find out what kind of emission reductions are necessary. Accepted by the countries in Cancún (although distribution of emission reductions remains to be solved)
- Briefly introduce TER [if required from context]: The Energy Report is a 2-part report by WWF and Ecofys Part 1: 80 pages of WWF narrative Part 2: 170 pages of Ecofys Energy Scenario – use the word ‘analysis’ rather than ‘study’ if possible Introduce the fundamental question we tried to answer: Is a fully sustainable global energy system possible by 2050 ? Clarify: Global means all regions of the world, no trading allowed into the system from outside (‘have to make do with what the planet supplies’) Entire energy system, i.e. not just power, but also fuel and heat demand Sustainable means at least renewable, with additional sustainability requirements for options where required
- Explain axes: Horizontal: time Vertical: final energy ( Final energy means energy as purchased by end user; as opposed to ‘primary energy’, i.e. the (higher) quantity needed before conversion (e.g. in power plants). In the baseline, energy demand would almost double by 2050, much of this increase having to be met by non-renewable energy sources. In contrast, the main assumptions in the TER approach are (in order of priority!): Reduce energy demand through ambitious energy efficiency and shift demand to the power sector through electrification without a reduction in energy services Supply this reduced energy demand from renewable sources in this priority order: Non-bio RES (mostly for power) Bio RES (mostly for fuel and heat) Fossil & Nuclear (when RES not sufficient) Use currently available technology only
- The scenario is global, but consists of some regional calculations. While results are currently only valid at the global level, future regional studies are possible with the approach
- Even with the doubling of activity, energy demand can not only stabilise but even decrease by 2050 To achieve this, need to adopt maximum energy efficiency across all sectors If efficiency is maximised, energy demand can be reduced 15% by 2050 w.r.t. 2005 levels ( 5% vs 2000 levels) Let’s look at each sector in turn
- Even most of the ‘low carbon’ ‘high renewables’ scenarios today show at best a stabilisation of demand to 2050. The exception are The Energy Report the [r]evolution study (for which Ecofys delivered the original demand side assessment) Important: Top lines are in primary, bottom lines in final energy! Compare the evolution, not the absolute numbers
- Activity increases, most strongly in non-OECD regions Graph on the right shows PER CAPITA activity change – most of indicators increase The only exception is the industry sector in OECD regions which sees a per capita and absolute activity decrease driven by ambitious material efficiency assumptions When per capita development is combined with population increase (see left graph), total activity more than doubles by 2050 Metrics shown in graphs Industry: Tonnes produced per capita (steel, aluminium, cement, paper) Buildings: Total floor space per capita Transport: Passenger-km per capita Sources used for these input assumptions: Population: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2006 Revision GDP: IEA WEO GDP projections to 2030 Industry, Buildings: own assumptions Travel: IEA/SMP (2004). Model Documentation and Reference Case Projection for WBCSD’s Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP), plus own assumptions on modal shift
- Material efficiency leads to a stabilisation of total material demand Modest reduction in production per capita in developed regions, continued growth in developing regions for the initial decades Clear performance benchmarks will drive ambitious energy intensity improvements through Shift from current, outdated technologies to current BAT, i.e. most efficient technologies Alternative production pathways and recycling
- The overall energy demand picture is composed of Activity evolution Shown here: total activity in the four ‘A’ sectors, for which actual production numbers exist Energy intensity devopment Here: swift move to BAT for all production processes
- Remaining heating for industry process heat, primarily for steam generation, will mostly be provided by renewable sources Biomass will take the largest share of this, providing ~65% In addition, biomass will provide some fuel needs in industry A residual need for fossil fuels remains, mainly for steel and cement production: These production processes rely on the specific properties of traditional fuels. Replacing these fuels will require the development and adoption of as yet unavailable new technologies
- Heating & Cooling New buildings will progressively move towards near-zero energy use integrated concepts Existing buildings will be retrofitted at an ambitious rate with insulation, improved windows and heat recovery systems to reduce the need for space heating and cooling Cooling will be provided with renewable, often local cooling solutions Delivering functions with local solutions Solar water heating systems will provide half of all water needs Widespread use of electric heat pumps will replace fuel use by upgrading ambient heat using renewable electricity
- The overall energy demand picture is composed of Activity evolution Shown here: total residential buildings space: despite a very low demolition rate, more than half the building space by 2050 will have been built after 2005 Picture for commercial building space is similar as both are based on population projections Energy intensity devopment Here: complete replacement of heat needs through insulation, solar thermal and heat pumps; concurrent increase in electricity, both from heat pumps and from appliances
- Remaining space heating needs for buildings will be provided by Decentralised solar heating and Centralised or district-level renewable sources Mostly geothermal heat and some bioenergy
- Renewable electricity options are abundant but renewable fuels are harder to find Scenario for Transport is based on Near-BAU amount of travel activity (i.e. no major reduction of travel volume assumed) Ambitious modal shifts towards efficient transport modes, e.g. from car to rail Ambitious assumptions on efficiency improvements in existing technologies Decisive shift to electric forms of transport Replacement of remaining non-renewable fuels with renewable fuels However, even with ambitious electrification, the overall demand for liquid fuels remains large This is mainly due to air travel, long-distance trucks and shipping [NB if a question is asked or for a very technical audience ONLY: electricity looks small compared to fuels in these graphs, but this is misleading. Final energy for electricity is close to the final energy used to move the wheels of the vehicle. Final energy for fuels is a much larger amount which then has to be transformed in the vehicles combustion engine to a much smaller, useable mechanical energy amount to drive the wheels.]
- The overall energy demand picture is composed of Activity evolution Shown here: total tonne km and person km Energy intensity devopment Here: intense efficiency improvements and major shift to electricity [NB if a question is asked or for a very technical audience ONLY: electricity looks small compared to fuels in these graphs, but this is misleading. Final energy for electricity is close to the final energy used to move the wheels of the vehicle. Final energy for fuels is a much larger amount which then has to be transformed in the vehicles combustion engine to a much smaller, useable mechanical energy amount to drive the wheels.]
- This is primarily due to passenger air travel demand and freight transport which cannot (yet) be shifted to rail / electric transport NB: travel volume 1 used as activitiy indicator includes large increase in travel volume per capita in ALL regions 1 IEA/SMP (2004). Model Documentation and Reference Case Projection for WBCSD’s Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) [Note on presentation structure: lead into bio story from this slide However, if you’re not showing these supply slides by sector, an alternative flow can be to do the power story first, then bio after (i.e. follow the priority order of options). In that case you can use the additional slide (see end of presentation) highlighting non-bio supply options in the overall supply graph as a lead-in. You could also repeat the demand overview (slide 9) again before the electrification (slide 22)]
- Graph on right shows total overall supply picture, but highlights the use of bioenergy. Bioenergy in the scenario is mostly used for transport and industry The reasons for this are that some of these uses cannot be electrified, notably: Long distance road transport Aviation Shipping Industrial fuels; especially: Applications that require very high temperature Applications that require a specific energy carrier (e.g. gaseous fuel, solid fuel)
- The scenario pays a great deal of attention to the sustainability of biomass in all aspects of the bioenergy supply chain. We considered carefully For crops Land use (cropland, biodiversity, human use) Irrigation For forests No disturbance of undisturbed forests Sustainable level of harvesting only Competing uses For residues Competing uses For all sources Sustinable processing and closed loop systems where possible And finally, biomass is only used as last resort, when ALL other options have been exhausted.
- Electrification leads to a shift of energy demand from heat and fuel to power. This is a pre-requisite for the high RES share, as RES power options are plentiful, but RES fuel options are rare Power grows from 45 EJ(~13 TWh, <20%) in 2000 to 130 EJ (~36 TWh, ~50%) in 2050
- By 2050 exploitation of renewable electricity sources will be widespread Renewable electricity will be so abundant that options will compete against each other even before 2050 Supply-driven renewable sources are limited by grid capacity / stability in later years Hydro, Geothermal, CSP* and Bioelectricity will provide demand-driven electricity Power grows from 45 EJ(~13 TWh, <20%) in 2000 to 130 EJ (~36 TWh, ~50%) in 2050 NB: exact share of power options is not fixed as there are large contingencies available in the later years
- [explain axes of graph on the left as it’s different from most other graphs in the presentation] Regional electricity grids need to be upgraded and extended to be ready for RES power To equilibrate load patterns, electricity grids should be well-connected regionally [with region we here mean one of the 10 world regions in the model] Remove bottlenecks to distribution by increasing capacity and increasing range of transmission lines Efforts to start now for results by 2030 Beyond 2020 may require better grid stability Re-focus R&D now to prepare our grids For ultra-high RES shares beyond 2030 all of the following levers need to be employed: Grid improvements Demand side management Storage Note that to go beyond 60% supply-driven RES share, large over- and/or storage capacities would need to be built to provide peak loads
- … but needs strong commitments from both: governments and companies. Ambitious policy instruments in place by 2010 – 2012 leading to: Peak in worldwide energy demand by 2020 Total final consumption of ~260 EJ/a in 2050 95% of supply from renewable sources by 2050 Groups are : Bio (mainly for heat and fuel): shades of green Other renewables (mainly for electricity, some heat): the rainbow below that Grey: Remaining fossil (5%) is for processes for which at present no renewable energy alternative is available Bio priority: First use all other renewables, then Bio. In Bio: First take residues, then crops. From 2030, algae come into the equation (too expensive before that) Overall Bio % in final energy in 2050: 40% (~100EJ) Wind/Solar: ~45% Other RES: ~10%
- TER takes a *cash flow* approach to assessing costs, i.e. upfront costs appear in the year they’re incurred Net annual costs peak just below ~2% (2 trillion EUR) in 2025, and turn into more than ~2% annual savings (4 trillion EUR) worldwide in 2050 CapEx peaks at ~3% in 2030 (~3.5 trillion EUR), then decreases to below ~1.5% (below 3 trillion EUR) in 2050 Savings from saved energy rise constantly to (~6 trillion) ~3.5% in 2050, with increased growth after 2020 Despite the overall attractiveness of the system, large hurdles to investment exist in almost all sectors, such as: Very high IRR rates / very short payback requirements Access to capital
- How do we move from today’s situation to the energy system of the future? It will not happen by itself. We need strong action from both, public leaders and private stakeholders
- Our key learnings