A very short and codensed version of the pres

1. Situation Normal,
Everything Must
Change

2. Evolution
Impacts
Cycles
Today
Strategy

3. Diffusion, a common
concept ...

4. Evolve ?
... doesn't explain
evolution ...

5. However, there's a non
Ubiquity
time based process of
evolution ...
Utility
Commodity
Product
Service
Custom Built
Genesis
Certainty

6. ... which we call
commoditisation
Ubiquity
User
ti on
iti sa
m od
C om
Supply
Certainty

7. ... which helps
explain the whole
story.

8. Map evolution against ...
Custom Commodity
Genesis Product
Evolution

9. ... value chain. We can use
Value Chain
this to explain how
industry changes ...
Evolution

10. ... creating a cycle of
commoditisation driving
higher order systems.

11. Hence Cloud ...
Product Utility

12. Chaotic As things evolve, their
characteristics change ...

13. Chaotic Linear
Six Sigma
... which is why one size fits
all methods don't work.

14. Evolution
Impacts
Cycles
Today
... this cycle also has
Strategy
standard impacts ...

15. Creative
Destruction
+ Efficiency
$$
+ Value

16. Componentisation
+ Efficiency
+ Agility
+ Value

17. Jevons
+ More
+ Efficiency
+ Agility
+ Value

18. ... and it's not just activities (what we do)
that evolve but also practices (how we do
things) ...
∆ Practices
∆ Activities

19. ... through a similar
process.
Novel Emerging Good Best
Genesis Custom Product Commodity

20. Often practices co-evolve
with activities ... Best
Product
Utility
Best

21. ... creating inertia to
change ... Best
Product
Utility
+ Transition
Best

22. ... or a least one of the
forms of inertia ...
Inertia

23. ... which also occurs in
vendors ...
Inertia
+ Past Success

24. ... leading to three
economic eras ...
Peace / Margin
War / Disruption
Build / Growth

25. Carlotta Perez
... which appear in every
age ...

26. Peace / Margin
Technology Diffusion
Maturity
Synergy
War /
Build / Growth
Frenzy Disruption
Eruption
... e.g. .... Time

27. Technology Diffusion
Organisations
... each state of war is
associated with new
organisational forms ... Time

28. ... those organisations being
based on the new practices ... Best
Product
Utility
Organisations
Best

29. ... hence we have a common
cycle of change ...
Inertia
Disruption
New
Emerging
Growth

30. ... for every age ... Mechanical
Components
Inertia
Disruption
American
Emerging System
Growth

31. ... ditto ... Means of mass
communication
Inertia
Disruption
Web 2.0
Emerging
Growth

32. ... ditto ... Cloud
Inertia
Disruption
Next
Emerging
Growth

33. ... ditto ...
The next Age ?

34. 2004

35. ... ditto ... Manufacturing
Inertia
Disruption
Next Next
Emerging
Growth

36. ... also we see increases in
unmodelled data ...
Inertia
Disruption
Data
New
Emerging
Growth

37. ... which evolves ...
Algorithms
Unmodelled Modelled
∆ Practices
∆ Activities

38. So what is happening
today?
Today ...

39. ... what we would
expect ... Cloud
Inertia
Disruption
Data
Next
Emerging
Growth

40. ... and also new forms of
organisation ...
Web 2.0
'Traditional'
Next

41. ... with different
Traditional Next Gen
characteristics ...
Structure Departmental Cell
Focus Profit Disruptive
Open source Cost reduction Weapon
Scaling Scale-up Distributed
Resilience N+1 Design For Fail
Failure Disaster Rec. Chaos Engine
Learning Analysts Ecosystem
Infrastructure Enterprise Commodity

42. Of importance ...
Ecosystem ...
Innovate
Leverage
Commoditise

43. ... and use of open as a
competitive weapon ...
Open Technology
(open source, open data, open
hardware, open standards, open APIs,
open process)

44. Open Technology
1. Drive adoption
2. Drive innovation (as in feature completeness)
3. Drive innovation (genesis higher order systems)
4. Drive efficiency
5. Undermine competitors barrier to entry
6. Enable formation of an ecosystem (ILC)
7. Protect an existing value chain ... numerous
strategies in the
wild ...

45. Open Technology
9. Prevent competitors differentiating around a core
revenue stream (Tower & Moat)
10. Retention and recruitment of talent
11. On ramp to another product or service (open core)
12. Overcome an obstacle (insertion strategy)
13. Encourage formation of a competitive market
(interoperable play)
14. Avoid transition costs (standards play)

46. Open Source &
the Next Age
... this will also matter in
the next age...

47. ... critical is understand
Ubiquity
evolution ...
Utility
Commodity
Product
Service
Custom Built
Genesis
Certainty

48. Threat
Value Chain
Barrier
... understand the
landscape ...
Evolution

49. Competing in an
Open World
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