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© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies For Wyffels’ Corn Strategies 2010 Presented by: John Roach July13 & 20, 2010
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What are the Fundamentals Now?
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
 
 
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 2010 42.9 Bu / Acre
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Iowa Soybean Plantings Condition (10,200 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Illinois Soybean Plantings Condition (9,300 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Minnesota Soybean Plantings Condition (7,500 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Missouri Soybean Plantings Condition (7,500 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 1, 2010
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Bean Situation and Price Outlook
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. USDA 2009 World Corn Yields 12/10/09 Non – U.S.  58.9  Bu/Acre World 80.3  Bu/Acre U.S. 162.9  Bu/Acre
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
 
 
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 2010 163.5 Bu / Ac
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Iowa Corn Plantings Condition (13,300 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Illinois Corn Plantings Condition (12,600 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Nebraska Corn Plantings Condition (8,800 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Minnesota Corn Plantings Condition (7,500 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. U.S. Corn Condition (% Good, Excellent)
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 1, 2010
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Corn Situation and Price Outlook
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. ,[object Object],[object Object],Rule # 1
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Why Market Grain Aggressively? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is it worth? The 5 Year Ave. of Dec corn during  Oct – Nov  $3.07 0.66   The 5 Year Ave. of Dec corn during  Roach Mar – June Sell Signals  =  $3.73
What is it worth? 150 bpa X 0.66 = $100 per acre
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. ,[object Object],Rule # 2
[object Object],© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. ,[object Object],Rule # 3
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. ,[object Object],Rule # 4
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. ,[object Object],Rule # 5
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. ,[object Object],Rule # 6
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. December 2009 Roach Ag. Corn Sell Signals Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. December 2010 Roach Ag. Corn Sell Signals
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Nov. 2010 Roach Ag. Bean Sell Signals
What About the Grain You Don’t Want to Sell Ahead? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cover Unsold Grain With  Put Options
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. The Information Revolution is Driving the Long Term Demand for Milk, Meat, and Eggs
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.  7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL  33487 800-622-7628 [email_address]   http:// www.roachag.com

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Roach Ag grain price outlook and marketing strategies

  • 1. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies For Wyffels’ Corn Strategies 2010 Presented by: John Roach July13 & 20, 2010
  • 2.
  • 3. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What are the Fundamentals Now?
  • 4. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 5. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 6. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 7. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 8. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 9. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 10. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 11. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 12.  
  • 13.  
  • 14. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 2010 42.9 Bu / Acre
  • 15. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Iowa Soybean Plantings Condition (10,200 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 16. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Illinois Soybean Plantings Condition (9,300 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 17. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Minnesota Soybean Plantings Condition (7,500 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 18. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Missouri Soybean Plantings Condition (7,500 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 19. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 20. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 21. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 22. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 1, 2010
  • 23. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 24. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 25. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 26.
  • 27. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 28. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 29. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. USDA 2009 World Corn Yields 12/10/09 Non – U.S. 58.9 Bu/Acre World 80.3 Bu/Acre U.S. 162.9 Bu/Acre
  • 30. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 31. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 32. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 33.  
  • 34.  
  • 35. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 2010 163.5 Bu / Ac
  • 36. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Iowa Corn Plantings Condition (13,300 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 37. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Illinois Corn Plantings Condition (12,600 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 38. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Nebraska Corn Plantings Condition (8,800 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 39. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Minnesota Corn Plantings Condition (7,500 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 40. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. U.S. Corn Condition (% Good, Excellent)
  • 41. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 42. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 43. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 44. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 45. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 46. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 47. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 48. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 1, 2010
  • 49. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 50. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 51. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 52.
  • 53. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
  • 54.
  • 55. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 56. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 57.
  • 58. What is it worth? The 5 Year Ave. of Dec corn during Oct – Nov $3.07 0.66 The 5 Year Ave. of Dec corn during Roach Mar – June Sell Signals = $3.73
  • 59. What is it worth? 150 bpa X 0.66 = $100 per acre
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
  • 63. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
  • 64. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 68.
  • 69. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 70. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 71. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 72. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 73. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 74. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. December 2009 Roach Ag. Corn Sell Signals Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 75. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. December 2010 Roach Ag. Corn Sell Signals
  • 76. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 77. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 78. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 79. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 80. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 81. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 82. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Nov. 2010 Roach Ag. Bean Sell Signals
  • 83.
  • 84.
  • 85. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. The Information Revolution is Driving the Long Term Demand for Milk, Meat, and Eggs
  • 86. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http:// www.roachag.com