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OECD work on fossil
fuel subsidies
Coverage

• Inventory fills a major gap in data on subsidies.
• Identifies and estimates more than 250 budgetary transfers and tax
  expenditures for fossil fuel production and use.
• 24 OECD countries:
  Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland,
  Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New
  Zealand, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UK & US.
• 2 or 3 states, provinces or Länder covered for
  Australia, Canada, Germany, and the US.
• In future: regularly update and add further countries, sub-national
  entities, and other types of support mechanisms.
Matrix of fossil fuel support measures
                                                                    Statutory or Formal Incidence (to whom and what a transfer is first given)
                                                                       Direct consumption       Output returns Enterprise    Cost of         Costs of
                                                                   Unit cost of       Household or                               income            intermediate        Production
                                                                  consumption          enterprise                                                      inputs           Factors1
                                                                                        income
                                                                                                                                                                       Capital grant
                                                    Direct                              Government-       Output bounty
                                                                                                                                                     Input-price         linked to
                                                    transfer of    Unit subsidy      subsidized life-line or deficiency Operating grant
                                                                                                                                                       subsidy         acquisition of
                                                    funds                              electricity rate     payment
                                                                                                                                                                      land or capital
   Transfer Mechanism (how a transfer is created)




                                                                                       Tax deduction
                                                                                                                                                                      Investment tax
                                                                  VAT or excise-     related to energy                                              Reduction in
                                                    Tax revenue                                           Production tax     Reduced rate                             credit; property
                                                                  tax concession      purchases that                                                excise tax on
                                                    foregone                                                  credit         of income tax                           tax reduction or
                                                                      on fuel          exceed given                                                    inputs
                                                                                                                                                                        exemption
                                                                                      share of income

                                                                                                                                                   Under-pricing of
                                                                  Under-pricing of
                                                                                                                                                       a good,       Under-pricing of
                                                    Other           access to a
                                                                                                            Reduced                                 government          access to
                                                    government         natural
                                                                                                          resource rent                              service or     government land;
                                                    revenue           resource
                                                                                                               tax                                  access to a      reduced royalty
                                                    foregone        harvested by
                                                                                                                                                       natural          payment
                                                                  final consumer
                                                                                                                                                      resource
                                                                                                                                                     Provision of
                                                                                                                                                                     Credit guarantee
                                                    Transfer of                                                                 Third-party          security (eg
                                                                  Price-triggered Means-tested cold-       Government                                                     linked
                                                    risk to                                                                  liability limit for       military
                                                                      subsidy       weather grant          buffer stock                                               acquistition of
                                                    government                                                                  producers           protection for
                                                                                                                                                                      land or capital
                                                                                                                                                    supply lines)
                               Regulated                                                                                                                              Wage control;
                                                    Induced                          Mandated life-line   Import tariff or      Monopoly               Export
                              price; cross
                                                    transfers                         electricity rate    export subsidy             3
                                                                                                                               concession            restriction
                                                                                                                                                                       credit control
                                subsidy                                                                                                                              (sector specific)
1. Labour, land, capital, knowledge.
Overview of support by fuel




Note: This graph is based on an arithmetic sum of the individual support measures identified for a sample of 21 OECD countries, i.e.
the 24 OECD countries included in the inventory net of those countries for which estimates have not been collected yet (Chile, Iceland
and Luxembourg). It reflects the value of tax relief measured under each jurisdiction’s benchmark tax treatment. The estimates do not
take into account interactions that may occur if multiple measures were to be removed at the same time

Data source: OECD (2011), Inventory of Estimated Budgetary Support and Tax Expenditures for Fossil Fuels.
Overview of support by incidence




Notes:
• This graph is based on an arithmetic sum of the individual support measures identified for a sample of 21 OECD countries, i.e.
the 24 OECD countries included in the inventory net of those countries for which estimates have not been collected yet
(Chile, Iceland and Luxembourg). It reflects the value of tax relief measured under each jurisdiction’s benchmark tax treatment.
The estimates do not take into account interactions that may occur if multiple measures were to be removed at the same time
• PSE = Producer Support Estimate; CSE = Consumer Support Estimate; GSSE = General Services Support Estimate.
Data source: OECD (2011), Inventory of Estimated Budgetary Support and Tax Expenditures for Fossil Fuels.
Caveats

• Exercise in transparency no analysis as yet of the impacts of support
  measures or judgment on whether they are economically efficient or
  environmentally harmful.

• Benchmarks are critical, especially for establishing tax expenditures   we
  used benchmarks of individual countries.

• Countries vary in terms of their transparency in reporting support.

• Cannot compare totals across countries in a meaningful way.

• Caution needed in interpreting & aggregating data.
Emissions impacts of fossil fuel subsidy removal
“central policy” scenario: gradual phase-out to 2020 of fossil fuel consumer
             subsidies in 37 emerging and developing economies
               % changes in GHG emissions with respect to BAU
                                               All GHG                                        CO2
         5%
         0%
         -5%
        -10%
        -15%
        -20%
        -25%
        -30%
        -35%
        -40%
        -45%




                                                                                                                     China *


                                                                                                                               WORLD
                             Russia *


                                        Mexico *


                                                    Indonesia *




                                                                                                    South Africa *
                                                                                          India *
                                                                  Other countries * (2)
                MENA * (1)




                •Regions in which the fossil fuel subsidies have been removed
                • (1) Middle East & Northern Africa
                • (2) Other Asian, African and Latin American Emerging economies
                •Sources : OECD ENV-Linkages Model - Based on IEA subsidy data for the year 2009
Unilateral removal of energy subsidies bring GDP gains
                                          Impacts on GDP in 2050 (% change from baseline)
                                          6%
   % deviation relative to the baseline




                                          5%


                                          4%


                                          3%


                                          2%


                                          1%


                                          0%
                                               Indonesia   India      Russia    MENA (1)      China      Other        South      Mexico
                                                                                                        countries     Africa
                                                                                                           (2)


                                                   • (1) Middle East & Northern Africa
                                                   • (2) Other Asian, African and Latin American Emerging economies
                                                   •Sources : OECD ENV-Linkages Model - Based IEA subsidies data for the year 2009
Multilateral reforms: impacts on projected GDP growth
  Real GDP in 2050 as % of 2010 levels, with and without reform of fossil
                              fuel support
       900%


       800%


       700%                                                                                                                          Baseline
       600%


       500%
                                                                                                                                     Multilateral Reform

       400%


       300%


       200%


       100%


         0%




                                                                                                                           Oceania

                                                                                                                                       Canada
                                                                                                     Mexico *




                                                                                                                                                USA




                                                                                                                                                      & Korea
                                                                                            Brazil
                         countries *




                                                                            Annex I * (2)
                                       Indonesia *




                                                                                Africa *
              India *




                                                               MENA * (1)




                                                                                                                                                       & EFTA
                                                     China *




                                                                                                                Russia *




                                                                                                                                                        EU27
                                                                                South




                                                                                                                                                       Japan
                           Other




                                                                              Rest of




                        •Regions in which the fossil fuel subsidies have been removed
                        • (1) Middle East & Northern Africa
                        •(2) Other European Annex 1 countries : Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus, Croatia, …                                                            9
                        •(3) Other Asian, African and Latin American Emerging economies
                        •Sources : OECD ENV-Linkages Model - Based IEA subsidies data for the year 2009
Why make CO2 cheaper if you’re trying to make it scarcer?

Income gains from unilateral fossil fuel subsidy removal (% change in HH income vs BAU)



                                                                            $45-75                          6% less emissions
                                  USD $409 billion                          billion                           globally from
                                  2010 , developing country                2010, in fossil                  removal of fossil
 5                                 fossil fuel consumption                  fuel support                     fuel subsidies
                                           subsidies                    in OECD countries
 4
                                                                                                 $ 44
 3                                                                                           billion, 201
                                                                                               0, global
 2                                                                                            renewable
                                                                                              electricity
 1                                                                                             subsidies

 0
-1
-2
      Oil-exporting             India                China                  Russia              Rest of the    Non-EU Eastern
       countries                                                                                  World          European
Source: OECD and IEA analysis see website: www.oecd.org/iea-oecd-ffss
                                                                                                                 Countries

                                                                                                                         10
Thank you!

For further information:
www.oecd.org/iea-oecd-ffss
www.oecd.org/g20/fossilfuelsubsidies


Or contact:

For OECD estimates about fossil-fuel support in OECD :
Ronald.Steenblik@oecd.org or Jehan.Sauvage@oecd.org

For economic impact of reforming non-AI consumer subsidies :
Jean.Chateau@oecd.org




                                                               11

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OECD work on fossil fuel subsidies - Simon Upton

  • 1. OECD work on fossil fuel subsidies
  • 2. Coverage • Inventory fills a major gap in data on subsidies. • Identifies and estimates more than 250 budgetary transfers and tax expenditures for fossil fuel production and use. • 24 OECD countries: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UK & US. • 2 or 3 states, provinces or Länder covered for Australia, Canada, Germany, and the US. • In future: regularly update and add further countries, sub-national entities, and other types of support mechanisms.
  • 3. Matrix of fossil fuel support measures Statutory or Formal Incidence (to whom and what a transfer is first given) Direct consumption Output returns Enterprise Cost of Costs of Unit cost of Household or income intermediate Production consumption enterprise inputs Factors1 income Capital grant Direct Government- Output bounty Input-price linked to transfer of Unit subsidy subsidized life-line or deficiency Operating grant subsidy acquisition of funds electricity rate payment land or capital Transfer Mechanism (how a transfer is created) Tax deduction Investment tax VAT or excise- related to energy Reduction in Tax revenue Production tax Reduced rate credit; property tax concession purchases that excise tax on foregone credit of income tax tax reduction or on fuel exceed given inputs exemption share of income Under-pricing of Under-pricing of a good, Under-pricing of Other access to a Reduced government access to government natural resource rent service or government land; revenue resource tax access to a reduced royalty foregone harvested by natural payment final consumer resource Provision of Credit guarantee Transfer of Third-party security (eg Price-triggered Means-tested cold- Government linked risk to liability limit for military subsidy weather grant buffer stock acquistition of government producers protection for land or capital supply lines) Regulated Wage control; Induced Mandated life-line Import tariff or Monopoly Export price; cross transfers electricity rate export subsidy 3 concession restriction credit control subsidy (sector specific) 1. Labour, land, capital, knowledge.
  • 4. Overview of support by fuel Note: This graph is based on an arithmetic sum of the individual support measures identified for a sample of 21 OECD countries, i.e. the 24 OECD countries included in the inventory net of those countries for which estimates have not been collected yet (Chile, Iceland and Luxembourg). It reflects the value of tax relief measured under each jurisdiction’s benchmark tax treatment. The estimates do not take into account interactions that may occur if multiple measures were to be removed at the same time Data source: OECD (2011), Inventory of Estimated Budgetary Support and Tax Expenditures for Fossil Fuels.
  • 5. Overview of support by incidence Notes: • This graph is based on an arithmetic sum of the individual support measures identified for a sample of 21 OECD countries, i.e. the 24 OECD countries included in the inventory net of those countries for which estimates have not been collected yet (Chile, Iceland and Luxembourg). It reflects the value of tax relief measured under each jurisdiction’s benchmark tax treatment. The estimates do not take into account interactions that may occur if multiple measures were to be removed at the same time • PSE = Producer Support Estimate; CSE = Consumer Support Estimate; GSSE = General Services Support Estimate. Data source: OECD (2011), Inventory of Estimated Budgetary Support and Tax Expenditures for Fossil Fuels.
  • 6. Caveats • Exercise in transparency no analysis as yet of the impacts of support measures or judgment on whether they are economically efficient or environmentally harmful. • Benchmarks are critical, especially for establishing tax expenditures we used benchmarks of individual countries. • Countries vary in terms of their transparency in reporting support. • Cannot compare totals across countries in a meaningful way. • Caution needed in interpreting & aggregating data.
  • 7. Emissions impacts of fossil fuel subsidy removal “central policy” scenario: gradual phase-out to 2020 of fossil fuel consumer subsidies in 37 emerging and developing economies % changes in GHG emissions with respect to BAU All GHG CO2 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% China * WORLD Russia * Mexico * Indonesia * South Africa * India * Other countries * (2) MENA * (1) •Regions in which the fossil fuel subsidies have been removed • (1) Middle East & Northern Africa • (2) Other Asian, African and Latin American Emerging economies •Sources : OECD ENV-Linkages Model - Based on IEA subsidy data for the year 2009
  • 8. Unilateral removal of energy subsidies bring GDP gains Impacts on GDP in 2050 (% change from baseline) 6% % deviation relative to the baseline 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Indonesia India Russia MENA (1) China Other South Mexico countries Africa (2) • (1) Middle East & Northern Africa • (2) Other Asian, African and Latin American Emerging economies •Sources : OECD ENV-Linkages Model - Based IEA subsidies data for the year 2009
  • 9. Multilateral reforms: impacts on projected GDP growth Real GDP in 2050 as % of 2010 levels, with and without reform of fossil fuel support 900% 800% 700% Baseline 600% 500% Multilateral Reform 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% Oceania Canada Mexico * USA & Korea Brazil countries * Annex I * (2) Indonesia * Africa * India * MENA * (1) & EFTA China * Russia * EU27 South Japan Other Rest of •Regions in which the fossil fuel subsidies have been removed • (1) Middle East & Northern Africa •(2) Other European Annex 1 countries : Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus, Croatia, … 9 •(3) Other Asian, African and Latin American Emerging economies •Sources : OECD ENV-Linkages Model - Based IEA subsidies data for the year 2009
  • 10. Why make CO2 cheaper if you’re trying to make it scarcer? Income gains from unilateral fossil fuel subsidy removal (% change in HH income vs BAU) $45-75 6% less emissions USD $409 billion billion globally from 2010 , developing country 2010, in fossil removal of fossil 5 fossil fuel consumption fuel support fuel subsidies subsidies in OECD countries 4 $ 44 3 billion, 201 0, global 2 renewable electricity 1 subsidies 0 -1 -2 Oil-exporting India China Russia Rest of the Non-EU Eastern countries World European Source: OECD and IEA analysis see website: www.oecd.org/iea-oecd-ffss Countries 10
  • 11. Thank you! For further information: www.oecd.org/iea-oecd-ffss www.oecd.org/g20/fossilfuelsubsidies Or contact: For OECD estimates about fossil-fuel support in OECD : Ronald.Steenblik@oecd.org or Jehan.Sauvage@oecd.org For economic impact of reforming non-AI consumer subsidies : Jean.Chateau@oecd.org 11

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. In the OECD Environmental Outlook we have assumed that all the countries covered by the IEA database will remove their subsidies gradually until 2020. For some regions, GHG emissions would be reduced by over 20%, in 2050: Russia or in Middle East and North African countries. At the global level, CO2 emissions would be reduced by 7%, relative to the baseline. Extra Insight (if you’ve time to mention it) Notice that the reduction of non-CO2 gases is an additional environmental benefit from subsidy reform since these gases are not directly linked to fossil fuel combustion as CO2 is. This illustrates the complementarities across gases.
  2. Let’s assume, for a moment, that each developing country removes its fossil-fuel subsidies unilaterally. The figure shows that each country would generally record real GDP gains. This in line with what is suggested by the theory: these gains arise from a more efficient domestic allocation of resources across sectors.
  3. Now, let’s go back to the case where countries remove, all together, their fossil-fuel subsidies. The economic impacts are different because the global subsidy reform imply an important decrease in the world energy demand. This decrease in demand could imply a decrease in fossil-fuel exports that could offset the benefit of the reform for some some exporting countries could report GDP losses (MENA).In any case the losses are very small compared to the projected growth over the 40 next years.