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Addressing Climate Change and Variability in the Development of Environmental Flows Paul Leonard , Lauren Elmore and Lawrence Wise Climate Change and Environmental Flows
Some important questions: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is climate change? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],IPCC  - climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.
Climate change in the California? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Five Riverine Flow Components  (Instream Flow Council 2008)   ,[object Object],Water Quality Biology Physical Processes Connectivity Relevance of climate change to environmental flows:  focus on hydrology
Effects on Aquatic Ecosystems  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Stationarity and hydrology ,[object Object]
Changing hydrology and environmental flows   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Incorporating climate change into streamflow management   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Uncertainty?  Availability? Global Climate Model Projections GHG Emission Trajectories Downscaling, Regional Models Hydrologic Models Hydrologic Scenarios Planning / Impact Assessment based on Projected “Futures” Scenario-Based Climate Change Assessments
Climate change streamflow scenarios for water planning… ,[object Object],Climate-Change Scenarios for Water Planning Studies 2003, Snover et al. 2003
Risk-Based Assessment Approaches ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How has California been adapting to recent climate change-like patterns? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Hydrologicially Contingent Flow Releases
Forward-looking projections using meteorological forecasts “ Some weather patterns, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can now be predicted with some accuracy…”
Some Projects Incorporating Climate Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Potential impediments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some practical considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Planning vs. permitting considerations   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Can we incorporate risk management?   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risk management & adaptive management   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Final thoughts…   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 

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Wise Sess11 102509

  • 1. Addressing Climate Change and Variability in the Development of Environmental Flows Paul Leonard , Lauren Elmore and Lawrence Wise Climate Change and Environmental Flows
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  • 10. Uncertainty? Availability? Global Climate Model Projections GHG Emission Trajectories Downscaling, Regional Models Hydrologic Models Hydrologic Scenarios Planning / Impact Assessment based on Projected “Futures” Scenario-Based Climate Change Assessments
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  • 15. Forward-looking projections using meteorological forecasts “ Some weather patterns, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can now be predicted with some accuracy…”
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Notes de l'éditeur

  1. In the past thee years alone, ENTRIX has led or participated in some of the most prominent river basin studies in the Southeastern United States The largest reservoir operations planning and EIS project One of the first Section 206 AER Studies Instream flow studies and fish habitat requirements for some of the largest rivers