http://www.peopo.org/news/108765 Crises and Opportunities in Environmental Study環境的危機與轉機國際研討會

1. Who is Responsible for Climate Change?
Naomi Oreskes, University of California, San Diego
University system of Taiwan International Workshop
“Crises and Opportunities in Environmental Study” February 2013

2. Focuses on who is responsible for
preventing action on climate
change in the USA

3. But who is responsible for climate change?
Can we use the concept of responsibility to
help move forward action?

4. 1992:
United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
Commits signatories to prevent
“dangerous anthropogenic interference”…
in climate system
http://unfccc.int/key_documents/the_convention/items/2853.php
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php

5. Currently 195 signatories.
Including USA, Russian Federation,
EU, Saudi Arabia (but not Taiwan)

6. UNFCCC invokes a science-driven framework
Article 2 commits signatories to
“…stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system.…
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php

7. “…dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.…
Defined as interference that threatens:
Biodiversity
Food production
Sustainable economic development
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php

8. ARTICLE 2:
OBJECTIVE
The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal
.
instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve,
in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention,
stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with
the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-
frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate
change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable
economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php

9. A science drive-framework
Presumption was that scientists would determine
that level and the world would act accordingly .

10. For most of past 50 years, climate change has
been framed and interpreted primarily as a
scientific problem:
Is climate change happening?
Is it caused by human activities?
What will the effects be in the future?
What, if any thing, can be done (technically) to
stop or slow DAI?
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php

11. Scientists have largely answered the scientific
questions.

12. Is climate change happening?

13. Yes: about 1 C warming over past century

14. Is it caused by human activities?

16. Isotope data show the CO2 comes from organic
sources—i.e., wood, fossil fuels—and not
volcanoes…

18. What will the effects be in the future?
Future is less certain than the past,
but broad agreement that unmitigated warming
will lead to significant disruptions:
Sea level rise and associated storm surge, coastal
erosion
Extreme weather events (tropical storm
intensification)
Droughts, wild fires, heat waves  crop failures
Loss of biodiversity (esp. in Arctic regions, high
elevations)
Loss of Arctic sea ice  cultural losses, ocean
circulation

19. What, if any thing, can be done to stop or slow
DAI?

20. Greatly reduce, ultimately eliminate, the
greenhouse gas emissions that are the primary
drivers of DAI
Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC:
Specific targets for GHG reductions among
Annex I nations.
Targets ranged from -20% (Germany) to +25
(Greece) compared to 1990 baseline

21. Reducing GHG emissions is not primarily a
scientific problem.
It is a political problem  agreement
(treaties, conventions, protocols, trade
It is a technological problem
 Conversion of energy system
 It is a social problem:
Political and cultural support for (1) and (2)

22. So responsibility shifts, from scientists, who have
identified, articulated, and explained the problem
to…?

23. Whom?
Who is Responsible for Climate
Change?

24. 1) Governments?
2) Those who have delayed action?
3) Producers of fossil fuels?
4) Business community (to develop
alternatives)?
5) All of us? (but some more than others?)

25. 1) Governments?
UNFCCC focuses on nation-states
“State-actors.”
Not surprisingly, because nation-state
governments negotiated it.

26. “Common but differentiated responsibility”
All countries share responsibility, but the
degree of responsibility varies according to
how much those countries have contributed to
the problem.

27. “Common but differentiated responsibility”
Annex I Nations
Industrialized and “EIT”—economies in transition
—wealthy countries that largely became wealthy
by tapping energy in fossil fuels.
Large historic (cumulative) emissions
Therefore the countries most responsible for the
GHG in atmosphere that are driving DAI

28. Annex I Nations:
In 1992: Big three: U.K., USA, and Germany
(and then the rest of Europe):
Wealthy, highly industrialized, industrialized first.
Rest of world played almost no role till past 30 years

29. Cumulative Per Capita Emissions:
Same Result, + Canada, Russia, and Japan

30. USA refused to sign onto Kyoto Protocol
Canada withdrew in 2011

31. USA emissions overall since 1990
up 10%
Canada: up 30%
(v. promise of -6%)
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions usinventoryreport.html

32. In Contrast,
UK: 18% cut
Germany: 26%
EU on track to cut 20% by 2020

33. USA and Canada are most responsible for
continued increase in GHG emissions among
Annex I countries.
It is clearly possible for wealthy countries to cut
their emissions, without serious economic harm.
Economic and energy policies affect total GHG
emissions.

34. What about (mainland) China?
USA: President George W. Bush said he was
unwilling to support any international agreement
that did not include India and China
How much has China contributed to climate
change?

35. Cumulative Emissions by Nation:
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 1800-2010 355.04 26.6% 96,895,773
36,001,807 16,587,634 657,416 275,065 4.90 1,335,852
USSR + RUSSIAN FEDERATION 1830-2010 144.44 10.8% 39,420,652
12,072,592 9,059,188 615,232 219,929 3.43 83,957
CHINA 1901-2010 116.50 8.7% 31,793,584 24,506,552 4,795,
2,495,532 8,355 1.43 43,692
GERMANY + EAST + WEST 1792-2010 83.94 6.3% 22,907,756
4,652,392 1,462,399 316,726 13,370 2.61 271,935
UNITED KINGDOM 1751-2010 74.36 5.6% 20,295,047 15,260
1,447,366 130,394 52,623 2.32 366,089
JAPAN + JAPAN 1868-2010 53.55 4.0% 14,613,648 5,199,679
1,092,940 499,742 364 2.59 453,838
INDIA 1858-2010 37.60 2.8% 10,262,521 7,331,234 2,206,
398,045 40,550 0.40 50,998
FRANCE 1802-2010 34.72 2.6% 9,474,341 5,007,702 3,532,
187,244 13,162 1.66 198,683
CANADA 1785-2010 27.08 2.0% 7,390,738 2,404,062
1,623,291 79,395 61,216 4.46 101,526
POLAND 1800-2010 24.32 1.8% 6,637,012 5,702,594
104,802 154 2.26 15,047

36. Dramatic increase in Chinese emissions in last
three decades: Now about 9-10%
(surpassing UK and Germany)

37. Per capita cumulative emissions, picture is different
The average Chinese citizen has contributed only about 1/10 th the average
U.S. citizen , still well behind UK, Germany, Russia, Canada and Japan

38. If we just look at present (2009):
World average: 4.5 metric tons
per capita:
USA 17.3
France: 5.6
China: 5.7
Taiwan: 3.0 (2008)
(up from 1.7 in 1989)
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC/countries?display=graph

39. China is catching up with Europe in per capita
GHG production, and with USA in total annual
emissions, but still lags far behind USA both in
cumulative and per capita emissions.

40. One more consideration:
How much of China’s GHG production is in
manufacture of goods for export markets,
mostly in USA and Europe?

41. 1) Governments?
2) Those who have delayed action?
3) Producers of fossil fuels?
4) Business community
(to develop alternatives)?
5) All of us? (but some more than others?)

42. What about those who have
contributed to the delay in action
in the United States?

43. Yale/ Gallup Poll, Summer of 2007:
40% think scientists are still arguing facts of
climate change.

44. Studies
consistently show
that if people
think scientists
are uncertain
about reality of
climate change,
they will be
uncertain as well.

45. “Uncertainty”—the idea that we
don’t really know”—was the
primary message promoted by
the “Merchants of Doubt.”

48. 30-40% of Americans still think that
observed changes in climate can be
mostly or entirely explained by natural
variability
http://environment.yale.edu/news/Research/5310/americ
an-opinions-on-global-warming-summary/

49. These
Americans
include John
McCain’s
running mate

50. Palin Not Convinced on Global
Warming Washington Post,
8/31/08
“…Sarah Palin told voters she wasn’t sure
climate change wasn’t simply part of a
natural warming cycle… Her spokesman
clarified: “She’s not totally convinced one
way or the other. Science will tell us… She
thinks the jury’s still out.”

59. Merchants of Doubt focused on one particular think tank:
Today: large network of think-tanks and organizations who
perpetuate doubt about climate science
Alexis De Tocqueville Institute
Cato Institute
American Enterprise Institute
Competitive Enterprise Institute
Heartland Institute
Acton Institute
Hudson Institute
Heritage Foundation
Atlas Economic Foundation
Americans for Prosperity
Frontiers of Freedom
Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow
Institute for Public Affairs (Australia)
Let Freedom Ring

60. Who funds these groups?
Regulated Industries
Petroleum Industry
(Global Climate Coalition)
Tobacco Industry
Mining Industry (US and Australian Coal Companies)
Chemical Industry
Pharmaceutical Industry
Cell Phone Industry

61. Tobacco industry was prosecuted by the U.S.
Department of Justice for its role in spreading
disinformation about the harms of tobacco.
Could fossil fuel industry be prosecuted for its role in spreading disinformation
about the harms of anthropogenic climate change?

62. Tobacco industry was prosecuted by the U.S.
Department of Justice for its role in spreading
disinformation about the harms of tobacco.

63. Could the fossil fuel industry be prosecuted for
its role in spreading disinformation about the
harms of climate change?

64. 1) Governments?
2) Those who have delayed action?
3) Producers of fossil fuels?
4) Business community (to develop
alternatives)?
5) All of us? (but some more than others?)

65. 3) Producers of fossil fuels?
Disinformation in USA partly funded and
promoted by “Global Climate Coalition”

66. Global Climate Coalition
Members included major petroleum producers
Exxon –Mobil
British Petroleum
Shell Oil
Chevron (formerly Standard Oil of California)
http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/ExxonMobil-GlobalWarming-tobacco.html

67. Global Climate Coalition
Also manufacturers of products that rely on fossils fuels:
Ford Motor Company
General Motors Company
Daimler/ Chrysler
The American Highway Users Alliance (founded by GM)
The Aluminum Association
http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/ExxonMobil-GlobalWarming-tobacco.html

68. Global Climate Coalition
What is their responsibility?
Should shareholders object to this (mis)-use of corporate
funds?
Should investors divest?
http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/ExxonMobil-GlobalWarming-tobacco.html

69. 1) Governments?
2) Those who have delayed action?
3) Producers of fossil fuels?
4) Business community (to develop alternatives)?
5) All of us? (but some more than others?)
6) Governments other than nation-states (i.e. US
state governments, provinces, cities)

70. “This generation has altered the
composition of the atmosphere on a
global scale through…a steady
increase in carbon dioxide from the
burning of fossil fuels.”
--Lyndon Johnson
Special Message to Congress,
1965