2. What are ecological footprints?
• Ecological footprints measure the
extent to which humans are using the
Earth’s bioproductive capacity
• Units are global hectares
– A hectare of land with “average bio-
productive capacity (for agriculture, forest,
nutrient cycling, energy production, etc.)
– A hectare = 2.5 acres
(1 acre is about a football field between the 5 yard lines)
(1 hectare is 2 complete football fields with endzones)
4. Ecological footprints measure Earth’s
carrying capacity for humans
• In 2010, the biosphere had about 11.5 billion
hectares of biologically productive surface
(about 1/4 of the total planet)
– 2 billion ha of ocean (the continental shelves)
– 9.5 billion ha of land
• Current estimates indicate that humans are
over-shooting the Earth’s carrying capacity
by 25-50%
– To sustain the current carrying capacity, we
could need 11
/2 Earths!
– But, population growth and increasing
development means that we are increasing our
7. With respect to sustainability of the human endeavor,
population growth rate and population size are only
part of the picture: per capita consumption is the
other
Developed countries
have very large
ecological footprints
13. United States Ecological Footprint By
Component
Biocapacity varies somewhat over time because of
technology, agricultural practices (such as fertilizer use
and irrigation), ecosystem degradation
15. Mexico
• Mexico has moved from using only 1/3 of its biocapacity
in 1961 to nearly 1 ½ times its own biocapacity in 2002
16. Calculate your own ecological footprint
(Can you realistically reduce your footprint to 1 planet?)
17. So, where do we stand?
• There are 11.5 billion hectares of bio-productive
land, and it is declining
• There are about 7 billion people, and increasing at
about 1% per year
• There are currently 1 2
/3 hectares per person, and
most ecologists believe this is insufficient to
support a significant quality of life for the average
person on Earth
• If we continue down the path we are on, there will be
less than 1 hectare per person by 2050
20. Envisioning Solutions
• Former president Bill Clinton has argued that
combating climate change doesn’t have to mean
economic hardship (Clinton Initiative Topic)
• It could be the biggest development stimulus since
World War II, creating millions of jobs and saving
trillions of dollars in foreign fuel imports
• What are some of the strategies we have available?
9-20
21. Controlling Emissions is Cheap
Compared to Climate Change
• A 2010 study by the Pew Trust estimates the cost of lost
ecological services by 2100
• Costs included factors such as lost agricultural
productivity from drought, damage to infrastructure
from flooding and storms, lost biological productivity,
health costs from heat stress, and lost water supplies
• The Pew report found that climate change is likely to cost
between $5 trillion and $90 trillion by 2100
• The Stern Review (2006) estimates a cost of only about 1%
of global GDP to avoid the worst impacts of climate change
22. There Are Many Ways We Can Control
Greenhouse Emissions
• We can reduce dependence on coal, which produces
more CO2 per energy unit than any other fuel
• We could institute fees for selling fossil fuels–these
would help fossil fuel prices represent their many hidden
costs
• We can invest in new technologies and energy efficiency
• We can institute emissions trading, by instituting a legal
cap on emissions, then allowing companies to buy and
sell shares of that total cap (California’s AB-32 does this)
23. A Wedge Approach Involves Dissecting
the Problem into Stepwise Solutions
• To avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2 we need to
reduce our annual carbon emissions by about 7
billion tons (=7 gigatons or GT) by 2060
• Scientists have divided these emissions into 14
“wedges”, each of which represents 1 GT of carbon
emissions avoided in the year 2060
24. Local Initiatives Are Effective
• California has greatly reduced Carbon emisions by
switching all coal burning power plants to natural gas
(decreased CO2 by 30%) & switching to green energy
production
• New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark pledged that
her country will be the first to be “carbon neutral”
• Germany has reduced its CO2 emissions at least 10
percent by switching from coal to gas and by
encouraging energy efficiency throughout society
• Denmark now gets 20% of its electricity from windmills
25. California: A long history of investing in
clean power and energy efficiency
1974 2008
26. California is a model for efficiency
∆(2005)
= 4,000kWh/yr
= $400/capita
kWh/person
United States
California
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)
27. Energy Efficiency Strategies
• Flattening out the curve – yesterday
– Decouple sales from revenues– eliminate disincentive
– Set and strengthen building and appliance standards
– Invest in utility energy efficiency programs
• Bending the curve downward– tomorrow
– Strengthen incentives– “Decoupling Plus”
– Set long term goals to achieve durable, broad-based
reductions
– Enhance strategic planning: work backwards from goals
– Improve branding, messaging and marketing
– Invest in workforce and research and development
28. • Accomplishing just half of these wedges could level off our
emissions. Accomplishing all of them could return to levels well
below those envisioned in the Kyoto protocol
Wedge Analysis
30. 22 States Committed to Regional Carbon
Markets (w/ an additional 8 “observing”)
Source:
Pew Center
31. Products and the Environment
• At first glance,
the relationship
between products
& our environment
may seem clear,
BUT….
32. Let’s consider the simple French fry
• What are its
connects to the
environment?
• What impact does it
have?
33. How did the fry get to the restaurant?
Producer
Distribution Center
Processing Plant
Suppliers
Bob’s Burger Shop
Truck
Truck
Truck
Truck
http://www.rprogress.org/
34. What impact did its journey have?
Producer
Distribution Center
Processing Plant
Suppliers
Bob’s Burger Shop
Truck
Truck
Truck
Truck
Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
Freezer
Fertilizers
Pesticides
Machinery
Hydropower
Fossil Fuels
Machinery
Fossil Fuels
Packaging
Hydroflourocarbons
Irrigation
Hydropower
Freezer
Food waste
Machinery
Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
Hydroelectric dam
Fossil Fuels
Animal Feed
Irrigation
Seeds
http://www.rprogress.org/
35. What impact did these impacts have?
Runoff
Air
Pollution
Solid
Waste
Air
Pollution Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
Freezer
Fertilizers
Pesticides
Truck
Truck
Machinery
Hydropower
Truck
Fossil Fuels
Machinery
Fossil Fuels
Damage
To Ozone
Packaging
Hydroflourocarbons
Irrigation
Hydropower
Freezer
Food waste
Machinery Producer
Distribution Center
Processing Plant
Suppliers
Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
Truck
Hydroelectric dam
Loss of
Biodiversity
Fossil Fuels
Animal Feed
Loss of
Biodiversity
Irrigation
Seeds
Fossil Fuels
Bob’s Burger Shop
Air
Pollution
http://www.rprogress.org/
36. How might all of this affect the
Earth’s systems?
Runoff
Air
Pollution
Solid
Waste
Air
Pollution Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
Freezer
Fertilizers
Pesticides
Truck
Truck
Machinery
Hydropower
Truck
Fossil Fuels
Machinery
Fossil Fuels
Damage
To Ozone
Packaging
Hydroflourocarbons
Forests
Irrigation
Forests Built-up Land
Grazing Land
Forests
River
Cropland
Hydropower
Freezer
Food waste
Machinery Producer
Distribution Center
Processing Plant
Suppliers
Bob’s Burger Shop
Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
Truck
Hydroelectric dam
Loss of
Biodiversity
Fossil Fuels
Built-up Land
Animal Feed
Loss of
Biodiversity
Irrigation
Seeds
Air
Pollution
Forests
http://www.rprogress.org/
37. We’ve considered only the potato
• Consider all the other
parts of your meal
– the other foods
– the utensils
– the napkins
– the condiments
– the drinks…
• There are multiple
environmental impacts
involved in these as well
Notes de l'éditeur
Can you reduce your ecological footprint to 1 planet??
Sustainability wedges are alterations to decrease the use of each of the bioproductive land groups through increased efficiency, conservation, recycling, resource switching, etc.
Stern, NH. 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge Press. Cambridge, UK.
In the United States, more than 700 cities and 39 states have announced their own plans to combat global warming. And 450 college campuses have pledged to reduce greenhouse emissions. Some have promised to be carbon neutral by 2020. Some corporations are following suit.
California has had almost no increase in per capita energy consumption since 1970 – the only state with such a record
Because most of our CO2 emissions come from fossil fuel combustion, energy conservation and a switch to renewable fuels probably are the first places we should look. Two wedges (2 GT reduction in carbon emissions, or about one-quarter of what is needed to stabilize emissions) could be accomplished by doubling our average fuel economy from the expected 30 miles per gallon in 2060 to 60 mpg, and by halving the number of miles driven each year by switching to walking, biking, or using mass transit. We could save another 2 GT, simply by installing the most efficient lighting and appliances available, along with improved insulation in buildings. Another wedge would be improving power plant efficiency and reducing the energy consumption of industrial processes could reduce carbon output one wedge (1 GT). Capturing and storing CO2 released by power plants, methane wells, and other large sources could save another billion tons of carbon. Much of this CO2 could be injected into oil wells to improve crude oil production. Altogether these policy changes add up to considerably more than the 7 GT per year reduction we need to make by 2058 to avoid doubling atmospheric CO2 concentrations. If we used all 14 available options, we could reverse the present trajectory and move toward zero greenhouse emissions.
In McKinsey’s “Mid-range” case, 3.0 gigatons are abated at below $50/ton CO2e, 1.1 gigatons (37% of total) comes from EE at “negative cost.”
“Mid-range case brings emissions below current levels but not as far as current legislative proposals.”
This is from December 2007 report, “Reducing GHG Emissions: How Much at What Cost?”
John Creyts speaking at NARUC ???