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Social Media and  Dynamics of Collective Action  Zeynep Tufekc i Assistant Professor University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Berkman Center for Internet & Society Harvard @techsoc  [email_address] n c.edu #freeAlaa
Durable Authoritarianism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Collective Action Problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How to Create a Collective Action Problem: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
States are resource-constrained actors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Hidden Preferences and Cascades ,[object Object],[object Object]
Some Mechanisms Social Media Alter ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Case of Egypt ,[object Object],[object Object]
This Study ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
TABLE 1. General Characteristics of the Sample Sample Characteristics 33.9% 32.9% 33.9% Attended Protests Before? 36.3% 32.9% 37.5% Present on First day of Protests? 51.5% 56.9% 49.7% Internet on Phone* 80% 90.3% 77.0 % Internet at Home*** 5.3  5.6 5.1 Education*** (1=no educ; 7=post-grad) 28.5 26.6 29.1 Age*** Mean (std error) Mean Mean Total Female Male
TABLE 1. General Characteristics of the Sample Use of Information and Communication Technologies for General Purposes 62.9 58.5 64.3 Print Use 93.6 94.3 93.3 Satellite TV Use 92.2 93.0 92.0 Phone Use 83.2 85.2 82.5 Email Use 15.3 18.2 14.3 Blog Use 62.2 66.6 60.8 Text Use 16 19.7 14.8 Twitter Use 52 60.4 49.2 Facebook Use % % % Total Female Male
TABLE 1. General Characteristics of the Sample Use of ICT for Protest Purposes 57.5 52.1 59.3 Print Use** 91.9 92.6 91.7 Satellite TV Use 81.6 86.7 80.0 Phone Use** 26.9 33.0 25.0 Email Use** 11.5 15.9 10.1 Blog Use** 46.3 48.6 45.5 Text Use 12.8 18.2 11.1 Twitter Use*** 50.7 60.0 47.7 Facebook Use*** % % % Total Female Male
  Exp(b)   Exp(b)   Exp(b)   Exp(b) Age  1.007  1.009  1.033***  1.036***  Male  1.294  1.291†  1.091  1.062  Education  1.047  0.997  1.143*  1.063   Internet at Home  1.453*  1.318  1.602*  1.394  Internet on Phone  1.092  1.031  1.169  1.123  Text Gen. Use  1.128  1.156   Facebook Gen.Use  1.252  1.342*  Twitter Gen. Use  1.536*  1.351†  Blogs Gen. Use  1.354†  1.486*  Email Gen. Use  0.799  1.020  Phone Gen. Use  1.137  0.683   Sat. TV Gen. Use  0.540*  0.815  Print Gen. Use  1.274†  1.677***  _cons  0.214***  0.342*  0.075***  N  1050  1050    1050  ll  -682.616  -67  -651.436  635.845  * p<0.05, ** p<0.01,  *** p<0.001 †  p<0.10 Model 4 Model 3 Model 2 Model 1 Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)
What the Previous Table Says: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
    Exp(b) Exp(b) Age  1.012  1.035***  Male  1.437*  1.132  Education  0.996  1.075   Internet at Home  1.233  1.441†  Internet on Phone  1.071  1.110  Text Protest Use  1.116  1.188†  Facebook Protest Use  1.411*  1.199  Twitter Protest Use  1.414†  1.221  Blogs Protest Use  1.574*  1.360  Email Protest Use  1.313†  1.152   Phone Protest Use  1.531*  1.139   Sat. TV Protest Use  0.714  0.787  Print Protest Use  0.961  1.353*  zf2fprotest  1.214  0.618†  _cons  0.140***  0.088***  N  1049  1049 ll  -662.300 -639.014  * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001  Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)
What the Previous Table Says: ,[object Object],[object Object]
Table 6. Whether Respondent Used Specific Media to Produce or Disseminate Visuals (%) 2.0 Text 2.1 Email 1 Blog 25.1 Facebook 5.1 Twitter 4.0 Face-to-face 3.2 Print 14.7 Phone 51.8 Did not produce any visuals or pictures
So: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Logistic Regression(Predictors: Use of Media to Produce & Disseminate Visuals)   Exp(b) Exp(b) Age  1.012  1.037***  Male  1.230  1.079  Education  1.012  1.123*  Internet at Home  1.367  1.543*  Internet on Phone  1.070  1.158  No Production  0.922  0.755  Phone Production  1.199  0.603  Print Production  1.695  1.108*   Face-to-Face  1.424  2.135  Twitter Production  1.322*  1.139  Facebook Production  1.685†   1.126  Blog Production  4.348  1.281  Email Production  1.448*   0.819*  Text Production  3.467*  3.161*  _cons  0.192***  0.067***  N    1050  1050 Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)
Previous Table: ,[object Object],[object Object]
Where did you first hear of the protests? % Facebook 28.3 Phone 13.1 Sat. TV   4.0 Face-to-face 48.4 Other   6.2
Protest Participation and Where first Heard of the Protests Exp(b)   Exp(b) Age  1.010  1.034***  Male  1.273  1.072  Education  1.025  1.135*  Internet at Home  1.334  1.525*  Internet on Phone  1.105  1.185  First on FB  0.830  1.020   First on Phone  0.438***  0.502**  First on TV  0.811  1.060  First other Media  0.924  1.008  _cons  0.281***  0.065***  N  1050  1050  ll  -675.694  -646.304  * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you! Questions? By Zeynep Tufekci Assistant Professor University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Fellow, Harvard Berkman Center for Internet and Society @techsoc  [email_address] n c.edu #freeAlaa

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Zeynep ausace 2011 tahrir presentation

  • 1. Social Media and Dynamics of Collective Action Zeynep Tufekc i Assistant Professor University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Berkman Center for Internet & Society Harvard @techsoc [email_address] n c.edu #freeAlaa
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  • 10. TABLE 1. General Characteristics of the Sample Sample Characteristics 33.9% 32.9% 33.9% Attended Protests Before? 36.3% 32.9% 37.5% Present on First day of Protests? 51.5% 56.9% 49.7% Internet on Phone* 80% 90.3% 77.0 % Internet at Home*** 5.3 5.6 5.1 Education*** (1=no educ; 7=post-grad) 28.5 26.6 29.1 Age*** Mean (std error) Mean Mean Total Female Male
  • 11. TABLE 1. General Characteristics of the Sample Use of Information and Communication Technologies for General Purposes 62.9 58.5 64.3 Print Use 93.6 94.3 93.3 Satellite TV Use 92.2 93.0 92.0 Phone Use 83.2 85.2 82.5 Email Use 15.3 18.2 14.3 Blog Use 62.2 66.6 60.8 Text Use 16 19.7 14.8 Twitter Use 52 60.4 49.2 Facebook Use % % % Total Female Male
  • 12. TABLE 1. General Characteristics of the Sample Use of ICT for Protest Purposes 57.5 52.1 59.3 Print Use** 91.9 92.6 91.7 Satellite TV Use 81.6 86.7 80.0 Phone Use** 26.9 33.0 25.0 Email Use** 11.5 15.9 10.1 Blog Use** 46.3 48.6 45.5 Text Use 12.8 18.2 11.1 Twitter Use*** 50.7 60.0 47.7 Facebook Use*** % % % Total Female Male
  • 13. Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b) Age 1.007 1.009 1.033*** 1.036*** Male 1.294 1.291† 1.091 1.062 Education 1.047 0.997 1.143* 1.063 Internet at Home 1.453* 1.318 1.602* 1.394 Internet on Phone 1.092 1.031 1.169 1.123 Text Gen. Use 1.128 1.156 Facebook Gen.Use 1.252 1.342* Twitter Gen. Use 1.536* 1.351† Blogs Gen. Use 1.354† 1.486* Email Gen. Use 0.799 1.020 Phone Gen. Use 1.137 0.683 Sat. TV Gen. Use 0.540* 0.815 Print Gen. Use 1.274† 1.677*** _cons 0.214*** 0.342* 0.075*** N 1050 1050 1050 ll -682.616 -67 -651.436 635.845 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 † p<0.10 Model 4 Model 3 Model 2 Model 1 Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)
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  • 15. Exp(b) Exp(b) Age 1.012 1.035*** Male 1.437* 1.132 Education 0.996 1.075 Internet at Home 1.233 1.441† Internet on Phone 1.071 1.110 Text Protest Use 1.116 1.188† Facebook Protest Use 1.411* 1.199 Twitter Protest Use 1.414† 1.221 Blogs Protest Use 1.574* 1.360 Email Protest Use 1.313† 1.152 Phone Protest Use 1.531* 1.139 Sat. TV Protest Use 0.714 0.787 Print Protest Use 0.961 1.353* zf2fprotest 1.214 0.618† _cons 0.140*** 0.088*** N 1049 1049 ll -662.300 -639.014 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)
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  • 17. Table 6. Whether Respondent Used Specific Media to Produce or Disseminate Visuals (%) 2.0 Text 2.1 Email 1 Blog 25.1 Facebook 5.1 Twitter 4.0 Face-to-face 3.2 Print 14.7 Phone 51.8 Did not produce any visuals or pictures
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  • 19. Logistic Regression(Predictors: Use of Media to Produce & Disseminate Visuals) Exp(b) Exp(b) Age 1.012 1.037*** Male 1.230 1.079 Education 1.012 1.123* Internet at Home 1.367 1.543* Internet on Phone 1.070 1.158 No Production 0.922 0.755 Phone Production 1.199 0.603 Print Production 1.695 1.108* Face-to-Face 1.424 2.135 Twitter Production 1.322* 1.139 Facebook Production 1.685† 1.126 Blog Production 4.348 1.281 Email Production 1.448* 0.819* Text Production 3.467* 3.161* _cons 0.192*** 0.067*** N 1050 1050 Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)
  • 20.
  • 21. Where did you first hear of the protests? % Facebook 28.3 Phone 13.1 Sat. TV 4.0 Face-to-face 48.4 Other 6.2
  • 22. Protest Participation and Where first Heard of the Protests Exp(b) Exp(b) Age 1.010 1.034*** Male 1.273 1.072 Education 1.025 1.135* Internet at Home 1.334 1.525* Internet on Phone 1.105 1.185 First on FB 0.830 1.020 First on Phone 0.438*** 0.502** First on TV 0.811 1.060 First other Media 0.924 1.008 _cons 0.281*** 0.065*** N 1050 1050 ll -675.694 -646.304 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)
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  • 24. Thank you! Questions? By Zeynep Tufekci Assistant Professor University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Fellow, Harvard Berkman Center for Internet and Society @techsoc [email_address] n c.edu #freeAlaa