IEA - Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 - Key Figures

1. Energy Technology
Perspectives 2010
Key graphs
© OECD/IEA - 2010

2. Key technologies for reducing global CO2
emissions under the BLUE Map scenario
ENERGY Gt CO2 60
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
TECHNOLOGY 55 CCS 19%
PERSPECTIVES 50
2010 Renewables 17%
45
Scenarios & 40 Nuclear 6%
Strategies
to 2050 35
30 Power generation efficiency
and fuel switching 5%
25
End-use fuel switching 15%
20
15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt End-use fuel and electricity
10 efficiency 38%
5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-
related CO2 emissions substantially.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

3. Primary energy demand by fuel and by scenario
8 000
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
Mtoe
ENERGY
7 000
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES 6 000
2010 5 000
-27%
Scenarios & 4 000 -36%
Strategies 3 000
to 2050
2 000
1 000
0
By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than today under
the BLUE Map scenario.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

4. Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the
Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios
60
ENERGY Gt CO2
TECHNOLOGY 50
PERSPECTIVES Other
2010 40 Buildings
Scenarios & Transport
Strategies 30
to 2050 Industry
20 Other transformation
Power generation
10
0
2007 2030 2050 2030 2050
Baseline BLUE Map
Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE
Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to
half 2005 levels by 2050.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

5. Decarbonising the electricity sector
50
PWh
Other
ENERGY 45
TECHNOLOGY Solar
PERSPECTIVES 40
Wind
2010
35 Biomass+CCS
Scenarios &
30 Biomass and waste
Strategies
to 2050 Hydro
25
Nuclear
20 Natural gas+CCS
15 Natural gas
Oil
10
Coal+CCS
5 Coal
0
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map BLUE High BLUE High Ren
2050 Nuclear 2050 2050
A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels combined with CCS
will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

6. Average annual electricity capacity additions to
2050 needed to achieve the BLUE Map scenario
ENERGY Present rate Gap to reach BLUE Map
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES Coal-fired with CCS 35 plants (500 MW)
2010 Gas-fired with CCS 20 plants (500 MW)
Nuclear Historical high 30 plants (1 000 MW)
Scenarios &
Strategies Hydro 2/3 of Three Gorges Dam
to 2050 Biomass plants 200 plants (50 MW)
Wind-onshore 12 000 turbines (4 MW)
Wind-offshore 3 600 turbines (4 MW)
Geothermal 45 units (100 MW)
Solar PV 325 million m 2 solar panels
Solar CSP 55 CSP plants (250 MW)
0 10 20 30 40 50
GW/ yr
Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon electricity
generating technologies must be massively increased from
today’s levels.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

7. Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050 in the
BLUE Map scenario vs. Baseline scenario
Greater integration of
2.50
renewables
ENERGY Gt CO2 / yr
TECHNOLOGY 2.25
Facilitation of electric vehicles
PERSPECTIVES 2.00 and plug-in electric vehicles
2010
0.34- 0.69
1.75 Energy savings from peak load
Scenarios & management
Strategies 1.50
to 2050 Continuous commissioning of
1.25 service sector loads
0.31- 0.62
1.00 0.00- 0.01 Accelerated deployment of
energy efficiency programs
0.75 0.01- 0.05
0.07- 0.27
Reduced line losses (voltage
0.50 control)
0.03- 0.25
0.25 Direct feedback on energy usage
0.09- 0.27
0.00
Direct reductions Enabled reductions
Smart grids can reduce CO2 emissions both through better
management of the grid and by facilitating the deployment of low-
© OECD/IEA - 2010
carbon technologies, such as renewables and electric vehicles.

8. Additional investment needs, BLUE Map scenario
vs. Baseline scenario
800
ENERGY 700
TECHNOLOGY 600
USD billion / yr
PERSPECTIVES Buildings
500
2010
400 Transport
Scenarios & 300
Strategies Industry
to 2050 200
100 Power sector
0
2010-2030
2030-2050
2010-2030
2010-2030
2030-2050
2030-2050
2030-2050
2010-2030
OECD Other major Emerging Least developed
economies economies countries
Over the period to 2050, most of the additional investment in low-
carbon technologies will be needed in non-OECD countries.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

9. Evolution of light-duty vehicle sales by
technology
ENERGY Baseline scenario BLUE Map scenario
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES 200 200
million sales/ yr
2010 180 180 Hydrogen fuel cell
Scenarios & 160 160 Hydrogen hybrid
Strategies 140 140 Electricity
to 2050
120 120 CNG and LPG
100 100 Plug-in hybrid diesel
80 80 Plug-in hybrid gasoline
60 60 Hybrid diesel
40 40 Hybrid gasoline
20 20 Diesel
0 Gasoline
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
In the BLUE Map scenario advanced technologies, such as plug-in
hybrid, all-electric and fuel-cell vehicles, dominate sales after 2030.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

10. World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement
by region
60
ENERGY Gt CO2 55
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
Other Non-OECD 19%
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES 50 Other major economies 14%
2010 45
India 12%
Scenarios &
40
Strategies 35 China 27%
to 2050
30 Other OECD 10%
25
OECD Europe 7%
20
15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt USA 11%
10
5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in energy-related
CO2 emissions are in non-OECD countries.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

11. Environmental co-impacts of electricity
generation technologies
ENERGY Life Cycle Impacts
(Pre- and Post-Generation) Power Generation Impacts CO2
TECHNOLOGY Energy Emissions
PERSPECTIVES Technologies Air Water Land Air Water Land t/MWh
2010
Coal - USC Baseline Technology for Relative Assessments Below 0.777
Scenarios &
Va ri a bl e / Va ri a bl e /
Strategies Pos i tive Pos i tive Mi ni ma l Mi ni ma l
to 2050
Coal - Biomass Uncertai n Uncertai n 0.622
Va ri a bl e /
Nega tive Nega tive Nega tive Nega tive Mi ni ma l
Coal - CCS Uncertai n 0.142
Va ri a bl e /
Mi ni ma l Mi ni ma l Pos i tive Pos i tive Mi ni ma l
Coal - IGCC Uncertai n 0.708
Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive
NGCC 0.403
Va ri a bl e / Va ri a bl e /
Pos i tive Pos i tive Nega tive Pos i tive
Nuclear Uncertai n Uncertai n 0.005
Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Nega tive Mi ni ma l
Solar - CSP 0.017
Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Mi ni ma l
Solar - PV 0.009
Va ri a bl e /
Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive
Wind Uncertai n 0.002
Most renewable technologies have positive environmental co-
impacts compared to current coal ultra-super critical plant.
© OECD/IEA - 2010