SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 12
Download to read offline
SUMMER 2013
Message from the
Managing Partner
Telemus Mid-Year 2013
Global Outlook
Equities
Fixed Income
Fund Spotlight: Akahi
Capital Management
Telemus Wealth
Advisors
INSIGHTS
Welcome to the next edition of our new quarterly newsletter
Insights. As we noted in our first issue in these informative pieces
you’ll hear from us, and others, regarding the current market
environment as well as a variety of investment and financial topics.
In this Summer issue you’ll hear from Jim Robinson, CIO and CEO
of Robinson Capital Management, on his current views of the
global economy and markets. Our U.S. equity market commentary
is once again from Evercore Wealth Management, the sub-advisor
of our core equity strategy. Tom Uber, the portfolio manager of
our Beacon tax-exempt bond strategy, will explain how we use
tax-exempt bonds in our portfolios and his current views of the
muni market. Our Chief Wealth Officer, Andy Bass, will discuss the
complex issues around inheriting an IRA. Finally Scott Takemoto of
Akahi Capital Management LLC, writes about the firm’s investment
strategy and the 1st half performance of the Akahi Fund L.P., a
long/short market neutral hedge fund we’re investors in for certain
clients.
Recently the financial markets have reminded investors of their
unpredictable nature. Statements made by Fed Chairman Bernanke
after the release of the FOMC minutes caused quite a stir when he
hinted that the current round of bond buying by the Fed may be
tapered if economic data warranted it. He went on to say further
that doesn’t mean the Fed intends to raise interest rates any time
2 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013
soon, it meant that the extraordinary measures in place today
may be eventually ended. The markets listened closely to what
he first said, but for some reason ignored what he said after that.
The result was a dramatic sell-off in the bond market, and to a
lesser extent the stock market. For a couple of days there it felt
like 2008 all over again as even relatively safe investments were
subject to panic selling. Sure enough after the markets unexpected
response to Bernanke’s comments a number of Fed Governors
vocalized quite publicly that the markets had misinterpreted what
the Chairman had said and that interest rates were expected to
remain low. As a result the stock market rallied back to just about
where it was before Bernanke’s comments. The bond market hasn’t
really recovered, the 10 year Treasury as of today yields 2.50%, well
above the recent low yield of 1.60% reached early in May. Given the
general positive trend in the U.S. economic recovery yields in the
bond market are unlikely to retreat much and we can expect even
higher rates if the economic recovery strengthens.
During times like these it’s our jobs as financial advisors to keep
our clients informed, and more importantly, to remain calm and
rational. In my over 30 years of experience it’s never been a good
idea to counter the markets irrational behavior with irrational
behavior of our own, and at Telemus Capital we make sure that’s
the case for all our clients.
We hope that you enjoy this second issue of Insights. If you have
any questions regarding anything contained herein please contact
us.
A Message From The Managing Partner
Gary Ran
Chairman and Partner
Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 3
U.S. Overview
Economy
As we mentioned in our beginning of the year
Global Outlook, the delay in resolution to the
Fiscal Cliff had an adverse effect on the economy
in the fourth quarter—GDP came in at a near stall
speed of 0.4%; and, the automatic sequester cuts
didn’t help the recovery from that slow growth—
Q1 2013 GDP came in at 1.8%. We believe the
economy is showing gradual, incremental
signs of improvement but we are not nearly as
optimistic as the Federal Reserve appears to be.
Economic growth for the full year will struggle to
get much above 2%; and, the unemployment rate
will likely remain at the 7-7.5% level. The story
really hasn’t changed over the past four years:
fiscal policy is non-existent due to Washington’s
political gridlock and monetary policy can only
spur so much growth.
Inflation
Some Federal Reserve Governors have recently
expressed concern about the trajectory and
absolute level of inflation. The Personal
Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed’s
preferred measure of inflation, has been declining
consistently over the past year and presently
stands just above the 1% level (below 1% is
considered to be dangerously deflationary)—
the slowest rise in prices over the past 50
years. Chairman Bernanke and the Federal
Open Market Committee have outlined a data-
dependent timeline for withdrawing quantitative
easing. Should the Fed’s optimistic projections
pan out, the Fed would begin cutting back on its
bond purchases toward the end of this year and
stop them altogether by the middle of next year.
Unfortunately, the Fed has consistently been
overly optimistic in its economic projections over
the past four years. We don’t believe quantitative
easing will end until the Fed is certain deflationary
pressures are off the table—which would equate
to a Personal Consumption Expenditures Index
closer to 2% than the current 1%.
Interest Rates
Short-term interest rates will remain low for
some time. Longer-term US Treasury yields,
which have risen significantly over the past two
months thanks to the Fed’s discussion about
removing quantitative easing, are comprised of
two component parts: a real interest rate plus
an inflation expectation. The 1% rise in the 10-
year US Treasury yield since the end of April
was comprised of a 1.25% rise in real yields and
a 0.25% decline in inflation expectations. We
would expect the real interest rate component to
rise another 0.5% when the Fed does finally cease
its quantitative easing—we don’t expect that to
happen until inflation expectations increase. As
noted above, we have more deflationary than
inflationary pressures at present. As a result,
we expect longer-term interest rates to stabilize
and likely decline a bit from these levels over
the balance of this year. Longer term we expect
the Fed will eventually succeed in engineering
higher inflation rates and therefore higher long-
term interest rates as both real interest rates and
inflation expectations rise.
Domestic Equity Markets
Stock prices follow corporate earnings and we
believe the corporate earnings environment
remains positive even as the overall economic
Telemus Mid-Year 2013 Global Outlook
Provided By Jim Robinson, Robinson Capital Management
4 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013
environment remains sluggish. We also believe
stocks will continue to benefit from an overall
reallocation from bonds to stocks by investors.
Individual investors have been woefully
underweighted in stocks since the financial
crisis, and institutional pension plans will have
a difficult time achieving 8% actuarial rates of
return with any investments in investment grade
bonds yielding 2.5%. The stock market still
offers comparable yields, far more upside, and
only slightly more downside than the investment
grade taxable bond market. We remain bullish
on the stock market over the balance of this year.
Domestic Bond Market
The domestic bond market experienced a major
re-pricing over the past two months. Investment
grade bond indices were down 4% as bond yields
rose nearly 1%--the biggest two month decline in
bond indices and rise in rates since the height
of the financial crisis in late 2008. We think
investors misinterpreted and overreacted to
the Fed’s message, and we would expect bond
yields to stabilize and likely decline modestly
over the balance of this year. Longer term we
believe bonds are a poor investment as they still
offer historically low yields, little upside and lots
of downside risk as investors experienced these
past two months. Non-traditional fixed income
securities such as senior bank loans, convertible
bonds and preferred stocks continue to provide
the most attractive risk/reward characteristics.
International Overview
Economy
Europe is in a recession and many of the
emerging market economies, particularly China,
have definitely slowed down. Central banks
across the globe, with the exception of Japan, are
looking for ways, like our own Federal Reserve
Bank, to ease their respective economies off of
the monetary stimulus drip they’ve been on for
the past several years. The monetary stimulus
policies recently adopted in Japan are having an
impact—the Japanese economy finally appears
to be emerging from two decades of deflation.
Inflation
Slowing growth in the emerging markets coupled
with most major central banks contemplating
exit strategies for monetary stimulus should keep
inflation in check. We still believe that deflation
may still be a greater risk than inflation to the
overall global economy.
Interest Rates
As with the domestic market, we expect global
short-term interest rates to remain low. Longer-
term interest rates in most major markets are
still near historic low levels. Any improvement in
economic activity will drive those rates higher—
we don’t expect that to happen over the balance
of this year.
Currencies
The dollar has had quite a run ever since the Fed
started talking about curbing its bond buying
activities. Just as we expect interest rates
to stabilize at these levels, we would expect
the dollar to do the same versus most major
currencies with the exception of the Japanese
yen—we expect the yen to continue weakening.
Natural Resources
The slowing of emerging market economies,
particularly China, and the strength in the US
dollar, has had a direct negative impact on
commodity prices. We don’t see that changing
over the balance of this year, but longer-term
we believe the emerging and frontier markets
will resume their growth trajectories and natural
resources will follow.
Global Equity Markets
While emerging market economies continue
to show signs of slowing, we believe some of
those markets’ stock valuations are becoming
attractive. At present we still have a bias toward
domestic versus international stocks; frontier
markets over emerging markets, and small cap
stocks over large cap stocks in both domestic
and developed international markets.
Global Bond Markets
Most of the weaker countries in the Eurozone
(Greece, Italy, Spain) have seen their bond yields
come down dramatically in recent months.
While we haven’t read or heard much about the
European sovereign debt crisis lately, it doesn’t
mean it’s been resolved. We believe the risk is still
there but the potential reward has been greatly
reduced. We would favor higher rated developed
European countries at these levels. We remain
underweight emerging market debt as we don’t
believe investors are being compensated for
the reduced liquidity and lower credit quality in
those markets.
Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 5
Equities
For the first quarter of 2013 the Partner’s Account
was up 10.8%, slightly ahead of the S&P 500
return of 10.6%. Through May 31st, the Partner’s
Account was up 18.4%. For the same period, the
S&P was up 15.4%.
While it has been a strong start absolutely and
relative to the market, the last several summers
have been very volatile. It appears that this
summer may well follow the same pattern.
That said, we believe that the account is well
positioned and we have both harvested some
recent gains and initiated new positions that we
hope will perform well for the balance of the year
and beyond.
For the year-to-date through May 31st , Rock-
Tenn, Western Digital and Blackstone were three
of our most significant contributors. Each of
these companies’ stock prices reacted well to
very strong first quarter earnings. Rock-Tenn
continues to execute on its operational targets
post its acquisition of Smurfit. Western Digital is
also executing very well in a difficult environment
and is showing excellent capital discipline; a
key ingredient to our thesis for the company.
Blackstone is benefitting from the ability to
refinance many of its portfolio companies debt
and extract dividends. They have also been able
bring several companies public. Additionally,
they are beginning to unlock value in their real
estate funds which ultimately should flow to the
LP holders.
On the negative side, Apple was our largest
detractor. There continues to be tremendous
skepticism about Apple’s ability to continue to
innovate. At current prices, we believe that the
stock is very inexpensive for a non-distressed
company and that cash flow will be very
significant over the next few years. American
Tower, while up modestly has been a laggard for
the year. The company continues to have solid
growth in the US and very good opportunities
internationally and the stock should perform
better prospectively.
We have sold several positions including Actavis
and Oil States. Actavis is involved in merger
discussions and the stock appreciated very
quickly. While we like the longer term prospects
we decided to take profits but may revisit when
the dust settles. Oil States also jumped in price
when an activist investor announced a large
position and desire for the company to split into
several parts. While there may be further value,
we sold on the jump in price.
We added new positions in Qualcomm (QCOM) a
leader in the design and manufacture of wireless
communication technology and Polaris (PII)
the designer manufacturer of on and off-road
vehicles and motorcycles.
We have seen a number of our company
managements at recent conferences and, overall,
business appears to be reasonably good. The
proof will obviously be in the numbers and we
look forward to seeing second quarter earnings
in the coming weeks.
Provided By Timothy Evnin, Portfolio Manager, Evercore Equities
6 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013
Successful investment portfolios resemble
successful business and sports teams, each
comprising a diverse group of specialists with
unique skills and attributes, working together
to achieve excellence, the ultimate goal of all
teams. Because their returns are tax-exempt,
municipals bonds are an essential component of
taxable fixed income allocations within high net
worth portfolios. Generally speaking, municipal
bonds are less volatile than US Treasuries and
have historically outperformed them in rising
rate environments. Municipal investors typically
“buy and hold” their bonds, making them less
actively traded. They are purchased for their
tax free income, not as trading vehicles as many
investors view Treasuries. Municipal bonds play
a defensive role in most portfolios, providing tax
free income, safety of principal and liquidity as
well as higher tax equivalent yields than taxable
securities with comparable quality.
Credit markets have been unusually active since
the Spring edition of Insights, and municipal
yields have risen dramatically.
Compare the following changes in the Municipal
Yield Curves over the last month and AAA, AA
and A rated Municipal Bonds compared to US
Treasuries:
Fixed Income
By Thomas Uber, Senior Portfolio Manager
Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 7
June was an uncharacteristically volatile month
as Fed Chairman Bernanke’s June 19 comments
about reducing asset purchases sent global
bond prices lower across all sectors. The Fed
indicated that “downside risks” have diminished,
that inflation expectations are “stable”, and that
they were lowering their outlook on inflation and
unemployment. With slight upticks in economic
forecasts, the Fed committed to reduce asset
purchases and end Quantitative Easing by next
summer, triggering a sell-off which moved yields
to higher ranges. While municipals typically
lag moves in the US Treasury market, yields
rose sharply in the face of a heavy new issue
market and rising global bond yields. Additional
market setbacks could be touched off by new
comments from the Fed, negative news affecting
the municipal market, such as recent bankruptcy
announcementsinDetroit,StocktonandJefferson
County, Alabama, and Administration challenges
to the tax exempt status of municipal bonds.
Look for volatility to continue as adjustments
to expectations will create ebbs and flows into
the bond market, remembering though, the Fed
reserves the right to change its mind as rising
interest rates will likely slow the economy.
We maintain a defensive posture within the
municipal portion of the portfolio by selecting
highly rated, AA or better, general obligation,
essential service revenue and pre-refunded
bonds with short durations, to reduce credit and
market risk. We avoid troubled states, counties
and cities. We will extend duration when we
feel reward outweighs risk. When the market
experiences dramatic setbacks, as we have this
month, we will add bonds with durations longer
than the portfolio average to take advantage of
higher yields without sacrificing credit quality.
When the opportunity doesn’t exist, we patiently
wait.
MMD Current
7/5/2013
Week Ago
6/28/2013
Month Ago
6/5/2013
UST Gross
7/5/2013
Muni/UST
7/5/2013
AAA
5 Year 1.47 1.40 .98 1.59 92.5%
10 Year 2.66 2.56 2.12 2.71 98.29%
15 Year 3.68 3.58 2.96 3.43 107.3%
20 Year 3.95 3.83 3.29 3.68 107.3%
AA
5 Year 1.66 1.59 1.15 1.59 104.4%
10 Year 2.93 2.81 2.39 2.71 108.1%
15 Year 3.97 3.86 3.24 3.43 115.7%
20 Year 4.23 4.11 3.57 3.68 114.9%
A
5 Year 1.91 1.84 1.41 1.59 120.1%
10 Year 3.41 3.31 2.83 2.71 125.8%
15 Year 4.47 4.41 3.74 3.43 130.3%
20 Year 4.70 4.58 4.06 3.68 127.7%
This piece should only be distributed to clients who are verified to be accredited investors. This not a recommendation,
advertisement or offer to sell any investment products. Please consult with your Telemus Wealth Advisor with any questions
or for advice.
Fund Spotlight: Akahi Capital
Management
Akahi Capital Management, LLC’s investment
objective is absolute returns. Our goal is to earn
positive returns regardless of the direction of the
stock market with less volatility over the long
term. To neutralize our exposure to the market’s
movement up and down, we buy stocks long in
half the portfolio (to profit in up markets) and
we sell stocks short in the other half (to profit in
down markets). To earn positive returns, we must
select stocks to buy that will go up more than
the market and select stocks to short that will
go down more than the market. The universe of
stocks that we invest in is defined as U.S. small-
cap growth. The firm manages this strategy
identically in two separate funds, Akahi Fund,
L.P. and Akahi Fund II, L.P.
Through June 2013, Akahi Fund, L.P. is up 1.57%
net of fees and expenses, Akahi Fund II, L.P.
is up 1.48% net of fees and expenses and our
benchmark, the Russell 2000 Growth Index, is up
17.44%. We are not surprised by the performance
of the funds or the performance of the market in
2013. The strategy is not designed to participate
in large market swings, up or down. For instance,
in 2008, the Russell 2000 Growth Index was
down 38.54% and Akahi Fund, L.P. was up 6.71%
net of fees and expenses (Akahi Fund II, L.P. had
not yet been created).
The market has been up strongly thus far, and
while this move might extend through year-end,
we do not anticipate this continuing without
increased volatility. Being that the funds are
hedged, the market’s direction largely did not
impact performance. However, it seemed to us
that all boats rose with the tide and investors did
not closely differentiate between more attractive
and less attractive investments. Our internal
analysis ranks stocks by risk (downside potential
if the company fails) and reward (upside potential
if the company succeeds). Our take-away from
the first half of the year is that stocks with poor
risk/reward participated in the market up swings
as much or more than companies with great risk/
reward.
For instance, in our March newsletter, we wrote
about a company that we believe has poor risk/
reward, Select Comfort Corp. (SCSS). Since
March, SCSS is up from $19.77 to $25.06. To
summarize our letter, the risk to the company
comes from competition and sales volumes in the
high-end bed market (not intended to suggest
that the SCSS is not a good company, or that
it is poorly run). The company confirmed our
assessment of its operating risk in April, when it
reported revenue and earnings estimates below
street expectations and lowered future guidance.
Despite this, the stock has risen 26.76%.
We remain focused on generating positive,
absolute returns through our research of
individual stocks. Regardless of market volatility
and direction, we believe investors will ultimately
care about what they put in their portfolios.
Provided By Scott Takemoto, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer,
Akahi Capital Management
8 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013
Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 9
Telemus Wealth Advisors
We are nearing the peak of the baby boom inheritance cycle where one of the most common assets
being left is IRAs or other retirement accounts. Due to the advantageous tax deferral nature of such
accounts, these investments were usually the last ones utilized to support the older generation.
Due to the deferred income obligation associated with these accounts, thorough and well advised
planning is critical due to varied potential income tax outcomes based on to whom and how such
accounts are transferred. The named beneficiary designation on the account is what controls the
disposition of these assets, versus what one’s will or trust documents say. Thus it is critical that
beneficiary designations are reviewed regularly to insure they are consistent with one’s wishes and
the overall estate and income tax plan of the owner.
Inherited IRA rules vary based on who is the named beneficiary and the age of the account owner
at death, however there are three basic options and each has special rules and timing requirements.
1.	 Assets can be transferred to an “Inherited IRA” where depending on the facts the assets 		
	 can be drawn down immediately without a penalty; deferred and withdrawn systematically 		
	 over a specified time period; or possibly required to be withdrawn in total by the end of the 		
	 fifth year.
2.	 If you are the spouse of the plan owner you can roll the assets into your own IRA and have 		
	 them treated as if they are your own IRA assets subject to the same rules and restrictions as 	
	 other assets in your own IRA or leave the assets in an inherited IRA.3.	
3.	 One can take a lump sum distribution and pay taxes on the full value based on your 			
	 personal tax rates.
The first thing that must be done is determining the type of plan being inherited;
•	 An IRA (including traditional or employee sponsored) and Roth IRA or
By Andrew Bass, CWM, CPA Chief Wealth Officer and Senior Advisor
10 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013
•	 A qualified retirement plan such as a profit sharing or 401(K) or a similar plan.
Then one determines who the named beneficiary is; spouse, non-spouse; trust, or estate executor
•	 If you are the spouse and are the named beneficiary of a traditional, SEP, or Simple IRA 		
	 your options are:
	 o	 Take a lump sum and pay tax in full (no penalty and full access to the after tax 			
		proceeds)
	 o	 Transfer assets to your own IRA: assets are transferred to your own IRA and you have 		
		 full discretion to choose beneficiaries. The assets are treated as yours and subject 		
		 to the same distribution rules as your other assets. If you are young and do not 		
		 need immediate access to the funds, this could be the most advantageous option 		
		 as the deferral continues in full until you reach the required beginning date for 			
		 your minimum distributions.
	 o	 Open an inherited IRA: Assets in the account continue to grow tax free and you are 		
		 not subject to the early withdrawal penalty (Note: if the account is left to multiple 		
		 beneficiaries you must establish separate beneficiary accounts by December 31 of the 	
		 year after death in order for each beneficiary to use their own single life expectancy 		
		 otherwise the oldest beneficiary’s life will control).
		 •	 If the owner was under 70 ½ at date of death; required distributions are 			
			 required to start by the later of these two dates;(1) the December 31 following 		
			 the year in which the owner died or (2) December 31 of the year in which 		
			 the account owner would have reached age 70 ½.
		 •	 If the account owner was over 70 ½; you must start taking the required 			
			 minimum distribution over your life expectancy beginning no later than the 		
			 December 31 following the year of death. (Note: if the original account owner 		
			 did not take an RMD in the year of death it must be taken by the end of 			
			that year)
•	 If the named beneficiary is a non-spouse individual, you have the following two options:
	 o	 Open an inherited IRA where the assets continue to grow. There is no early 			
		 withdrawal penalties and you can chose your beneficiaries.
		 •	 Assets are transferred into an inherited IRA in the name of the original account 	
			 owner. If the account is left to multiple beneficiaries, you must establish 			
			 separate beneficiary accounts by December 31 of the year after death so 		
			 that each beneficiary can use their own single life expectancy. 				
			 Otherwise the oldest’ s life will control.
		 •	 You can access funds whenever you like and are taxed on each distribution 		
			however:
			•	 If account holder was under age 70½ at death:
				 o	 If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution 		
					 (RMD), you must begin no later than December 31 following the
Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 11
					 year of the original account holder’s death.
				 o	 You may delay distributions until the end of the fifth year after 		
					 the year in which the original account holder died, at which time 		
					 all assets need to be fully distributed.
			 •	 If account holder was over age 70½:
				 o	 Your annual distributions are spread over your expected lifetime.
				 o	 If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution 		
					 (RMD), you must begin no later than December 31 following the 		
					 year of the original account holder’s death.
				 o	 If the original account holder did not take an RMD in the year he 		
					 or she died, you must take the distribution by the end of 			
					that year.
	 o	 Take a lump sum distribution and the assets are fully taxed at date of distribution
•	 If the named beneficiary is a trust:
	 o	 Determine if the trust is a qualified trust or a non-qualified trust (consult legal 			
		 counsel) as the rules are complex and the ultimate method of distribution will vary.
	 o	 If it is a qualified trust, the distribution period for the assets can generally be spread 		
		 over the life expectancy of the named beneficiary.
		 •	 Open an inherited IRA in the name of the original account owner for the 			
			 benefit of the trust (individuals of the trust generally cannot establish their 		
			 own inherited IRAs unless the IRA was actually distributed out by 				
			 the trust within the designated post death time period.)
		 •	 There are two ways that the trust may take distributions:
			 •	 Based on the single life expectancy of the beneficiary, if he or she is 		
				 the sole beneficiary of the trust.
			 •	 Based on the single life expectancy of the oldest beneficiary if there 		
				are multiple beneficiaries.
		 •	 If account holder was under age 70½:
			 •	 If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution (RMD), 		
				 you must begin no later than December 31 following the year of the 		
				 original account holder’s death. You may delay distributions until 			
				 the end of the fifth year after the year in which the original 				
				 account holder died, at which time all assets need to be fully distributed.
		 •	 If account holder was over age 70½:
			 •	 If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution (RMD), 		
				 you must begin no later than December 31 following the year of 			
				 the original account holder’s death.
		 •	 If the original account holder did not take an RMD in the year he or she died, 		
			 you must take the distribution by the end of that year.
	 o	 If the trust is a nonqualified trust meaning that one cannot use the “look through 		
		 rules” then it will be subject to the no designated beneficiary rule and required 			
		 distributions will be calculated under the account owner’s life expectancy or the five 		
		 year rule depending on the age when the account owner died.
As can be seen, the rules on inheriting an IRA are very complicated and need to be understood before
naming beneficiaries. Furthermore, after death, the executor and all stakeholders must be sure that
all deadlines are met regarding determining optimum ownership and if necessary distributing and
designating who the ultimate owners will be. There are different rules for other non IRA retirement
accounts which need coordination with the plan administrator and estate tax counsel to insure they
are properly designated and timely handled as well.
southfield, michigan
two towne square, suite 800
southfield, Michigan 48076
248.827.1800
fax 248.827.1808
ann arbor, michigan
110 Miller avenue, suite 300
ann arbor, Michigan 48104
734.662.1200
fax 734.662.0416
800.827.3519
telemuscapital.com

More Related Content

Recently uploaded

Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...
Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...
Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...priyasharma62062
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdfGale Pooley
 
Mira Road Memorable Call Grls Number-9833754194-Bhayandar Speciallty Call Gir...
Mira Road Memorable Call Grls Number-9833754194-Bhayandar Speciallty Call Gir...Mira Road Memorable Call Grls Number-9833754194-Bhayandar Speciallty Call Gir...
Mira Road Memorable Call Grls Number-9833754194-Bhayandar Speciallty Call Gir...priyasharma62062
 
Indore Real Estate Market Trends Report.pdf
Indore Real Estate Market Trends Report.pdfIndore Real Estate Market Trends Report.pdf
Indore Real Estate Market Trends Report.pdfSaviRakhecha1
 
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance BookingCall Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Bookingroncy bisnoi
 
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptxFinTech Belgium
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdfGale Pooley
 
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdfFinTech Belgium
 
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )Pooja Nehwal
 
VIP Independent Call Girls in Mumbai 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts ...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Mumbai 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts ...VIP Independent Call Girls in Mumbai 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts ...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Mumbai 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts ...dipikadinghjn ( Why You Choose Us? ) Escorts
 
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...
Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...Call Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
( Jasmin ) Top VIP Escorts Service Dindigul 💧 7737669865 💧 by Dindigul Call G...
( Jasmin ) Top VIP Escorts Service Dindigul 💧 7737669865 💧 by Dindigul Call G...( Jasmin ) Top VIP Escorts Service Dindigul 💧 7737669865 💧 by Dindigul Call G...
( Jasmin ) Top VIP Escorts Service Dindigul 💧 7737669865 💧 by Dindigul Call G...dipikadinghjn ( Why You Choose Us? ) Escorts
 
Solution Manual for Principles of Corporate Finance 14th Edition by Richard B...
Solution Manual for Principles of Corporate Finance 14th Edition by Richard B...Solution Manual for Principles of Corporate Finance 14th Edition by Richard B...
Solution Manual for Principles of Corporate Finance 14th Edition by Richard B...ssifa0344
 
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...dipikadinghjn ( Why You Choose Us? ) Escorts
 
VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...dipikadinghjn ( Why You Choose Us? ) Escorts
 
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptxFinTech Belgium
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 20.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 20.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 20.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 20.pdfGale Pooley
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdfGale Pooley
 
Vasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbai
Vasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbaiVasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbai
Vasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbaipriyasharma62062
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...
Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...
Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
 
Mira Road Memorable Call Grls Number-9833754194-Bhayandar Speciallty Call Gir...
Mira Road Memorable Call Grls Number-9833754194-Bhayandar Speciallty Call Gir...Mira Road Memorable Call Grls Number-9833754194-Bhayandar Speciallty Call Gir...
Mira Road Memorable Call Grls Number-9833754194-Bhayandar Speciallty Call Gir...
 
Indore Real Estate Market Trends Report.pdf
Indore Real Estate Market Trends Report.pdfIndore Real Estate Market Trends Report.pdf
Indore Real Estate Market Trends Report.pdf
 
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance BookingCall Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
 
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
 
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
 
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )
Vip Call US 📞 7738631006 ✅Call Girls In Sakinaka ( Mumbai )
 
VIP Independent Call Girls in Mumbai 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts ...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Mumbai 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts ...VIP Independent Call Girls in Mumbai 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts ...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Mumbai 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts ...
 
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...
Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...
 
( Jasmin ) Top VIP Escorts Service Dindigul 💧 7737669865 💧 by Dindigul Call G...
( Jasmin ) Top VIP Escorts Service Dindigul 💧 7737669865 💧 by Dindigul Call G...( Jasmin ) Top VIP Escorts Service Dindigul 💧 7737669865 💧 by Dindigul Call G...
( Jasmin ) Top VIP Escorts Service Dindigul 💧 7737669865 💧 by Dindigul Call G...
 
Solution Manual for Principles of Corporate Finance 14th Edition by Richard B...
Solution Manual for Principles of Corporate Finance 14th Edition by Richard B...Solution Manual for Principles of Corporate Finance 14th Edition by Richard B...
Solution Manual for Principles of Corporate Finance 14th Edition by Richard B...
 
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
 
VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Bandra West 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Esc...
 
(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7
(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7
(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7
 
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 20.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 20.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 20.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 20.pdf
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 25.pdf
 
Vasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbai
Vasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbaiVasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbai
Vasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbai
 

Featured

PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024Neil Kimberley
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)contently
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024Albert Qian
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsKurio // The Social Media Age(ncy)
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Tessa Mero
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentLily Ray
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...RachelPearson36
 
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
 
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at WorkGetSmarter
 
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...DevGAMM Conference
 

Featured (20)

Skeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture CodeSkeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture Code
 
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
 
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
 
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data ScienceIntroduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
 
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
 
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
 
ChatGPT webinar slides
ChatGPT webinar slidesChatGPT webinar slides
ChatGPT webinar slides
 
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike RoutesMore than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
 
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
 

Telemus Capital's Summer Insights Q2 2013

  • 1. SUMMER 2013 Message from the Managing Partner Telemus Mid-Year 2013 Global Outlook Equities Fixed Income Fund Spotlight: Akahi Capital Management Telemus Wealth Advisors INSIGHTS Welcome to the next edition of our new quarterly newsletter Insights. As we noted in our first issue in these informative pieces you’ll hear from us, and others, regarding the current market environment as well as a variety of investment and financial topics. In this Summer issue you’ll hear from Jim Robinson, CIO and CEO of Robinson Capital Management, on his current views of the global economy and markets. Our U.S. equity market commentary is once again from Evercore Wealth Management, the sub-advisor of our core equity strategy. Tom Uber, the portfolio manager of our Beacon tax-exempt bond strategy, will explain how we use tax-exempt bonds in our portfolios and his current views of the muni market. Our Chief Wealth Officer, Andy Bass, will discuss the complex issues around inheriting an IRA. Finally Scott Takemoto of Akahi Capital Management LLC, writes about the firm’s investment strategy and the 1st half performance of the Akahi Fund L.P., a long/short market neutral hedge fund we’re investors in for certain clients. Recently the financial markets have reminded investors of their unpredictable nature. Statements made by Fed Chairman Bernanke after the release of the FOMC minutes caused quite a stir when he hinted that the current round of bond buying by the Fed may be tapered if economic data warranted it. He went on to say further that doesn’t mean the Fed intends to raise interest rates any time
  • 2. 2 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 soon, it meant that the extraordinary measures in place today may be eventually ended. The markets listened closely to what he first said, but for some reason ignored what he said after that. The result was a dramatic sell-off in the bond market, and to a lesser extent the stock market. For a couple of days there it felt like 2008 all over again as even relatively safe investments were subject to panic selling. Sure enough after the markets unexpected response to Bernanke’s comments a number of Fed Governors vocalized quite publicly that the markets had misinterpreted what the Chairman had said and that interest rates were expected to remain low. As a result the stock market rallied back to just about where it was before Bernanke’s comments. The bond market hasn’t really recovered, the 10 year Treasury as of today yields 2.50%, well above the recent low yield of 1.60% reached early in May. Given the general positive trend in the U.S. economic recovery yields in the bond market are unlikely to retreat much and we can expect even higher rates if the economic recovery strengthens. During times like these it’s our jobs as financial advisors to keep our clients informed, and more importantly, to remain calm and rational. In my over 30 years of experience it’s never been a good idea to counter the markets irrational behavior with irrational behavior of our own, and at Telemus Capital we make sure that’s the case for all our clients. We hope that you enjoy this second issue of Insights. If you have any questions regarding anything contained herein please contact us. A Message From The Managing Partner Gary Ran Chairman and Partner
  • 3. Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 3 U.S. Overview Economy As we mentioned in our beginning of the year Global Outlook, the delay in resolution to the Fiscal Cliff had an adverse effect on the economy in the fourth quarter—GDP came in at a near stall speed of 0.4%; and, the automatic sequester cuts didn’t help the recovery from that slow growth— Q1 2013 GDP came in at 1.8%. We believe the economy is showing gradual, incremental signs of improvement but we are not nearly as optimistic as the Federal Reserve appears to be. Economic growth for the full year will struggle to get much above 2%; and, the unemployment rate will likely remain at the 7-7.5% level. The story really hasn’t changed over the past four years: fiscal policy is non-existent due to Washington’s political gridlock and monetary policy can only spur so much growth. Inflation Some Federal Reserve Governors have recently expressed concern about the trajectory and absolute level of inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, has been declining consistently over the past year and presently stands just above the 1% level (below 1% is considered to be dangerously deflationary)— the slowest rise in prices over the past 50 years. Chairman Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee have outlined a data- dependent timeline for withdrawing quantitative easing. Should the Fed’s optimistic projections pan out, the Fed would begin cutting back on its bond purchases toward the end of this year and stop them altogether by the middle of next year. Unfortunately, the Fed has consistently been overly optimistic in its economic projections over the past four years. We don’t believe quantitative easing will end until the Fed is certain deflationary pressures are off the table—which would equate to a Personal Consumption Expenditures Index closer to 2% than the current 1%. Interest Rates Short-term interest rates will remain low for some time. Longer-term US Treasury yields, which have risen significantly over the past two months thanks to the Fed’s discussion about removing quantitative easing, are comprised of two component parts: a real interest rate plus an inflation expectation. The 1% rise in the 10- year US Treasury yield since the end of April was comprised of a 1.25% rise in real yields and a 0.25% decline in inflation expectations. We would expect the real interest rate component to rise another 0.5% when the Fed does finally cease its quantitative easing—we don’t expect that to happen until inflation expectations increase. As noted above, we have more deflationary than inflationary pressures at present. As a result, we expect longer-term interest rates to stabilize and likely decline a bit from these levels over the balance of this year. Longer term we expect the Fed will eventually succeed in engineering higher inflation rates and therefore higher long- term interest rates as both real interest rates and inflation expectations rise. Domestic Equity Markets Stock prices follow corporate earnings and we believe the corporate earnings environment remains positive even as the overall economic Telemus Mid-Year 2013 Global Outlook Provided By Jim Robinson, Robinson Capital Management
  • 4. 4 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 environment remains sluggish. We also believe stocks will continue to benefit from an overall reallocation from bonds to stocks by investors. Individual investors have been woefully underweighted in stocks since the financial crisis, and institutional pension plans will have a difficult time achieving 8% actuarial rates of return with any investments in investment grade bonds yielding 2.5%. The stock market still offers comparable yields, far more upside, and only slightly more downside than the investment grade taxable bond market. We remain bullish on the stock market over the balance of this year. Domestic Bond Market The domestic bond market experienced a major re-pricing over the past two months. Investment grade bond indices were down 4% as bond yields rose nearly 1%--the biggest two month decline in bond indices and rise in rates since the height of the financial crisis in late 2008. We think investors misinterpreted and overreacted to the Fed’s message, and we would expect bond yields to stabilize and likely decline modestly over the balance of this year. Longer term we believe bonds are a poor investment as they still offer historically low yields, little upside and lots of downside risk as investors experienced these past two months. Non-traditional fixed income securities such as senior bank loans, convertible bonds and preferred stocks continue to provide the most attractive risk/reward characteristics. International Overview Economy Europe is in a recession and many of the emerging market economies, particularly China, have definitely slowed down. Central banks across the globe, with the exception of Japan, are looking for ways, like our own Federal Reserve Bank, to ease their respective economies off of the monetary stimulus drip they’ve been on for the past several years. The monetary stimulus policies recently adopted in Japan are having an impact—the Japanese economy finally appears to be emerging from two decades of deflation. Inflation Slowing growth in the emerging markets coupled with most major central banks contemplating exit strategies for monetary stimulus should keep inflation in check. We still believe that deflation may still be a greater risk than inflation to the overall global economy. Interest Rates As with the domestic market, we expect global short-term interest rates to remain low. Longer- term interest rates in most major markets are still near historic low levels. Any improvement in economic activity will drive those rates higher— we don’t expect that to happen over the balance of this year. Currencies The dollar has had quite a run ever since the Fed started talking about curbing its bond buying activities. Just as we expect interest rates to stabilize at these levels, we would expect the dollar to do the same versus most major currencies with the exception of the Japanese yen—we expect the yen to continue weakening. Natural Resources The slowing of emerging market economies, particularly China, and the strength in the US dollar, has had a direct negative impact on commodity prices. We don’t see that changing over the balance of this year, but longer-term we believe the emerging and frontier markets will resume their growth trajectories and natural resources will follow. Global Equity Markets While emerging market economies continue to show signs of slowing, we believe some of those markets’ stock valuations are becoming attractive. At present we still have a bias toward domestic versus international stocks; frontier markets over emerging markets, and small cap stocks over large cap stocks in both domestic and developed international markets. Global Bond Markets Most of the weaker countries in the Eurozone (Greece, Italy, Spain) have seen their bond yields come down dramatically in recent months. While we haven’t read or heard much about the European sovereign debt crisis lately, it doesn’t mean it’s been resolved. We believe the risk is still there but the potential reward has been greatly reduced. We would favor higher rated developed European countries at these levels. We remain underweight emerging market debt as we don’t believe investors are being compensated for the reduced liquidity and lower credit quality in those markets.
  • 5. Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 5 Equities For the first quarter of 2013 the Partner’s Account was up 10.8%, slightly ahead of the S&P 500 return of 10.6%. Through May 31st, the Partner’s Account was up 18.4%. For the same period, the S&P was up 15.4%. While it has been a strong start absolutely and relative to the market, the last several summers have been very volatile. It appears that this summer may well follow the same pattern. That said, we believe that the account is well positioned and we have both harvested some recent gains and initiated new positions that we hope will perform well for the balance of the year and beyond. For the year-to-date through May 31st , Rock- Tenn, Western Digital and Blackstone were three of our most significant contributors. Each of these companies’ stock prices reacted well to very strong first quarter earnings. Rock-Tenn continues to execute on its operational targets post its acquisition of Smurfit. Western Digital is also executing very well in a difficult environment and is showing excellent capital discipline; a key ingredient to our thesis for the company. Blackstone is benefitting from the ability to refinance many of its portfolio companies debt and extract dividends. They have also been able bring several companies public. Additionally, they are beginning to unlock value in their real estate funds which ultimately should flow to the LP holders. On the negative side, Apple was our largest detractor. There continues to be tremendous skepticism about Apple’s ability to continue to innovate. At current prices, we believe that the stock is very inexpensive for a non-distressed company and that cash flow will be very significant over the next few years. American Tower, while up modestly has been a laggard for the year. The company continues to have solid growth in the US and very good opportunities internationally and the stock should perform better prospectively. We have sold several positions including Actavis and Oil States. Actavis is involved in merger discussions and the stock appreciated very quickly. While we like the longer term prospects we decided to take profits but may revisit when the dust settles. Oil States also jumped in price when an activist investor announced a large position and desire for the company to split into several parts. While there may be further value, we sold on the jump in price. We added new positions in Qualcomm (QCOM) a leader in the design and manufacture of wireless communication technology and Polaris (PII) the designer manufacturer of on and off-road vehicles and motorcycles. We have seen a number of our company managements at recent conferences and, overall, business appears to be reasonably good. The proof will obviously be in the numbers and we look forward to seeing second quarter earnings in the coming weeks. Provided By Timothy Evnin, Portfolio Manager, Evercore Equities
  • 6. 6 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 Successful investment portfolios resemble successful business and sports teams, each comprising a diverse group of specialists with unique skills and attributes, working together to achieve excellence, the ultimate goal of all teams. Because their returns are tax-exempt, municipals bonds are an essential component of taxable fixed income allocations within high net worth portfolios. Generally speaking, municipal bonds are less volatile than US Treasuries and have historically outperformed them in rising rate environments. Municipal investors typically “buy and hold” their bonds, making them less actively traded. They are purchased for their tax free income, not as trading vehicles as many investors view Treasuries. Municipal bonds play a defensive role in most portfolios, providing tax free income, safety of principal and liquidity as well as higher tax equivalent yields than taxable securities with comparable quality. Credit markets have been unusually active since the Spring edition of Insights, and municipal yields have risen dramatically. Compare the following changes in the Municipal Yield Curves over the last month and AAA, AA and A rated Municipal Bonds compared to US Treasuries: Fixed Income By Thomas Uber, Senior Portfolio Manager
  • 7. Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 7 June was an uncharacteristically volatile month as Fed Chairman Bernanke’s June 19 comments about reducing asset purchases sent global bond prices lower across all sectors. The Fed indicated that “downside risks” have diminished, that inflation expectations are “stable”, and that they were lowering their outlook on inflation and unemployment. With slight upticks in economic forecasts, the Fed committed to reduce asset purchases and end Quantitative Easing by next summer, triggering a sell-off which moved yields to higher ranges. While municipals typically lag moves in the US Treasury market, yields rose sharply in the face of a heavy new issue market and rising global bond yields. Additional market setbacks could be touched off by new comments from the Fed, negative news affecting the municipal market, such as recent bankruptcy announcementsinDetroit,StocktonandJefferson County, Alabama, and Administration challenges to the tax exempt status of municipal bonds. Look for volatility to continue as adjustments to expectations will create ebbs and flows into the bond market, remembering though, the Fed reserves the right to change its mind as rising interest rates will likely slow the economy. We maintain a defensive posture within the municipal portion of the portfolio by selecting highly rated, AA or better, general obligation, essential service revenue and pre-refunded bonds with short durations, to reduce credit and market risk. We avoid troubled states, counties and cities. We will extend duration when we feel reward outweighs risk. When the market experiences dramatic setbacks, as we have this month, we will add bonds with durations longer than the portfolio average to take advantage of higher yields without sacrificing credit quality. When the opportunity doesn’t exist, we patiently wait. MMD Current 7/5/2013 Week Ago 6/28/2013 Month Ago 6/5/2013 UST Gross 7/5/2013 Muni/UST 7/5/2013 AAA 5 Year 1.47 1.40 .98 1.59 92.5% 10 Year 2.66 2.56 2.12 2.71 98.29% 15 Year 3.68 3.58 2.96 3.43 107.3% 20 Year 3.95 3.83 3.29 3.68 107.3% AA 5 Year 1.66 1.59 1.15 1.59 104.4% 10 Year 2.93 2.81 2.39 2.71 108.1% 15 Year 3.97 3.86 3.24 3.43 115.7% 20 Year 4.23 4.11 3.57 3.68 114.9% A 5 Year 1.91 1.84 1.41 1.59 120.1% 10 Year 3.41 3.31 2.83 2.71 125.8% 15 Year 4.47 4.41 3.74 3.43 130.3% 20 Year 4.70 4.58 4.06 3.68 127.7%
  • 8. This piece should only be distributed to clients who are verified to be accredited investors. This not a recommendation, advertisement or offer to sell any investment products. Please consult with your Telemus Wealth Advisor with any questions or for advice. Fund Spotlight: Akahi Capital Management Akahi Capital Management, LLC’s investment objective is absolute returns. Our goal is to earn positive returns regardless of the direction of the stock market with less volatility over the long term. To neutralize our exposure to the market’s movement up and down, we buy stocks long in half the portfolio (to profit in up markets) and we sell stocks short in the other half (to profit in down markets). To earn positive returns, we must select stocks to buy that will go up more than the market and select stocks to short that will go down more than the market. The universe of stocks that we invest in is defined as U.S. small- cap growth. The firm manages this strategy identically in two separate funds, Akahi Fund, L.P. and Akahi Fund II, L.P. Through June 2013, Akahi Fund, L.P. is up 1.57% net of fees and expenses, Akahi Fund II, L.P. is up 1.48% net of fees and expenses and our benchmark, the Russell 2000 Growth Index, is up 17.44%. We are not surprised by the performance of the funds or the performance of the market in 2013. The strategy is not designed to participate in large market swings, up or down. For instance, in 2008, the Russell 2000 Growth Index was down 38.54% and Akahi Fund, L.P. was up 6.71% net of fees and expenses (Akahi Fund II, L.P. had not yet been created). The market has been up strongly thus far, and while this move might extend through year-end, we do not anticipate this continuing without increased volatility. Being that the funds are hedged, the market’s direction largely did not impact performance. However, it seemed to us that all boats rose with the tide and investors did not closely differentiate between more attractive and less attractive investments. Our internal analysis ranks stocks by risk (downside potential if the company fails) and reward (upside potential if the company succeeds). Our take-away from the first half of the year is that stocks with poor risk/reward participated in the market up swings as much or more than companies with great risk/ reward. For instance, in our March newsletter, we wrote about a company that we believe has poor risk/ reward, Select Comfort Corp. (SCSS). Since March, SCSS is up from $19.77 to $25.06. To summarize our letter, the risk to the company comes from competition and sales volumes in the high-end bed market (not intended to suggest that the SCSS is not a good company, or that it is poorly run). The company confirmed our assessment of its operating risk in April, when it reported revenue and earnings estimates below street expectations and lowered future guidance. Despite this, the stock has risen 26.76%. We remain focused on generating positive, absolute returns through our research of individual stocks. Regardless of market volatility and direction, we believe investors will ultimately care about what they put in their portfolios. Provided By Scott Takemoto, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, Akahi Capital Management 8 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013
  • 9. Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 9 Telemus Wealth Advisors We are nearing the peak of the baby boom inheritance cycle where one of the most common assets being left is IRAs or other retirement accounts. Due to the advantageous tax deferral nature of such accounts, these investments were usually the last ones utilized to support the older generation. Due to the deferred income obligation associated with these accounts, thorough and well advised planning is critical due to varied potential income tax outcomes based on to whom and how such accounts are transferred. The named beneficiary designation on the account is what controls the disposition of these assets, versus what one’s will or trust documents say. Thus it is critical that beneficiary designations are reviewed regularly to insure they are consistent with one’s wishes and the overall estate and income tax plan of the owner. Inherited IRA rules vary based on who is the named beneficiary and the age of the account owner at death, however there are three basic options and each has special rules and timing requirements. 1. Assets can be transferred to an “Inherited IRA” where depending on the facts the assets can be drawn down immediately without a penalty; deferred and withdrawn systematically over a specified time period; or possibly required to be withdrawn in total by the end of the fifth year. 2. If you are the spouse of the plan owner you can roll the assets into your own IRA and have them treated as if they are your own IRA assets subject to the same rules and restrictions as other assets in your own IRA or leave the assets in an inherited IRA.3. 3. One can take a lump sum distribution and pay taxes on the full value based on your personal tax rates. The first thing that must be done is determining the type of plan being inherited; • An IRA (including traditional or employee sponsored) and Roth IRA or By Andrew Bass, CWM, CPA Chief Wealth Officer and Senior Advisor
  • 10. 10 | Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 • A qualified retirement plan such as a profit sharing or 401(K) or a similar plan. Then one determines who the named beneficiary is; spouse, non-spouse; trust, or estate executor • If you are the spouse and are the named beneficiary of a traditional, SEP, or Simple IRA your options are: o Take a lump sum and pay tax in full (no penalty and full access to the after tax proceeds) o Transfer assets to your own IRA: assets are transferred to your own IRA and you have full discretion to choose beneficiaries. The assets are treated as yours and subject to the same distribution rules as your other assets. If you are young and do not need immediate access to the funds, this could be the most advantageous option as the deferral continues in full until you reach the required beginning date for your minimum distributions. o Open an inherited IRA: Assets in the account continue to grow tax free and you are not subject to the early withdrawal penalty (Note: if the account is left to multiple beneficiaries you must establish separate beneficiary accounts by December 31 of the year after death in order for each beneficiary to use their own single life expectancy otherwise the oldest beneficiary’s life will control). • If the owner was under 70 ½ at date of death; required distributions are required to start by the later of these two dates;(1) the December 31 following the year in which the owner died or (2) December 31 of the year in which the account owner would have reached age 70 ½. • If the account owner was over 70 ½; you must start taking the required minimum distribution over your life expectancy beginning no later than the December 31 following the year of death. (Note: if the original account owner did not take an RMD in the year of death it must be taken by the end of that year) • If the named beneficiary is a non-spouse individual, you have the following two options: o Open an inherited IRA where the assets continue to grow. There is no early withdrawal penalties and you can chose your beneficiaries. • Assets are transferred into an inherited IRA in the name of the original account owner. If the account is left to multiple beneficiaries, you must establish separate beneficiary accounts by December 31 of the year after death so that each beneficiary can use their own single life expectancy. Otherwise the oldest’ s life will control. • You can access funds whenever you like and are taxed on each distribution however: • If account holder was under age 70½ at death: o If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution (RMD), you must begin no later than December 31 following the
  • 11. Telemus Capital | Summer 2013 | 11 year of the original account holder’s death. o You may delay distributions until the end of the fifth year after the year in which the original account holder died, at which time all assets need to be fully distributed. • If account holder was over age 70½: o Your annual distributions are spread over your expected lifetime. o If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution (RMD), you must begin no later than December 31 following the year of the original account holder’s death. o If the original account holder did not take an RMD in the year he or she died, you must take the distribution by the end of that year. o Take a lump sum distribution and the assets are fully taxed at date of distribution • If the named beneficiary is a trust: o Determine if the trust is a qualified trust or a non-qualified trust (consult legal counsel) as the rules are complex and the ultimate method of distribution will vary. o If it is a qualified trust, the distribution period for the assets can generally be spread over the life expectancy of the named beneficiary. • Open an inherited IRA in the name of the original account owner for the benefit of the trust (individuals of the trust generally cannot establish their own inherited IRAs unless the IRA was actually distributed out by the trust within the designated post death time period.) • There are two ways that the trust may take distributions: • Based on the single life expectancy of the beneficiary, if he or she is the sole beneficiary of the trust. • Based on the single life expectancy of the oldest beneficiary if there are multiple beneficiaries. • If account holder was under age 70½: • If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution (RMD), you must begin no later than December 31 following the year of the original account holder’s death. You may delay distributions until the end of the fifth year after the year in which the original account holder died, at which time all assets need to be fully distributed. • If account holder was over age 70½: • If you intend to take an annual Required Minimum Distribution (RMD), you must begin no later than December 31 following the year of the original account holder’s death. • If the original account holder did not take an RMD in the year he or she died, you must take the distribution by the end of that year. o If the trust is a nonqualified trust meaning that one cannot use the “look through rules” then it will be subject to the no designated beneficiary rule and required distributions will be calculated under the account owner’s life expectancy or the five year rule depending on the age when the account owner died. As can be seen, the rules on inheriting an IRA are very complicated and need to be understood before naming beneficiaries. Furthermore, after death, the executor and all stakeholders must be sure that all deadlines are met regarding determining optimum ownership and if necessary distributing and designating who the ultimate owners will be. There are different rules for other non IRA retirement accounts which need coordination with the plan administrator and estate tax counsel to insure they are properly designated and timely handled as well.
  • 12. southfield, michigan two towne square, suite 800 southfield, Michigan 48076 248.827.1800 fax 248.827.1808 ann arbor, michigan 110 Miller avenue, suite 300 ann arbor, Michigan 48104 734.662.1200 fax 734.662.0416 800.827.3519 telemuscapital.com