Texas Drought Presentation Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District October 11, 2011

1. Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District October 11, 2011 2010-2011 Drought

2. Texas Annual Rainfall

3. Texas Annual Rainfall 1895-2010

4. Texas Annual Temperature 1895-2010

5. Notice Any Trends?

6. Texas Spring Rainfall 1895-2010 Less Spring rainfall since 1950

7. Texas Summer Rainfall 1895-2010 Greater summer rainfall since 1960

8. Texas Fall Rainfall 1895-2010 Greater Fall rainfall since 1960

9. Texas Winter Rainfall 1895-2010 Less winter rainfall since 1950

11. 2010 Texas Rainfall

12. 2010 Texas Rainfall Departures DRY WET

13. 2010-2011 Texas Rainfall Departures (Sept 10- Oct 11)

14. 2011 Drought Conditions

16. 2011 Drought Conditions Lake Levels and Capacity Oct 21 Lake Conroe: -6.86 (71%) Lake Houston: -5.60 (74%) Lake Livingston: -4.00 (83%) Lake Somerville: -10.03 (39%) Lake Texana: -11.59 (44%) Lake Buchanan: -28.45 (41%) Lake Travis: -52.86 (36%) Lake Georgetown: -25.36 (34%) Toledo Bend: -11.90 (59%) Sam Rayburn: -13.14 (56%) Lake Houston Lake Travis Lake Travis

17. Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <>

18. Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB <>

19. 2011 Drought Conditions March 30 October 19 Mandatory: 636 Voluntary: 311 Mandatory: 33 Voluntary: 34

21. Texas Wildfires – Labor Day Weekend Bastrop Complex: 34,036 acres 2 fatalities 1554 homes lost 5,000 evacuated 1351 ground personnel, 14 aircraft Tri-County: 18,638 acres 63 homes lost (23 damaged) 8,000 evacuated 698 ground personnel, 16 aircraft 20.8 million acre feet of timber burned (12.8 million in value) 12 large fires, Labor Day 2011 Over 2,000 homes lost in 3-4 days

22. Texas Burn Ban Map 229 out of 254 counties under burn bans, old record was 221 in 2006

23. Fire Fuel Conditions KBDI Index AUSTIN 632 GALVESTON 606 BRAZOS 664 BURLESON 708 BASTROP 615 COLORADO 682 FORT BEND 648 GRIMES 638 HARRIS 552 HOUSTON 741 JACKSON 690 LIBERTY 677 MADISON 692 MATAGORDA 614 MONTGOMERY 630 POLK 704 SAN JACINTO 647 TRINITY 714 WALKER 710 WALLER 568 WASHINGTON 671 WHARTON 668

25. 2010-2011 Drought Top 5 Driest Feb-Oct 19 Periods for Houston: 2011 – 10.20 in (22.6% of normal) 1917 - 13.93 in 1930 - 15.89 in 1956 – 15.95 in 1925 – 16.69 in Top 5 Driest Jan 1-Oct 14 Periods for Houston: 1917-15.22 in 2011-15.25 in 1956- 19.24 in 1930 – 19.41 in 1988 – 19.49 in 1.1950-1957 (Sept 1956 peak) 2. 2010-? 3. 1916-1918 (Aug 1918 peak) 4. 1924-1925 (July 1925 peak) 5. 1999-2000 (Sept 2000 peak Texas Drought Rankings 3.73 inches of rain required at IAH to move to second place and .76 inches at Hobby (5.11 fell at Hobby on Oct 9…still in first place) Drought Lowest PDSI 2010-2011 -7.97 AUG 2011 1951-1957 -7.80 SEP 1956 1916-1918 -7.09 AUG 1918 1924-1925 -6.10 JUL 1925 1999-2000 -5.51 SEP 2000

26. 2010-2011 Drought Driest 12-Month Period Ever (September 22, 2010 to September 23, 2011) Red: broke previous record by over 10 inches Orange: broke previous record by over 5 inches Location Rainfall (in) (9-22-10 to 9-23-11) Previous Rainfall Record (in) Record Exceedance (in) Bellville 12.75 19.90 (1987-88) 7.15 Brenham 16.10 13.76 (1924-25) 2.34 Columbus 14.84 17.57 (1955-56) 2.73 Conroe 17.42 22.51 (1924-25) 5.09 Freeport 17.98 24.77 (1953-54) 6.79 BUSH IAH 17.71 23.25 (1916-17) 5.54 Huntsville 15.31 18.09 (1916-17) 2.78 Katy 14.67 27.31 (1987-88) 12.64 Livingston 17.77 31.35 (1947-48) 13.58 Somerville 14.83 19.77 (1970-71) 4.94 Tomball 12.44 22.15 (1960-61) 9.71 Wash on the Brazos 14.52 24.44 (1955-56) 9.92

27. 2010-2011 Drought Bellville: -28.19 Brenham: -28.43 College Station: -25.05 Columbus: -27.88 Conroe: -30.64 Freeport: -31.80 Hobby: -27.44 IAH: -28.57 Katy: -26.20 Livingston: -34.45 Matagorda: -28.83 Huntsville: -31.76 Victoria: -28.51 Tomball: -36.10 Rainfall Deficits (Oct 1 2010 to Oct 14 2011) Galveston: -40.91 Houston IAH: -28.89 Houston Hobby: -32.78 College Station: -29.20 Richmond: -38.51 Bay City: -36.74 Wharton: -34.46 Livingston: -43.28 Rainfall Deficits since Hurricane Ike Have been in mild drought since Ike, but the last 8 months have been brutal October 2010 to September 2011: Driest 1-year period ever for state of TX

28. 2010-2011 Drought 2011 Driest water year on record for Texas

30. 2010-2011 Drought Most areas would require 25-35 inches of rainfall to bring them to near normal conditions and end the drought

31. 2011-2013 ENSO Forecast Models La Nina El Nino Neutral

32. La Nina Impacts

33. La Nina Impacts

34. 2011 Drought Forecast

35. Rainfall Forecast 8-14 days 1 month 3 months

36. Questions