Presentation given to CCCW by UKCCC 2013

1. Meeting carbon budgets:
5th Progress Report to
Parliament, June 2013

2. CO2 emissions rose 3.5% in 2012 in the context of colder
winter weather and a gas-to-coal switch in power
generation. Small underlying emissions reduction
#cccprog13

3. Key messages
• Limited progress on solid wall insulation, low-carbon heat and energy
efficiency improvements in commercial and industrial sectors.
• Underlying emissions reductions not enough to meet the 3rd and 4th carbon
budgets – further Government action required to strengthen policies this
Parliament.
• Economy-wide emissions rose 3.5% – due to relatively cold winter months
compared to 2011 and switching from gas to coal in power generation.
• Good progress on some measures such as adding new wind generation,
insulating lofts and cavity walls, and improving the efficiency of new cars – but
challenges sustaining progress in future.
#cccprog13

4. 4th carbon budget
review
Wales Climate Change
Commission, Swansea
19th September 2013

5. Context for the fourth carbon budget review (2023-27)
Govt proposal for setting the fourth carbon budget, Policy Statement, May 2011
The review: If, at that time [2014], our domestic commitments place us on a
different emissions trajectory than the EU ETS trajectory agreed by the EU, we will,
as appropriate, revise up our budget to align it with the actual EU trajectory.
5
CCC advice, The Fourth Carbon Budget, December 2010
• 2050 80% target remains appropriate
• Should aim for a 60% reduction by 2030
• Legislate a fourth budget of 1950 MtCO2e
• Aim to deliver it through domestic (UK) action
• Be prepared to adjust the budget in the context of a
global/EU deal

6. Process for the fourth budget review
6
The Climate Change Act (21 – alteration of carbon budgets)
[A carbon budget] may be amended...only if it appears to the Secretary of State that,
since the budget was originally set (or previously altered), there have been
significant changes affecting the basis on which the previous decision was made.
The Climate Change Act (8 & 10) - criteria
• Science
• International/European
• Technology / economics
• Meeting the 2050 target
• Competitiveness
• Fiscal
• Fuel poverty
• Energy supply
• Devolved circumstances
The Climate Change Act (22)
Before laying an order under section 21,
the Secretary of State must obtain, and
take into account, the advice of the
Committee on Climate Change
Given latest evidence, would a change in the budget better put the UK on the
cost-effective path to the 2050 target while managing the budget’s impacts,
international interactions and climate risks?

7. CCC workplan for the fourth budget review
Science
International
Scenarios
• Competitiveness and carbon footprint report (April
2013)
• Review latest EU and UNFCCC positions/expectations;
compare to current 4th budget
• Ongoing recession
• Impact of shale gas
• Latest emissions projections
• Latest evidence on abatement potential
• Robustness to different assumptions
• Review of latest scientific understanding, notably IPCC
WG1 report in September 2013
• Modelling of emissions pathways and climate response
under various assumptions
Call for evidence (http://www.theccc.org.uk/call-for-evidence/)
Stakeholder workshops: Business, Scenarios, Science, International

8. Review will consider whether budget should be
loosened or tightened
Also: Should the budget be tightened to reflect headroom due to significantly
lower emissions projections? Does headroom imply uncertainty?
And: Would a change in the budget by definition increase uncertainty?
UEP = DECC’s Updated
Energy and Emissions
Projections
Govt: Should the budget be loosened to align to EU default trajectory?

9. Electricity
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Non-CO2
Lots of efficiency (e.g. 3.5m SWIs)
25% heat from heat pumps
limited district heating
Decarbonise to 50 gCO2/kWh through:
Efficiency, Nuclear, Renewables, CCS
New cars @ 80 g/km
Electric vehicle penetration 60%
Minimal biofuels
Some efficiency
Some use of scarce bioenergy
Some CCS
Efficiency on farms
Divert waste from landfill
Possible behaviour change
A 2030 scenario that would meet the budget
Aim for this
level of
abatement and
adjust balance
between sectors
and
technologies as
learn more
bold = primarily for preparing for 2050

10. Questions for discussion
Does the scientific case for action remain and are we still
moving towards a carbon-constrained world?
Are the scenarios proposed by the CCC still feasible and
cost-effective on the path to the 2050 target?
How would a change in the UK budget affect:
• Attractiveness to low-carbon investors and business
confidence?
• Competitiveness, affordability and the economy?
• Deliverability of Welsh programmes and targets?