1. Corporate slide master
Welsh Government
Emission Reduction Performance
With guidelines for corporate presentations
Indicators
Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid Hinsawdd
Climate Change Commission for Wales 23rd Meeting
1-2 October 2012, Bangor University
Dr Ross Hunter
Ross.Hunter@wales.gsi.gov.uk
Dr Simon Baldwin
Simon.Baldwin@wales.gsi.gov.uk
Science Advice Branch

2. Contents
• Background
– Climate Change Strategy for Wales
– Targets
– Emission Reduction Delivery Plan
• Emission Reduction Performance Indicators
– What is an indicator
– Indicator framework
• Further development and gaps
• Presentation and communication

3. Why do we need indicators?
• Climate Change Strategy for Wales (2010) set two high level
targets for emission reductions in Wales
– 3% target
Commitment to reduce emissions within areas of devolved
competence by 3% each year from 2011, against a baseline of average
emissions over the period 2006-2010.
– 40% target
Commitment to reduce all Welsh emissions by 40% from 1990 levels
by 2020 in line with UK target

4. How will WG achieve emission reduction
targets?
• Emission Reduction Delivery Plan published
alongside the Climate Change Strategy for Wales
• Highlights actions that Welsh Government will
take to help deliver emission reductions
• For each sector key UK and Welsh policies that
are likely to deliver emissions savings were
identified and where possible, expected emission
savings were calculated
• The CCS for Wales committed to monitor and
evaluate progress against emission reduction
policies

5. Emission Reduction Performance
Indicators
• The emission reduction performance indicators have been
developed to
– provide a measure of progress against the policies and measures
identified within the Climate Change Strategy Delivery Plan for Emission
Reduction
– supplement the overall tracking of the 3% target for Wales
• Indicator suite was developed 2011-12 in consultation with key WG
sector policy/evidence leads

6. What is an indicator?
• Environment Indicators are • Environment Indicators are
generally not
– An indication of – A direct measure of
progress progress linking policy
– A measure of direction delivery to GHG
of travel emission reductions
– Used to show visually
the condition of a policy
– A trigger for further
action

7. Indicator structure
• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’
Sector carbon dioxide equivalent
Tier One emissions
CO2e emission estimates consistent with the 3% target
Activity Data
Tier Two Activity data used to compile the Greenhouse Gas
Inventory for Wales
Policy
Tier Three Monitors things Welsh Government is actively doing to
reduce GHG emissions. Provide an indication of how
individual actions and policies are performing

8. Tier One
• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’
Sector carbon dioxide equivalent
Tier One
emissions
CO2e emission estimates consistent with the 3% target
• One per sector e.g. Transport Indicator 1 (TI1)
• GHG emissions in areas of Transport sector GHG emissions
devolved competence
• Measured against 2006-10
baseline
Policy Indicator Data
Transport sector GHG emissions Baseline (2006-2009 average)
8
Emissions in Mt CO equivalent
7
Transport 6
WT1-
2
5
All sector GHG TI1 1 
11 4
emissions 3
2
1
0
2006 2007 2008 2009

9. Tier two
• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’
Activity Data
Tier Two
Activity data used to compile the Greenhouse Gas
Inventory for Wales
• Handful per sector e.g. Transport Indicator 2 (TI2)
• Activity data Total distance travelled by road vehicles
• Measured against
2006-10 baseline
Policy Indicator Data
All motor vehicles Baseline (2006-2009 average)
WT1 Sustainable Travel Centres. 30
billion vehicle kilometres
28
WT2 Smarter Choices. Total distance 26
travelled - 2  24
Travel planning and provision
WT3 of personalised travel Vehicle kms 22
20
information. 18
0
2006 2007 2008 2009

10. Tier Three
• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’
Policy
Tier Three Monitors things Welsh Government is actively doing to
reduce GHG emissions. Provide an indication of how
individual actions and policies are performing
• Many per sector e.g. Transport Indicator 5(TI5)
• Not directly linked Percentage of people travelling to work whose main
to emission mode of travel to work is cycling or walking
• Measured against
2006-10 baseline
Policy Indicator Data
WT1 Sustainable Travel Centres. Total % walking or cycling Baseline (2006-2009 average)
Percentage of 14%
WT2 Smarter Choices.
people travelling
People walking or cycling - %
12%
10%
WT3
Travel planning and provision of personalised travel
information.
to work whose 8%
main mode of TI5 3  6%
WT4 Developing a series of strategic modal interchanges.
travel to work is 4%
2%
WT5 Promotion of eco-driving. cycling or 0%
walking
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
WT6 Promotion and support for walking and cycling.

11. Emission Reduction Performance
Indicators
• Total of 52 indicators across all sectors
• Data gaps have been identified where policies identified in the
Delivery plan have no corresponding indicator
Sector Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Gaps
Agriculture and LULUCF 2 7 3 2
Business 1 1 1 9
Public 1 1 5 5
Residential 1 1 6 -
Transport 1 3 11 -
Waste 1 5 1 1
7 18 27 17

12. WG and UK policies/measure
Example: Transport policy measures and estimated savings
Table 1: Climate Change Strategy Policies
No. Policy Estimated Savings - MtCO2e in 2020
WT1 Sustainable Travel Centres. 0.22
WT2 Smarter Choices.
No additional savings for these
WT3 Travel planning and provision of personalised travel information. policies to avoid double
counting
WT4 Developing a series of strategic modal interchanges.
WT5 Promotion of eco-driving. 0.03
WT6 Promotion and support for walking and cycling. 0.0005
WT7 Investment in rail services. 0.004
WT8 Investment in buses. 0.001
WT9 Improving traffic management on the strategic road network. 0.02
WT10 Supporting the freight industry to reduce emissions. 0.01
WT11 Alternative fuels infrastructure. No direct reduction expected yet
The Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport Low Carbon Transport: A
UKT1 0.96
Greener Future.
UKT2 Fuel Duty increases 0.11

13. Indicator
Table 2: Transport sector indicators (TI)
Indicator Tier
Policy: Indicator: Status:
number: :
Status WT1-11
WT1-3,
WT8
Transport sector GHG emissions
Total distance travelled - Vehicle kms
TI1
TI2
1
2


WT7 Fuel Consumption - Rail TI3 2 
WT10 Fuel Consumption - Rail Freight TI4 2 
Percentage of people travelling to work

Clear improvement WT1-3,
whose main mode of travel to work is TI5 3 
WT6
cycling or walking
WT1-3,
Rail passenger journeys TI6 3 
WT7
WT1-3,
Train user satisfaction TI7 3 

Stable or no clear trend WT7
WT1-3,
Number of bus passenger journeys TI8 3 
WT8
WT1-3,
Bus Travel Satisfaction TI9 3 
WT8

Clear deterioration WT8 Average loading of buses in Wales TI10 3 
Traffic volumes of HGVs versus freight
WT10 TI11 3 
lifted in Wales
Proportion of passenger rail network in
WT7 TI12 3 
Wales electrified

Baseline or insufficient UK1 Average new car CO2 emissions UKT1a 3 
data Ultra-low emission vehicles (ULEV)
UK1 registered for the first time, United UKT1b 3 
Kingdom
UK2 Total UK Road Transport Fuel Sales UKT2 3 

14. Presenting source data
• Example: transport indicator TI8 Number of passenger bus journeys
Indicator: Number of bus passenger journeys
Tier: 3
Status: Stable or no clear trend
Relevant policies WT1-3, WT8
Bus passenger journeys Baseline (2006-2009 average)
140 Millions Year
Passenger journeys (millions)
120
100
06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10
80
60
Bus passenger
journeys 118 120 125 117
40
20 Baseline (2006-
0
2009
2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 average) 120 120 120 120
Data Welsh Transport Statistics 2010
source
http://new.wales.gov.uk/topics/statistics/publications/tra

15. Indicator status

Clear improvement

Stable or no clear trend
• How do we measure progress? 
Clear deterioration
• Number of possible methods 
Baseline or insufficient data
– Annual change
Pros Cons
•Easy to use and understand •Does not account for long term trend
•Indicates annual progress
– Trend gradient over time
Pros Cons
•Takes account of long term trends •No established method
•Complicated to define
•Does not take account of short term
progress
• Other key question: Does progress need to be below baseline?
How is ‘clear’ change quantified robustly?

16. Contextual factors
• There are a variety of external factors which also drive variations in
emissions
• Can affect or override the impacts of policies
• Due to this influence we need to incorporate contextual factors into
the indicator framework
• Where relevant we will list the contextual factors specific to each
sector

17. Challenges, gaps and further
development
• Not the end of the process
• Challenges and gaps
– Defining improvement
• What is clear improvement?
– Data gaps
• Lack of available data
• Baseline issues
• Further development
– This year revisiting indicators with policy leads - specifically focusing on
data gap.
– E.g. Working with Glastir monitoring and evaluation contractors to
produce tangible tier 3 data for Agri/LULUCF. High level

18. Publication and dissemination
• Indicators were outlined in the First Annual Progress Report in
March 2012
• Reporting against progress in Second Annual Progress Report in
autumn 2013
• Due to high number of indicators and desire to present all
underlying data, methods and sources we are currently developing
a web platform to host on Welsh Government website .
• This will allow users to drill down into data behind indicator traffic
light system and graphs.

19. Thanks you for you attention
The team welcome the Commission’s input in the continued
development of the Emission Reduction Performance Indicators.