In order to achieve current climate change goals, Australia needs to use a long-term carbon budget approach to properly assess the risks, responsibilities and realities of doing its fair share. This presentation summarises The Climate Institute’s policy brief, Operating in Limits: Defining an Australian Carbon Budget. For more information visit www.climateinstitute.org.au/articles/publications/operating-in-limits.html

1. The
Climate
Institute
Defining an Australian Carbon Budget
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2. Defining an Australian Carbon Budget
April 2013
“Defining Australia‟s fair share of the global carbon budget is a complex task, but
it is critical if short-term targets are to be set with clear reference to avoiding
dangerous climate change. Australia‟s current high levels of per capita carbon
pollution, which have grown at around twice the global average over recent
decades, make this particularly challenging.”
Erwin Jackson
Deputy CEO, The Climate Institute
This presentation summarises The Climate Institute’s policy brief, Operating in Limits: Defining an Australian Carbon
Budget. In order to achieve current climate change goals, Australia needs to use a long-term carbon budget approach to
properly assess the risks, responsibilities and realities of doing its fair share.
Images: Michael Hall, Creative Fellow
of The Climate Institute
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3. Introduction
• The Clean Energy Future Act opens Carbon budgets and emission pathways. If total global
emissions peak later, reductions around 2050 need to be
up the possibility of a scientifically more ambitious. Also, once serious action begins the rate
robust ‘carbon budget’ for the nation of change needs to be much steeper if the same
• Carbon budgets are important in cumulative emission budget is to be achieved between
2000 and 2050.
climate policy:
• The magnitude of climate
change is not determined by
emissions in any given
year, but the total level of
pollution released over time
• The Act sets national interest as
avoiding 2 C.
Source: M. Schaeffer and W. Hare, How feasible is changing track? Scenario
analysis on the implications of changing emission tracks after 2020, from an
insufficient global deal on 2020 reductions, to 2 C and 1.5 C pathways, Report
commissioned by The Climate Institute (Potsdam, Germany and New York, USA: PIK-
PRIMAP team and Climate Analytics, 2009).
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4. National Interest
Natural systems Water Coastal Agriculture Health Infrastructure
2 degree Significant loss of Significant Loss some Reduced Increase Coping
world species, adaptive water coast production extreme capacity
capacity shortages developments events adequate (with
exceeded (in absence of investment)
sea walls)
4 degree Massive loss of Dangerous Massive Ability to meet Major risks Serious
world species water consequence food demand to human exposure to
(current shortages, for coastlines, stretched, life, impacts,
pathway) adaptive deglaciation of adaptive adaptive adaptive
capacity Greenland capacity in capacity in capacity in
exceeded serious serious serious doubt
doubt doubt
Source: Pearman (2009),
report for the Treasury
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5. Carbon Budgets and the Authority
Types of carbon budgets. • The Climate Change Authority’s
A number of different types of carbon budgets could be applied in
2013/14 review must:
Australia.
• recommend a ‘national
600
carbon budget’
• consider the global carbon
Million tonnes of CO2e
500
budget
400 • A carbon budget is not sharply
300 defined in the Act
200 • „the total amount of net
100 Australian emissions of
greenhouse gases during a
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
specified period‟
Long-term science Targets and trajectory
Short-term 25% pathway
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6. What type of carbon budget?
Approach Strength Weakness
Long-term + Scientifically robust + Politically more difficult (requires explicit
budget + Transparent and strong link between analysis of equity)
defined Australian and global carbon + Coordination between domestic and
budgets and goals international actions more difficult
+ Clearer longer-term investment signal + Uncertainty around technological and market
+ Clear signal of preparedness to contribute development over long-term
to global goals
Targets + + Clearer longer-term investment signal + Only a weak link to global budget/science
Trajectory + Politically more palatable as equitable + Budgets may be set without explicit reference to
contribution to global effort is not climate goals
transparently defined or needed
+ Nearer term budgets creates
accountabilities
Short-term + Provides flexibility in meeting short-term + Little or no direct link to longer-term goals
targets + May encourage conservative approaches to
+ Short-term accountability commitments
+ Provides no increase in investment certainty
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7. Our Proposal
Proposed national carbon budget
framework.
1. Guided by the national interest
established in the Act, a global carbon
budget is defined.
2. A fair 2010-2050 carbon budget for
Australia is then developed based on
an equitable contribution to the global
budget.
3. This national budget guides decisions
on Australia’s final 2020 target, short-
term carbon budget and emission cap
on covered sectors. It also influences
2030 and 2050 emission pathways.
Short-term accountability is set by the
2020 target, short-term budget and the
legal requirements on liable industries
under the cap on covered sector
emissions.
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8. Calculating Budgets
Bottom up
• 5-25% on 2000 by 2020 to 80% on 2000 by 2050
Top down
• CO2e budget = 75% chance of avoiding 2 degree C
• Cumulative convergence: Global budget x (Australian population/global population in
2010)
• Status Quo: Global budget x (Australian emissions/global emissions in 2010)
• Ability to pay: Global budget x (Australian income/global income in 2010)
• Average: No single measure is adequate so the average is also shown
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9. National Carbon Budgets
Summary of indicative 2010–2050 Australian carbon budgets.
16
14
12
Gt CO2e: 2010-2050
10
8
15 15
13
6
10 9
4
2 4
0
Government -5 Government -25 Cumul. Per Cap Status quo Ability to pay Average
Conv.
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10. Are national budgets equitable?
Per capita carbon budgets (2010–2050). World, Developed World average and Developing World average comparisons
are reference points. They are based on the convergence of these groups‟ emissions towards the point where the global
budget consistent with a high chance of avoiding 2 C is achieved. Average emissions per capita globally are around 0.5
tonnes per year in 2050.
Tonnes CO2e per capita: 2010-2050
20
18
16
14
12
10
8 15
14 14
6 12
10 9 11
4 8
2 4 3 3 4
0
Government -5
Government -25
Ability to pay
Average
World average
World average
Cumul. Per Cap Conv.
Status quo
Australia average
OECD average
Developed world average
Developing world average
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11. Changing Track
700
Carbon budget accountability and
emission pathways.
600
Two ‘change track’ scenarios are included.
500
One assumes that Australia sets a long-term
400 carbon budget consistent with the Government -
25 by 2020 per cent and 80 per cent by 2050
300 budget.
200 The other assumes a national carbon budget of
8 Gt with Australia’s per capita contribution to
100 avoiding a 2oC world not exceeding that of other
industrialised countries.
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 However, in both cases the emissions pathway
to 2020 is set on the basis of the 5 per cent
Change track (Delayed 25/80) reduction target.
Change track (Delayed 8Gt)
A more credible emission pathway is also
Credible pathway
illustrated which includes a roughly 25 per cent
reduction by 2020.
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12. Recommendations
An Australian carbon budget should be:
• Consistent with the national interest (as defined by the Act): based on a
global budget which has a high probability of avoiding 2 degree C.
• Focus on the long-term: Outline an Australia’s carbon budget to 2050 to
provide guidance to emission pathway
• Hedge against stronger action: Be set to ensure it hedges against the
possibility of even more ambitious action in the future.
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13. More information
Visit www.climateinstitute.org.au
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