Professor Alan Dupont summarises the defence and security implications of climate change in a presentation for The Climate Institute's Boardroom Lunch Conversation on 21 October 2013.
2. Chronology
UN debates political & security implications of
Climate Change in 2007 for the first time
CIA and ONA do classified assessments
Pentagon and Australian Defence& NS studies
At centre of Europe’s foreign policy
3. 2009 Defence White Paper
Neighbourhood will be particularly affected.
Exacerbate existing precursors for conflict.
Could give rise to very old forms of confrontation and
war, such as clashes between states over resources.
More frequent and severe natural disasters and
weather – humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
4. 2009 Defence White Paper
“Uncertainty about the effects of climate
change and the period of time over which
potential impacts may develop makes it
difficult to assess its strategic consequences.”
Strategic consequences will not be felt before
2030.
5. 2013 Defence White Paper
Issue framed as a driver of resource insecurity.
“Global energy, food and water resources are
under pressure from population growth, rising
affluence and climate change”
6. Why is Climate Change a Security
Issue?
Necessitates judgements about political & strategic
risk – a threat multiplier
Poses fundamental questions of human security,
survival and stability of nation states
Central problem is the rate at which temperatures
are rising – little time to adapt and mitigate
7. How Will Climate Change Affect
Security?
Negative consequences for food, energy and water
and hence economic and political stability
Increased frequency and devastation of natural
disasters, generating more humanitarian disasters
requiring international relief
Environmental refugees and population
displacements
8. How Will Climate Change Affect
Security?
Spread of infectious diseases
Will reduce the carrying capacity of developing
countries in Australia’s neighbourhood
Impact will be magnified where other problems
exist eg. terrorism, ethnic tensions, pandemics,
civil war.
9. Climate Wild Cards
Low probability but high impact events
Wild Cards – rapid or abrupt climate change
Tipping Points
Reduction in aerosol masking; accelerated
deforestation; rapid melting of the tundra ice or
polar ice
10. Policy Recommendation
“Strategic planners ought to include worse case
climate change scenarios in their contingency
planning as they do for terrorism, infectious
diseases and conventional military challenges to
national security.” Alan Dupont (2006)
11. Climate Change and Defence
Climate Change will affect where, when, why and
how the ADF operates
It will shape Defence’s operating environment
Asia Pacific particularly affected
Defence still has no climate change strategy
12. Operational & Personnel
Implications
Greater numbers of stabilisation operations
Regional cooperation on Climate Change
More humanitarian and disaster relief ops
including domestic
Greater demand for engineers, doctors, transport,
intelligence
13. Operational & Personnel
Implications
New design standards such as shelters for fighter
aircraft, munitions storage, runways
Conforming to environmental regulations
Energy considerations. Defence accounts for 70%
of total govt energy use
More stresses and demands on force structure
14. Conclusions
Climate change increasingly factored into
defence and security assessments.
Australia lagging behind other DCs.
Residual CC scepticism has stalled momentum
towards more robust policy stances.
Compounded by conservatism of Defence.
Unclear how CC will be dealt with in a Coalition
government.