Declassified State Dept Cable on Belgium's Strained Path to a TNF Decision

Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014
Message Text
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 BRUSSE 21425 01 OF 03 052225Z
ACTION PM-06
INFO OCT-01 EUR-12 ADS-00 CIAE-00 INR-10 L-03 ACDA-12
NSAE-00 PA-01 SS-15 SP-02 TRSE-00 IO-14 EB-08
NRC-02 OES-09 DOE-17 CEQ-01 SAS-02 NSCE-00 SSO-00
ICAE-00 INRE-00 /115 W
------------------083477 052232Z /70
O 052151Z DEC 79
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7636
INFO SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ATHENS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BONN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LISBON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG PRIORITY
USDEL MBFR VIENNA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY
USNMR SHAPE PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GER PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 21425
E.O. 12065: RDS 12/05/99 (CHAMBERS, ANNE COX) OR-M
TAGS: PARM, MNUC, NATO, BE, PINT, PGOV
SUBJECT: STILL BLEAKER PROGNOSIS ON OUTLOOK FOR TNF IN
BELGIUM
REF: BRUSSELS 21327 (DTG 051156Z DEC 79)
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1. (CONF - ENTIRE TEXT).
2. SUMMARY. IN LONG AND LIVELY EXCHANGE, AIDE TO BSP
VICE PRIME MINISTER FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS WILLY CLAES
CAME TO EMBASSY AND ON CLAES' INSTRUCTIONS GAVE US
EXTENSIVE BRIEFING (WITH SOME POINTS OF HIS OWN) ON SAD

PROSPECTS FOR TNF: HEAVY OPPOSITION IN BOTH SOCIALIST
PARTIES; HIGH ANIMOSITY TOWARD SIMONET AND HIS HANDLING
OF TNF ISSUE; GOVERNMENT VIRTUALLY PARALYZED BY CONVERG-
ENCE OF DOMESTIC ISSUES ON WHICH CURRENT CVP STAND MAY
PRECIPITATE EARLY TOPPLING OF GOVERNMENT. WILLEMS ALSO
SAID THAT DUTCH PRIME MINISTER VAN AGT'S VISIT TO PRIME
LMINISTER MARTENS THIS WEEK MAY HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED
BELGIAN GOVERNMENT RESOLVE. MINISTER CLAES' CONCLUSIONS:
"THE ONLY WAY THAT THE GOVERNMENT CAN SURVIVE IS TO
DECIDE NOT TO DECIDE." OUR SOURCE SAW THE POSSIBILITY
OF BELGIANS, DUTCH, AND DANES REACHING BY DECEMBER 12
COMMON DECISION FOR SIX-MONTH NATO DELAY. EMBASSY
RECOMMENDATION: IN ADDITION TO OUR EARLIER RECOMMENDATION
RE SCHMIDT-CLAES (REFTEL), WE BELIEVE THAT TIME HAS COME
FOR HIGHEST POSSIBLE LEVEL U.S. COMMUNICATIONS STRESSING
TO BELGIANS THE SERIOUSNESS OF ANY BACKSLIDING AND THE
VITAL IMPORTANCE TO NATO ALLIANCE OF POSITIVE BELGIAN
DECISION. END SUMMARY.
3. AT END OF DAY DECEMBER 5, LODE WILLEMS, AIDE TO
VICE PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS WILLY
CLAES, VISITED THE EMBASSY IN RESPONSE TO OUR REQUEST
(REFTEL) AND, ON CLAES' INSTRUCTIONS, PROVIDED US WITH A
LENGTHY BRIEFING ON WHAT NOW APPEAR TO BE VERY MAJOR
OBSTACLES IN THE WAY OF A POSITIVE BELGIAN GOVERNMENT
DECISION ON TNF MODERNIZATION FOR THE DECEMBER NATO
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MINISTERIALS. WILLEMS (WHO WAS THE SOURCE OF THE EARLIER
REPORT IN REFTEL) ALSO ADDED SOME SIDELIGHTS AND
SPECULATION OF HIS OWN. (STRICTLY PROTECT BOTH WILLEMS
AND CLAES.)
4. A KEY POINT IN THE CLAES, VIA WILLEMS, RUNDOWN OF THE
SITUATION IS THAT THERE IS VERY HEAVY OPPOSITION TO A
DECEMBER TNF DECISION IN THE FLEMISH SOCIALIST PARTY
(BSP) AND, ACCORDING TO REMARKS MADE BY FRANCOPHONE
SOCIALIST PARTY PRESIDENT (PS) ANDRE COOLS TO CLAES
DECEMBER 4, THE SITUATION IS JUST AS BAD, IF NOT WORSE,
IN THE PS.
5. WILLEMS' FIRST MAJOR THEME WAS THE CURRENT VERY SHAKY
STATE OF THE BELGIAN GOVERNMENT, WHICH HE DESCRIBED AS
"PARALYZED BY A CONVERGENCE OF DOMESTIC ISSUES," NOTABLY
INCLUDING ECONOMIC AND LINGUISTIC COMMUNITY AFFAIRS
(BRUSSELS 21299). THE FLEMISH SOCIAL CHRISTIANS (CVP)
HAVE REFUSED TO GO ALONG WITH THE GOVERNMENT'S REGIONALI-
ZATION PROGRAM (ALTHOUGH THE BSP HAS REMAINED LOYAL).
THE CVP MAY WELL TOPPLE THE GOVERNMENT WITH ITS MEETING
ON DECEMBER 16 AT WHICH IT WILL MAKE FORMAL ITS HARD-LINE

POSITIONS ON STATE REFORM (E.G. RE BRUSSELS). IN RETALIA-
TION TO THE CVP'S PRONOUNCEMENTS ON COMMUNITY ISSUES, THE
FRANCOPHONE SOCIALISTS ARE REFUSING TO VOTE A SINGLE
ARTICLE IN THE GOVERNMENT'S PROGRAM OF URGENT ECONOMIC
MEASURES. IN CLAES' WORDS (ON HIS RECENT RETURN FROM
CHINA), "EVERYTHING IS PARALYZED." THE GOVERNMENT,
WILLEMS CONTINUED, "COULD TOPPLE TOMORROW. WE COULD BE
GOING TO ELECTIONS IN FOUR OR FIVE WEEKS, AND IT WOULD
BE A DISASTER FOR US IF A TNF DECISION WAS THE ONLY THING
THAT THE GOVERNMENT COULD POINT TO AS HAVING DONE."
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6. GIVEN THIS GRIM POLITICAL AND POSSIBLY PRE-ELECTORAL

SITUATION, WILLEMS WENT ON, TNF UNFORTUNATELY HAS NOW
BECOME AN ESSENTIALLY INTERNAL MATTER. IF THE CVP IS
TO PRECIPITATE A CRISIS, HE AGAIN STRESSED, THE BSP
MUST THINK OF POSSIBLE ELECTIONS. IN THIS CRITICAL
POLITICAL CONTEXT, MOREOVER, THE FEELING IS STRONG
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AMONG BELGIAN LEADERS THAT SAVING THE GOVERNMENT IS
THE HIGHEST PRIORITY.
7. WILLEMS SAID THAT BSP PARTY PRESIDENT KAREL VAN
MIERT HAS FLATLY SAID THAT, IF THE GOVERNMENT TRIES TO
PROCEED WITH A POSITIVE TNF DECISION, THE BSP MINISTERS
WILL LEAVE THE CABINET. IF ANY BSP MINISTERS OPPOSE HIM
ON THIS STEP, HE WILL CALL A PARTY CONGRESS AND (WILLEMS
PREDICTED) WOULD EASILY WIN APPROVAL FOR HIS POSITION.
VAN MIERT, WHO HAS BEEN OVERRULED BY HIS MINISTERS IN
THE PAST, IS NOW DETERMINED TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT HE IS
THE LEADER OF HIS PARTY. HE ALSO WANTS TO SETTLE ACCOUNTS
WITH SIMONET IN RETURN FOR THE LATTER'S HANDLING OF VAN
MIERT'S RECENT POLEMIC WITH THE ZAIRIAN AMBASSADOR. VAN
MIERT THUS SEES TNF AS AN EXCELLENT ISSUE ON WHICH TO
GET EVEN WITH SIMONET. AS VAN MIERT AND OTHERS IN THE
BSP SEE IT, MOREOVER, A NEGATIVE, OR AT LEAST DELAYING
STANCE ON TNF WILL BE A POLITICAL ASSET WITH THEIR
CONSTITUENCY, SINCE SOCIALISM IN BELGIUM HAS TRADITIONALLY
BEEN "ANTI-MILITARISTIC" IN GENERAL, AND OPPOSED IN
PARTICULAR TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND DEFENSE SPENDING.
SUCH A POSITION IS PARTICULARLY APPEALING, HE NOTED,
DURING AN ECONOMIC CRISIS.
8. IN RESPONSE TO OUR STRONG EXPOSITION OF THE STAKES
AT ISSUE (IN WHICH WE WERE PREACHING TO AN ALREADY
CONVINCED LISTENER), WILLEMS SAID THAT THE BELGIAN PUBLIC
AND MOST POLITICIANS ARE JUST NOT REALLY CONCERNED WITH
THE SOVIET THREAT, THE IMPACT ON THE ALLIANCE OF A
POSTPONEMENT IN THE DECEMBER DECISION, OR THE EFFECT A
BELGIAN FAILURE TO REACH A POSITIVE DECISION WOULD HAVE
FOR BELGIUM'S RELATIONS WITH ITS ALLIANCE PARTNERS AND
FOR ITS NATIONAL IMAGE. THE GOVERNMENT, SAID WILLEMS,
HAD DONE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE IN TERMS OF EDUCATING THE
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BODY POLITIC ON THE ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS INVOLVED.
HE POINTED OUT THAT SIMONET'S MFA-DEVELOPED POSITION
PAPER WAS NOT DISTRIBUTED TO THE CABINET UNTIL NOVEMBER
16 NOR TO THE PARTY PRESIDENTS UNTIL NOVEMBER 19.

SIMONET WAS OFF TRAVELLING INSTEAD OF LOBBYING KEY
POLITICIANS, AND WHEN THE MEDIA AND EARLY OPPONENTS SUCH
AS TOBBACK--AND THE BSP'S PARTY BUREAU--MADE SWEEPING
ASSERTIONS ON DECOUPLING AND THE LIKE, NO ONE BOTHERED
TO GET REFUTATIONS QUICKLY ON THE RECORD. WILLEMS ALSO
SAID THAT SIMONET HAS A PERSONAL PROBLEM WITH MEMBERS
OF THE PARLIAMENTARY FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEES WHO ARE
VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN RESENTING WHAT THEY SEE AS HIS
ARROGANT AND CONDESCENDING ATTITUDE WHENEVER HE APPEARS
BEFORE THEM. THEY COULD USE TNF AS A WAY OF TEACHING
HIM A LESSON.
9. WILLEMS ALSO SAID THAT SIMONET HAD AROUSED IRE BY
TRYING TO SLIP TNF THROUGH IN A NON-DEMOCRATIC MANNER.
THIS HAD NOT WORKED BECAUSE OF THE INTENSIFICATION OF
INTRA-GOVERNMENT DISAGREEMENT OVER THE DOMESTIC ISSUES
DESCRIBED ABOVE. IN ADDITION, THE LACK OF AN OPEN AND
ACTIVE EFFORT TO SELL TNF HAD LEFT A VACUUM FOR PEOPLE
LIKE TOBBACK, AND ALSO FOR THE SEEPAGE OF NEGATIVE VIEWS
FROM THE NETHERLANDS.
10. ACCORDING TO WILLEMS, A MUCH SHAKEN SIMONET IS NOW
TRYING HARD TO SALVAGE THE SITUATION. HE IS WORKING
VIGOROUSLY ON PREPARING FOR TOMORROW'S PARLIAMENTARY
INTERPELLATIONS, AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY SPEAK ELOQUENTLY
FOR TNF MODERNIZATION. SIMILARLY SIMONET IS PREPARING
HIS SPEECH FOR THE DECEMBER 8 FRANCOPHONE SOCIALIST (PS)
COUNCIL MEETING, WHICH WILL FORMALIZE A PARTY STAND ON
TNF, BUT HE IS UNLIKELY TO WIN OVER A MAJORITY OF HIS
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O 052151Z DEC 79

PARTY COLLEAGUES.
11. THE VISIT TO BRUSSELS THIS WEEK OF DUTCH PRIME
MINISTER VAN AGT HAS PROBABLY COMPLICATED MATTERS STILL
FURTHER. WILLEMS UNDERSTANDS THAT VAN AGT REPORTED TO
HIS BELGIAN INTERLOCUTORS THAT THE SITUATION IN THE DUTCH
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PARLIAMENT IS VERY GLOOMY. ALL IN ALL, WILLEMS SEES
CONSIDERABLE CHANCE THAT, BY THE TIME OF NEXT WEEK'S NATO
MEETINGS, BELGIUM, THE NETHERLANDS, AND DENMARK MAY
BE WORKING TOGETHER IN SUPPORT OF A SIX-MONTH DELAY IN
A NATO TNF DECISION.
12. APPARENTLY WITHOUT THE EXPLICIT APPROVAL OF CLAES,
WILLEMS SAID THAT, WHILE HERE, VAN AGT HAD "WAVED AROUND"
A COPY OF A TELEX THAT HE SAID HE HAD RECENTLY SENT TO
SOVIET CHAIRMAN BREZHNEV. NEITHER WILLEMS NOR CLAES
KNEW THE EXACT CONTENT OF THE MESSAGE, BUT HAD THE
IMPRESSION THAT IN SOME WAY IT CONFIDED TO BREZHNEV
VAN AGT'S DOMESTIC POLITICAL PROBLEMS OVER THE TNF
ISSUE, AND THEY THOUGHT THAT IT MAY HAVE GONE SO FAR AS
TO SUGGEST SOME "BREZHNEV INITIATIVE" THAT COULD HELP
SOLVE THOSE PROBLEMS. WHEN WE EXPRESSED ASTONISHMENT,
WILLEMS SAID THAT THIS HAD ALSO BEEN CLAES' REACTION.
THIS EPISODE, PLUS COOLS' REMARK TO THE GDR DELEGATION
(REPORTED REFTEL), HAS REINFORCED IN CLAES A SENSE OF
HOPELESSNESS IN FIGHTING WHAT HE SEES AS A LOSING
POLITICAL BATTLE IN DOMESTIC TERMS, WHILE OTHERS ARE
DEMONSTRATING SUCH IRRESPONSIBILITY IN DEALING ON THE
ISSUE WITH THE WEST'S ADVERSARIES. WILLEMS ADMITTED THAT
HE HAD ADVISED CLAES THAT, WITH THE ODDS IN THE FLEMISH
SOCIALIST PARTY SO HEAVILY STACKED AGAINST A FAVORABLE

TNF STAND, THE MINISTER WOULD HAVE TO GIVE SOME CONSIDERA-
TION TO HIS OWN POLITICAL FUTURE BEFORE DECIDING TO
TILT AT A WINDMILL.
13. WILLEMS HAD SOME BITTER WORDS FOR THE RETICENT
SOCIAL CHRISTIAN STANCE TO DATE ON THE TNF ISSUE, CITING
ESPECIALLY FLEMISH SOCIAL CHRISTIAN (CVP) PRESIDENT LEO
TINDEMANS. ASKING WHY "OUR CONSERVATIVE PARTIES ARE NOT
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SPEAKING OUT," WILLEMS SAID THAT TINDEMANS DOES NOT WANT
TO TAKE ANY RISKS WITH FLEMISH VOTERS AND IS SITTING BACK
TO SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN. AS FOR MARTENS, WILLEMS SAID,
THE PRIME MINISTER IS BEING VERY CAREFUL ABOUT SHOWING
OPEN SUPPORT FOR THE MODERNIZATION PLAN IN VIEW OF HIS
WEAK POSITION IN THE CVP VIS-A-VIS TINDEMANS. HE IS ALSO
MUCH LESS FAMILIAR WITH MILITARY ISSUES THAN WITH THE
OTHER PROBLEMS PLAGUING HIM. TURNING TO THE FRANCOPHONE
SOCIAL CHRISTIANS (PSC), WILLEMS THOUGHT THE MOVE OF
FORMER DEFENSE MINISTER VANDEN BOEYNANTS ("VDB") FROM THE
CABINET TO THE PRESIDENCY OF THE PARTY WAS A NET LOSS
IN TERMS OF GARNERING PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR TNF. HE ALSO
WONDERED WHETHER IT SHOWED A CANNY VDB SENSE OF TIMING
TO REMOVE HIMSELF FROM DIRECT RESPONSIBILITY FOR A
FOREDOOMED SALES EFFORT ON A MAJOR NATO ISSUE.
14. RECOMMENDATIONS: GIVEN THIS VERY BLEAK PROGNOSIS,
WE FEEL THAT THE TIME HAS CLEARLY COME FOR STRONG
RENEWED EXPRESSIONS FROM THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE USG
ON THE SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS THAT ANY BELGIAN FAILURE
TO SUPPORT A FAVORABLE NATO DECISION ON TNF NEXT WEEK
WOULD HAVE FOR THE NATO ALLIANCE. WITH SO MANY BELGIAN
LEADERS AND POLITICIANS NOW SO NARROWLY FOCUSSED ON
DOMESTIC POLITICAL PROBLEMS, SOMETHING HAS TO BE DONE
TO TRY TO DIRECT THEIR ATTENTION TO THE LARGER PICTURE.
SOME POSSIBLE AVENUES OF APPROACH WERE OUTLINED IN
STATE 312350. WE PARTICULARLY SUGGEST FOR CONSIDERATION
A HIGH-LEVEL COMMUNICATION TO PRIME MINISTER MARTENS
WITH INSTRUCTIONS THAT WE DELIVER COPIES TO VICE PRIME
MINISTERS GUY SPITAELS, WILLY CLAES, AND JOSE DESMARETS.
ON ARRIVAL OF THE MESSAGES THIS DISTRIBUTION COULD BE
COORDINATED WITH MARTENS AND SIMONET. CHAMBERS
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Message Attributes
Automatic Decaptioning: X
Capture Date: 01 jan 1994
Channel Indicators: n/a
Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Concepts: ALLIANCE, DECISION, PRIME MINISTER, NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES, MILITARY CAPABILITIES, NUCLEAR WEAPONS, FOREIGN
POLICY POSITION, ECONOMIC PROGRAMS
Control Number: n/a
Copy: SINGLE
Draft Date: 05 dec 1979
Decaption Date: 01 jan 1960
Decaption Note:
Disposition Action: RELEASED
Disposition Approved on Date:
Disposition Case Number: n/a
Disposition Comment: 25 YEAR REVIEW
Disposition Date: 20 Mar 2014
Disposition Event:
Disposition History: n/a
Disposition Reason:
Disposition Remarks:
Document Number: 1979BRUSSE21425
Document Source: CORE
Document Unique ID: 00
Drafter: n/a
Enclosure: n/a
Executive Order: R9 19851205 CHAMBERS, ANNE COX
Errors: N/A
Expiration:
Film Number: D790561-0967
Format: TEL
From: BRUSSELS OR-M
Handling Restrictions: n/a
Image Path:
ISecure: 1
Legacy Key: link1979/newtext/t19791296/aaaaczyr.tel
Line Count: 377
Litigation Code IDs:
Litigation Codes:
Litigation History:
Locator: TEXT ON-LINE, ON MICROFILM
Message ID: 524aa413-c288-dd11-92da-001cc4696bcc
Office: ACTION PM
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Original Handling Restrictions: n/a
Original Previous Classification: n/a
Original Previous Handling Restrictions: n/a
Page Count: 7
Previous Channel Indicators: n/a
Previous Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Previous Handling Restrictions: n/a
Reference: 79 BRUSSELS 21327
Retention: 0
Review Action: RELEASED, APPROVED
Review Content Flags:
Review Date: 27 jun 2005
Review Event:
Review Exemptions: n/a
Review Media Identifier:
Review Release Date: n/a
Review Release Event: n/a
Review Transfer Date:
Review Withdrawn Fields: n/a
SAS ID: 487146
Secure: OPEN
Status: NATIVE
Subject: STILL BLEAKER PROGNOSIS ON OUTLOOK FOR TNF IN BELGIUM
TAGS: PARM, MNUC, PINT, PGOV, PORG, BE, UR, US, NATO, TNF
To: STATE DOD
Type: TE
vdkvgwkey: odbc://SAS/SAS.dbo.SAS_Docs/524aa413-c288-dd11-92da-001cc4696bcc
Review Markings:
Sheryl P. Walter
Declassified/Released
US Department of State
EO Systematic Review
20 Mar 2014
Markings: Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014

Declassified State Dept Cable on Belgium's Strained Path to a TNF Decision

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Declassified State Dept Cable on Belgium's Strained Path to a TNF Decision