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The Military Decision Making Process March 2008 FM 5-0, June 2005 FM 34-130, 1994
Military Decision-Making Process FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-1 thru 3-3 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Receipt of Mission (Initial Assessment) Mission Analysis COA Development COA Comparison COA Analysis (War-game) Orders Production COA Approval
Roles of Commander & Staff ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-4 thru 3-10
Commander’s Actions in MDMP Staff Estimates (continual) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Commander’s Estimate (continual) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],COA DEVELOPMENT COA ANALYSIS (War-game) COA COMPARISON ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],REHEARSAL EXECUTION & ASSESSMENT WARNO 1 WARNO 2 WARNO 3
Receipt of Mission ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-12 thru 3-15 MDMP Step 1
Prepare for Mission Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-13
Conduct an Initial Assessment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-13
Issue Commander’s Initial Guidance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-15
Issue a Warning Order ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mission Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-15 MDMP Step 2
Mission Analysis Steps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-16 thru 3-29
Analyze the Higher HQ’s Order ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Mission Analysis Step 1 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-16
Conduct Initial IPB ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Mission Analysis Step 2 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-17 thru 3-18
A Four Step Process: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-17 thru 3-18
Define the Battlefield Environment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FM 34-130, 1994, p. 1-1 & 2-1 IPB Step 1
The Operational Environment Operational Environment Information Nature and Stability of the State Regional and Global Relationship Economics Technology Time Demographics Physical Environment Military Capabilities External Organizations National  Will Operational Environment Information Information Nature and Stability of the State Nature and Stability of the State Regional and Global Relationship Regional and Global Relationship Economics Economics Technology Technology Time Time Demographics Demographics Physical Environment Physical Environment Military Capabilities Military Capabilities External Organizations External Organizations National  Will National  Will
Step 1 - Define the Operational Environment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Define the  Battlefield  Environment
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Identify the Physical Environment
Area of Operations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Area of Interest ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Area of Interest AI Area of Operations X Not within AI 30 km 30 km 30 km 30 km 30 km 30 km Within AI
Area of Interest ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
AI with terrain considerations Area of Operations AI HWY 1 2 3 TRAIL
Describe the Battlefield’s Effects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FM 34-130, 1994, p. 1-2 & 2-1 IPB Step 2
Define the  Battlefield  Environment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Step 2  - Describe the Environmental Effects Describe the  Battlefield's   Effects
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Terrain Analysis
Terrain Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Commanders use terrain to:
Terrain Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Affect on military operations  ( Friendly  and  Threat )
Terrain Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cross Country Mobility ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Affected By:
Describe the Battlefield Effects (Military Aspects of Terrain)   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mobility Classifications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
LOA  (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X
Military Aspects of Terrain ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
LOA  (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X
70 K ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Key Terrain ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Avenues of Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Provide: * Identified for both AIR and GROUND OBJ AA 1 AAA 1
Mobility Corridors Evaluate & Prioritize X OBJ A B C D F X X OBJ AA 1 AA 2 K K
LOA  (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X II II II II I I II II II II II II II II II X X II II II AA3C AA4A AA4B AA3B K1 K3 K7a K7b K4 K5 K6 K8 K9 K2
LOA  (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X AA3C AA4A AA4B AA3B II II II II I I II II II II II II II II II X X II II II K1 K3 K7a K7b K4 K5 K6 K8 K9 K2
Describe the Battlefield Effects (Military Aspects of Terrain)   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
LINE OF SIGHT OP CASEY OP TONY HILL 466 OP BONE
Describe the Battlefield Effects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Visibility ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Reduced Visibility:
Light Data A major factor in evaluating visibility is the amount of available light Date   BMNT   SR   SS   EENT   MR   MS   % Illum 10  0600  0641  1722   1803  2309   111058  3 11  0559   0640  1723  1804  120004 121153  60
Wind ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Strong  Winds:
Precipitation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Heavy rain or snow can impact:
Cloud Cover ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Temperature and Humidity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Extremes of either may:
Thermal Crossover ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Temperature Inversion ,[object Object],[object Object]
Battlefield Effects Terrain analysis    MCOO Weather analysis Weather Chart Other characteristics EFFECTS The “SO WHAT”
Visibility/Prec 0600 1200 1800 2400 CEILING: NONE VISIBILITY:  .8 KM PRECIPITATION: LT FREEZING RAIN CEILING: NONE VISIBILITY:  3 KM PRECIPITATION: LT FREEZING RAIN CEILING: 1200 M  VISIBILITY:  18 KM  PRECIPITATION: LT RAIN CEILING: 1500 M VISIBILITY:  20 KM PRECIPITATION: NONE 10 08 46 F 59 F 59 F 46 F SS:1800 MS:0705 MR:0142 SR:0712 BMNT:0646 EENT: 1825 Precipitation Significant Impacts : Good Concealment at night due to low illumination, rain and fog limit visibility from until 1200  TEMP WIND TEMP WIND TEMP WIND 10 TEMP WIND 04 FOG LIFTING FOG CLOUDY CLOUDY 0000 Wind Direction RW AVN SMOKE Dismounts RISTA Wheeled Tracks ADA Chem Wind Direction Visibility/Ceiling Visibility Visibility Visibility Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Visibility Visibility Visibility Visibility Visibility Visibility Precipitation Precipitation Visibility/Ceiling Precipitation Precipitation Visibility/Ceiling Wind Direction Wind Direction Visibility/Prec Visibility/Prec Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Precipitation Precipitation 0600 1200 1800 2400 23% ENEMY US
Weather Effects Chart
WEATHER EFFECTS WEATHER EFFECTS ON FRIENDLY +Increased detection, recognition, and identification ranges for thermal imaging systems +Brigade has thermal overmatch against the OPFOR from ______to_______. +Low illum (<23%) after 2200 supports aerial insertions -Winds support enemy use of Chemical Munitions -Only 12 hours, 59 minutes of useable daylight -Limited Image Intensifying Night Vision System Usage -Limited Operations during the hours of darkness -Big Changes in Barometric pressure may affect gunnery accuracy -Short days, long nights, combined with low illum levels and late Moon Rise will result in decreased total engineer effort -Unfamiliarity with terrain combined with low ilum after 2230 (<23%) will slow BRT/Scout Infiltration -High Wind gusts during hours of darkness may affect UAV launch and SIGINT Antenna Height  -High winds may affect accuracy of M1/M2 ammo at max effective range -High winds may affect Artillery accuracy due to extended time of flight
WEATHER EFFECTS ON ENEMY +Wind direction supports use of Chemical Munitions +Low illum (<23%) will conceal enemy troop concentrations   +Low Illum after 2145 (MS) will support recon infiltration -Lack of TIS will affect enemy movement tempo during hours of  reduced illum -Low ceilings and reduced vis will affect use of rotary wing AC (SOKOL) until after 1000 local -High winds after 2200 may affect enemy ability to conduct air insertion of infantry (resort to multiple truck insertions) -Low illum after 2200 reduces target acquisition of shoulder fired SAM system WEATHER EFFECTS
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],ASCOPE IEDS SAF TTPS Battlefield  Environment/ Effects AIF Supporters Vulnerable Population Political Wing Religious Boundaries Tribal Boundaries Economics Protected  Sites Local Authorities Enemy Strategies AIF Organization Phases Information Operations
Areas/Structures Buildings Blue Prints DC Camps Street Patterns Urban Patterns Criminal Enclaves Underlying Terrain Construction Materials Key Commercial Zones Subterranean Passages Political Precincts and Districts  Orgs/People/Events NGOs Media Culture Loyalties Authority(s) Perceptions Relationships Labor Unions Demographics Groups & Sub-groups Religious Holidays Capabilities Fuel Fire/Rescue Electrical Power Transportation Communications Health Services “ To help analyze many civil considerations, commanders and staffs can provide structure to their assessments by categorizing according to six characteristics:  areas ,  structures ,  capabilities ,  organizations ,  people , and  events  (ASCOPE).” Terrain Society Infra- Structure FM 3-06, Ch 9 ASCOPE Interpreted
Evaluate the Threat ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FM 34-130, 1994, p. 1-2 & 2-1 IPB Step 3
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Define the  Battlefield  Environment Evaluate the Threat Step 3 - Evaluate the Threat Describe the  Battlefield's  Effects
Know Your Threat Leadership Ideology External Support Environment/ Geography Objectives Target Selection Organizational/ Operational Patterns Phasing/ Timing Attributes of The Threat

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Military Decision Process Analysis

  • 1. The Military Decision Making Process March 2008 FM 5-0, June 2005 FM 34-130, 1994
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. The Operational Environment Operational Environment Information Nature and Stability of the State Regional and Global Relationship Economics Technology Time Demographics Physical Environment Military Capabilities External Organizations National Will Operational Environment Information Information Nature and Stability of the State Nature and Stability of the State Regional and Global Relationship Regional and Global Relationship Economics Economics Technology Technology Time Time Demographics Demographics Physical Environment Physical Environment Military Capabilities Military Capabilities External Organizations External Organizations National Will National Will
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. Area of Interest AI Area of Operations X Not within AI 30 km 30 km 30 km 30 km 30 km 30 km Within AI
  • 22.
  • 23. AI with terrain considerations Area of Operations AI HWY 1 2 3 TRAIL
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. LOA (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X
  • 34.
  • 35. LOA (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38. Mobility Corridors Evaluate & Prioritize X OBJ A B C D F X X OBJ AA 1 AA 2 K K
  • 39. LOA (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X II II II II I I II II II II II II II II II X X II II II AA3C AA4A AA4B AA3B K1 K3 K7a K7b K4 K5 K6 K8 K9 K2
  • 40. LOA (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X AA3C AA4A AA4B AA3B II II II II I I II II II II II II II II II X X II II II K1 K3 K7a K7b K4 K5 K6 K8 K9 K2
  • 41.
  • 42. LINE OF SIGHT OP CASEY OP TONY HILL 466 OP BONE
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45. Light Data A major factor in evaluating visibility is the amount of available light Date BMNT SR SS EENT MR MS % Illum 10 0600 0641 1722 1803 2309 111058 3 11 0559 0640 1723 1804 120004 121153 60
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52. Battlefield Effects Terrain analysis MCOO Weather analysis Weather Chart Other characteristics EFFECTS The “SO WHAT”
  • 53. Visibility/Prec 0600 1200 1800 2400 CEILING: NONE VISIBILITY: .8 KM PRECIPITATION: LT FREEZING RAIN CEILING: NONE VISIBILITY: 3 KM PRECIPITATION: LT FREEZING RAIN CEILING: 1200 M VISIBILITY: 18 KM PRECIPITATION: LT RAIN CEILING: 1500 M VISIBILITY: 20 KM PRECIPITATION: NONE 10 08 46 F 59 F 59 F 46 F SS:1800 MS:0705 MR:0142 SR:0712 BMNT:0646 EENT: 1825 Precipitation Significant Impacts : Good Concealment at night due to low illumination, rain and fog limit visibility from until 1200 TEMP WIND TEMP WIND TEMP WIND 10 TEMP WIND 04 FOG LIFTING FOG CLOUDY CLOUDY 0000 Wind Direction RW AVN SMOKE Dismounts RISTA Wheeled Tracks ADA Chem Wind Direction Visibility/Ceiling Visibility Visibility Visibility Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Visibility Visibility Visibility Visibility Visibility Visibility Precipitation Precipitation Visibility/Ceiling Precipitation Precipitation Visibility/Ceiling Wind Direction Wind Direction Visibility/Prec Visibility/Prec Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Precipitation Precipitation 0600 1200 1800 2400 23% ENEMY US
  • 55. WEATHER EFFECTS WEATHER EFFECTS ON FRIENDLY +Increased detection, recognition, and identification ranges for thermal imaging systems +Brigade has thermal overmatch against the OPFOR from ______to_______. +Low illum (<23%) after 2200 supports aerial insertions -Winds support enemy use of Chemical Munitions -Only 12 hours, 59 minutes of useable daylight -Limited Image Intensifying Night Vision System Usage -Limited Operations during the hours of darkness -Big Changes in Barometric pressure may affect gunnery accuracy -Short days, long nights, combined with low illum levels and late Moon Rise will result in decreased total engineer effort -Unfamiliarity with terrain combined with low ilum after 2230 (<23%) will slow BRT/Scout Infiltration -High Wind gusts during hours of darkness may affect UAV launch and SIGINT Antenna Height -High winds may affect accuracy of M1/M2 ammo at max effective range -High winds may affect Artillery accuracy due to extended time of flight
  • 56. WEATHER EFFECTS ON ENEMY +Wind direction supports use of Chemical Munitions +Low illum (<23%) will conceal enemy troop concentrations +Low Illum after 2145 (MS) will support recon infiltration -Lack of TIS will affect enemy movement tempo during hours of reduced illum -Low ceilings and reduced vis will affect use of rotary wing AC (SOKOL) until after 1000 local -High winds after 2200 may affect enemy ability to conduct air insertion of infantry (resort to multiple truck insertions) -Low illum after 2200 reduces target acquisition of shoulder fired SAM system WEATHER EFFECTS
  • 57.
  • 58. Areas/Structures Buildings Blue Prints DC Camps Street Patterns Urban Patterns Criminal Enclaves Underlying Terrain Construction Materials Key Commercial Zones Subterranean Passages Political Precincts and Districts Orgs/People/Events NGOs Media Culture Loyalties Authority(s) Perceptions Relationships Labor Unions Demographics Groups & Sub-groups Religious Holidays Capabilities Fuel Fire/Rescue Electrical Power Transportation Communications Health Services “ To help analyze many civil considerations, commanders and staffs can provide structure to their assessments by categorizing according to six characteristics: areas , structures , capabilities , organizations , people , and events (ASCOPE).” Terrain Society Infra- Structure FM 3-06, Ch 9 ASCOPE Interpreted
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61. Know Your Threat Leadership Ideology External Support Environment/ Geography Objectives Target Selection Organizational/ Operational Patterns Phasing/ Timing Attributes of The Threat