8. Examining Change in my Grandfather’s Lifetime Transatlantic radio Electricity Radio networks Telephone system Automobiles Air travel Washing machines Television Global monetary system Interstate highway system High Rise buildings Electronic computers Space travel Satellite communications The Internet Global positioning system Cable television systems
10. Change in my Kids Lifetime By the year 2010 the codified information base of the world is expected to double every ______ (2 minutes) 11 Hours Pair Up: Decide what to put in the box!
12. A Digital Divide of a Different Kind Explosion of information Hyperinflation of time Accelerated pace of change Constancy in human cognitive ability Digital Divide 100y=20,000y
13. Future View: When Aidan is 27 and Liam is 24 By 2009 computers will disappear . Visual information will be written directly onto our retinas by devices in our eyeglasses or contact lenses. Going to a “website” will mean entering a virtual reality environment. By 2029 we will have billions of nanobots traveling through the capillaries of our brain communicating directly with our biological neurons. Nanobots will take up positions close to very interneuronal connection coming from all of our biological sensory receptors. When we want to experience NON-VIRTUAL reality, the nanobots will just stay still. If we want to experience virtual reality, they will suppress all input coming from the real senses and replace them with the appropriate signals Ray Kurzweil
14. Defining Virtual Worlds Sources: Business Week April 2006, The Economist. Living a Second Life, Sept. 28, 2006 Second Life is some unholy offspring of the movie The Matrix, the social networking site MySpace and the online marketplace eBay Business Week
15. Virtual World Economics Source: Joe Miller. Linden Lab Clearly of social activity migrates to synthetic worlds, economic activity will go there as well. The volume of annual trade in synthetic worlds already exceeds $2B Castranova
16. Describing MMORPGs Most MMORPGs offer players pre-fabricated or themed fantasy world The Economist
17.
18. Aidan and Liam: Tomorrow’s Virtual World Workers? I confidently predict my children (4 and 6) will end up working in one of these worlds. Hunter
19. A Paradigm Shattering Future View: Redux The way Kurzweil expressed it, at some point in time in the twenty-first century the standard personal computing device will have as much computing power as the human brain. Not long after that, it will have the computing power of all the human brains that have ever lived. One important use of all that power will be to upload brains and recreate consciousness inside silicon….. The place that I call “Game World” today, may develop into much more that a game in the near future. It may become just another place for the mind to be, a new and different earth. Castranova
20.
21. Value Progression A basic progression governs the evolution of management in all market economies: Fundamental properties of the universe are transformed into scientific understanding, then developed into new technologies which are applied to create products and services for business, which ultimately define our models of organization . Meyer and Davis Economic Value Add Time Science Technology Business Organization
23. Organization Metamorphosis Infrastructure Business Technology Primary Asset Main Output Organization ? ? Agrarian Age (??-1760) Local Market Family Farm The Plow Land Food Products Family Structure Industrial Age (1760-1960) Steel, Railroads The Factory The Machine Capital Equipment Mechanical Products Bureaucracy Information Age (1960-2020) Computers, Internet The Corporation The Transistor Intellectual Capital Knowledge Products
25. Welcome to the Molecular Economy Video Clip (Kurzweil and Venter) As the information economy matures, a new economic life cycle – the molecular economy – is reaching puberty. The two primary drivers are our understanding of the molecules that control chemical and biological functions and the super-minitaurization of manufacturing. Meyer and Davis
26. Compression and the Structural Divide America’s business problem is that it is entering the twenty-first century with companies designed during the nineteenth century to work well in the twentieth. Hammer
27. Four Phases across Four Economies Time Compression Between Ages Accelerated disruption of existing business/structure TBD TBD Bureaucracy Family Structure Organization TBD Corporation Factory Family Farm Business Genomics Nanotechnology Chips Software WWW Steam Electricity Seed/Feed Plow Technology Mollecular Science NanoScience Quantum Physics Newton’s Physics Laws of Nature Science Molecular Economy Information Economy Industrial Economy Agrarian Economy
28.
29. Webvolution 3Di Web 2.0 Web 1.0 Access Participate Value Proposition Poster Children Find Share Collaborate Co-Create
31. Web 2.0: Description and Application Web 2.0 is a set of economic, social and technology trends that collectively form the basis for the next generation of the internet – a more mature, distinctive medium characterized by user participation, openness, and network effects O’Reilly
32. Emergence of New Economic Platforms Reputation Platform (Sales) 3Di Web 2.0 Web 1.0 Access Participate Value Proposition Poster Children Platforms Find Access Platform (Transaction Fees) Search Platform (Advertising Fees) Commerce Platform (Sales) Participation Platform (Membership Fees) Referral Platform (Referral Fees) Alternate Currency Platform (Exchange Fees) Share Collaborate Co-Create Creation Platform (In-World Sales)
33. Web 2.0 Value Creation Platforms In 2005, eBay conducted 8 billion API-based web services transactions. O’Reilly
34. Ecosystem based Value Co-Creation McKenna This is more than open source, social networking, crowdsourcing, smart mobs, or the wisdom of crowds. We are talking about deep changes in the structure and modus operandi of the corporation and our economy based on new competitive principles such as openness, peering, sharing and acting globally Tapscott
40. The “Always On” Pervasive Web There are more transistors produced per year than grains of rice and each rice grain can buy hundreds of transistors. Goodall (2002)
43. Blurring the Lines Between Service and Product Anytime ATM Machines Real Time Intelligent Vending Machines Online PCS health Systems Interactive Sunbeam’s “Blanket with a Brain” Anyplace GM Onstar Service Learning Pandora Anticipating Amazon.Com Filtering Google Reader Customizing Levi’s Upgrading Software Intangibles Source: Blur The difference between products and services blurs to the point that the distinction is a trap. Winners in the Information Age will provide an offer that is both product and service simultaneously. Davis and Meyer Speed Connectivity O F F E R
44. A trip to the grocery store…. ……… .How different will our lives become in the “always-on” pervasive web era?
47. The Era of Entrepreneurial Capitalism 3Di Web 2.0 Web 1.0 Access Participate Value Proposition Poster Children Find Share Collaborate Co-Create Entrepreneurial Capitalism Enterprise Endeavor Employee Entrepreneur Control Resources Orchestrate Value Transfer Provide Products and Services Provide Value Transfer Platforms
54. Technology has become so essential to corporations that expenditures have grown from 5% of capital spending in 1970 to almost 50% today Technology Expenditures as a Percentage of Capital Spending Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2000 Technology has transformed our society and economy, having a profound impact on America’s corporations. Wyatt
55.
56. Economic: Services Rule A Services Driven Economy…… Since 1950, employment in the manufacturing sector has fallen from nearly 40% of total employment to less than 18% currently, while the service sector employment has risen from less than 14% to more than 35 percent, essentially flip-flopping from where it had been in 1950. Merrill Lynch, 1999 … largely driven by technology positions requiring more skilled workers The demand skilled jobs, which reflects the dominance of technology in the service economy, has increased from 40% in 1950 to 85% in 2000. Linkage, 2001
57. Economic: The Global labor force migration towards services Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size (about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations) A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services >50% (S) services , >33% (S) services 2004 2004 United States The largest labor force migration in human history is underway, driven by urbanization, global communications, low cost labor, business growth, and technology innovation. (A) Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature (G) Goods: Value from making products (S) Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of things (customizing, distributing, etc.) and interactions between things 44 64 33 3 1.4 Germany 30 26 11 63 2.2 Banglad. 30 20 10 70 2.2 Nigeria 40 70 25 5 2.4 Japan 38 65 23 12 2.5 Russia 20 53 24 23 3.0 Brazil 35 39 16 45 3.9 Indonesia 21 70 27 3 4.8 U.S. 28 23 17 60 17.0 India 191 35 15 50 21.0 China 25 yr % delta S % S % G % A % WW Labor Nation
61. Economic: Knowledge Work Usurps Physical Work Physical Work Intellectual Work Factor of Production Knowledge Producer Question Nothing Question Everything Repetitive Tasks Ongoing Challenges Do as you are told Determine what to do Segmented Work Holistic Work Direct Supervision Autonomy “ A Strong back” “A Strong Resume” Industrial Worker Knowledge Worker Source: Nuala Beck, 2000, IBM Analysis Industry Ratio Ag. Production (Crops) 1.77 Ag. Production (Livestock) 7.29 Steel Production 15.96 Auto Production 18.53 Aircraft Production 38.97 Computer Production 57.72 Physician Services 59.31 Legal Services 63.29 Computer Services 73.15 Professional Services 92.68
62. Economic: People are classified as a cost by accountants not an asset! Accountants value the desk more highly than the person sitting at it . Accounting takes a short-term view of the world. It does not recognize that people become more valuable over time. Jay Cross A Cost Accountant’s (exaggerated) view of the value of a Human Being It is no wonder that our current accounting systems are no longer suited to the business reality they attempt to codify. The value of talented, creative, innovative people shows up as salary cost in SG&A on the Balance Sheet Stephen Covey
63.
64. Economic: Low end jobs are becoming history in the US Source TomPeters.com Source TomPeters.com