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- 1. Ryan Boyles State Climatologist North Carolina State University ryan_boyles@ncsu.edu Extreme Weather Preparedness at the Regional Level Greensboro, NC June 11, 2013 Climate Change - What it means for North Carolina
- 2. About the State Climate Office • Public Service Center at NCSU • Statewide public resource for weather and climate information and services – Extension of research to community applications – Research on NC weather and climate – Outreach – Education Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 2
- 3. Definitions • Global warming describes an average temperature increase of the Earth over time • Climate change describes how weather patterns will be affected around the globe – Changes in climate averages or in extremes of temperature and precipitation – Location specific Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 3
- 4. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 4•4 Latitude Topography Proximity to Oceans
- 5. RESULT – We get it all • Insert collage of hazards photos Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 5
- 6. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 6 Variations in Climate • Short-term – Earth’s surface – Winter – Summer • Longer-term – Atmospheric composition – Earth’s surface
- 7. Long-term Changes • Atmospheric Composition • Cloud type and amounts • Surface land/ocean – land use – vegetation – ice cover Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 7
- 8. Climate Change: NC vs. Global Temperature Trends - NC vs Global -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Departurefrom1901-2000Avg(F) NC Temp Anomaly Global Temp Anomaly Linear (Global Temp Anomaly) Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 9
- 9. Climate Change: NC vs. Global Temperature Trends - NC vs Global -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Departurefrom1901-2000Avg(F) NC Temp Anomaly Global Temp Anomaly Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 10
- 10. Climate Change: NC vs. Global Temperature Trends - NC vs Global -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Departurefrom1901-2000Avg(F) NC Temp Anomaly Global Temp Anomaly Linear (NC Temp Anomaly) Linear (Global Temp Anomaly) Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 11
- 12. Tree Ring Proxy NC Apr-Jun Rainfall Anomaly (estimated from Tree Rings) -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 933 983 1033 1083 1133 1183 1233 1283 1333 1383 1433 1483 1533 1583 1633 1683 1733 1783 1833 1883 1933 1983 Year DifferencefromMean(in) Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 13
- 13. How do we predict? • Models – Weather – Seasonal climate – Long-term climate – Downscaling – Validation Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 14
- 14. Daily temperature bell curve Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 15 •Source: 2012 IPCC Special Report
- 15. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 16 •Source: 2012 IPCC Special Report
- 16. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 17 •Source: 2012 IPCC Special Report
- 17. What does it mean for NC? • NC is sensitive to weather – Lots of Hazards – Enormous exposure in agriculture, natural resources, tourism Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 18
- 18. • Changes in Precip • NCA precip fig Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 19
- 19. Future Winters in NC • Probably more warm days in winter • Probably fewer very colds days • Probably fewer days with snow at lower elevations Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 20
- 20. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 21
- 21. Future Springs Seasons • More warm days • Possibly more intense thunderstorms – We don’t think they will get weaker • Perhaps more tornadoes, hail – Much less certain Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 22
- 22. Future Summers in NC • Likely more hot days, warm nights • Perhaps fewer days with rain – More days with intense rain • Perhaps more drought? Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 23
- 23. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 24
- 24. Ag Impacts • Heat, moisture stress – Timing, frequency of rain is critical – Increase need for irrigation • When it rains, it pours – Ponding in fields – More soil preparation • Pest impacts – Lower fungal risks? Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 25
- 25. Future Autumns in NC • More intense hurricanes – Decrease in frequency Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 26
- 26. Future Coastline of NC • Sea level rise – Sea will continue to rise • likely to speed up – Depends on ice loss at poles, thermal expansion Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 27
- 27. So what? • North Carolina is vulnerable – Action to deal with today’s hazards will help with future risk • If we’ve seen it in the past, we’ll see it in the future – And maybe worse with global warming Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 28
- 28. What do we do about it? • NC is vulnerable to climate hazards • Climate science informs society – Society manages risk, not science – Actions come from societal discussion • We make these choices Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 29
- 30. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 31 Needs: Data • All science develops with good data collection – Need for better environmental, climate monitoring • Data quality is critical – MUST be useful for decision makers
- 31. Needs: Research • Models need to be calibrated to regional climate patterns – Requires focus on state-level dynamics • Statistical and dynamic downscaling have limitations – A new hybrid approach needed? Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 32
- 32. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 33 Need: Applications • Climate science, data must get used – Not just by scientists • Need extension of science, data – To state, local agencies – To businesses – To all sectors sensitive to weather • Decision support tools – Driven by data, designed for end users – Calibrated climate forecasts for guidance
- 33. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 34 Need: Education • Lots of climate awareness, very little climate education • End users don’t know what models, data are appropriate to use • Climate education program needed – Sector policy makers, K-12 – No state agency leading • Can University system do this?
- 34. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 35 Need: Collaboration • Scientists, users need to work more closely – Among various user sectors – Among various scientific arenas • Service connections – Climate scientists – Extension specialists – Field specialists