SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  48
FMD, Animal AgricultureFMD, Animal Agriculture
and Public Opinionand Public Opinion
NIAA 2013 Annual ConferenceNIAA 2013 Annual Conference
Merging Values and TechnologyMerging Values and Technology
Sebastian E Heath, VetMB, PhDSebastian E Heath, VetMB, PhD
Washington, DCWashington, DC
Immediate devastation
from stamping out is
usually attributed to cost
of operations and
personal loss
However, in the long run,
restructuring of industry
and changing priorities for
rural areas have a much
larger impact
The US has a Perfect TrackThe US has a Perfect Track
Record of Successful ResponseRecord of Successful Response
to Foreign Animal Diseaseto Foreign Animal Disease
OutbreaksOutbreaks
Success measured in terms of:Success measured in terms of:
EradicationEradication
Cost ComparisonCost Comparison
DurationDuration
Command and ControlCommand and Control
However, Technical Plans do not Address theHowever, Technical Plans do not Address the
Full Spectrum of Impacts of an OutbreakFull Spectrum of Impacts of an Outbreak
 Traditional accounting in outbreaks uses talliesTraditional accounting in outbreaks uses tallies
 Interpreted as sum of direct and indirect costsInterpreted as sum of direct and indirect costs
 Agriculture is driven by economic efficiencyAgriculture is driven by economic efficiency
 Economist approach (cost categories)Economist approach (cost categories)
 Transaction costsTransaction costs
 Indirect cost/Lost RevenueIndirect cost/Lost Revenue
 Marginal costsMarginal costs
 Opportunity costsOpportunity costs
 Emergencies are economic disruptions (shocks)Emergencies are economic disruptions (shocks)
 Successful plans minimize disruptionSuccessful plans minimize disruption
 Either driven by or shape public opinionEither driven by or shape public opinion
Tiers of Preparedness/PlanningTiers of Preparedness/Planning
 TacticalTactical
 Focus on managing personnel, equipment and resourcesFocus on managing personnel, equipment and resources
 Facilitates incident responseFacilitates incident response
 OperationalOperational
 Defines roles and responsibilities, tasks, integration andDefines roles and responsibilities, tasks, integration and
actions required of jurisdictions, departments, agencies andactions required of jurisdictions, departments, agencies and
private sectorprivate sector
 Facilitates unified responseFacilitates unified response
 StrategicStrategic
 Describes how jurisdiction wants to meet responsibilitiesDescribes how jurisdiction wants to meet responsibilities
over the long-termover the long-term
 Driven by policy and (public) prioritiesDriven by policy and (public) priorities
To Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease OutbreaksTo Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks
It Is Helpful to Study How Costs are DistributedIt Is Helpful to Study How Costs are Distributed
Costs arising in emergencies:Costs arising in emergencies:
 Transaction costsTransaction costs
 Direct costsDirect costs
 Lost revenueLost revenue
 Indirect costsIndirect costs
 Marginal costsMarginal costs
 Cost of proving disease statusCost of proving disease status
 Opportunity costsOpportunity costs
 What else could have been done with theWhat else could have been done with the
same resources?same resources?
 Economic multiplier effectEconomic multiplier effect
Operational
Tactical
Strategic
Costs Affected by
Preparedness/Planning Efforts
Transaction (Direct) CostsTransaction (Direct) Costs
 Commonly confused with tally of operationalCommonly confused with tally of operational
outlaysoutlays
 E.g., “The FMD outbreak in the UK cost theE.g., “The FMD outbreak in the UK cost the
livestock industrylivestock industry £2.4 billion”£2.4 billion”
 Better: the additional cost of doing businessBetter: the additional cost of doing business
 ““The cost to administer operational outlays was …”The cost to administer operational outlays was …”
 2005 FMD hoax in New Zealand: NZ$ 2M2005 FMD hoax in New Zealand: NZ$ 2M
 Federal compensation in US (non-indemnity)Federal compensation in US (non-indemnity)
 Interest on loansInterest on loans
Transaction Cost Example:Transaction Cost Example:
Moorlands Hotel, North York MoorsMoorlands Hotel, North York Moors
 In 2003 theIn 2003 the
Moorlands Hotel inMoorlands Hotel in
North York Moors,North York Moors,
closed because ofclosed because of
over £25,000 in Bankover £25,000 in Bank
Charges on LoansCharges on Loans
that could not bethat could not be
repaid after the FMDrepaid after the FMD
OutbreakOutbreak
Lost Revenue (Indirect Costs)Lost Revenue (Indirect Costs)
 Lost incomeLost income
 Livestock: Lost productionLivestock: Lost production
 Tourism income in the UKTourism income in the UK
 Affected by co-dependenciesAffected by co-dependencies
of systemof system
 Often cannot be foreseenOften cannot be foreseen
completelycompletely
 Should not be assumed toShould not be assumed to
apply to all situationsapply to all situations
Lost Revenue Example: Shambles, York, 2006Lost Revenue Example: Shambles, York, 2006
“A combination of 9/11, the SARS
and foot and mouth scares a few
years ago, together with the floods,
had a massive impact in reducing the
number of tourists, particularly big-
spending Americans.”
http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/display.var.1333798.0.0.php
Marginal CostsMarginal Costs
 The increase in cost needed to produce moreThe increase in cost needed to produce more
 For example:For example:
 In Veterinary Practice: Cost of staff overtime to seeIn Veterinary Practice: Cost of staff overtime to see
more clientsmore clients
 In Animal Disease Control Programs: Increased costIn Animal Disease Control Programs: Increased cost
of doing business, e.g., cost ofof doing business, e.g., cost of
 Active surveillance over existing (passive) surveillanceActive surveillance over existing (passive) surveillance
 US BSE surveillance programUS BSE surveillance program
 Operations (contracts)Operations (contracts)
 IndemnityIndemnity
Marginal Cost ExampleMarginal Cost Example
Federal Cost (non-indemnity) for Response to DiseaseFederal Cost (non-indemnity) for Response to Disease
Outbreaks (23-89% of disbursements)Outbreaks (23-89% of disbursements)
END
Compensation
25%
Transportation
1%
Contracts
58%
Supplies
16%
BSE
Compensation
37%
Transportation
6%
Contracts
31%
Supplies
26%
WAS
Compensation
89%
Transportation
3%
Contracts
5%
Supplies
3%
GON
Compensation
23%
Transportation
0%
Contracts
57%
Supplies
20%
Opportunity CostOpportunity Cost
 Cost of choosing one option over anotherCost of choosing one option over another
 Finite resources dictate that every option/choice occurs atFinite resources dictate that every option/choice occurs at
the expense of anotherthe expense of another
 Costs are determined by asking:Costs are determined by asking:
 What will not get done as a result of my choice?What will not get done as a result of my choice?
 Which option has greater cost (immediately vs. long term)?Which option has greater cost (immediately vs. long term)?
 Magnitude of opportunity cost driven inMagnitude of opportunity cost driven in
 Short term by size and distribution of affected stakeholderShort term by size and distribution of affected stakeholder
groupsgroups
 Long term by economic multiplier effect resulting fromLong term by economic multiplier effect resulting from
redistributionredistribution
Opportunity Costs Resulting fromOpportunity Costs Resulting from
Response to FMD in the UKResponse to FMD in the UK
 UK paid $263M less in subsidies in 2002 than inUK paid $263M less in subsidies in 2002 than in
20012001
 Approximately equal to cost of lost tradeApproximately equal to cost of lost trade
 By 2006 waste management at FMD burial sitesBy 2006 waste management at FMD burial sites
had become a lucrative businesshad become a lucrative business
Opportunity Cost Example:Opportunity Cost Example:
Carcass Disposal at Great Orton Airfield, CumbriaCarcass Disposal at Great Orton Airfield, Cumbria
• In 2001, 466,312
carcasses, comprising
448,508 sheep, 12,085
cattle and 5,719 pigs
were buried in 26
trenches.
• £12M to build facility
• In 2006, still disposing of
240m3 leachate/week
• £850,000/yr. to
maintain
Opportunity Cost Example:Opportunity Cost Example:
Ash Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial SiteAsh Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial Site
 In 2001, 174,660In 2001, 174,660
carcassescarcasses buried
 £7.5M to£7.5M to
constructconstruct
 In 2003, “Ash MoorIn 2003, “Ash Moor
site to be restored tosite to be restored to
farmland”farmland”
 In 2006 £240,000/yr.In 2006 £240,000/yr.
to maintain (security,to maintain (security,
drainage,drainage,
maintenance)maintenance)
Opportunity Cost: Economic Multiplier EffectOpportunity Cost: Economic Multiplier Effect
 For every dollar by invested (incl. governmentFor every dollar by invested (incl. government
spending) how much morespending) how much more
 Spending (demand) and employment (jobs) are generatedSpending (demand) and employment (jobs) are generated
 Agriculture vs. Industrial vs. Services vs. ConstructionAgriculture vs. Industrial vs. Services vs. Construction
SectorsSectors
 Choices often driven by public interestsChoices often driven by public interests
For exampleFor example
 Does paying for cleaning and disinfection after an FADDoes paying for cleaning and disinfection after an FAD
generate more economic growth and jobs if the work isgenerate more economic growth and jobs if the work is
done by federal employees or contractors?done by federal employees or contractors?
 Short term: Added income supports comparable increases inShort term: Added income supports comparable increases in
spendingspending
 Long term: Contracts supports more jobsLong term: Contracts supports more jobs
Long term outcome:Long term outcome:
Moorlands Hotel, North York MoorsMoorlands Hotel, North York Moors
 By 2012 the hotelBy 2012 the hotel
was under newwas under new
management andmanagement and
rated amongst therated amongst the
best hotels inbest hotels in
YorkshireYorkshire
http://www.britainsfinest.co.uk/bedandbreakfast/bedandbreakfast.cfm/searchazref/moorlands-country-
house
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6722995.stm
Economic Recovery from 2001 FMDEconomic Recovery from 2001 FMD
Shambles, YorkShambles, York
The Shambles, York, is
now a major tourist
destination with
international recognition
Economic Recovery: Ash Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial SiteEconomic Recovery: Ash Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial Site
• In 2010, “Landfill gives
Butterflies a Boost” … awarded
£257,469 to help boost the
fortunes of a number of fritillary
butterfly species on Dartmoor.
• In 2013 “Ash Moor is a real rags
to riches story, which now has a
far more positive future. Wildlife
Trust is managing the woodland
and hedgerows and putting in a
series of pond and scrapes. The
site is buzzing with wildlife … so
hopefully lots for people to see”
http://www.dartmoor-npa.gov.uk/__data/assets/image/0008/93950/20110516-
DNPA-NB-Pearl-bordered-Fritillary-web.jpg
To Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease OutbreaksTo Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks
It Is Helpful to Study How Costs are DistributedIt Is Helpful to Study How Costs are Distributed
Costs arising in emergencies:Costs arising in emergencies:
 Transaction costsTransaction costs
 Direct costsDirect costs
 Lost revenueLost revenue
 Indirect costsIndirect costs
 Marginal costsMarginal costs
 Cost of proving disease statusCost of proving disease status
 Opportunity costsOpportunity costs
 What else could have been done with theWhat else could have been done with the
same resources?same resources?
 Economic multiplier effectEconomic multiplier effect
Operational
Tactical
Strategic
Costs Affected by
Preparedness/Planning Efforts
Projected Impact of Stamping Out FMD on 60Projected Impact of Stamping Out FMD on 60
Farms in a Single U.S. Rural CountyFarms in a Single U.S. Rural County
 Operational costsOperational costs
 $1.4 million/week$1.4 million/week
 750 personnel750 personnel
 Local impactLocal impact
 Approx. $6.4 million per week to the Gross County ProductApprox. $6.4 million per week to the Gross County Product
 Lost jobs (1 year):Lost jobs (1 year):
 752 from food manufacturing752 from food manufacturing
 1,466 from retail1,466 from retail
 1,128 from hospitality1,128 from hospitality
 1,203 from health and social1,203 from health and social
 Stop movement estimated to cost over $700,000 in lostStop movement estimated to cost over $700,000 in lost
revenue to producers and owners of non-susceptible speciesrevenue to producers and owners of non-susceptible species
Special Interests often Drive Strategic Choices
affecting Opportunity Cost and the Impact of
Economic Multipliers
 Public Opinion Challenges to Agriculture that
will likely impact decisions during an FMD
outbreak
 Environment
 Animal Welfare
 Food Safety
 Economics
 Biotechnology
Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:
EnvironmentEnvironment
Image: Paul de Lhama on flickr
http://www.extension.org/sites/default/files/w/b/be/Feature_for_eXtension_beef.jpg
In the Netherlands during
the 2006 AI outbreak
public concern arose over
why so much pollution at
home to support exports
abroad
Little discussion on use of marginal
land and opportunity costs
Impact of Environmental Lobby on TaiwanImpact of Environmental Lobby on Taiwan
Swine Industry after FMD in 1998Swine Industry after FMD in 1998
Taiwan EPA issued a
moratorium on restocking
swine …
.. unless farmer could
dispose of manure in 3-
stage sewer handling
facility or relocate
Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:
Animal WelfareAnimal Welfare
http://www.cattleandhuntranch.com/Uploads/76/68/17668/images/cowcalf.jpg http://www.tinksbeef.com/files/feedlot2.jpg
http://advocacy.britannica.com/blog/advocacy/wp-content/uploads/chickens-4.jpghttp://manhattaninfidel.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/chickens.jpg
http://gpvec.unl.edu/files/westernu/swine/2009%20Presentations/Danish%20gestation%20crates.JPG
http://www.rightonsofshipston.co.uk/images/piglet_closeup_443.jpg
Public opinion on
animal welfare
supports animals
being able to
roam free.
But there is little
consideration of
animal husbandry
on welfare in
disasters
Animal Welfare is a Major Concern inAnimal Welfare is a Major Concern in
DisastersDisasters
 More animals suffer in disasters inMore animals suffer in disasters in
natural settings than when housednatural settings than when housed
 E.g., floods, blizzard, heatE.g., floods, blizzard, heat
 Yet intensive agriculture is oftenYet intensive agriculture is often
cited as causecited as cause
http://assets.knowledge.allianz.com/img/dead_cow_rtr185c4_ah_1_50468.jpg
http://olsonfarlow.com/wp-content/themes/olson-farlow/scripts/timthumb.php?src=http://olsonfarlow.com/wp-
content/uploads/Omo-River-Ethiopia-National-Geographic-126.jpg&w=780&q=80&a=t
Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:
Food SafetyFood Safety
http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/c213.0.403.403/p403x403/547019_10151248655940518_830595605_n.jpg
http://baby-boomer-depot.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Row-upon-row-of-Processed-Foods.jpg
Growing popular interest in locally
sourced organic food with novel
preparation and retail
Little discussion on cost and
affordability of food, quality
control and variety
http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/blogs/youngandhungry/2010/09/15/vote-your-favorite-food-truck-into-the-inaugural-curbside-cook-off/
Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks can TurnPublic Opinion in Disease Outbreaks can Turn
on Food Safetyon Food Safety
 Loss of consumer confidenceLoss of consumer confidence
 Loss of value added jobsLoss of value added jobs
 Driven byDriven by
 Risk communicationRisk communication
 Killing animals to save animals is an inherently conflictedKilling animals to save animals is an inherently conflicted
messagemessage
 Assumption is that killing animals will protect public healthAssumption is that killing animals will protect public health
 Will the public accept this?Will the public accept this?
 Response optionsResponse options
 If the methods used for stamping out adversely affectsIf the methods used for stamping out adversely affects
consumer confidenceconsumer confidence
 Why do we do it?Why do we do it?
Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:
EconomicsEconomics
 In it for the moneyIn it for the money
 Trade Protection is goodTrade Protection is good
VersusVersus
 Meat is in high demand worldwideMeat is in high demand worldwide
 Economic efficiency is key to sustainabilityEconomic efficiency is key to sustainability
 Innovation provides competitive advantageInnovation provides competitive advantage
 Disease free trade partners are better forDisease free trade partners are better for
exportersexporters
PER CAPITA MEAT CONSUMPTION vs. GNP
(1971-95 country averages)
0
1
2
3
4
5
4 5 6 7 8 9 11
Log per capita GNP
LogpercapitaMeat
Consumption
Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study.
10
China
India
Trend
Philippines
The highest growth and demand from agriculture is forThe highest growth and demand from agriculture is for
animal derived productsanimal derived products
Commodity Growth rate per annum (%)
Cereals 2.6
Fruit 3.5
Vegetables 4.8
Fish 5.5
Pork 6.3
Poultry 7.7
Projected Growth in Global Meat Demand,
1997-2020
Poultry
40%
Pork
31%
Beef
24%
Sheep/Goat
5%
FAO, IFPRI, 1999
Changes in Livestock ProductionChanges in Livestock Production
Asia
SSA
WANA
CSA
Grazing
Mixed
Industrial
-5
0
5
10
15
20
PercentAnnualGrowth
Region
System
Annual Growth Rates of Meat Production
Systems
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
AnnualGrowthRate(mean
%)
Grazing Livestock Mixed Farming Industrial Production
Farming System
Annual Growth Rate of Livestock Production
Systems (1985-90)
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
4,500.0
5,000.0
5,500.0
6,000.0
6,500.0
7,000.0
7,500.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Volume(MMTX1,000)
FMD Outbreak
Mean (1991-7): 6,526 MMT
Mean (1998-2004): 5,776 MMT
Decrease by 11.5%
Impact of FMD on Soy Imports (Pig Feed)
(mostly US soy exports) to Taiwan
Impact of Syria Becoming Free of FMD
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Year
USFeedGrainsExports(MT)or
SyrianCattlePopulation(X1,000)
Mean: 219,000 MT
Mean: 662,000 MT
Cattle population (head)
FMD-positive FMD-free
Grain Exports (MT)
Trends in Uruguay Beef Exports
¿
¿
¿
¿
u[
u]
u`
ub
ue
ug
¾ î M } -
Year
Tons(X1,000)
FMD positive FMD free
Exports to FMD free
countries
Exports to FMD
infected countries
Destination of Uruguay Beef Exports
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000
Year
PercentofTotal
Mercosur
USA
Israel
Other
NAFTA
Other than USA
USA
Other than USA
Global Livestock Populations, US Feed Exports
and Foot and Mouth Disease
(5-year mean, 1997-2001)
Cattle
Cattle
Pigs
Pigs
Feedgrains
Feedgrains
Soybeansandmeal
Soybeansandmeal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
FMD-free FMD-infected
Country FMD Status
GlobalLivestockPopulation
(%#)
orUSFeedgrainExports(%MT)
N=84 N=86
Narrow Views of the Economics of AnimalNarrow Views of the Economics of Animal
Agriculture Undermine Its Many BenefitsAgriculture Undermine Its Many Benefits
 Meat is a desirable food – worldwideMeat is a desirable food – worldwide
 Growing demand correlates with increased incomeGrowing demand correlates with increased income
 Meat adds value toMeat adds value to
 Pasture (developing countries)Pasture (developing countries)
 Feed grains (North America)Feed grains (North America)
 Value added agriculture productsValue added agriculture products
 Create jobs (processing, distribution, retail and export)Create jobs (processing, distribution, retail and export)
 Exports bring in foreign currencyExports bring in foreign currency
 A country’s animal disease status affects trade balanceA country’s animal disease status affects trade balance
 Every $1 million of value added through agriculture supportsEvery $1 million of value added through agriculture supports
approximately 5,000 jobsapproximately 5,000 jobs
Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:
BiotechnologyBiotechnology
http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/files/2012/12/Transgenic-vs-non-transgenic-siblings-large.jpg
Public Opinion condones
terms such as
“Frankenfoods” and
questions the value of
vaccinating children
But little discussion
over progress made
through science
Reports on Science, Disasters andReports on Science, Disasters and
Urban Myths are not well MatchedUrban Myths are not well Matched
 Media demand is for crises and sensationsMedia demand is for crises and sensations
 In response media supplies disproportionate number ofIn response media supplies disproportionate number of
reports on, e.g.,reports on, e.g.,
 Vaccine and autismVaccine and autism
 GMO’s and safety concernsGMO’s and safety concerns
 Threat of diseases from animalsThreat of diseases from animals
 Growing resentment of vaccines in Pakistan, NigeriaGrowing resentment of vaccines in Pakistan, Nigeria
and in many North American familiesand in many North American families
 As progress is made will the public laud science orAs progress is made will the public laud science or
remember incomplete and pseudo facts?remember incomplete and pseudo facts?
Systems Mapping Helps Identify Interests andSystems Mapping Helps Identify Interests and
Contributions Before a Crisis StrikesContributions Before a Crisis Strikes
 Public Opinion can become a dominant driver ofPublic Opinion can become a dominant driver of
strategic choices in a crisisstrategic choices in a crisis
 Interests of the public and agriculture are often veryInterests of the public and agriculture are often very
focusedfocused
 Focused interests have merit but onlyFocused interests have merit but only contributecontribute toto
quantity and quality of final productquantity and quality of final product
 Systems Mapping is an important tool forSystems Mapping is an important tool for
shaping the future or, if ignored, allowingshaping the future or, if ignored, allowing
special interests to determine the futurespecial interests to determine the future
Systems Map: What’s for Dinner?Systems Map: What’s for Dinner?
Each step is necessary but none are sufficient to
put dinner on the table.
A systems map is a strategic tool to identify
interests that drive choices for the future
Shocks to the System:
Crisis or Opportunity
 Peter Löscher CEO of Siemens on Using a ScandalPeter Löscher CEO of Siemens on Using a Scandal
to Drive Change:to Drive Change: … But as I always remind anybody
who is listening, never miss the opportunities that
come from a good crisis—and we certainly didn’t
miss ours. The scandal created a sense of urgency
without which change would have been much more
difficult to achieve, regardless of who was CEO.
Siemens is a very proud company with a history of
innovation and success. In the absence of a catalyst
like this, people would have asked themselves, “Why
alter anything?” (Hired as the first outsider toanything?” (Hired as the first outsider to
become the company’s top leader)become the company’s top leader)
 David King, Science Advisor to PM Tony Blair
during the 2011 FMD outbreak: At the Budget,
we committed to raising science spending
faster than the trend rate of growth of the
economy. We can now announce that in total,
the average annual growth rate for science
funding is 5.8 per cent in real terms.
Public Opinion of Animal Agriculture HasPublic Opinion of Animal Agriculture Has
Supported its Role in Scientific ProgressSupported its Role in Scientific Progress
 Disease eradicationDisease eradication
 RinderpestRinderpest
 VaccinesVaccines
 Encephalitis, clostridial diseasesEncephalitis, clostridial diseases
 Environmental healthEnvironmental health
 Field HospitalsField Hospitals
 Food SafetyFood Safety
 HACCPHACCP
 EpidemiologyEpidemiology
 Herd immunityHerd immunity
www.crops.org
http://digital.library.okstate.edu/encyclopedia/entries/c/ca077.html
The Future of Public Opinion of Animal AgricultureThe Future of Public Opinion of Animal Agriculture
Should be Shaped as Supporting Scientific ProgressShould be Shaped as Supporting Scientific Progress
 Surveillance, early detection, rapid response andSurveillance, early detection, rapid response and
recovery from high consequence diseaserecovery from high consequence disease
outbreaksoutbreaks
 Tipping point for choice of interventionTipping point for choice of intervention
 Disease counter measures using informationDisease counter measures using information
technologytechnology
 Manage risks from greenhouse gas emissions,Manage risks from greenhouse gas emissions,
water use, carbon sequestration, renewable andwater use, carbon sequestration, renewable and
bio fuelsbio fuels
 Transformative Sustainable Agricultural SystemsTransformative Sustainable Agricultural Systems
 Human nutritionHuman nutrition
Disease Outbreaks have led to a Restructuring of Rural EconomiesDisease Outbreaks have led to a Restructuring of Rural Economies
http://www.farminguk.com/bsp/10130/ews.asp?DBID=103-281-013-081&iPage=1&id=5631
Following the foot and mouth crisis of 2001
he converted some buildings on his 150-
acre farm into commercial units. As part of
the “Devon Renaissance” Rexon Cross
Farm became Wolf Valley Business District
providing an inspiring pastoral setting for
business
After AI outbreaks in Asia and Italy
and FMD in the UK there was
significant consolidation of the
livestock industry, with many small
farmers dropping out
FMD, Animal Agriculture andFMD, Animal Agriculture and
Public OpinionPublic Opinion
seheath@comcast.netseheath@comcast.net
THANK YOUTHANK YOU

Contenu connexe

Similaire à Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

INFORMS Presentation
INFORMS PresentationINFORMS Presentation
INFORMS PresentationMark Ehlen
 
A Comprehensive Approach to Sustainable Financing of National HIV Responses
 A Comprehensive Approach to Sustainable Financing of National HIV Responses A Comprehensive Approach to Sustainable Financing of National HIV Responses
A Comprehensive Approach to Sustainable Financing of National HIV ResponsesUNDP Eurasia
 
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of BusinessNatural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of BusinessSustainable Brands
 
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of BusinessNatural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of BusinessSustainable Brands
 
Risk management presentation May 6 2013
Risk management presentation May 6 2013Risk management presentation May 6 2013
Risk management presentation May 6 2013Compliance LLC
 
Haiti Priorise Outcome Presentation
Haiti Priorise Outcome PresentationHaiti Priorise Outcome Presentation
Haiti Priorise Outcome PresentationCopenhagen_Consensus
 
2018 DRR Financing 3.1 Karina Whalley
2018 DRR Financing 3.1 Karina Whalley2018 DRR Financing 3.1 Karina Whalley
2018 DRR Financing 3.1 Karina WhalleyUNDP Eurasia
 
Advance Market Commitments for Climate Change
Advance Market Commitments for Climate ChangeAdvance Market Commitments for Climate Change
Advance Market Commitments for Climate Changecgdev
 
The Construction Industry Has A Huge Impact On The...
The Construction Industry Has A Huge Impact On The...The Construction Industry Has A Huge Impact On The...
The Construction Industry Has A Huge Impact On The...Michelle Davis
 
When Business Continuity Becomes a Boardroom Issue Elvin(20071007)
When Business Continuity Becomes a Boardroom Issue Elvin(20071007)When Business Continuity Becomes a Boardroom Issue Elvin(20071007)
When Business Continuity Becomes a Boardroom Issue Elvin(20071007)elvinchan
 
Understanding Integrated Care in England
Understanding Integrated Care in EnglandUnderstanding Integrated Care in England
Understanding Integrated Care in EnglandMalachy Rice
 
Economic Consequence Analysis, Prof. Adam Rose, USC
Economic Consequence Analysis, Prof. Adam Rose, USCEconomic Consequence Analysis, Prof. Adam Rose, USC
Economic Consequence Analysis, Prof. Adam Rose, USCOECD Governance
 
Making sense of sustainable development
Making sense of sustainable developmentMaking sense of sustainable development
Making sense of sustainable developmentClive Bates
 

Similaire à Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion (20)

INFORMS Presentation
INFORMS PresentationINFORMS Presentation
INFORMS Presentation
 
Crafting & Designing Programs by Practitioner's for a Safer Future
Crafting & Designing Programs by Practitioner's for a Safer FutureCrafting & Designing Programs by Practitioner's for a Safer Future
Crafting & Designing Programs by Practitioner's for a Safer Future
 
A Comprehensive Approach to Sustainable Financing of National HIV Responses
 A Comprehensive Approach to Sustainable Financing of National HIV Responses A Comprehensive Approach to Sustainable Financing of National HIV Responses
A Comprehensive Approach to Sustainable Financing of National HIV Responses
 
Cost Concept
Cost ConceptCost Concept
Cost Concept
 
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of BusinessNatural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business
 
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of BusinessNatural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business
Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business
 
Risk management presentation May 6 2013
Risk management presentation May 6 2013Risk management presentation May 6 2013
Risk management presentation May 6 2013
 
Haiti Priorise Outcome Presentation
Haiti Priorise Outcome PresentationHaiti Priorise Outcome Presentation
Haiti Priorise Outcome Presentation
 
Module 45 putting it all together
Module 45 putting it all togetherModule 45 putting it all together
Module 45 putting it all together
 
2018 DRR Financing 3.1 Karina Whalley
2018 DRR Financing 3.1 Karina Whalley2018 DRR Financing 3.1 Karina Whalley
2018 DRR Financing 3.1 Karina Whalley
 
Advance Market Commitments for Climate Change
Advance Market Commitments for Climate ChangeAdvance Market Commitments for Climate Change
Advance Market Commitments for Climate Change
 
Scotsem-Economic Resilience_F.PDF
Scotsem-Economic Resilience_F.PDFScotsem-Economic Resilience_F.PDF
Scotsem-Economic Resilience_F.PDF
 
The Construction Industry Has A Huge Impact On The...
The Construction Industry Has A Huge Impact On The...The Construction Industry Has A Huge Impact On The...
The Construction Industry Has A Huge Impact On The...
 
When Business Continuity Becomes a Boardroom Issue Elvin(20071007)
When Business Continuity Becomes a Boardroom Issue Elvin(20071007)When Business Continuity Becomes a Boardroom Issue Elvin(20071007)
When Business Continuity Becomes a Boardroom Issue Elvin(20071007)
 
Understanding Integrated Care in England
Understanding Integrated Care in EnglandUnderstanding Integrated Care in England
Understanding Integrated Care in England
 
Economic Consequence Analysis, Prof. Adam Rose, USC
Economic Consequence Analysis, Prof. Adam Rose, USCEconomic Consequence Analysis, Prof. Adam Rose, USC
Economic Consequence Analysis, Prof. Adam Rose, USC
 
U1038351 SCOTT WILLIAMSON
U1038351 SCOTT WILLIAMSONU1038351 SCOTT WILLIAMSON
U1038351 SCOTT WILLIAMSON
 
Making sense of sustainable development
Making sense of sustainable developmentMaking sense of sustainable development
Making sense of sustainable development
 
Pest industry 2013
Pest industry 2013Pest industry 2013
Pest industry 2013
 
The Domestic Support Issues and Prospects
The Domestic Support Issues and ProspectsThe Domestic Support Issues and Prospects
The Domestic Support Issues and Prospects
 

Plus de John Blue

Jordan Hoewischer - OACI Farmer Certification Program
Jordan Hoewischer - OACI Farmer Certification ProgramJordan Hoewischer - OACI Farmer Certification Program
Jordan Hoewischer - OACI Farmer Certification ProgramJohn Blue
 
Fred Yoder - No-till and Climate Change: Fact, Fiction, and Ignorance
Fred Yoder - No-till and Climate Change: Fact, Fiction, and IgnoranceFred Yoder - No-till and Climate Change: Fact, Fiction, and Ignorance
Fred Yoder - No-till and Climate Change: Fact, Fiction, and IgnoranceJohn Blue
 
Dr. John Grove - Fifty Years Of No-till Research In Kentucky
Dr. John Grove - Fifty Years Of No-till Research In KentuckyDr. John Grove - Fifty Years Of No-till Research In Kentucky
Dr. John Grove - Fifty Years Of No-till Research In KentuckyJohn Blue
 
Dr. Warren Dick - Pioneering No-till Research Since 1962
Dr. Warren Dick - Pioneering No-till Research Since 1962Dr. Warren Dick - Pioneering No-till Research Since 1962
Dr. Warren Dick - Pioneering No-till Research Since 1962John Blue
 
Dr. Christine Sprunger - The role that roots play in building soil organic ma...
Dr. Christine Sprunger - The role that roots play in building soil organic ma...Dr. Christine Sprunger - The role that roots play in building soil organic ma...
Dr. Christine Sprunger - The role that roots play in building soil organic ma...John Blue
 
Dr. Leonardo Deiss - Stratification, the Role of Roots, and Yield Trends afte...
Dr. Leonardo Deiss - Stratification, the Role of Roots, and Yield Trends afte...Dr. Leonardo Deiss - Stratification, the Role of Roots, and Yield Trends afte...
Dr. Leonardo Deiss - Stratification, the Role of Roots, and Yield Trends afte...John Blue
 
Dr. Steve Culman - No-Till Yield Data Analysis
Dr. Steve Culman - No-Till Yield Data AnalysisDr. Steve Culman - No-Till Yield Data Analysis
Dr. Steve Culman - No-Till Yield Data AnalysisJohn Blue
 
Alan Sundermeier and Dr. Vinayak Shedekar - Soil biological Response to BMPs
Alan Sundermeier and Dr. Vinayak Shedekar - Soil biological Response to BMPs Alan Sundermeier and Dr. Vinayak Shedekar - Soil biological Response to BMPs
Alan Sundermeier and Dr. Vinayak Shedekar - Soil biological Response to BMPs John Blue
 
Dr. Curtis Young - Attracting And Protecting Pollinators
 Dr. Curtis Young - Attracting And Protecting Pollinators Dr. Curtis Young - Attracting And Protecting Pollinators
Dr. Curtis Young - Attracting And Protecting PollinatorsJohn Blue
 
Garth Ruff - Alternative Forages
Garth Ruff - Alternative Forages Garth Ruff - Alternative Forages
Garth Ruff - Alternative Forages John Blue
 
Sarah Noggle - Cover Crop Decision Tool Selector
 Sarah Noggle - Cover Crop Decision Tool Selector Sarah Noggle - Cover Crop Decision Tool Selector
Sarah Noggle - Cover Crop Decision Tool SelectorJohn Blue
 
Jim Belt - Hemp Regulations
Jim Belt - Hemp RegulationsJim Belt - Hemp Regulations
Jim Belt - Hemp RegulationsJohn Blue
 
John Barker - UAVs: Where Are We And What's Next
John Barker - UAVs: Where Are We And What's NextJohn Barker - UAVs: Where Are We And What's Next
John Barker - UAVs: Where Are We And What's NextJohn Blue
 
Dr. Rajbir Bajwa - Medical uses of Marijuana
 Dr. Rajbir Bajwa - Medical uses of Marijuana Dr. Rajbir Bajwa - Medical uses of Marijuana
Dr. Rajbir Bajwa - Medical uses of MarijuanaJohn Blue
 
Dr. Jeff Stachler - Setting up a Corn and Soybean Herbicide Program with Cove...
Dr. Jeff Stachler - Setting up a Corn and Soybean Herbicide Program with Cove...Dr. Jeff Stachler - Setting up a Corn and Soybean Herbicide Program with Cove...
Dr. Jeff Stachler - Setting up a Corn and Soybean Herbicide Program with Cove...John Blue
 
Dr. Chad Penn - Developing A New Approach To Soil Phosphorus Testing And Reco...
Dr. Chad Penn - Developing A New Approach To Soil Phosphorus Testing And Reco...Dr. Chad Penn - Developing A New Approach To Soil Phosphorus Testing And Reco...
Dr. Chad Penn - Developing A New Approach To Soil Phosphorus Testing And Reco...John Blue
 
Jim Hoorman - Dealing with Cover Crops after Preventative Planting
Jim Hoorman - Dealing with Cover Crops after Preventative PlantingJim Hoorman - Dealing with Cover Crops after Preventative Planting
Jim Hoorman - Dealing with Cover Crops after Preventative PlantingJohn Blue
 
Dr. Sjoerd Duiker - Dealing with Poor Soil Structure and Soil Compaction
Dr. Sjoerd Duiker - Dealing with Poor Soil Structure and Soil Compaction Dr. Sjoerd Duiker - Dealing with Poor Soil Structure and Soil Compaction
Dr. Sjoerd Duiker - Dealing with Poor Soil Structure and Soil Compaction John Blue
 
Christine Brown - Canadian Livestock Producers Efforts to Improve Water Quality
Christine Brown - Canadian Livestock Producers Efforts to Improve Water QualityChristine Brown - Canadian Livestock Producers Efforts to Improve Water Quality
Christine Brown - Canadian Livestock Producers Efforts to Improve Water QualityJohn Blue
 
Dr. Lee Briese - Details Matter (includes details about soil, equipment, cove...
Dr. Lee Briese - Details Matter (includes details about soil, equipment, cove...Dr. Lee Briese - Details Matter (includes details about soil, equipment, cove...
Dr. Lee Briese - Details Matter (includes details about soil, equipment, cove...John Blue
 

Plus de John Blue (20)

Jordan Hoewischer - OACI Farmer Certification Program
Jordan Hoewischer - OACI Farmer Certification ProgramJordan Hoewischer - OACI Farmer Certification Program
Jordan Hoewischer - OACI Farmer Certification Program
 
Fred Yoder - No-till and Climate Change: Fact, Fiction, and Ignorance
Fred Yoder - No-till and Climate Change: Fact, Fiction, and IgnoranceFred Yoder - No-till and Climate Change: Fact, Fiction, and Ignorance
Fred Yoder - No-till and Climate Change: Fact, Fiction, and Ignorance
 
Dr. John Grove - Fifty Years Of No-till Research In Kentucky
Dr. John Grove - Fifty Years Of No-till Research In KentuckyDr. John Grove - Fifty Years Of No-till Research In Kentucky
Dr. John Grove - Fifty Years Of No-till Research In Kentucky
 
Dr. Warren Dick - Pioneering No-till Research Since 1962
Dr. Warren Dick - Pioneering No-till Research Since 1962Dr. Warren Dick - Pioneering No-till Research Since 1962
Dr. Warren Dick - Pioneering No-till Research Since 1962
 
Dr. Christine Sprunger - The role that roots play in building soil organic ma...
Dr. Christine Sprunger - The role that roots play in building soil organic ma...Dr. Christine Sprunger - The role that roots play in building soil organic ma...
Dr. Christine Sprunger - The role that roots play in building soil organic ma...
 
Dr. Leonardo Deiss - Stratification, the Role of Roots, and Yield Trends afte...
Dr. Leonardo Deiss - Stratification, the Role of Roots, and Yield Trends afte...Dr. Leonardo Deiss - Stratification, the Role of Roots, and Yield Trends afte...
Dr. Leonardo Deiss - Stratification, the Role of Roots, and Yield Trends afte...
 
Dr. Steve Culman - No-Till Yield Data Analysis
Dr. Steve Culman - No-Till Yield Data AnalysisDr. Steve Culman - No-Till Yield Data Analysis
Dr. Steve Culman - No-Till Yield Data Analysis
 
Alan Sundermeier and Dr. Vinayak Shedekar - Soil biological Response to BMPs
Alan Sundermeier and Dr. Vinayak Shedekar - Soil biological Response to BMPs Alan Sundermeier and Dr. Vinayak Shedekar - Soil biological Response to BMPs
Alan Sundermeier and Dr. Vinayak Shedekar - Soil biological Response to BMPs
 
Dr. Curtis Young - Attracting And Protecting Pollinators
 Dr. Curtis Young - Attracting And Protecting Pollinators Dr. Curtis Young - Attracting And Protecting Pollinators
Dr. Curtis Young - Attracting And Protecting Pollinators
 
Garth Ruff - Alternative Forages
Garth Ruff - Alternative Forages Garth Ruff - Alternative Forages
Garth Ruff - Alternative Forages
 
Sarah Noggle - Cover Crop Decision Tool Selector
 Sarah Noggle - Cover Crop Decision Tool Selector Sarah Noggle - Cover Crop Decision Tool Selector
Sarah Noggle - Cover Crop Decision Tool Selector
 
Jim Belt - Hemp Regulations
Jim Belt - Hemp RegulationsJim Belt - Hemp Regulations
Jim Belt - Hemp Regulations
 
John Barker - UAVs: Where Are We And What's Next
John Barker - UAVs: Where Are We And What's NextJohn Barker - UAVs: Where Are We And What's Next
John Barker - UAVs: Where Are We And What's Next
 
Dr. Rajbir Bajwa - Medical uses of Marijuana
 Dr. Rajbir Bajwa - Medical uses of Marijuana Dr. Rajbir Bajwa - Medical uses of Marijuana
Dr. Rajbir Bajwa - Medical uses of Marijuana
 
Dr. Jeff Stachler - Setting up a Corn and Soybean Herbicide Program with Cove...
Dr. Jeff Stachler - Setting up a Corn and Soybean Herbicide Program with Cove...Dr. Jeff Stachler - Setting up a Corn and Soybean Herbicide Program with Cove...
Dr. Jeff Stachler - Setting up a Corn and Soybean Herbicide Program with Cove...
 
Dr. Chad Penn - Developing A New Approach To Soil Phosphorus Testing And Reco...
Dr. Chad Penn - Developing A New Approach To Soil Phosphorus Testing And Reco...Dr. Chad Penn - Developing A New Approach To Soil Phosphorus Testing And Reco...
Dr. Chad Penn - Developing A New Approach To Soil Phosphorus Testing And Reco...
 
Jim Hoorman - Dealing with Cover Crops after Preventative Planting
Jim Hoorman - Dealing with Cover Crops after Preventative PlantingJim Hoorman - Dealing with Cover Crops after Preventative Planting
Jim Hoorman - Dealing with Cover Crops after Preventative Planting
 
Dr. Sjoerd Duiker - Dealing with Poor Soil Structure and Soil Compaction
Dr. Sjoerd Duiker - Dealing with Poor Soil Structure and Soil Compaction Dr. Sjoerd Duiker - Dealing with Poor Soil Structure and Soil Compaction
Dr. Sjoerd Duiker - Dealing with Poor Soil Structure and Soil Compaction
 
Christine Brown - Canadian Livestock Producers Efforts to Improve Water Quality
Christine Brown - Canadian Livestock Producers Efforts to Improve Water QualityChristine Brown - Canadian Livestock Producers Efforts to Improve Water Quality
Christine Brown - Canadian Livestock Producers Efforts to Improve Water Quality
 
Dr. Lee Briese - Details Matter (includes details about soil, equipment, cove...
Dr. Lee Briese - Details Matter (includes details about soil, equipment, cove...Dr. Lee Briese - Details Matter (includes details about soil, equipment, cove...
Dr. Lee Briese - Details Matter (includes details about soil, equipment, cove...
 

Dernier

Low Rate Call Girls Mumbai Suman 9910780858 Independent Escort Service Mumbai
Low Rate Call Girls Mumbai Suman 9910780858 Independent Escort Service MumbaiLow Rate Call Girls Mumbai Suman 9910780858 Independent Escort Service Mumbai
Low Rate Call Girls Mumbai Suman 9910780858 Independent Escort Service Mumbaisonalikaur4
 
Bangalore Call Girls Marathahalli 📞 9907093804 High Profile Service 100% Safe
Bangalore Call Girls Marathahalli 📞 9907093804 High Profile Service 100% SafeBangalore Call Girls Marathahalli 📞 9907093804 High Profile Service 100% Safe
Bangalore Call Girls Marathahalli 📞 9907093804 High Profile Service 100% Safenarwatsonia7
 
Call Girl Bangalore Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Bangalore
Call Girl Bangalore Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service BangaloreCall Girl Bangalore Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Bangalore
Call Girl Bangalore Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Bangalorenarwatsonia7
 
Glomerular Filtration and determinants of glomerular filtration .pptx
Glomerular Filtration and  determinants of glomerular filtration .pptxGlomerular Filtration and  determinants of glomerular filtration .pptx
Glomerular Filtration and determinants of glomerular filtration .pptxDr.Nusrat Tariq
 
Russian Call Girls in Pune Riya 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call gi...
Russian Call Girls in Pune Riya 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call gi...Russian Call Girls in Pune Riya 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call gi...
Russian Call Girls in Pune Riya 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call gi...Miss joya
 
Artifacts in Nuclear Medicine with Identifying and resolving artifacts.
Artifacts in Nuclear Medicine with Identifying and resolving artifacts.Artifacts in Nuclear Medicine with Identifying and resolving artifacts.
Artifacts in Nuclear Medicine with Identifying and resolving artifacts.MiadAlsulami
 
Low Rate Call Girls Pune Esha 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girl...
Low Rate Call Girls Pune Esha 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girl...Low Rate Call Girls Pune Esha 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girl...
Low Rate Call Girls Pune Esha 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girl...Miss joya
 
Call Girls Service Nandiambakkam | 7001305949 At Low Cost Cash Payment Booking
Call Girls Service Nandiambakkam | 7001305949 At Low Cost Cash Payment BookingCall Girls Service Nandiambakkam | 7001305949 At Low Cost Cash Payment Booking
Call Girls Service Nandiambakkam | 7001305949 At Low Cost Cash Payment BookingNehru place Escorts
 
High Profile Call Girls Jaipur Vani 8445551418 Independent Escort Service Jaipur
High Profile Call Girls Jaipur Vani 8445551418 Independent Escort Service JaipurHigh Profile Call Girls Jaipur Vani 8445551418 Independent Escort Service Jaipur
High Profile Call Girls Jaipur Vani 8445551418 Independent Escort Service Jaipurparulsinha
 
College Call Girls Pune Mira 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girls...
College Call Girls Pune Mira 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girls...College Call Girls Pune Mira 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girls...
College Call Girls Pune Mira 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girls...Miss joya
 
Kolkata Call Girls Services 9907093804 @24x7 High Class Babes Here Call Now
Kolkata Call Girls Services 9907093804 @24x7 High Class Babes Here Call NowKolkata Call Girls Services 9907093804 @24x7 High Class Babes Here Call Now
Kolkata Call Girls Services 9907093804 @24x7 High Class Babes Here Call NowNehru place Escorts
 
Hemostasis Physiology and Clinical correlations by Dr Faiza.pdf
Hemostasis Physiology and Clinical correlations by Dr Faiza.pdfHemostasis Physiology and Clinical correlations by Dr Faiza.pdf
Hemostasis Physiology and Clinical correlations by Dr Faiza.pdfMedicoseAcademics
 
Ahmedabad Call Girls CG Road 🔝9907093804 Short 1500 💋 Night 6000
Ahmedabad Call Girls CG Road 🔝9907093804  Short 1500  💋 Night 6000Ahmedabad Call Girls CG Road 🔝9907093804  Short 1500  💋 Night 6000
Ahmedabad Call Girls CG Road 🔝9907093804 Short 1500 💋 Night 6000aliya bhat
 
Housewife Call Girls Bangalore - Call 7001305949 Rs-3500 with A/C Room Cash o...
Housewife Call Girls Bangalore - Call 7001305949 Rs-3500 with A/C Room Cash o...Housewife Call Girls Bangalore - Call 7001305949 Rs-3500 with A/C Room Cash o...
Housewife Call Girls Bangalore - Call 7001305949 Rs-3500 with A/C Room Cash o...narwatsonia7
 
Aspirin presentation slides by Dr. Rewas Ali
Aspirin presentation slides by Dr. Rewas AliAspirin presentation slides by Dr. Rewas Ali
Aspirin presentation slides by Dr. Rewas AliRewAs ALI
 
Asthma Review - GINA guidelines summary 2024
Asthma Review - GINA guidelines summary 2024Asthma Review - GINA guidelines summary 2024
Asthma Review - GINA guidelines summary 2024Gabriel Guevara MD
 
See the 2,456 pharmacies on the National E-Pharmacy Platform
See the 2,456 pharmacies on the National E-Pharmacy PlatformSee the 2,456 pharmacies on the National E-Pharmacy Platform
See the 2,456 pharmacies on the National E-Pharmacy PlatformKweku Zurek
 
Call Girls ITPL Just Call 7001305949 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls ITPL Just Call 7001305949 Top Class Call Girl Service AvailableCall Girls ITPL Just Call 7001305949 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls ITPL Just Call 7001305949 Top Class Call Girl Service Availablenarwatsonia7
 
Russian Call Girl Brookfield - 7001305949 Escorts Service 50% Off with Cash O...
Russian Call Girl Brookfield - 7001305949 Escorts Service 50% Off with Cash O...Russian Call Girl Brookfield - 7001305949 Escorts Service 50% Off with Cash O...
Russian Call Girl Brookfield - 7001305949 Escorts Service 50% Off with Cash O...narwatsonia7
 
VIP Call Girls Lucknow Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Lucknow
VIP Call Girls Lucknow Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service LucknowVIP Call Girls Lucknow Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Lucknow
VIP Call Girls Lucknow Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Lucknownarwatsonia7
 

Dernier (20)

Low Rate Call Girls Mumbai Suman 9910780858 Independent Escort Service Mumbai
Low Rate Call Girls Mumbai Suman 9910780858 Independent Escort Service MumbaiLow Rate Call Girls Mumbai Suman 9910780858 Independent Escort Service Mumbai
Low Rate Call Girls Mumbai Suman 9910780858 Independent Escort Service Mumbai
 
Bangalore Call Girls Marathahalli 📞 9907093804 High Profile Service 100% Safe
Bangalore Call Girls Marathahalli 📞 9907093804 High Profile Service 100% SafeBangalore Call Girls Marathahalli 📞 9907093804 High Profile Service 100% Safe
Bangalore Call Girls Marathahalli 📞 9907093804 High Profile Service 100% Safe
 
Call Girl Bangalore Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Bangalore
Call Girl Bangalore Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service BangaloreCall Girl Bangalore Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Bangalore
Call Girl Bangalore Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Bangalore
 
Glomerular Filtration and determinants of glomerular filtration .pptx
Glomerular Filtration and  determinants of glomerular filtration .pptxGlomerular Filtration and  determinants of glomerular filtration .pptx
Glomerular Filtration and determinants of glomerular filtration .pptx
 
Russian Call Girls in Pune Riya 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call gi...
Russian Call Girls in Pune Riya 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call gi...Russian Call Girls in Pune Riya 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call gi...
Russian Call Girls in Pune Riya 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call gi...
 
Artifacts in Nuclear Medicine with Identifying and resolving artifacts.
Artifacts in Nuclear Medicine with Identifying and resolving artifacts.Artifacts in Nuclear Medicine with Identifying and resolving artifacts.
Artifacts in Nuclear Medicine with Identifying and resolving artifacts.
 
Low Rate Call Girls Pune Esha 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girl...
Low Rate Call Girls Pune Esha 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girl...Low Rate Call Girls Pune Esha 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girl...
Low Rate Call Girls Pune Esha 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girl...
 
Call Girls Service Nandiambakkam | 7001305949 At Low Cost Cash Payment Booking
Call Girls Service Nandiambakkam | 7001305949 At Low Cost Cash Payment BookingCall Girls Service Nandiambakkam | 7001305949 At Low Cost Cash Payment Booking
Call Girls Service Nandiambakkam | 7001305949 At Low Cost Cash Payment Booking
 
High Profile Call Girls Jaipur Vani 8445551418 Independent Escort Service Jaipur
High Profile Call Girls Jaipur Vani 8445551418 Independent Escort Service JaipurHigh Profile Call Girls Jaipur Vani 8445551418 Independent Escort Service Jaipur
High Profile Call Girls Jaipur Vani 8445551418 Independent Escort Service Jaipur
 
College Call Girls Pune Mira 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girls...
College Call Girls Pune Mira 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girls...College Call Girls Pune Mira 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girls...
College Call Girls Pune Mira 9907093804 Short 1500 Night 6000 Best call girls...
 
Kolkata Call Girls Services 9907093804 @24x7 High Class Babes Here Call Now
Kolkata Call Girls Services 9907093804 @24x7 High Class Babes Here Call NowKolkata Call Girls Services 9907093804 @24x7 High Class Babes Here Call Now
Kolkata Call Girls Services 9907093804 @24x7 High Class Babes Here Call Now
 
Hemostasis Physiology and Clinical correlations by Dr Faiza.pdf
Hemostasis Physiology and Clinical correlations by Dr Faiza.pdfHemostasis Physiology and Clinical correlations by Dr Faiza.pdf
Hemostasis Physiology and Clinical correlations by Dr Faiza.pdf
 
Ahmedabad Call Girls CG Road 🔝9907093804 Short 1500 💋 Night 6000
Ahmedabad Call Girls CG Road 🔝9907093804  Short 1500  💋 Night 6000Ahmedabad Call Girls CG Road 🔝9907093804  Short 1500  💋 Night 6000
Ahmedabad Call Girls CG Road 🔝9907093804 Short 1500 💋 Night 6000
 
Housewife Call Girls Bangalore - Call 7001305949 Rs-3500 with A/C Room Cash o...
Housewife Call Girls Bangalore - Call 7001305949 Rs-3500 with A/C Room Cash o...Housewife Call Girls Bangalore - Call 7001305949 Rs-3500 with A/C Room Cash o...
Housewife Call Girls Bangalore - Call 7001305949 Rs-3500 with A/C Room Cash o...
 
Aspirin presentation slides by Dr. Rewas Ali
Aspirin presentation slides by Dr. Rewas AliAspirin presentation slides by Dr. Rewas Ali
Aspirin presentation slides by Dr. Rewas Ali
 
Asthma Review - GINA guidelines summary 2024
Asthma Review - GINA guidelines summary 2024Asthma Review - GINA guidelines summary 2024
Asthma Review - GINA guidelines summary 2024
 
See the 2,456 pharmacies on the National E-Pharmacy Platform
See the 2,456 pharmacies on the National E-Pharmacy PlatformSee the 2,456 pharmacies on the National E-Pharmacy Platform
See the 2,456 pharmacies on the National E-Pharmacy Platform
 
Call Girls ITPL Just Call 7001305949 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls ITPL Just Call 7001305949 Top Class Call Girl Service AvailableCall Girls ITPL Just Call 7001305949 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls ITPL Just Call 7001305949 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
 
Russian Call Girl Brookfield - 7001305949 Escorts Service 50% Off with Cash O...
Russian Call Girl Brookfield - 7001305949 Escorts Service 50% Off with Cash O...Russian Call Girl Brookfield - 7001305949 Escorts Service 50% Off with Cash O...
Russian Call Girl Brookfield - 7001305949 Escorts Service 50% Off with Cash O...
 
VIP Call Girls Lucknow Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Lucknow
VIP Call Girls Lucknow Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service LucknowVIP Call Girls Lucknow Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Lucknow
VIP Call Girls Lucknow Nandini 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Lucknow
 

Dr. Sebastian E. Heath - Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinion

  • 1. FMD, Animal AgricultureFMD, Animal Agriculture and Public Opinionand Public Opinion NIAA 2013 Annual ConferenceNIAA 2013 Annual Conference Merging Values and TechnologyMerging Values and Technology Sebastian E Heath, VetMB, PhDSebastian E Heath, VetMB, PhD Washington, DCWashington, DC
  • 2. Immediate devastation from stamping out is usually attributed to cost of operations and personal loss However, in the long run, restructuring of industry and changing priorities for rural areas have a much larger impact
  • 3. The US has a Perfect TrackThe US has a Perfect Track Record of Successful ResponseRecord of Successful Response to Foreign Animal Diseaseto Foreign Animal Disease OutbreaksOutbreaks Success measured in terms of:Success measured in terms of: EradicationEradication Cost ComparisonCost Comparison DurationDuration Command and ControlCommand and Control
  • 4. However, Technical Plans do not Address theHowever, Technical Plans do not Address the Full Spectrum of Impacts of an OutbreakFull Spectrum of Impacts of an Outbreak  Traditional accounting in outbreaks uses talliesTraditional accounting in outbreaks uses tallies  Interpreted as sum of direct and indirect costsInterpreted as sum of direct and indirect costs  Agriculture is driven by economic efficiencyAgriculture is driven by economic efficiency  Economist approach (cost categories)Economist approach (cost categories)  Transaction costsTransaction costs  Indirect cost/Lost RevenueIndirect cost/Lost Revenue  Marginal costsMarginal costs  Opportunity costsOpportunity costs  Emergencies are economic disruptions (shocks)Emergencies are economic disruptions (shocks)  Successful plans minimize disruptionSuccessful plans minimize disruption  Either driven by or shape public opinionEither driven by or shape public opinion
  • 5. Tiers of Preparedness/PlanningTiers of Preparedness/Planning  TacticalTactical  Focus on managing personnel, equipment and resourcesFocus on managing personnel, equipment and resources  Facilitates incident responseFacilitates incident response  OperationalOperational  Defines roles and responsibilities, tasks, integration andDefines roles and responsibilities, tasks, integration and actions required of jurisdictions, departments, agencies andactions required of jurisdictions, departments, agencies and private sectorprivate sector  Facilitates unified responseFacilitates unified response  StrategicStrategic  Describes how jurisdiction wants to meet responsibilitiesDescribes how jurisdiction wants to meet responsibilities over the long-termover the long-term  Driven by policy and (public) prioritiesDriven by policy and (public) priorities
  • 6. To Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease OutbreaksTo Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks It Is Helpful to Study How Costs are DistributedIt Is Helpful to Study How Costs are Distributed Costs arising in emergencies:Costs arising in emergencies:  Transaction costsTransaction costs  Direct costsDirect costs  Lost revenueLost revenue  Indirect costsIndirect costs  Marginal costsMarginal costs  Cost of proving disease statusCost of proving disease status  Opportunity costsOpportunity costs  What else could have been done with theWhat else could have been done with the same resources?same resources?  Economic multiplier effectEconomic multiplier effect Operational Tactical Strategic Costs Affected by Preparedness/Planning Efforts
  • 7. Transaction (Direct) CostsTransaction (Direct) Costs  Commonly confused with tally of operationalCommonly confused with tally of operational outlaysoutlays  E.g., “The FMD outbreak in the UK cost theE.g., “The FMD outbreak in the UK cost the livestock industrylivestock industry £2.4 billion”£2.4 billion”  Better: the additional cost of doing businessBetter: the additional cost of doing business  ““The cost to administer operational outlays was …”The cost to administer operational outlays was …”  2005 FMD hoax in New Zealand: NZ$ 2M2005 FMD hoax in New Zealand: NZ$ 2M  Federal compensation in US (non-indemnity)Federal compensation in US (non-indemnity)  Interest on loansInterest on loans
  • 8. Transaction Cost Example:Transaction Cost Example: Moorlands Hotel, North York MoorsMoorlands Hotel, North York Moors  In 2003 theIn 2003 the Moorlands Hotel inMoorlands Hotel in North York Moors,North York Moors, closed because ofclosed because of over £25,000 in Bankover £25,000 in Bank Charges on LoansCharges on Loans that could not bethat could not be repaid after the FMDrepaid after the FMD OutbreakOutbreak
  • 9. Lost Revenue (Indirect Costs)Lost Revenue (Indirect Costs)  Lost incomeLost income  Livestock: Lost productionLivestock: Lost production  Tourism income in the UKTourism income in the UK  Affected by co-dependenciesAffected by co-dependencies of systemof system  Often cannot be foreseenOften cannot be foreseen completelycompletely  Should not be assumed toShould not be assumed to apply to all situationsapply to all situations
  • 10. Lost Revenue Example: Shambles, York, 2006Lost Revenue Example: Shambles, York, 2006 “A combination of 9/11, the SARS and foot and mouth scares a few years ago, together with the floods, had a massive impact in reducing the number of tourists, particularly big- spending Americans.” http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/display.var.1333798.0.0.php
  • 11. Marginal CostsMarginal Costs  The increase in cost needed to produce moreThe increase in cost needed to produce more  For example:For example:  In Veterinary Practice: Cost of staff overtime to seeIn Veterinary Practice: Cost of staff overtime to see more clientsmore clients  In Animal Disease Control Programs: Increased costIn Animal Disease Control Programs: Increased cost of doing business, e.g., cost ofof doing business, e.g., cost of  Active surveillance over existing (passive) surveillanceActive surveillance over existing (passive) surveillance  US BSE surveillance programUS BSE surveillance program  Operations (contracts)Operations (contracts)  IndemnityIndemnity
  • 12. Marginal Cost ExampleMarginal Cost Example Federal Cost (non-indemnity) for Response to DiseaseFederal Cost (non-indemnity) for Response to Disease Outbreaks (23-89% of disbursements)Outbreaks (23-89% of disbursements) END Compensation 25% Transportation 1% Contracts 58% Supplies 16% BSE Compensation 37% Transportation 6% Contracts 31% Supplies 26% WAS Compensation 89% Transportation 3% Contracts 5% Supplies 3% GON Compensation 23% Transportation 0% Contracts 57% Supplies 20%
  • 13. Opportunity CostOpportunity Cost  Cost of choosing one option over anotherCost of choosing one option over another  Finite resources dictate that every option/choice occurs atFinite resources dictate that every option/choice occurs at the expense of anotherthe expense of another  Costs are determined by asking:Costs are determined by asking:  What will not get done as a result of my choice?What will not get done as a result of my choice?  Which option has greater cost (immediately vs. long term)?Which option has greater cost (immediately vs. long term)?  Magnitude of opportunity cost driven inMagnitude of opportunity cost driven in  Short term by size and distribution of affected stakeholderShort term by size and distribution of affected stakeholder groupsgroups  Long term by economic multiplier effect resulting fromLong term by economic multiplier effect resulting from redistributionredistribution
  • 14. Opportunity Costs Resulting fromOpportunity Costs Resulting from Response to FMD in the UKResponse to FMD in the UK  UK paid $263M less in subsidies in 2002 than inUK paid $263M less in subsidies in 2002 than in 20012001  Approximately equal to cost of lost tradeApproximately equal to cost of lost trade  By 2006 waste management at FMD burial sitesBy 2006 waste management at FMD burial sites had become a lucrative businesshad become a lucrative business
  • 15. Opportunity Cost Example:Opportunity Cost Example: Carcass Disposal at Great Orton Airfield, CumbriaCarcass Disposal at Great Orton Airfield, Cumbria • In 2001, 466,312 carcasses, comprising 448,508 sheep, 12,085 cattle and 5,719 pigs were buried in 26 trenches. • £12M to build facility • In 2006, still disposing of 240m3 leachate/week • £850,000/yr. to maintain
  • 16. Opportunity Cost Example:Opportunity Cost Example: Ash Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial SiteAsh Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial Site  In 2001, 174,660In 2001, 174,660 carcassescarcasses buried  £7.5M to£7.5M to constructconstruct  In 2003, “Ash MoorIn 2003, “Ash Moor site to be restored tosite to be restored to farmland”farmland”  In 2006 £240,000/yr.In 2006 £240,000/yr. to maintain (security,to maintain (security, drainage,drainage, maintenance)maintenance)
  • 17. Opportunity Cost: Economic Multiplier EffectOpportunity Cost: Economic Multiplier Effect  For every dollar by invested (incl. governmentFor every dollar by invested (incl. government spending) how much morespending) how much more  Spending (demand) and employment (jobs) are generatedSpending (demand) and employment (jobs) are generated  Agriculture vs. Industrial vs. Services vs. ConstructionAgriculture vs. Industrial vs. Services vs. Construction SectorsSectors  Choices often driven by public interestsChoices often driven by public interests For exampleFor example  Does paying for cleaning and disinfection after an FADDoes paying for cleaning and disinfection after an FAD generate more economic growth and jobs if the work isgenerate more economic growth and jobs if the work is done by federal employees or contractors?done by federal employees or contractors?  Short term: Added income supports comparable increases inShort term: Added income supports comparable increases in spendingspending  Long term: Contracts supports more jobsLong term: Contracts supports more jobs
  • 18. Long term outcome:Long term outcome: Moorlands Hotel, North York MoorsMoorlands Hotel, North York Moors  By 2012 the hotelBy 2012 the hotel was under newwas under new management andmanagement and rated amongst therated amongst the best hotels inbest hotels in YorkshireYorkshire http://www.britainsfinest.co.uk/bedandbreakfast/bedandbreakfast.cfm/searchazref/moorlands-country- house http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6722995.stm
  • 19. Economic Recovery from 2001 FMDEconomic Recovery from 2001 FMD Shambles, YorkShambles, York The Shambles, York, is now a major tourist destination with international recognition
  • 20. Economic Recovery: Ash Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial SiteEconomic Recovery: Ash Moor, Meeth, Devon, Burial Site • In 2010, “Landfill gives Butterflies a Boost” … awarded £257,469 to help boost the fortunes of a number of fritillary butterfly species on Dartmoor. • In 2013 “Ash Moor is a real rags to riches story, which now has a far more positive future. Wildlife Trust is managing the woodland and hedgerows and putting in a series of pond and scrapes. The site is buzzing with wildlife … so hopefully lots for people to see” http://www.dartmoor-npa.gov.uk/__data/assets/image/0008/93950/20110516- DNPA-NB-Pearl-bordered-Fritillary-web.jpg
  • 21. To Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease OutbreaksTo Fully Understand the Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks It Is Helpful to Study How Costs are DistributedIt Is Helpful to Study How Costs are Distributed Costs arising in emergencies:Costs arising in emergencies:  Transaction costsTransaction costs  Direct costsDirect costs  Lost revenueLost revenue  Indirect costsIndirect costs  Marginal costsMarginal costs  Cost of proving disease statusCost of proving disease status  Opportunity costsOpportunity costs  What else could have been done with theWhat else could have been done with the same resources?same resources?  Economic multiplier effectEconomic multiplier effect Operational Tactical Strategic Costs Affected by Preparedness/Planning Efforts
  • 22. Projected Impact of Stamping Out FMD on 60Projected Impact of Stamping Out FMD on 60 Farms in a Single U.S. Rural CountyFarms in a Single U.S. Rural County  Operational costsOperational costs  $1.4 million/week$1.4 million/week  750 personnel750 personnel  Local impactLocal impact  Approx. $6.4 million per week to the Gross County ProductApprox. $6.4 million per week to the Gross County Product  Lost jobs (1 year):Lost jobs (1 year):  752 from food manufacturing752 from food manufacturing  1,466 from retail1,466 from retail  1,128 from hospitality1,128 from hospitality  1,203 from health and social1,203 from health and social  Stop movement estimated to cost over $700,000 in lostStop movement estimated to cost over $700,000 in lost revenue to producers and owners of non-susceptible speciesrevenue to producers and owners of non-susceptible species
  • 23. Special Interests often Drive Strategic Choices affecting Opportunity Cost and the Impact of Economic Multipliers  Public Opinion Challenges to Agriculture that will likely impact decisions during an FMD outbreak  Environment  Animal Welfare  Food Safety  Economics  Biotechnology
  • 24. Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks: EnvironmentEnvironment Image: Paul de Lhama on flickr http://www.extension.org/sites/default/files/w/b/be/Feature_for_eXtension_beef.jpg In the Netherlands during the 2006 AI outbreak public concern arose over why so much pollution at home to support exports abroad Little discussion on use of marginal land and opportunity costs
  • 25. Impact of Environmental Lobby on TaiwanImpact of Environmental Lobby on Taiwan Swine Industry after FMD in 1998Swine Industry after FMD in 1998 Taiwan EPA issued a moratorium on restocking swine … .. unless farmer could dispose of manure in 3- stage sewer handling facility or relocate
  • 26. Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks: Animal WelfareAnimal Welfare http://www.cattleandhuntranch.com/Uploads/76/68/17668/images/cowcalf.jpg http://www.tinksbeef.com/files/feedlot2.jpg http://advocacy.britannica.com/blog/advocacy/wp-content/uploads/chickens-4.jpghttp://manhattaninfidel.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/chickens.jpg http://gpvec.unl.edu/files/westernu/swine/2009%20Presentations/Danish%20gestation%20crates.JPG http://www.rightonsofshipston.co.uk/images/piglet_closeup_443.jpg Public opinion on animal welfare supports animals being able to roam free. But there is little consideration of animal husbandry on welfare in disasters
  • 27. Animal Welfare is a Major Concern inAnimal Welfare is a Major Concern in DisastersDisasters  More animals suffer in disasters inMore animals suffer in disasters in natural settings than when housednatural settings than when housed  E.g., floods, blizzard, heatE.g., floods, blizzard, heat  Yet intensive agriculture is oftenYet intensive agriculture is often cited as causecited as cause http://assets.knowledge.allianz.com/img/dead_cow_rtr185c4_ah_1_50468.jpg http://olsonfarlow.com/wp-content/themes/olson-farlow/scripts/timthumb.php?src=http://olsonfarlow.com/wp- content/uploads/Omo-River-Ethiopia-National-Geographic-126.jpg&w=780&q=80&a=t
  • 28. Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks: Food SafetyFood Safety http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/c213.0.403.403/p403x403/547019_10151248655940518_830595605_n.jpg http://baby-boomer-depot.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Row-upon-row-of-Processed-Foods.jpg Growing popular interest in locally sourced organic food with novel preparation and retail Little discussion on cost and affordability of food, quality control and variety http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/blogs/youngandhungry/2010/09/15/vote-your-favorite-food-truck-into-the-inaugural-curbside-cook-off/
  • 29. Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks can TurnPublic Opinion in Disease Outbreaks can Turn on Food Safetyon Food Safety  Loss of consumer confidenceLoss of consumer confidence  Loss of value added jobsLoss of value added jobs  Driven byDriven by  Risk communicationRisk communication  Killing animals to save animals is an inherently conflictedKilling animals to save animals is an inherently conflicted messagemessage  Assumption is that killing animals will protect public healthAssumption is that killing animals will protect public health  Will the public accept this?Will the public accept this?  Response optionsResponse options  If the methods used for stamping out adversely affectsIf the methods used for stamping out adversely affects consumer confidenceconsumer confidence  Why do we do it?Why do we do it?
  • 30. Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks: EconomicsEconomics  In it for the moneyIn it for the money  Trade Protection is goodTrade Protection is good VersusVersus  Meat is in high demand worldwideMeat is in high demand worldwide  Economic efficiency is key to sustainabilityEconomic efficiency is key to sustainability  Innovation provides competitive advantageInnovation provides competitive advantage  Disease free trade partners are better forDisease free trade partners are better for exportersexporters
  • 31. PER CAPITA MEAT CONSUMPTION vs. GNP (1971-95 country averages) 0 1 2 3 4 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 Log per capita GNP LogpercapitaMeat Consumption Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study. 10 China India Trend Philippines
  • 32. The highest growth and demand from agriculture is forThe highest growth and demand from agriculture is for animal derived productsanimal derived products Commodity Growth rate per annum (%) Cereals 2.6 Fruit 3.5 Vegetables 4.8 Fish 5.5 Pork 6.3 Poultry 7.7 Projected Growth in Global Meat Demand, 1997-2020 Poultry 40% Pork 31% Beef 24% Sheep/Goat 5% FAO, IFPRI, 1999
  • 33. Changes in Livestock ProductionChanges in Livestock Production Asia SSA WANA CSA Grazing Mixed Industrial -5 0 5 10 15 20 PercentAnnualGrowth Region System Annual Growth Rates of Meat Production Systems 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 AnnualGrowthRate(mean %) Grazing Livestock Mixed Farming Industrial Production Farming System Annual Growth Rate of Livestock Production Systems (1985-90)
  • 34. 3,000.0 3,500.0 4,000.0 4,500.0 5,000.0 5,500.0 6,000.0 6,500.0 7,000.0 7,500.0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Volume(MMTX1,000) FMD Outbreak Mean (1991-7): 6,526 MMT Mean (1998-2004): 5,776 MMT Decrease by 11.5% Impact of FMD on Soy Imports (Pig Feed) (mostly US soy exports) to Taiwan
  • 35. Impact of Syria Becoming Free of FMD - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year USFeedGrainsExports(MT)or SyrianCattlePopulation(X1,000) Mean: 219,000 MT Mean: 662,000 MT Cattle population (head) FMD-positive FMD-free Grain Exports (MT)
  • 36. Trends in Uruguay Beef Exports ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ u[ u] u` ub ue ug ¾ î M } - Year Tons(X1,000) FMD positive FMD free Exports to FMD free countries Exports to FMD infected countries
  • 37. Destination of Uruguay Beef Exports 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2000 Year PercentofTotal Mercosur USA Israel Other NAFTA Other than USA USA Other than USA
  • 38. Global Livestock Populations, US Feed Exports and Foot and Mouth Disease (5-year mean, 1997-2001) Cattle Cattle Pigs Pigs Feedgrains Feedgrains Soybeansandmeal Soybeansandmeal 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 FMD-free FMD-infected Country FMD Status GlobalLivestockPopulation (%#) orUSFeedgrainExports(%MT) N=84 N=86
  • 39. Narrow Views of the Economics of AnimalNarrow Views of the Economics of Animal Agriculture Undermine Its Many BenefitsAgriculture Undermine Its Many Benefits  Meat is a desirable food – worldwideMeat is a desirable food – worldwide  Growing demand correlates with increased incomeGrowing demand correlates with increased income  Meat adds value toMeat adds value to  Pasture (developing countries)Pasture (developing countries)  Feed grains (North America)Feed grains (North America)  Value added agriculture productsValue added agriculture products  Create jobs (processing, distribution, retail and export)Create jobs (processing, distribution, retail and export)  Exports bring in foreign currencyExports bring in foreign currency  A country’s animal disease status affects trade balanceA country’s animal disease status affects trade balance  Every $1 million of value added through agriculture supportsEvery $1 million of value added through agriculture supports approximately 5,000 jobsapproximately 5,000 jobs
  • 40. Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks:Public Opinion in Disease Outbreaks: BiotechnologyBiotechnology http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/files/2012/12/Transgenic-vs-non-transgenic-siblings-large.jpg Public Opinion condones terms such as “Frankenfoods” and questions the value of vaccinating children But little discussion over progress made through science
  • 41. Reports on Science, Disasters andReports on Science, Disasters and Urban Myths are not well MatchedUrban Myths are not well Matched  Media demand is for crises and sensationsMedia demand is for crises and sensations  In response media supplies disproportionate number ofIn response media supplies disproportionate number of reports on, e.g.,reports on, e.g.,  Vaccine and autismVaccine and autism  GMO’s and safety concernsGMO’s and safety concerns  Threat of diseases from animalsThreat of diseases from animals  Growing resentment of vaccines in Pakistan, NigeriaGrowing resentment of vaccines in Pakistan, Nigeria and in many North American familiesand in many North American families  As progress is made will the public laud science orAs progress is made will the public laud science or remember incomplete and pseudo facts?remember incomplete and pseudo facts?
  • 42. Systems Mapping Helps Identify Interests andSystems Mapping Helps Identify Interests and Contributions Before a Crisis StrikesContributions Before a Crisis Strikes  Public Opinion can become a dominant driver ofPublic Opinion can become a dominant driver of strategic choices in a crisisstrategic choices in a crisis  Interests of the public and agriculture are often veryInterests of the public and agriculture are often very focusedfocused  Focused interests have merit but onlyFocused interests have merit but only contributecontribute toto quantity and quality of final productquantity and quality of final product  Systems Mapping is an important tool forSystems Mapping is an important tool for shaping the future or, if ignored, allowingshaping the future or, if ignored, allowing special interests to determine the futurespecial interests to determine the future
  • 43. Systems Map: What’s for Dinner?Systems Map: What’s for Dinner? Each step is necessary but none are sufficient to put dinner on the table. A systems map is a strategic tool to identify interests that drive choices for the future
  • 44. Shocks to the System: Crisis or Opportunity  Peter Löscher CEO of Siemens on Using a ScandalPeter Löscher CEO of Siemens on Using a Scandal to Drive Change:to Drive Change: … But as I always remind anybody who is listening, never miss the opportunities that come from a good crisis—and we certainly didn’t miss ours. The scandal created a sense of urgency without which change would have been much more difficult to achieve, regardless of who was CEO. Siemens is a very proud company with a history of innovation and success. In the absence of a catalyst like this, people would have asked themselves, “Why alter anything?” (Hired as the first outsider toanything?” (Hired as the first outsider to become the company’s top leader)become the company’s top leader)  David King, Science Advisor to PM Tony Blair during the 2011 FMD outbreak: At the Budget, we committed to raising science spending faster than the trend rate of growth of the economy. We can now announce that in total, the average annual growth rate for science funding is 5.8 per cent in real terms.
  • 45. Public Opinion of Animal Agriculture HasPublic Opinion of Animal Agriculture Has Supported its Role in Scientific ProgressSupported its Role in Scientific Progress  Disease eradicationDisease eradication  RinderpestRinderpest  VaccinesVaccines  Encephalitis, clostridial diseasesEncephalitis, clostridial diseases  Environmental healthEnvironmental health  Field HospitalsField Hospitals  Food SafetyFood Safety  HACCPHACCP  EpidemiologyEpidemiology  Herd immunityHerd immunity www.crops.org http://digital.library.okstate.edu/encyclopedia/entries/c/ca077.html
  • 46. The Future of Public Opinion of Animal AgricultureThe Future of Public Opinion of Animal Agriculture Should be Shaped as Supporting Scientific ProgressShould be Shaped as Supporting Scientific Progress  Surveillance, early detection, rapid response andSurveillance, early detection, rapid response and recovery from high consequence diseaserecovery from high consequence disease outbreaksoutbreaks  Tipping point for choice of interventionTipping point for choice of intervention  Disease counter measures using informationDisease counter measures using information technologytechnology  Manage risks from greenhouse gas emissions,Manage risks from greenhouse gas emissions, water use, carbon sequestration, renewable andwater use, carbon sequestration, renewable and bio fuelsbio fuels  Transformative Sustainable Agricultural SystemsTransformative Sustainable Agricultural Systems  Human nutritionHuman nutrition
  • 47. Disease Outbreaks have led to a Restructuring of Rural EconomiesDisease Outbreaks have led to a Restructuring of Rural Economies http://www.farminguk.com/bsp/10130/ews.asp?DBID=103-281-013-081&iPage=1&id=5631 Following the foot and mouth crisis of 2001 he converted some buildings on his 150- acre farm into commercial units. As part of the “Devon Renaissance” Rexon Cross Farm became Wolf Valley Business District providing an inspiring pastoral setting for business After AI outbreaks in Asia and Italy and FMD in the UK there was significant consolidation of the livestock industry, with many small farmers dropping out
  • 48. FMD, Animal Agriculture andFMD, Animal Agriculture and Public OpinionPublic Opinion seheath@comcast.netseheath@comcast.net THANK YOUTHANK YOU