10 key trends to watch for 2014 from GlobalTrends.com

10 Key Trends to
Watch for 2014

www.globaltrends.com

© Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com

1

10 Trends to Watch for 2014
1.

From social everything to being smart socially

2.

Information security: The genie is out of the bottle

3.

Who needs shops anyway?

4.

Redistributing the industrial revolution

5.

Hubonomics: The new face of globalization

6.

Sci-Fi is here: Making the impossible, possible

7.

Growing pains: Transforming markets and generations

8.

Panic versus disbelief: The resource gap grows, the global risks rise – but who is
listening?

9.

Fighting unemployability and unemployerability

10. Surviving in a bipolar world: From expecting consistency to embracing
ambiguity


2

1. From social everything to being
smart socially

3

Social technologies are everywhere, but these
vast repositories of digital “stuff” bury the
exceptional among the unimportant.
It’s time to get socially smart.


4

Users are moving to
niche networks to bring
back the community
feel and intelligence to
social interactions.

Think: Quora, Quibb, Path, Best of All Worlds, Doximity and
GovLoop.
Ask: What’s next after Facebook?

5

Businesses need to get smarter about
extracting and delivering value from big data
because…
…companies with the most advanced big
data analytics capabilities are:
• Twice as likely to be in the top quartile
of financial performance within their
industries.
• Five times as likely to make decisions
much faster than market peers.
Source: Bain & Company


6

For social networks,
mobile is the great
leveller.
Which apps will get
users attention?
1.47

1.22

1.73

1.97

2.18

2.37

2.55

23.7% 20.4% 18.0% 13.4% 10.8% 8.9% 7.5%
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Social network users (billions)

Source:eMarketer

2016

2017

% change


7

Thought your
information was
safe? Think again!

2. Information security: The genie
is out of the bottle

8

Privacy is only an illusion: Cyber-surveillance and data
mining by public and private organizations is increasing –
and don’t forget criminal networks and whistleblowers.

You are
tracked
everywhere
and by
everyone


9

Newly built smart cities are protected
and managed by mass surveillance
BUT residents could be put at risk, if
stockpiles of personal data are hacked.


10

Intelligence no longer belongs only to humans
– deep learning might soon be here

are “playing” with
technologies that will
understand the deeper
meaning of users’ actions
and emotions on social
networks.


11

Retailers are facing a digitally
driven perfect storm.

3. Who needs shops anyway?
Photo: Source=[http://www.flickr.com/photos/womeos/6026330194/ Eaton Centre] * Uploaded bySkeezix1000 |Date=2011-08-09 20:44,
licensed under he Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.

12

By 2017 global mobile
commerce transactions will
exceed US$3.2 trillion, up
from US$1.5 trillion in
2013. (Source: Juniper Research, Mediabistro)
Connectivity, rising
consumer influence, time
scarcity, mobile payments,
and the internet of things,
are changing where, when
and how we shop...

13

…if smart
machines
have not
already
done the
job.

Source: http://www.bornrich.com/self-cleaning-high-tech-fridge-of-the-future-in-the-works.html


14

In the
emerging
Corporation
sharing
Crowd created new goods
economy,
experience
and PROVIDE A PLATFORM
The
sustainable
Collaborative
consumption People build
Economy
Value Chain
are more
Brand
important
MOTIVATE A MARKETPLACE
than
ownership.
Gift good
Swap
Redraw from Altimeter, via Web strategist.

Subscribe

COMPANY AS A SERVICE

Rental

Co-Own

Share goods


15

The future of shops…
Experiential spaces offering
personalized service, e.g. Burberry

Integrated online and offline
value propositions
92% of shoppers
have more confidence in
information sought online
versus anything from a
salesclerk or other source.
(Source: Mediabistro)

Pop-up stores for immediacy
and surprise

Source: Burberry, Regent Street flagship store, London, UK

This image is licensed under the Creative Commons
Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license. Author: Gilda
from London, UK


16

Complex, global value chains are
being redistributed by new
technologies, labor market shifts
and connectivity.

4. Redistributing the industrial
revolution

17

Small-scale
manufacturing,
including 3D is
moving production
closer to markets
and enabling mass
customization –
while the maker
movement goes
mainstream.

Photo: Author Kyle Pearce (www.diygenius.com) via Flickr; licensed for reuse under the Creative Commons AttributionShareAlike 2.0 license.


18

Rising labor costs in developing markets, high unemployment
in developed markets, global access to online talent and
knowledge, plus advances in robotics mean reshoring of
production to developed markets will increase.
Global Average Salary Increases 2012-2014
7.6%

7.2%
5.8%

5.5%

5.8% 5.9%

6.2%

6.0%

5.9%
5.4%

5.8%

6.0%

3.8% 3.7% 3.7%
2.9% 2.9% 3.0%

Africa
Source: Aon

Asia

Latin America

2012 Average Increases

Middle East


North America

Europe



19

As production and consumption become
more distributed, hubs will characterize
the next wave of “globalization.”

5. Hubonomics: The new face of
globalization

20

Hubs will specialize to support the needs of
growing regional trade, emerging city states,
online communities of choice, and the next
generation of flexible workers and
entrepreneurs.


21

Underpinning these hubs will be global
knowledge networks and new business and
governance models based on hubonomics™,
that leverage global assets and hub strengths to
deliver local value.

The World Bank’s SouthSouth Knowledge Exchange
connects countries to share
knowledge to promote
development, for example
exporting India’s dairy
“revolution” to help feed
children in East Africa.

The Asia-Pacific Water Forum’s
KnowledgeHubs are centers of excellence
committed to improving water security in
the Asia-Pacific region by promoting
knowledge sharing and championing
feasible solutions.


22

Scientific breakthroughs
could change our lives,
work, bodies and
intelligence.

6. Sci-Fi is here: Making the impossible
possible

23

Advanced technology is redefining our world
THINK
•
•
•
•
•
•

Mind control and artificial intelligence
Shape-shifting materials
Self-organizing nanobots
Cyborgs and enhanced humans
Space exploration
High-speed, intelligent transportation

24

Thought control has already been
tried on many levels…
•

A HMS research
team controlled a
rat's tail.

•

At UW one
researcher sent a
brain signal via the
internet to control
the hand motions of
a fellow researcher.

•

RAC’s “attentionpowered car” is
controlled by
brainwaves.

•

Ford, BMW, Fiat,
Daimler, Volvo and
Volkswagen are
testing systems that
take control of the
e.g. steering wheel
when risks are
detected.
(Source: PSFK, BBC).


25

Soon shape-shifting materials and self-organizing nanobots will repair
what’s broken. Technology is moving off the desktop and on to our body
while Iron Man-style suits will give troops “superhuman strength.”

Think: 4D printing, swarmbots or M-blocks, Hyperloop, wearable technology
Ask: How can my company tap into this extraordinary world of new
technologies?

26

7. Growing pains: Transforming markets
and generations

27

The golden years of extreme
growth are over but the emerging
markets growth engine is far from
dead…
HOWEVER,
the growing pains of these
markets demand significant shifts
in governance, financial systems,
education and economic policies
to get them back on an upward
track.


28

The “I WANT MORE”
generation with lots of
disposable income to
spend will most likely
be the generation of
transformers that has
the power to restore
growth in emerging
markets.

World consumption, US$ trillion
64
Emerging markets
Developed markets
30
38
12
26
2010

34
2025***

***Estimate based on 2010 private-consumption share of GDP per country and GDP
estimates for 2010 and 2025; assumes private consumption’s share o GDP will remain
constant. Source: McKinsey

29

8. Panic versus denial: The resource gap
grows, the global risks rise –
but who is listening?

30

The complex nexus of food, water, energy and climate
change presents huge environmental and societal
challenges – heating up the battle to access new
resources, from the Arctic to fracking.
EXPECT
More debate and calls for
responsible capitalism.


31

Explosive population and consumption growth will
exacerbate water security challenges in Asia, leading
to potential geopolitical tensions and conflicts.

Source: Princeton


32

Food security is a growing issue. In 2050 the world’s
population could demand TWICE as many resources
as the planet can supply.
How can we get more food on the table?
More vertical farming?

Food hubs like…?

Lab grown food?

Cropmobster
connects producers
of edible but unsold
food with those
needing it.


33

Fighting unemployability
is critical while also
fostering talent for the
future.

9. Fighting unemployability and
unemployerability

34

Companies are desperate for talented workers –
yet unemployment rates remains high

Caterpillar
attempted to hire 26
employees in the
U.S. but nobody
applied!

Unemployed people in the U.S.: 7.3%
Unfilled jobs in the U.S.: 3 million
Unfilled manufacturing jobs in the U.S.: 200,000+

It is time to rethink how to
prepare talent for the future.
Ask: How your organization
can move from
unemployability to helping to
develop the skills of the
future?


35

Governments, NGOs, businesses and other
private institutions must rethink their role in
developing future talent.

Computer maker
Lenovo is
partnering with
leading Chinese
universities to
identify top talent
that may have
gone abroad to
study.

Financial institution Barclays is working with
UNICEF to help reduce youth unemployment
through the Building Young Futures programme.


The Indian
government has
launched the
National Skill
Development
Corporation to
fund training
centers and liaise
with industry.

36

Employers must also focus on organizational
unemployerability – not being able to attract and retain
desired talent – as new generations demand exciting and
meaningful work where they can make an impact.

37

Skills making workers
and leaders successful
today will not stay the
same forever.
New skills are required.
Want to stay on top of the game?
•
•
•
•
•
•

Social intelligence
Agile thinking
Leadership skills
Cross-cultural skills
Innovative, entrepreneurial mindset
Human-machine collaboration


38

10. Surviving in a polarizing world:
The contradictions of leadership

39

The US is still a leading superpower but
is struggling with a very dysfunctional
political system

… while a melting pot of cultures makes
it difficult for the Eurozone to solve
economic, political and security issues.

40

Companies of all shapes and
sizes are playing a bigger role
in solving societal issues.
EXPECT
More companies to combine
profit with purpose and
responsibility.
Companies such as Unilever, Tata, Royal DSM, Marks & Spencer and TorontoDominion Bank are already leading the way demonstrating it is an approach
making good business sense.

41

The contradictions of leadership and life are
increasing faster than our ability to reconcile the
often polarized perspectives and values each
embodies.

Surviving in this world will demand stronger,
responsible leadership comfortable with and
capable of embracing ambiguity and uncertainty, as
opposed to expecting consistency and predictability.

42

How will these trends impact
your organization?
Are you ready?


43

www.globaltrends.com
This presentation is adapted from the GT Briefing 10 Key Trends to Watch in 2014 and The
Global Trends Report 2013: Towards a Distributed Future by Tracey Keys and Thomas
Malnight.
Electronic copies of the briefing and The Global Trends Report 2013 are available on
www.globaltrends.com, and printed copies of The Global Trends Report 2013 can be found
on Amazon.com and Amazon’s European sites.
Don’t forget to register at www.globaltrends.com now to make sure you don’t miss our next
monthly briefing (they are free)!
About the Authors
Tracey Keys is Director of Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. Thomas Malnight is a professor of
strategy and general management at the International Institute for Management Development
(IMD), in Lausanne, Switzerland.

44

10 key trends to watch for 2014 from GlobalTrends.com

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Tendances (20)

En vedette

En vedette (16)

Similaire à 10 key trends to watch for 2014 from GlobalTrends.com

Similaire à 10 key trends to watch for 2014 from GlobalTrends.com (20)

Plus de Tracey Keys

Plus de Tracey Keys (7)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

10 key trends to watch for 2014 from GlobalTrends.com