1. Southern African Institute of Steel Construction Multiplier in structural steel fabrication and construction March 2011

2. What is the multiplier effect ? Knock-on characteristics of economic activities: Example: Investment in a steel building / warehouse Structural steel has to designed, fabricated, painted, transported and erected Raw steel has to be produced in furnaces and rolled into useable plate and sections Iron ore has to be mined and processed Each step requires materials, equipment, etc. People are employed throughout and spend their income in the economy

3. The Multiplier study Conningarth Economists Macro-Economic Impact Analysis Social Accounting Martrix (SAM) - with info from BSA, SARB, StatsSA and Treasury Model analyses requirementsfor commodities, electricity, water, etc. as well as the expenditure on wages and salaries and the income received by state and government

4. The Multiplier impacts On a new structural steel project Direct: Effects in structural steel sector Indirect: Effects in supply industries Induced: Economic impacts from salaries and wages paid in the industry as well as sectors indirectly linked

5. The Multiplier calculations BASE INFORMATION STRUCTURAL STEEL 6000 TONS PER YEAR: (Medium sized company) People employed in fabrication: 210 People employed in construction: 150 Total employment for 6000 tons per annum: 360 * Jobs created for every 1000 tons produced: 60 720 000 TONS PER YEAR: (Industry) People employed in fabrication: 25 200 People employed in construction: 18 240 Total people for 720 000 tons per annum: 43 200

6. The Multiplier creates jobs EMPLOYMENT Company Industry Direct: 360 43 200 Indirect: 192 23 040 Induced: 378 45 360 TOTAL: 931 111 720 - A multiplier of X 2,6 “decent jobs” therefore applies in the economy for every person directly appointed by a fabricator or erection contractor - A further multiplier of X 4 applies to all those dependants relying on each income earner

7. The Multiplier calculations BASE INFORMATION STRUCTURAL STEEL 6000 TONS PER YEAR: (Medium sized company) Sales value of fabrication: R 121 m Sales value in construction: R 52 m Total turnover for 6000 tons per annum: R 173 m Capital Investment required: R 53,97 m * Capital investment required per job created: R 150 000 720 000 TONS PER YEAR: (Industry) Sales value of fabrication: R 14,520 bn Sales value in construction: R 6,240 bn Total turnover for 720 000 tons per annum: R 20,760 bn Total Capital Investment: R 6,476 bn

8. Multiplier growing the economy Value Added / Gross Domestic Product (GDP)*: R Millions Company Industry Direct: 94 11 280 Indirect: 44 5 280 Induced: 110 13 200 TOTAL: 248 29 760 Multiplier: 2,6X * GDP: Sum of salaries, Gross Operating Profit and indirect taxes

10. Indirect: 92 11 040

11. Induced: 205 24 600

12. TOTAL: 352 42 240

14. The Multiplier pays taxes R1billion structural steel project causes R1.43 billion of economic activity, and: Results in R390 million of taxes being collected For investments in infrastructure For incentives for investment and export For social and other grants For services ………

15. The Multiplier used A R1billion imported structural steel project supplied and erected by overseas contractors: Requires R1bn cash outflow to the supplier Loses 25% of potential taxes (14% VAT earned) Loses R1,43 billion of economic activity Loses 5500 decent jobs for a year Loses R 312 m of potential capital formation Does not make economic sense !

16. The Multiplier used R1 billion of imported fabricated steelworkonly * erected by local contractors: (Represents 50 000 tons per annum) Requires R1bn cash outflow Loses 25% of taxes (After 14% of VAT earned) Loses R2,5 billion* of GDP / Value added Loses 8600* decent jobs for a year Does not make economic sense ! * Multiplier of 2,9X applies

17. The Multiplier in practice CONCLUSIONS A multiplier applies in all industries Import substitution is a job creator Local content economically justifies a 25% differential compared to imports Buying South African makes business sense This provides a realistic business case basis for Government decision making on import protection, designating products and investment support…..