The Utzon Lecture Series focuses on the presentation of ideas from leading contributors of international significance in the design, delivery and management of the built environment.
Population ageing is an international phenomenon also occurring in Australia with major social and economic impacts. This lecture will explore its implications for the built environment drawing on the findings of two recent research projects on older home owners and downsizing among older Australians.
Bruce Judd is Professor and Director of the recently established Australian School of Architecture and Design (ASA+D) at UNSW. He has a BArch(hons) and PhD in Architecture and has taught in the Architecture and Urban Design programs at UNSW for over 30 years.
2014 Utzon lecture Series: An Ageing City: Are We Prepared? by Professor Bruce Judd
1.
2. Australian School of Architecture & Design
The Ageing City:
Are We Prepared?
Prof Bruce Judd, Director ASA+D
Photo: Martin Godwin, The Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/feb/08/retailers-older-shoppers-studyPhoto: http://shrewsburyurc.co.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/
3. Overview
Population ageing
Economic and Social Implications
Built Environment Implications
Housing
Urban Planning & Design
Infrastructure
Policy developments
Housing options and choices of older people
Housing and neighbourhood utilisation
Downsizing in later life
Are we prepared?
4. Two AHURI Funded Studies
Dwelling, Land and
Neighbourhood Use by
Older Home Owners
(2010) (co-funded by DoHA*)
With Diana Olsberg, Joanne
Quinn, Lucy Groenhart & Oya
Demirbilek
Downsizing Amongst
Older Australians
(2014)
With Edgar Liu, Hazel Easthope,
Laura Davy & Catherine Bridge
* Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing
5. Who is ‘Older’?
What do we mean by ‘older’?
65+ Age pension eligibility (increasing
from 65-67)?
60+ Eligibility for Senior’s Card?
55+ Empty nesters/pre-retirees?
Should it be:
Chronologically based?
Attitudinally based?
Lifestyle based?
Ability based?
Diversity
Older people are a very diverse group
Generalisations are dangerous Photo: Bruce Judd
6. Ageing is Not What it Used to Be
Shifts in Gerontological Theory
From biological to biopsychosocial theories of ageing
From ‘Disengagement Theory’ to ‘Activity Theory’ and
‘Successful Ageing’
To ecological theories of ageing that consider the social and
physical environment
To Political Economy, Feminist and Critical Theories of ageing
Shifts in Policy Emphasis
Human rights and empowerment
Active, positive and healthy ageing
Independence
Ageing in place
Participation in the community
7. Global Population Ageing: 65+Shareofpopulation(%)
Japan
Portugal
Spain
Germany
Italy
Poland
Singapore
Greece
Austria
China
Netherlands
Finland
Belgium
Iceland
France
UK
Canada
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Ireland
NewZealand
Sweden
Turkey
Mexico
Norway
Denmark
Australia
US
Malaysia
Projected share of population aged 65+ years
40
2010 Change from 2010 to 2060
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: United Nations (2013)
Source: Productivity Commission, 2013
9. Ageing Map of the World
Percentage aged
60 years or over
0-9
10-19
20-24
25-29
30 or over
No data
2012
2050
Source: UNPF and Help Age International, 2012
10. Ageing – An Urban Problem
Urbanisation
10% of the worlds population lived in cities in 1900
53% live in cities today
70% are estimated to live in cities by 2050 (GCIF, 2013)
Global 65+ Population Growth
2010 = 522 million
2050 = 1,475 million
An increase of 183% (GCIF, 2013)
Australia
171% increase from 2010-2050
An additional 7 million 65+ (GCIF, 2013)
Most of the population ageing will take place in cities
11. Contributing Factors
Low fertility rates
Birth control
Female education
Female workforce participation
Low death rates
Increasing longevity
Advances in medical science
Health education (eg smoking and other risks)
Post-war baby-boom generation entering older age
Born 1946 to 1964
Accelerates population ageing from early to mid 21stC
12. Baby Boomers Attitudes & Values
“In retirement boomers may:
refuse to accept that they are ‘old’
be more ethnically heterogeneous,
more selfish, socially polarised,
demanding and belligerent
less accepting, trusting and conforming
than their parents’ generation
prioritise being in control, freedom of
expression and individuality
economically conservative but socially
moderate swinging voters
expect more from retirement than their
parents’ generation” (Quine & Carter, 2006:4) http://www.motorcycleriderbasics.com
13. Baby Boomers & Housing
More likely than previous generations to:
Live independently (not with children or in institutions)
Continue to be active
Live in intergenerational communities
Retaining their existing social networks
Live alone due to higher levels of divorce and separation
Require modified housing
Require specialist services, technology and design, and
Require age-friendly infrastructure and built environment
(Quine & Carter, 2006)
Carbon Footprint
Largest carbon footprint of any age cohort
(Haq et al 2007)
15. Population Ageing in Australian Cities
Source: Major Cities Unit, 2013
Proportion of population aged 65 and over in capital cities, 2008 and 2056
(low and high population ageing projections)
“As the population ages,
the suitability and
affordability of housing
for older people will
become increasingly
important for govern-
ments. …the degree to
which ‘ageing in place’
is an option for older
people depends on the
suitability of the design
features of their dwelling
and the neighbourhood,
as well as the avail-
ability of services.”
Major Cities Unit, 2103
16. Social and Economic Implications
Dependency Ratio
Number of working age
people to those aged 65
and over
Increasing need for health
and aged care support
services
Economic Impact
Reduced Tax Revenue
Increased Expenditure
Age pension
Health
Aged care
7.5
5.0
2.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1970 2010 2050
Dependency Ratio 1970-2050
Source: Productivity Commission 2013
17. The Fiscal Gap
(Commonwealth revenue to spending)
Large budget
blowout predicted
by 2041/2042
5% of GDP
$87 billion in
additional taxes
needed
(IGR, 2002)
2002 Treasury Predictions
2015
Source: Australian Treasury, Intergenerational Report, 2002
18. The Alarmists
Dire Predictions
‘The Silver Tsunami’
Intergenerational warfare
Overwhelmed social
services
Cuts to benefits
Social and political
upheaval
Fiscal crisis due to
declining tax earnings
Declining after tax
earnings
Military aggression
Cartoon: Graham Mackay http://mackaycartoons.net/tag/tsunami/
19. Prophets of Doom
The World Won’t Be Aging Gracefully. Just the Opposite
For the world's wealthy nations, the 2020s are set to be a decade
of hyperaging and population decline. Many countries will
experience fiscal crisis, economic stagnation and ugly
political battles over entitlements and immigration.
Meanwhile, poor countries will be buffeted by their own
demographic storms. Some will be overwhelmed by massive
age waves that they can't afford, while others will be whipsawed
by new explosions of youth whose aspirations they cannot
satisfy. The risk of social and political upheaval and military
aggression will grow throughout the developing world -- even as
the developed world's capacity to deal with these threats
weakens
(Neil Howe and Richard Jackson, The Washington Post, Jan 4, 2009)
20. Watch out! They’re coming to get you!
Cartoon by Shem Cohen: http://cartoonsnap.com/blogspot
21. Intergenerational Inequity
Whilst increasing longevity is to be welcomed, our changing
demographic and expectations of entitlement are placing
increasingly heavy burdens on younger and future generations.
From housing, health and education to employment, taxation,
pensions voting, spending, transport and environmental degradation,
younger generations are under increasing pressure to maintain the
intergenerational compact whilst losing out disproportionately to
older, wealthier cohorts. (Intergenerational Foundation, UK, 2012)
Cartoon: Ingram Pinn, Financial Times,: http://thefinanser.co.ukCartoon: Cox and Forkum, CoxAndForkum.com
22. The Case Against Alarmism
The available evidence indicates that population ageing will
only have a limited effect on healthcare costs, and there is
no evidence that population ageing will cause chaos for our
health system. Policy making in Australia would be improved if
this was more widely acknowledged.
(Coory, 2004)
To varying degrees, all western countries are retrenching in the
expectation of unsustainable costs caused by the needs of
an older population. That this expectation is highly unlikely is
rarely considered, perhaps because it meshes so well with neo-
liberal interests. Sometimes, even evidence that population
ageing is not particularly influential for future public health
costs gets lost in the rhetoric of demographic alarmism.
(Gee, 2002)
23. ‘Be Alert but Not Alarmed’ (with apologies to John Howard)
“…Australia is fortunate to be in a position to decide its
demographic future. But whatever we chose one thing is clear.
The only way to return to the youthful age structure of the
past is by having very large families and dying young. We
do not want to do this. This means that, just as individuals
have to adjust to personal ageing, so do developed societies
have to adjust to demographic ageing.”
(Betts, 2008)
24. Policy Responses to Population Ageing
Economic
Changes to the superannuation system
Increasing the pension age
The baby bonus
Housing help for seniors pilot scheme (2013/14 budget)
Stamp duty exemptions/concessions (4 States & territories)
Social
Promoting independence and active/healthy ageing
Encouraging and supporting ageing in place
Progressively increasing levels of community care
25. National Community Care Initiatives
Initiative Focus
1985: HACC Program • Assistance in the home to reduce residential aged care
• Home modifications to enable ageing in place
1987:Community Options
Projects (COPs)
• More intensive home-based support
• Highly dependent people with complex care needs
• Available to people off all ages (majority 80+)
1992: Community Aged
Care Packages (CACP)
• Specifically for older people
• Tailored to individual needs (capped fees can apply)
1998: Extended Aged
Care at Home program
(EACH)
• For frail aged people
• Flexible high level care package with capped fees
1998: Extended Aged
Care at Home (Dementia)
Program (EACH-D)
• Older people with dementia with behaviours of concern
• High level of care for those capable of living at home
with assistance
2013: Home Care
Packages
• Living Longer Living Better aged care reforms
• Four levels of care replacing CACP, EACH & EACH-D
• From community care to high residential care
26. Implications for the Built Environment
Housing: Ageing in what kind of place?
Housing types
Size of dwellings
No of storeys
Accessibility
Maintenance
Planning
Housing diversity and choice
Location of services for older people
Housing location in relation to services
Age friendly neighbourhood/urban design
Infrastructure
Convenience, accessibility and safety of public transport
27. WHO Age Friendly Cities (2007)
‘Active ageing’ model
Initial network of 33 participating cities
2 in Australia (Melbourne, Melville WA)
Focussing on:
Outdoor spaces & buildings
Transportation
Housing
Social participation
Respect & social inclusion
Civic participation and employment
Communication & information
Community support & health services
International Policy
http://www.who.int/ageing/
publications/
28. National Housing & Urban Policy Initiatives
Initiative Key Themes
1992: National Housing
Strategy
• Howe (1992) Housing for Older Australians:
Affordability, Adjustments and Care
• Housing preferences, mobility
1994: Australian Urban and
Regional Development
Review
• Increase housing choice
• Encouraging more efficient use of housing stock
2002: National Strategy for
an Ageing Australia
• Long-term, whole of government approach needed
• Independence and ageing in place, or moving to more
appropriate accommodation
2002: Disability Standards
for Public Transport
• Accessible vehicles and premises
• Roll-out over 30 years
2003: Prime Ministers
Science Engineering and
Innovation Council
• Healthy/positive ageing
• Need for technical innovation in housing,
neighbourhoods, transport and urban planning
2006: DoHA National
Speakers Series
• ‘A Community for All Ages’: Building the Future
• Need for age-friendly housing and communities
29. National Housing & Urban Policy Initiatives
Initiative Key Themes
2009: National Rental
Affordability Scheme
• Affordable housing
• Accessibility for older people and those with
disabilities
2009: National Dialogue on
Universal Housing Design
• Consultation with wide range of stakeholders
• Strategic Plan, aspiring to 100% of new housing by
2020
2010: Access to Premises –
Buildings Standards,
Disability Discrimination Act
• Includes Class 2 (flat/apartment) buildings
• Level access at building entrance
• Access to at least one floor of sole occupancy units
2012: Livable Housing
Design Guidelines
• Voluntary standards for housing with Silver, Gold and
Platinum level performance/accreditation
• Aim for 100% adoption at Silver level by 2020
2013: Advisory Note on
Streetscape, Public Outdoor
Areas, Fixtures, Fittings and
Furniture
• Human Rights Commission initiative
• Response to industry requests regarding obligations
under the Disability Discrimination Act
• For outdoor areas not covered by Access to Premises
30. NSW State Government Initiatives
Initiative Key Themes
1982: SEPP 5 (Housing for
Older People or People with
a Disability)
• Age restricted to 55+ or people with a disability
• Permitted in land zoned for urban purposes
• Set aside local planning controls
• Location and accessible design requirements
2004: SEPP (Seniors
Living)
• Replaced SEPP5: Balancing growing demand with
maintaining neighbourhood character
2004: Seniors Living Policy
Urban Design Guidelines for
Infill Development
• Companion to SEPP (Seniors Living) by UDAS
• Contextual fit, site planning/design, impacts on
streetscape, neighbours, internal site amenity
2007: SEPP (Housing for
Seniors or People with
Disabilities)
• Amendment to SEPP (Seniors Living)
• Site compatibility certificates required
• Moratorium lifted on land adjoining ‘urban’ zone
2008: Landcom Universal
Housing Design Guidelines
• Universal Housing Design Guidelines
• Planning for all Ages in Built Form Guidelines
2012: NSW Ageing Strategy • Age-friendly local communities grants to councils
• Greater housing choice & monitoring supply
• Grants to assist moving/downsizing to new dwellings
31. Peak Body Initiatives
Organisation Initiative
2002+ Australian Network
for Universal Housing
Design (ANUHD)
• Top 10 Housing Universal Design Features
• Now advocates mandated Livable Housing
Guidelines to Gold level in the Building Code of
Australia
2006: Australian Local
Government Assn. (ALGA)
• Age-friendly Built Environments publication
• Best practice examples and case studies
2009: National Heart
Foundation ALGA & PIA
• Healthy Spaces & Places
• Active/healthy living urban planning/design guidelines
2012: Local Government
Assn. of NSW (ALGA)
• Promotion of inclusive and accessible communities
• Age Friendly Community Grant Scheme (funded by
the Office of Ageing, FACS)
2012: COTA WA (with WA
Dept. of Commerce)
• Seniors Housing Centre
• Your Home Guide to housing options
• Information/seminars on housing options incl.
downsizing
2013: COTA NSW (with
NSW Government)
• Liveable Communities Project
• Creating Age Friendly Communities Workshops
• 23 NSW Councils assisted
32. Older People and Their Housing, 2011
Household Size: Private Dwellings (65+)
27.8
55.8
16.4
48.4
38.2
13.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 Person 2 Persons 3+ Persons
Percentage
No of Residents
65+
85+
Source: ABS Custom Tables, 2011 Census
65+
84% 1 or 2
residents
85+
87% 1 or 2
residents
33. Older People and Their Housing, 2011
Dwelling Structure (65+ and 85+)
Source: ABS Custom Tables, 2011 Census
70.9
9.1 9.6
2.1
8.3
50.4
10.3 10.9
0.5
27.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Separate
House
Semi, Row,
Terrace
Flat,
Apartment
Other
Dwelling
Non Private
Dwelling
Percentage
Dwelling Structure
65+
85+
34. Older People and Their Housing, 2011
Number of Bedrooms (65+ and 85+)
Source: ABS Custom Tables, 2011 Census
5.7
21.2
49.3
23.8
7.6
32.4
44.4
15.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0-1 2 3 4+
Percentage
No of Bedrooms
65+
85+
65+
73% 3+
bedrooms
85+
60% 3+
bedrooms
35. Older People and Their Housing, 2011
Tenure (65+ and 85+)
Source: ABS Custom Tables, 2011 Census
67.3
9.1
4.8 6.9
3.1
8.9
48.5
3.8 4.0 3.5
12.3
27.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Owners Purchasers Public
Rental
Private
Rental
Other Non
Private
Percentage
Tenure
65+
85+
36. Underutilisaton of Housing
The Mismatch Argument
That older people underutilise their housing
They should be encouraged to move to smaller dwellings
Release their larger housing for family households
Utilisation Measure
Canadian National Occupancy Standard (CNOS)
Adopted by ABS as a measure of utilisation
The CNOS Calculation
Relates number of people to number of bedrooms
Children under 5 of either gender can share a bedroom
Children from 5-15 of the same gender can share a bedroom
Adults (married or de-facto) can share a bedroom
37. The Housing Utilisation Study
Participants
55 years and older
1,604 respondents Australia wide
70 face to face interviews in NSW, VIC, QLD, WA and ACT
How Older People 55+ Were Housed (2006 Census)
83% in households of 1 (38%) or 2 (54%) people
81% in detached suburban dwellings
83% in dwellings with 3 or more bedrooms
84% of all dwellings of 55+ ‘underutilised’ by CNOS measure
Survey Findings
91% satisfied with the dwelling size for their household’s needs
Why this apparent contradiction?
38. Temporary Residents
Temporary residents
Stay over at least 20 nights, but less than 6 months annually
Not included in census count for no of permanent residents
25% of respondents had at least one temporary resident
Compared to 12% from 1999 Australian Housing Survey
Types of temporary residents
Child (37%)
Other relative (20%)
Grandchild (18%)
Friend (14%)
Elderly parent (5%)
Tenant/boarder (1%)
“At the present moment I’ve got another
temporary resident. That’s my son. My
eldest boy. He’s forty-nine; he just turned
forty-nine. He’s just split with his wife,
so…it’s temporary, but how temporary,
well it’s been more than twenty nights, put
it that way.”
39. Alternative Use of Bedrooms
Other uses of ‘spare’ bedrooms
Office (34%)
Guest bedroom (27%)
Hobby room (12%)
Storage (9%)
Ironing room (4%)
Reading room (2%)
40. Other Alternative Uses
Additional living rooms used for
Craft rooms
Exercise rooms/gym
Office/study rooms
Library/reading room
‘Spare’ garage/carport space
Workshop
Hobbies
Outdoor living
41. Other Considerations
Desire to age in place
Attachment to the home
Attachment to the location
Attachment to community
Couple’s need for personal space
For hobbies
Separate offices/work spaces
To “get away from each other”
Sleeping separately for health
reasons
Increased use of the home
More time spent at home since
retirement
Now I’m retired I stay at
home much more so I
use the space more. And
I need room for the
grandkids.
Once we retired we
needed space, enough
space to be able to get
away from each other so
that we’re not underfoot.
It is that I know
everything with my eyes
closed and I feel secure
here. Yes. If I go and live
somewhere else, I don’t
know anybody.
43. Barriers to Participation
Paths of travel
Absent
Discontinuous
Poorly maintained
Overgrown
Lack of road crossings
Poor lighting at night
Public access to buildings
Stairs
Lack of ramps
Lack of handrails
Lack of seating
44. Barriers to Participation
Street Furniture & Fixtures
Lack of seating
Lack of shelter
Lack of public toilets
Poor maintenance
Public open space
Inadequate/poor provision
Poor design
Lack of paving
Lack of seating
Lack of shelter
Lack of public toilets
45. Barriers to Participation
Transport Infrastructure
Poor provision or quality of service
(irregular/unreliable)
Waiting/transfer times, queues and
crowding
Confusing timetables and bus routes
Distance or steep topography to public
transport nodes
Lack of seating & shelter
Stair only access to stations and buses
Crime/safety concerns at transport nodes
Lower-income outer-suburban and
some regional towns usually worse
48. Older Home Owners: A Summary
Housing
Most live in 3 or more bedroom dwellings
High levels of satisfaction with dwelling size
Space is generally highly utilised
Alternative uses of bedrooms and other spaces are important to
the health and well being of older people
All reasons why most older people want to stay put
Neighbourhood
Participation in local neighbourhoods is important to older people
Poor provision, quality, continuity, and maintenance of urban
infrastructure are barriers to participation
Many neighbourhoods are not age-friendly and therefore are
barriers to participation
49. The Downsizing Study
Questions
How many older people do downsize?
Why to they downsize?
Into what kind of housing?
With what outcomes?
Should we encourage more older people to downsize?
If so, what might help to facilitate this?
Participants
People who had moved since turning 50 years of age
2767 survey respondents
60 in-depth interviews in three states (NSW, VIC, SA)
Policy Forum in each state
50. Extent of Downsizing
Estimating the number of downsizers
18% of 50+ Australians moved in the 5 years 2006-2011 (ABS
Census data)
50% of 50+ survey respondents who moved in the 5 years
2006-2011 downsized to a dwelling with fewer bedrooms
9% (or 235,509) of 50+ Australians estimated to have downsized
between 2006-2011
Where did survey respondents move?
98% had lived previously in the general community
71% remained living in the general community
21% moved into retirement villages
5% moved into other seniors’ accommodation
51. Change in Dwelling Type
90.5
5.4 3.2
0.2 0.6
42.5
28.2
23.2
4.2 1.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep House Attached
Row House
Flat/
Apartment
Caravan or
Mobile Hm
Other
Percentage
Dwelling Type
Former Current(n=1269,1262)
52. Change in Number of Bedrooms
0.0 0.1
4.5
33.4
61.9
1.5
9.6
47.1
41.8
0.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bed-sit One Two Three Four+
Percentage
No of Bedrooms
Former dwelling Current dwelling(n=1214)
53. Change in Floor Area
0.6
3.5
13.1
21.6 21.4 20.5
19.5
5.8
17.6
34.6
22.8
11.9
4.3
3.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
< 50 m2 50-99 m2 100-149
m2
150-199
m2
200-249
m2
250-299
m2
300+ m2
Percentage
Floor Area
Former dwelling Current dwelling(n=894)
54. Why Did They Downsize?
(n=1212, multiple answer question)
6.9
0.9
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.4
5.8
6.8
7.5
10.1
10.1
11.9
16.4
17.2
26.6
37.9
0 10 20 30 40
Other
Locational Dissatisfaction
Employment reasons
Dwelling too big
Formed new relationship
Distance from family
Financial difficulties
Self/partner's disability
Self/partner's illness
Financial gain
Death of partner
Relationship breakdown
Retirement of self or partner
Child(ren) leaving home
Inability to maintain house/garden
Lifestyle preference
Circumstances
Percentage of respondents
55. 3.7
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.6
3.2
3.8
3.9
3.9
5.1
11.9
14.1
27.4
29.5
52.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Other
Council of the Ageing (COTA)
National Seniors Association
Other seniors' organisation(s)
Legal advisor
Popular media
Australian Government information
State Government information
Local Government information
Health/aged care professional
No one / own decision
Financial advisor
Real estate agent/website
Friends
Family
SourceofInformation
Percentage of respondents
Who Provided Advice & Assistance?
(n=868, multiple answer question)
56. 14.5
1.9
14.4
19.2
23.5
24.4
29.2
31.8
33.2
34.6
38.3
47.5
48.7
55.3
57.2
66.5
72.3
74.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Other
Larger dwelling
Discharge or reduce a mortgage
Better investment
More modern home
Closeness to aged care services
Closeness to friends
More attractive area
Reduce cost of living
Closeness to children or relatives
More accessible home
Closeness to health services
Closeness to public transport
Closeness to shops
Lifestyle improvement
Smaller dwelling
Less maintenance of the yard
Less maintenance of the home
Percentage of Respondents
Considerations
What Were They Looking For?
(important + very important)
(n=1212, multiple answer question)
57. 11.8
3.5
5.1
5.4
8.6
11.8
17.8
32.5
44.9
64.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Other
Lack of information or advice
Difficulty obtaining finance
Fees or stamp duty costs
Distance to health facilities
Distance to retail facilities
Distance from family or friends
Suitability of available locations
Cost or affordability of housing
Availability of suitable housing type
Difficulties
Percentage of respondents
What Difficulties Did They Encounter?
(difficult + very difficult)
(n=314, multiple answer question)
74% found it easy or
very easy
26% found it difficult
or fairly difficult
58. 10.1
2.9
5.8
7.2
7.2
8.7
8.7
8.7
8.7
11.6
13.0
15.9
15.9
20.3
21.7
24.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Other
Stairs
Accessibility/location/transport
Inappropriate/poor design
Lack of privacy
Crime/safety/security issues
Noise
Poor construction quality
Dislike cohort living
Strata issues
Neighbours/social issues
Unexpected costs
Affordability
Inadequate space
Building/village management issues
Building/village defects/maintenance
Reasonsfordissatisfaction
Percentage of respondents
Reasons for Dissatisfaction
(n=69 multiple answer question)
90% satisfied or very
satisfied with the
home they downsized
into
59. Barriers & Policy Options
Type Barriers Policy Options
Dwelling &
Locational
Barriers
• Difficulty finding suitable (smaller),
affordable, accessible dwellings in
suitable locations (close to retail,
transport and other services)
• Age friendly planning &
urban design controls
• Mandated accessible
housing design
Financial
Barriers
• Cost associated with moving:
• Stamp duty
• Removalists fees
• Temporary accommodation
• Estate agent’s fees
• Impact on age pension eligibility
• Housing market fluctuations
• Stamp duty exemptions/
concessions (4 states) or
replacement with land tax
• Age pension assets test
exemption (2013/14 budget
• Last home owners grants
Psychological
& Practical
Barriers
• Emotional attachment to home
and neighbourhood
• Stress of preparation for sale
• Stress of moving
• Difficulty of sorting, packing
disposing of belongings
• More effective information,
advisory & assistance
services by government &
NGO providers
• Age-specific financial
advisors & removalists
60. The Ageing City: Are We Prepared?
Housing
Progress with Access to Premises Standards and Livable
Housing Guidelines, unlikely to meet targets unless mandated
Greater Innovation in the housing industry to provide the
housing types older people will want to downsize into
Less focus on specialised housing, more on inclusive housing
Urban Planning
Planning and development controls to encourage housing types
suitable for older people close to amenities and services
National inclusive urban design guidelines
Infrastructure
Review the slow roll-out of disability standards for public
transport unlikely to keep pace with population ageing
61. Postcript: Back to the Future?
1960/70s Villa Homes in Ramsgate
Source; Google Earth, Sinclair Knight Merz/Google
62. Utzon: Kingo Houses, Elsinore, Denmark
1956-60
Source: betonbabe.tumblr.com
Source: http://metrhispanic.com
Smaller (but not too
small) dwelling
Single level
Small garden
Low maintenance
Not universal design
Source: www.flikr.com
Source: bdstudio3.blogspot.com.au
63. Utzon: Fredensborg Housing, Denmark
1963
Source: http://www.pinterest.com//
Pensioner
housing
Smaller (but
not too small)
Single level
Small Garden
Low
maintenance
Closer to uni-
versal design
Source: http:/en.wikipedia.org
Source: http://arquiscopio.com
64. References
Australian Treasury (2002) Intergenerational Report 2002-03 (Budget Paper No. 5), Canberra.
Betts, K. (2008) Population Ageing in Australia: Policy Implications of Recent Projections, People and Place, Vol. 16,
No 4, pp. 3-51
Bringolf, J. (2012) Barriers to Universal Design: Why they exist and how they might be resolved, PHD Thesis,
University of Western Sydney.
Coory, M. (2004) Ageing and Healthcare Costs in Australia: a case of policy-based evidence? Medical Journal of
Australia, Vol. 180, pp. 581-583.
Gee, E. (2002) Misconceptions and misapprehensions about population ageing, International Journal of Epidemiology,
Vol. 31, pp. 750-753.
Global Cities Indicators Facility (2013) Cities and Ageing (GCIF Policy Snapshot No 2, Toronto: University of Toronto.
Haq, G., Brown, D. & Hards, S. (2010) Older People and Climate Change: the Case for Better Engagement. Stockholm
Environment Institute, Stockholm.
Howe, A. (1992) Housing for Older Australians: Affordability, Adjustments and Care (National Housing Strategy
Background Paper No 8), Canberra.
Intergenerational Foundation (2010) About IF, Accessed 5/4/14 http://www.if.org.uk/about/about-if.
Major Cities Unit (2013) State of Australian Cities 2013, Canberra: Department of Infrastructure and Transport.
Productivity Commission (2013) An Ageing Australia: Preparing the Future (Research Paper), Canberra.
Quine, S. & Carter, S. (2006) “Australian Baby Boomers’ Expectations and Plans for Their Old Age”, Australian Journal
on Ageing, Vol. 25, No 1, pp. 3-7.
United Nations Population Fund [UNPF] and Help Age International (2012) Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: A
Celebration and Challenge. New York .
Ward, M. (2013) Inclusive Housing in Australia: A Question of Responsibility and Distributive Justice, PhD Thesis,
School of Design, Creative Industries Faculty, Brisbane: Queensland University of Technology.
Notes de l'éditeur
Question: Is this about ageing cities or ageing people?
Answer: Its really about ageing people in the city, not ageing buildings or infrastructure
So if you are expecting a talk on old buildings and infrastructure, perhaps you best leave now, and I apologise
Problem in preparing this lecture: How to make an interesting lecture about population ageing when ageing is something most of us want to avoid.
First an overview of where we are heading tonight…
I will be drawing on two AHURI funded studies that I have led recently…
I would like to recognise the contribution of my co-researchers from City Futures and beyond who are listed here.
Without them these projects would not have been possible
Before we proceed further an important question is what do we mean by older?
There are various chronological thresholds used for various purposes….
But a fair question is should it be chronologically, attitudinally, lifestyle or ability based?
Whichever of these approaches are more valid, it is important to recognise that older people are an extremely diverse group
So generalisations are dangerous
To illustrate my point, these two people are my parents – now 94 years of age, still living independently without assistance, still involved in the community, my father still plays golf three times a week. They are undoubtedly the exception, and there are people 20 or 30 years younger who may not be able to do what they do.
Nowdays we see ageing differently than before.
In the post war period there has been some major shifts in gerontological theory that have impacted on how we regard ageing.
We have moved on from regarding ageing as a purely biological phenomenon to theories that incorporate psychological and social perspectives.
We have moved beyond the early disengagement theory (which focussed on the progressive disengagement of older people from society) to activity theory and successful ageing which posit that remaining active and taking on new roles can maintain morale and wellbeing in older age.
Ecological theories of ageing have emphasised the importance of the social and physical environment in the ageing process
And we also have political economy, feminist and critical theories of ageing that deal with power relationships, gender inequality, and the impact of globalisation on the lives of older people
These changes have also flowed into policy on ageing which now emphasises……
Ageing is an international phenomenon
This graph based on UN data shows 2010 proportions of the population 65 and projected growth over 50 years to 2060
In terms of 2010 data you can see that Australia sits in the lower third (around 14%) expected to increase to just under 25% by 2060
This is comparable with the USA, a little less than the UK and most of Europe which is around 16-17%, and a lot less that the world leader Japan at around 24%
However in terms of overall growth in population ageing by 2060 we are close to the bottom – still under 25% but a little above where Japan is at present
When you look at the 85 and over population, we move a bit further up the list for 2060 projections, but are still in the bottom third.
You can see that the growth in 85 and over is much more substantial than in the 65+ age group in all countries.
Australia’s 85+ triples in 50 years, whereas Japan’s more than quadruples
It is this that causes much concern about the social and economic impact of population ageing
And it has implications for housing, urban planning and infrastructure
It is interesting to look at global ageing spatially
This map from the United Nations Population Fund
It shows population growth of people 60 and over between 2012 and 2050 (a 38 year period)
So a slightly different age and time frame than the previous graphs
It shows the dramatic ageing over this period in the northern hemisphere
Particularly Canada, Europe, Russia and China
Australia is also projected here to have at least a quarter of its population 60 and over by 2050, along with the USA, Brazil and Argentina
Population ageing is not just a global problem, it is also an urban problem
The Global Cities Indicators Facility at the University of Toronto has just put out their ‘Global Policy Snapshot’ for 2013
These figures come from their report entitled ‘Cities and Ageing’…..
The key contributing factors to population ageing are well known
Low fertility – associated with birth control, female education and participation in the workforce
Low death rates due to advances in medical science and health education
But an important contributing factor at present is the baby boom generation (born 1946-1964) coming in to older age
This accelerates population ageing somewhat from 2011 for twenty years or so.
And the baby boomers are a different kettle of fish from previous generations
I know because I am one of them – born in 1946, on the crest of the wave as it were. And so are many of you!
We are coming into older age with some very different attitudes and values than previous generations
Quine & Carter undertook an extensive literature review in 2006 and came up with likely characteristics, some of which we baby boomers should not be all that proud of
You can see from this list that they are more likely than previous generations to be age-deniers, self focused, demanding, sceptical, individualistic and more active in retirement
If you are a baby boomer, I suspect you could tick some, of those boxes!
These traits have implications for how we relate to the built environment
In terms of what this means for housing:
More likely to live independently
To be active in retirement
To not want to live in retirement villages with their peers
But to maintain their existing social networks
And require housing that is modified, with specialised assistive technology and live in age-friendly neighbourhoods
Baby boomers are known for their high consumption, and so its not surprising that in the UK they have the highest carbon foot print of any age cohort
Ironically, as they age they will become one of the most vulnerable groups to the impacts of climate change
So what does population ageing in Australia look like over the remainder of this century?
This graph shows growth in the projected growth in the percentage of the 65+ and 85+population in Australia between 2012 and 2100
We can see that the % of those 65+ rises from 14.2% to 23.4% mid century (63% growth), and then on to nearly 30% (or 104% growth) by the end of the century
And 85+ more than doubles from 2.1 to 5.1% by mid century and then to a whopping 9.3% by 2100
If we took it from the census years 2001 to 2051 the % of 65+ is expected to almost double, and 85+ to quadruple
So 85+ is increasing at roughly twice the rate for 65+
This has important social and economic implications
But what about our cities, how do they measure up in terms of population ageing?
This graph from the last Major Cities Unit report looks at differences in population ageing amongst Australian capital cities
This time (just to confuse you) from 2008-2056 (a little under 50 years)
The dark blue bar represents 2008, the orange and light blue high and low projections respectively
Australia is at the top around 13% in 2008 rising to the low to mid 20s by 2056
Unsurprisingly, the next two Adelaide and Hobart are the oldest and are expected to continue to be so
Darwin (at the bottom) stands out as the youngest, and is expected to remain so
In 2008 Sydney, Perth and Melbourne were quite similar, and Brisbane a little younger
Canberra is younger in 2008, but catches up in the 2056 projections
The basic message is that in the worst case scenario the aged population 65+ of many Australian cities could close to double
The implications of this for housing and urban environments is recognised in the report (READ QUOTE)
One of the major concerns of government about population ageing hinges on what is called the dependency ratio
This is the proportion of working age people to those 65 and over
As you can see in this Productivity Commission graph, this has been reducing dramatically in the last four decades or so
The increased health and aged care needs will have to be paid for by a dwindling number of taxpayers
In 2010 there were 5 tax payers for each person 65 and over, by mid century in is likely to be nearly half that
This is something of a concern for policy makers
It also has economic consequences
It was something of a wake-up call for the government when former Liberal Treasurer Peter Costello commissioned the first Intergenerational Report as part of the 2002-03 budget papers
They plotted the graph you can see here which represents the ratio of government revenue to expenditure
It shows that without any changes to policy settings the budget would go into deficit by 2015 and blow out to 5% of GDP by 2041-42
They calculated that this would require an additional $87 billion in taxes.
Now they did not anticipate the Global Financial Crisis, the Economic Stimulus Package or the Mining Boom, so this did not turn out to be accurate
But never the less it did sharpen the attention of the Government on addressing population ageing
Of course this has brought the alarmists and doomsday purveyors out of the woodwork
The term ‘silver tsunami’ was coined and has been used regularly in the popular press – particularly in the UK.
There have been dire predictions from politicians and in the popular press about the possible consequences
Fears of ‘intergenerational warfare’, ‘social and political upheaval’, ‘fiscal crisis’ and even ‘military aggression’ have been touted
Giving inspiration to the ever opportunistic cartoonists
The guy on the beach looks uncannily like Premier Barry O’Farrell
An example of this comes from the Washington Post in 2009
Notice the emotive language:
Hyperaging (we had hyperdensity at the last Utzon lecture)
Fiscal crisis
Ugly political battles
Demographic storms
Overwhelming age waves
Explosions of youth
Social and political upheaval
Military agression
Beautifully captured somewhat tongue in cheek in this cartoon by Shem Cohen
Of course while such alarmism is exaggerated and unwarranted, there are legitimate concerns about generational inequities arising from the reducing dependency ratio
Just who are the biggest losers? The older, or the younger generations?
These are important policy questions
Organisations such as the London-based Intergenerational Foundation have emhasised the likelihood of an “increasingly heavy burden on younger future generations” who are seen as “losing out disproportionately to older, wealthier cohorts.”
Again the cartoonists capture these fears cleverly.
However, other more moderate, and better informed, voices counter the extremes of the alarmists
Michael Coory – Medical Epidemiologist, Queensland Health writes in the Medical Journal of Australia that “population ageing will only have a limited effect on healthcare costs” and that “there is no evidence that population ageing will cause chaos for our health system.”
Likewise the late Ellen Gee, Professor Department Chair of Sociology and Anthropology at Simon Fraser University in Canada wrote the International Journal of Medical Epidemiology that the “expectation of unsustainable costs” was “highly unlikely” and that “population ageing is not particularly influential for future public health costs.”
Katherine Betts, recently retired Sociologist and population growth researcher from Swinburne University makes the point that “the only way to return to the youthful age structure of the past is by having large families and dying young.” Both things we don’t want to do.
So we just have to get on with it, accept that population ageing is here and adjust to it.
So the government has got on with it in various ways including:
The superannuation guarantee
Tax exemptions for self-funded retirees
Increasing the employer contributions to superannuation from 9 to 12%
Gradually increasing the pension age from the current 65 to 67 between 2017 and 2023
The $5,000 baby bonus (which seems to have worked) to offset population ageing
The recent ‘Housing Help for Seniors Pilot Scheme’ which quarantines $200,000 of the proceeds of sale to assist in moving/downsizing
Four state Governments have introduced concessions or exemptions from stamp duty for older people moving (NSW terminated theirs)
On the social policy front a major strategy has been to encourage and support ageing in place through:
Promoting independence and active/healthy ageing
Increasing levels of community care
This table outlines increases in community care options to support ageing in place over the last 30 years
Starting with the Home and Community Care program in 1985 to provide assistance to older people in the home, and home modifications
To more intensive care for people with high care needs via Community Options Projects
To Community Aged Care Packages with tailored aged care in the home specifically for older people – with capped fees
To EACH and EACH-D programs introduced in the late 80s for frail aged people and those with dementia
And the recent Living Longer Living Better Reforms which have folded those previous schemes into a suite of Home Care Packages with four levels of care with two levels of community care and low and high residential care
What are the implications of population ageing and these social and economic policy shifts for the built environment
Ageing in place is very well but in what kind of place?
In the family home? If so how suitable is the existing housing stock for ageing in place?
If not, then there are only two choices – modify, or move.
If moving, what to?
What kind of housing types?
What sizes of dwellings?
How many storeys?
How accessible?
How easy to maintain?
But it’s not just about the dwelling. Its one thing to have an appropriate dwelling, another to be able to participate in the community
Provision and convenience of access to services
Housing options in relation to services and transport
Age-friendly neighbourhood design and transport infrastructure
The major international policy initiative is the World Health Organisations Age Friendly Cities (later renamed Age Friendly Environments) established in 2007 in the wake of a large international conference on ageing
They published guidelines on what constitutes an age-friendly city and invited cities to join an the Age Friendly Cities Network. To qualify you had to commit to adopting the principles in the Age Friendly Cities guide
These principles were articulated under the 8 themes listed.
33 cities initially joined the network, but only 2 from Australia – Melbourne and Melville in suburban Perth.
However this document has inspired many of the local government ageing projects in Australia.
So what policy developments have taken place in Australia in regard to age-friendly housing, planning and infrastructure?
Well quite a bit over the years
I won’t expect you to read all of these but you can see a steady build up from Anna Howe’s contribution to the National Housing Strategy in the early 1990s to........
More recently we have had the….
National Dialouge on Unversal Design – convened by the then Parliamentary Secretary for Disability and Children’s services (now opposition leader) Bill Shorten,
He gathered a group of stakeholders together from various government, industry and peak bodies who came up with a Strategic Plan for implementation of universal housing design aspiring to 100% compliance by 2020.
In 2011 Livable Housing Australia was established to implement the plan – who in 2012 released their Livable Housing Design Guidelines – a voluntary standard for universal design with three levels of performance/accreditation – Silver, Gold and Platinum, progressively stepping up the requirements
In the meantime (in 2010) the Access to Premises Standards had been extended to housing for the first time – to class 2 (apartment buildings), a small step for man, but not a large step for mankind. It provides access to one level of sole occupancy units.
Finally in 2013 – the Human Rights Commission
There have also been state government initiatives
I will focus here on NSW – with one example from Western Australia
SEPP 5 and its successors SEPP (Seniors living) and SEPP (Housing for Seniors or People with Disabilities)
The companion Seniors Living Policy Urban Design Guidelines for Infill Development to the 2004 SEPP amendments
Landcom’s (now Urban Growth NSW) 2007 Universal Housing Guidelines and Built Form Guidelines which includes a section on Planning for All Ages
And most recently the NSW Ageing Strategy, a whole of government approach to be delivered in partnership with the private sector with a commitment to creating age-friendly local communities, improving housing choice, monitoring supply and financial assistance for older people moving to more appropriate accommodation.
Then there are some important peak body initiatives…..
So lets look at the households and housing of older Australians
The following graphs are for 65+ at the 2011 Census
Note 2:1 ratio of 2 to single person households for 65+
84% of 65+ either 1 or 2 people
87% of 85+ either 1 or 2 people
65+ Mostly in separate houses
Half of 85+ remain in separate houses
Similar proportions in attached and apartment housing
Increase in non-private dwellings for 85+
Close to half of both in 3 bedroom
85+ higher in 2 bedroom (possibly retirement villages)
Two thirds of 65+ are outright owners
Three quarters (76%) of 65+ home owners
Still nearly half of 85+ outright owners
Slightly over half (52%) of 85+ home owners
Rental very low
The propensity of older 1 or 2 person households living in larger detached dwellings has led to the view that older people underutilise their dwellings
This has been referred to as the mismatch argument – ie that there is a mismatch between older households and their housing
It is argued that this represents an inefficient use of the housing stock
It implies that older people should be encouraged to move to smaller dwellings thus releasing their larger dwellings into the market for younger, larger families – thus improving the efficient use of the housing stock
In Australia there is an official measure of housing occupancy, a modified version of the Canadian National Occupancy Standard
It is basically a formula that equates no of people to number of bedrooms, with some nuancing around the ages and gender of children
Aim of the study: to understand how older home owners regarded and utilised their housing, land and neighbourhood. And to seek their views on more efficient alternatives
One reason is temporary residents
Another reason is alternative uses of bedrooms
Even additional living rooms (family rooms and rumpus rooms) were used for alternative purposes
Surplus space in garages was also used for other purposes
WE also looked at how older homeowners utilised their neighbourhood
Note: Dark bars daily-weekly, light bars monthly-yearly
Most common daily/weekly activities are….
Most common monthly/yearly activities are medical appointments, cultural activities and dining out (more than 50%)
So we know from this how people use their neighbourhood and with what frequency
In the interviews we asked them about barriers to participating in their neighbourhood
This is what they identified…..
This is not to say that all suburbs or regional towns have not done well
Some towns, like Gunnedah, have put a lot of effort into creating town centres that are age-friendly
But others (that shall remain nameless) certainly have not
This unnamed town had many access problems for older people including:
Poor quality and discontinuous paths of travel
Public buildings with step access and no ramp alternatives
In summary
This led naturally to our second study of downsizing
If the evidence is that most older people stay put, what about those who do move and/or downsize
Questions…..
An analysis of Census Data revealed that 18% of Australians 50+ had moved in the 5 years between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses
Our survey revealed that 50% of respondents who had moved during this same period, had actually downsized, and the other 50% had moved without downsizing
Applying the same proportion to the Australian population who had moved would mean that only 9% of the total population 50 and over had downsized.
What did they move into?.....
Here’s what housing types they moved into
The dark bar represents their housing before the last moved
The light bars what they moved into
A fairly dramatic drop in separate houses, and a corresponding increase in attached housing and apartment living
Some of this would be in retirement villages
You can see here the change in number of bedrooms
Mostly 4+ before
Completely absent after – with the biggest increase in 2 bedrooms, but also an increase in 3 bedrooms
This indicates that many older people are choosing houses that are smaller, but not too small.
We asked them to estimate the floor area in their dwelling as well
You can see that the floor areas follow a very similar pattern
So what were the circumstances that led to them downsizing?
Lifestyle preference the most common motivation
Move to a lifestyle location (eg coastal)
Move to accommodation that makes it easier to travel (eg. Apartment, manufactured home estate, mobile home)
Less maintenance to free up time for other activities
Maintenance also important
Demographic and other shocks also feature in the reasons of many (light grey bars). Children leaving home and negative
Financial difficulties fairly low down the order – financial gain higher (orange bars)
This suggests that relocating in later life for older home owners is primarily lifestyle and maintenance driven
We asked them where they got advice and assistance from in the downsizing process
This was mostly from family, friends and real estate agents
When asked what the main considerations were in looking for their new home:
The highest priorities were less maintenance, dwelling size and lifestyle improvement
Location was also important (see the light bars) particularly proximity to shops, public transport and health services
But also proximity to family and friends
Surprisingly economic matters were fairly low down the order of priorities (Orange bars)
In the survey we asked them how difficult they found the process
Close to three quarters had found it easy or very easy
And a quarter had found it either difficult or very difficult
This graph shows the difficulties they encountered
This gives us some clues as to what some of the barriers to downsizing might be
Three stand out as the most important – availability, affordability and locatonal suitability (dark bars)
Following these are other locational difficulties (light bars)
Again financial difficulties were a problem for only a few
Finally, in the survey we asked them how satisfied they were with the dwelling they had moved into.
90% were either satisfied or very satisfied, leaving only 10% dissatisfied or very dissatisfied
When we asked those who were dissatisfied why, the reasons hinged largely around building defects and management issues, obviously associated with managed housing options such as strata title units and retirement villages
However affordability was also a problem for many, along with unexpected costs including monthly fees in strata developments and
For this project we also ran three policy forums in NSW, Victoria and South Australia
These included representatives from government, peak bodies, community organisations and the housing industry
One of the things we asked them to do was to identify the barriers and policy options that might help to overcome these
Their perceptions are summarised on this table
Three main types of barriers… explain
On the housing front there has been some welcome progress with the introduction of the Access to Premises standards for apartment buildings.
While the work of the National Dialogue on Universal Housing Design and Livable Housing Australia in developing the Livable Housing Guidelines is to be applauded, it is unlikely that their target of 100% of new housing at silver level will be met by 2020, unless mandated as part of the Building Code of Australia.
We need more innovation from the housing industry in developing housing types that will be attractive for older people to want to downsize into. Its not just about accessibility, but about size and configuration of the housing, and the ability to have a small garden
There needs to be less emphasis on cohort living and more on housing for all ages in the general community. This will be increasingly important as the baby boomer generation ages
On the planning and urban design front:
We need planning and development controls that encourage housing types suitable for older people closte to amenties and services
While there has been some very good initiatives at local government level, these are inconsistent and fragmented. There is a need for national urban design standards that are inclusive of the needs of older people. This will be important if we are to develop the kind of neighourhoods suitable for an ageing population. We don’t need yet another set of specialised urban design guidelines but ‘good design’ guidelines that are inclusive of the needs of an ageing population.
And finally regarding infrastructure
Despite the introduction of the Disability Standards for Public Transport, there are still many transport facilities that are not age friendly. The slow roll out over 30 years is unlikely to keep pace with population ageing and reqwuires a review to accellerate the time frames.
As a postcript, in the 1960s in Rockdale and Kogarah an interesting housing type developed, known as Villa homes. These were small groups of single storey dwellings (typicially 5 or 6) on a redeveloped suburban allotment. The aerial photo from Google Earch shows an example of these – some on double allotments.
I studied these when I did my PhD and discovered that they were ideal for older people to downsize into.
They were smaller but not too small, single level, with a small garden.
They were affordable because they were permitted in low density residential zones, using convenional cottage construction.
They were not very well designed and not accessible, but di d work well for many older people at the time.
I wonder if they might represent a model that could be useful today – albeit with better quality and universal design.
Jorn Utzon, after whom this lecture series is named is famous for two housing developments with similar characteristics, though very well designed.
The Kingo Houses in Elsinore, Denmark
Describe….
The second and slightly later Utzon example is the Fredensborg Housing.
This was undertaken for a company that wished to provide housing for retired international workers
Interestingly this project was designed at a very similar time as the earlier examples of Villa Homes were being constructed in Rockdale and Kogarah
Perhaps these two superb examples could inspire greater innovation in the provision of housing and neighbourhoods for an ageing population in Australia