Urban Futures for Architects - presented to Introduction to Architecture class at University of Kansas School of Architecture 22 Sep 2011. Topics covered: 1 How Do You Think About the Future? an overview of futures thinking, the change process 2 Big Urban Futures. demography, limited resources affecting 21st c cities 3 Architecture, Language and You. Places you can see the future today

1. urban futures A presentation by Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse Frewen Architects and University of Houston Futures Studies For University of Kansas Introduction to Architecture 02011

2. space time language http://twitter.com/urbanversehttp://urbanverse.posterous.com @urbanverse Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA

3. 3 housing & schools public projects master planning

5. cities buildings movables wearables

6. cities buildings movables wearables language

7. Urban Futures Perspective Thinking About the Future? Big Urban Futures Architecture, Language + You

8. I. How do you …. Think about the future?

9. The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Alan Kay (modeled Macintosh & Windows)

10. 4 Types of Change

11. S-Curve The Real Problem of Change S-Curve Peter Bishop, 2003

13. Herbert Spencer – Technology & Progress Future Society, altruistic Industrial Society Militant Society Barbarism Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997

14. IDEA Late Culture Mass civilization Pre-culture Birth Death Time Oswald Spengler – Growth and Decline IDEA Late culture Mass culture Pre-Culture Death Birth TIME Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997

15. The “Upside of Down” Prophecy Source: O. Markley, “A New Intelligence Methodology for Anticipating Disruptive Surprises” (2010) 15

16. RianeEisler – Domination/Partnership Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997

17. Every day futures… How to apply futures thinking

18. Applied Futures Work Forecasting Describing the future With systems, cycles, trends, scenarios Planning Visions = Preferred Futures Influencing, strategies

19. 3 Types of Futures Thinking Futures Forces Thinking Techniques ProbableConstants Definite Historical Trends Extrapolation PlausibleDiscontinuities Imaginative Scenarios Surprises Preferable Choices Visionary Visioning Images Planning From Peter Bishop, 2003

20. Futures Methods Scanning Research, STEEP Forecasting Systems, Trends, Scenarios Visioning Preferred Vision, Goals Planning Mission, Strategy Acting Initiatives, Results

21. Economic Environmental Technological Immediate Environment Social Political STEEPEnvironmental Scan You

22. Causal Layered Analysis Time Scale of Change Problem Continuous Litany, Descriptions Causes Years Systems Analysis Worldview Decades Discourse Analysis Metaphors, Myths, Images Generations Inayatullah, 2004

23. II. Big Urban Futures What do you think might happen?

24. Cities and people 3 Billion More People

25. Population Forecasts for Selected Countries 2010 - 2100 Nigeria India U.S. You China

26. US Population to 2050 550m 410m You 320m

27. Population Over Age 60 2005 - 2045 You @60 You

28. Megacities 1959 – 2000 - 2015 You

29. Urbanization 1950 – 2007 - 2030 You

30. Urban – Rural 1950 - 2030 You

31. Planet resources Limits to growth

32. World Oil Production 2002- 2012 You

33. Areas with High Water Stress You

34. Areas with Degraded and Very Degraded Soil

35. Africa’s High Risk Areas for Climate Change

36. What happens? Prices are going up…

37. What kind of cities?? Choices or business as usual?

38. How much land do we need to live like….. Paris S.F. Paris N.Y. London Singapore Houston

39. US home size doubled in 50 years 2000: 2,200sf 1970: 1,500sf 1950: 1,000sf

41. III. Architecture, Language + You What kinds of cities will you make?

42. Ways to think about urban futures … Language Social Co-creating Steady state diplomacy

43. 1. Architecture and language The city as language

44. 44 Mythic Cities Utopia High Tech Fortress Gaia

45. 45 metaphoric cities garden family bird machine

46. Omega Center for Sustainable Living Rhinebeck NY BNIM Architects Living Cities

47. Beauty with meaning Seed Cathedral Shanghai World Expo UK Pavilion Thomas Heatherwick, architect

48. People first Oakland CA Existing Street

49. From Dead Zones To Lovable Oakland CA w/ infill, trees, transit, bike lanes

50. 2. The Social City IRL, virtual, and you

51. A Entry Points The Conversation Prism Brian Solis + JESS

52. Mobile Phone Users 2000 - 2010 From 1 billion to 5 billion users in a decade

53. Social networks; peer to peer Digital Added to Real World New Fantasy Worlds Representations of reality; maps Second Life Metaverse Roadmap modified

54. Layar – on android cell phone

55. New York Phantom City Tour Phantomcity.org

56. Heads Up display wearable lenses Vernor Vinge Rainbows End

57. Heads Up Display

58. Times Square NYC Networked Omniscient Exhibit You’ll know the social city far differently.

59. 3. Co-Creating the City Hacking the City

60. Guerrilla art underground The Underbelly Project Abandoned Subway New York City

61. Guerilla art hillside Women, Morro de Providencia Rio de Janeiro, JR Artist

62. Guerilla gardening

63. D DIY Cities Germany electrical box bench

64. Making cities, not just looking Sydney Opera House JornUtzon Architect

65. 4. Steady State Cities How do we measure progress?

66. Data-driven choices Baltimore, CitiStats

67. Most Livable Vienna, Austria - Mercer

68. Greenest Cities Portland Oregon

69. Well-being

70. Walkability Mapping Walk Scores . . . . Seattle

71. Affecting Where We Live Zillow

72. 5. Urban Diplomacy Coming together

73. Resolving wicked problems Los Angeles ….. 17 million people, 200 municipalities, 5 counties, 5 watersheds share geography, water, air, nature, transportation, public resources, economy, culture and identity.

74. Who Owns the Water?

75. Who Owns the Skyline?

76. Who Owns the Sidewalk?

77. Who Decides Transportation Options? Copenhagen Bike Highway Sharing the city, not just consuming. How do we live together, diversity in harmony?

78. Urban Futures What futures will you make? What stories will your city tell future gens?

79. Thank you! DrCindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse FrewenArchitects and University of Houston Futures Studies http://twitter.com/urbanversehttp://urbanverse.posterous.com