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WHAT IS CORPORATE FINANCE
The division of a company that is concerned with
 the financial operation of the company. In
 most businesses, corporate finance focuses on
 raising money for various projects or ventures.
For investment banks and similar corporations,
 corporate finance focuses on the analysis of
 corporate acquisitions and other decisions
This is basically about money OBJECTIVES


                       SAN LIO                      1
The primary goal of corporate finance is to
 Maximize corporate value while managing the
 firm’s financial risks




                    SAN LIO                    2
ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Primary goal of financial management is to
  maximize the stock price, not accounting
  measures such as the bottom line or EPS.
Evaluation of accounting statements helps
  management appreciate the company’s
  performance trends, as well as to forecast where
  the company is going
The primary financial statements include:
 The statement of financial position
 The income statement

                        SAN LIO                      3
 The statement of retained earnings or called
  statement of changes in equity
 The cash flow statement
OTHERS ARE
 Notes to the financial statements
 Accounting policies
 Statement of financial position-retrospective
  restatement
Ratios analysis-important

                        SAN LIO                   4
RATIOS
Solvency and financial strength
Profitability ratios
Earning value ratios (share value)
Efficiency ratios
Gearing/leverage ratios




                      SAN LIO         5
CONSIDER THESE OBJECTIVES OF FM
Provide support for decision making
Ensure the availability of timely, relevant and
 reliable financial and non-financial information
Manage risks
Use resources efficiently, effectively and
 economically
Strengthen accountability
Provide a supportive control environment
Comply with authorities and safeguard assets

                        SAN LIO                     6
FINANCIAL PLANNING AND
            FORECASTING
What is a plan?-explain this to the students
What is a forecast- explain this to the students
The optimal forecast becomes the budget




                       SAN LIO                  7
CAPITAL BUDGETING TECHNIQUES
 Defined- This is the process of evaluating specific
  investment decisions.
 Capital investment decisions are important because:
 They involve huge sums of money
 Hard to discover alternative economic use
 Difficult to get out of the project once funds are
  committed
 Aim is to increase owners wealth and thus Control
 Capital used to mean operating assets used in
  production

                          SAN LIO                       8
Budget is a plan (activities) that details
 projected cash flows during some future
 period.
Thus capital budget is an outline of planned
 investments in operating assets while capital
 budgeting is the whole process of analysing
 projects and identifying the ones to include in
 the budget accordingly and these the ones
 that add to firm’s value

                      SAN LIO                  9
PROJECT CLASSIFICATION
 KEY Categories which firms analyse include:
 Replacement: MAINTENANCE OF BUSINESS-worn-out
  or damaged equipments –depends on whether to
  continue the business or go into new ventures- no
  need of elaborate decision process
 Replacement: COST REDUCTION- detailed analysis
 Expansion of existing products or markets- higher level
  decisions within the firm
 Expansion into new products or markets- boards
  decision as a part of firm’s strategic plan

                           SAN LIO                      10
Safety and/or environment projects-
 mandatory investments to comply with
 specific industry requirements
Research and development- may use decision
 tree analysis rather than DCF techniques
Long-term contracts- to provide products or
 services to specific customers- DCF analysis
 necessary

                     SAN LIO                    11
CAPITAL BUDGETING DECISION RULES
There are seven key methods namely
Payback
Discounted payback
Accounting rate of return
Net present value (NVP)
Internal rate of return ( IRR)
Modified internal rate of return (MIRR)
Profitability index

                      SAN LIO              12
PAYBACK PERIOD
Expected number of years required to cover the
  original investment
Payback = year before full recovery +
unrecovered cost at start of year
Cash flow during the year
EXAMPLE
Take two projects X and Y
X= -1000 Y1 500 Y2 400, Y3 300 Y4 100
Y=-1000 Y1 100 Y2 300 Y3 400 Y4 600
                      SAN LIO                     13
EXAMPLE CONT
Required: find payback period and advise which
  project should be undertaken if both projects are
  mutually exclusive
SOLUTION
X= 2 + 100/300 = 2.33
Y= 3+ 200/600= 3.33
CONCLUSION
 X has the shortest pay back period thus accepted
  accordingly.

                        SAN LIO                   14
DISCOUNTED PAYBACK
Here the expected cash flows are discounted
  by the project’s cost of capital
Discounted payback period defined as the
  number of years required to recover the
  investment from discounted net cash flows
EXAMPLE OF OUR PROJECTS X AND Y
Discounting the cash inflows for both projects
  assuming a cost of capital of 10%
Use tables accordingly
                      SAN LIO                 15
EXAMPLE CONT
Project X = 2 + 214/225= 2.95 years
Project Y = 3 + 360/410= 3.88 years
Project X is preferred accordingly
Period      discounting factor at 10%
1                             .9091
2                             .8264
3                             .7513
4                             .6830
5                             .6209

                       SAN LIO          16
PROJECT X
 YEAR    CASH FLOW DIS FAC PV        BAL
    0       -1000         1     -1000 -1000
    1         500         .9091 455       -545
    2        4OO         .8264 331        -214
    3        300         .7513    225        11
    4        100          .6830    68       79

THUS: 2 + 214/225 = 2.95



                           SAN LIO                17
PROJECT Y
 Pay back 3 + 360/410 = 3.88

ADVANTAGES OF PAYBACK METHOD
Easy to understand and calculate
Provides some assessment of risk
 in a business environment of rapid technological
  changes, new plant and machinery may need to
  be replaced sooner than in the past, so a quick
  payback on investment is essential

                       SAN LIO                   18
The investment climate today in particular,
 demands that investors are rewarded with fast
 returns. Many profitable opportunities for
 long-term investment are overlooked because
 they involve a longer wait for revenues to flow




                      SAN LIO                  19
DISADVANTAGES
Ignores cash flows after the payback period. Cash
 flows are regarded as either pre-payback or post-
 payback, but the latter tend to be ignored.
Does not measure profitability. Payback takes no
 account of the effect on business profitability. Its
 sole concern is cash flow
Ignores time value of money
It lacks objectivity. Who decides the length of
 optimal payback time? No one does - it is decided
 by pitting one investment opportunity against
 another.
                        SAN LIO                     20
NB/It is probably best to regard payback as
 one of the first methods you use to assess
 competing projects. It could be used as an
 initial screening tool, but it is inappropriate as
 a basis for sophisticated investment decisions




                        SAN LIO                   21
ACCOUNTING RATE OF RETURN (ARR)
Focuses on a project’s net income and not its
  cash flow
Is the ratio of the project’s average annual
  expected net income to its average investment
Formula
ARR = Average annual income * 100
         Average investment
EXAMPLE
Lets Assume the case of our TWO projects X and Y

                       SAN LIO                     22
PROJECT X
Lets further assume that both projects will be
  depreciated using the straight line method- in
  their useful economic life of FOUR years and
  have a scrap value of zero
The depreciation expense = 1000/4= 250 per
  year
AVERAGE ANNUAL INCOME= Average cash
  flow- Average annual depreciation
Thus: (500+400+300+100)/4=325-250=75
                      SAN LIO                  23
AVERAGE INVESTMENT =Cost + Scrap Value
                                      2
THUS: 1000 + 0/2 = 500
THUS
ARR = 75/500*100= 15%
Lets determine ARR for Project Y- EVERY BODY



                     SAN LIO                24
PROJECT Y
1,400/4= 350-250= 100
1000+0/2= 500
THUS
ARR = 100/500*100= 20%
CONCLUSION
The ARR method ranks project Y over project X.
If the firm accepts projects with say 18%, Then
  accordingly, project Y will be accepted and
  project X rejected.

                        SAN LIO                    25
ADVANTAGES OF ARR
Easy to understand and calculate
Managers familiar with the key concepts
Brings into consideration the income earned over
 the whole life of project
The idea of return on capital employed is
 generally understood and this aids the
 comprehension of the accounting rate of return
The minimum required rate of return can be set
 with reference to the cost of the finance used by
 the company plus the additional return it requires
 for its own profit.
                       SAN LIO                    26
DISADVANTAGES OF ARR
Ignores the time value of money
The timing of income arising from alternative
 projects is ignored




                      SAN LIO                    27
WHATS MORE ?
We note that the rankings under the ARR
 method are exactly the opposite of the ones
 based on the Payback method
What's the problem here?
This is an argument we can have right here!
Is it worth?
Probably NO- Because these two method
 ignore a very fundamental issue- THE TIME
 VALUE of money.
                     SAN LIO                   28
CONCLUSION ON THE TWO METHODS
They both do not give us complete
 information on the projects contribution to
 the firm’s intrinsic value.
DCF-Discounted Cash Flow techniques are
 therefore reliable because they address this
 problem



                      SAN LIO                   29
NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV)
Present value (PV) is an accounting term that
 measures how money needs to be invested today
 in order to finance business initiatives, projects,
 and obligations tomorrow
In order to determine the present value of future
 costs, accountants use formulas based on the
 time value of money. These formulas feature
 variables such as the length of time involved and
 the prevailing interest rate and/or inflationary
 rates

                        SAN LIO                    30
In other words, the present value of an amount
 to be received in the future is the discounted face
 value considering the length of time
 the receipt is deferred and the required rate of
 return (or appropriate discount rate under the
 circumstances)
Present value is the result of the time value of
 money concept, which works in recognition that
 today's Shilling is worth more than the same
 Shilling received at a future point in time.

                        SAN LIO                    31
NPV PROCEDURE
Find the present value of each cash flow,
 including all inflows and outflows, discounted at
 the project’s cost of capital
Sum these discounted cash flows; this particular
 sum is called the project’s NVP
If the NPV is positive, the project is accepted but
 rejected if the NPV is negative
If two projects with positive NPV are mutually
 exclusive, the one with the higher NPV is selected
                        SAN LIO                    32
THE FORMULA




    SAN LIO   33
The formula (We know it!)
WHERE
 CFt= the expected net cash flow at period t
 r= the projects cost of capital
 n= the projects life
 CF0= a negative number being the cash outflows
NOTE
We can also use the tables of discounted factors
  accordingly
                       SAN LIO                      34
EXAMPLES
Lets compute NPV Of both our projects X and
 Y




                     SAN LIO                   35
NPV RATIONALE
A NPV of zero signifies that the project’s cash
 flows are exactly sufficient to repay the invested
 capital and provide the required rate of return on
 that capital.
A positive NPV means the project is generating
 more cash than needed to service the debt and
 to provide the required return to shareholders;
 and that this excess cash accrues solely to the
 entities stockholders
Positive NPV means the wealth of the
 stockholders increases

                        SAN LIO                   36
We may at this stage compare our two projects, X
 and Y, and see by how much each of them
 increases the shareholders wealth.
NOTE: there is a direct relationship between NPV
 and EVA (Economic Value Added- which is the
 estimate of a business’s true economic profit for
 the year- and represents the residual income that
 remains after the cost of all capital, including
 equity capital. Quite different from accounting
 profit which does not include a charge for equity
 capital)

                       SAN LIO                   37
NPV is equal to the present value of the project’s
 future EVAs.
Thus accepting a project with positive NPV results
 in a positive EVA and a positive MVA (Market
 Value Added- being the excess of a firm’s market
 value over its book value).
Since entities should in fact reward managers for
 producing positive EVA-MVA; then NPV becomes
 a better method for making capital budgeting
 decisions accordingly.
                        SAN LIO                   38
ACCOUNTING OR ECONOMIC PROFIT
Economic profit = (explicit and implicit
 revenue) Minus (explicit and implicit cost)
Accounting Profit = TR (Total Revenue= Price
 * Quantity) - (Cost of land) - (cost of labor) –
 (cost of capital)
Economic profit = accounting profit – cost of
 equity capital


                       SAN LIO                      39
ADVANTAGES OF NPV
Links capital budgeting decisions to EVA-MVA
Recognizes the time value of money
Correct ranking of mutually exclusive projects
Dependent on forecast cash flows and
 opportunity cost of capital, instead of
 arbitrary guess work by management
No arbitrary guess work


                      SAN LIO                     40
DISADVANTAGES
Possible errors in forecasting
Hard to determine the minimum rate of
 return of a project
Other factors which may affect a project’s
 structure of cash flows e.g. government
 grants, taxation etc



                      SAN LIO                 41
THE INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN
Defined as the discount rate that equates the
  present value of a project’s expected cash inflows
  to the present value of the project’s costs.
This means:
PV (Inflows) = PV (Investment costs)
Further, this means IRR is simply the rate of
  return that forces the NPV to equal to Zero
Formula : CF0 + CFI + CF2 + CFn               =0
            (1+irr)0 (1+irr)1 (1+irr)2 (1+irr)n
Can use the calculator to solve the equation

                        SAN LIO                    42
ALTERNATIVE FORMULAR TO IRR
IRR = X + x     *   (Y-X)
               x+y

Where
 X = Discount rate for positive NPV
 Y= Discount rate for negative NPV
 x= positive NPV found using X
 y= negative NPV found using Y
 Ignore negative signs

                         SAN LIO       43
EXAMPLE-OUR PROJECT X AND Y
NOTE- this is a trial and error process-
 whereby a higher rate of return (than the
 provided cost of capital) is used- until the
 result is a negative NPV
Lets use 18% as cost of capital
Discount factors are: YEAR1 .8475, Y2.7182,
 Y3.6086,Y4.5158,Y5.4371
Then solve IRR for both projects.
Lets all do it
                      SAN LIO                   44
SOLVED-X
 10 + 78.82 (18-10)
           78.82+54
= 14.75
SOLVED Y
10+ 49.18 (18-10)
      49.18+ 148
=11.99

                       SAN LIO   45
DECISION MAKING
Both projects have a cost of capital ( hurdle rate)
 of 10%
IRR rule indicates that if the projects are
 independent of each other, then the both are
 accepted since they earn more than the cost of
 capital needed to finance them
If the two projects are mutually exclusive, the
 project X ranks higher and should be selected and
 Y rejected
If the cost of capital is above 14.75, both projects
 will be rejected
                        SAN LIO                     46
NOTE
Both NPV and IRR will always lead to the same
 decision (accept or reject) for INDEPENDENT
 projects (mathematical reasons)
This so because if NPV is positive, IRR must
 exceed r (the cost of capital in NPV)
This scenario is however not true for projects
 that are mutually exclusive


                      SAN LIO                 47
IRR RATIONALE
 This particular rate is critical because:The IRR on
  a project is the expected rate of return
 If the IRR exceeds the cost of capital (funds used
  to finance the project), then a surplus will remain
  after paying for the capital. This surplus
 will accrue to the entity’s stockholders
 This means a project whose IRR exceeds its cost
  of capital increases shareholders wealth.
 If the IRR is less than the cost of capital, then that
  particular project will impose a cost on
  stockholders
                          SAN LIO                      48
NOTE: This break-even quality of IRR makes it
 fairly useful in evaluating capital projects




                      SAN LIO                    49
NPV VERSUS IRR
NPV is better than IRR in many aspects.
IRR however can not be ignored- popular with
 many managers and seriously entrenched into
 the business industry
Important to understand why a project with a
 lower IRR may be more attractive to a mutually
 exclusive one with a higher IRR
Look at the NVP Profile curve SLIDE 56- simply
 plots a projects NPV and cost of capital- And if a
 project has its cash flows coming in the early
 year;
                        SAN LIO                       50
Then its NPV will not decline very much if the
  cost of capital increases but a project with
  cash flows which come later will be severely
  penalized by high capital costs. –Y in our case
  and it has a steeper slope
NOTE NPV profiles decline as the cost of
  capital increases


                       SAN LIO                      51
EVALUATING INDEPENDENT PROJECTS
Both the NPV and IRR criteria always lead to
 the same accept/reject decision

EVALUATING MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE PROJECTS
If we assume that our projects X and Y are
  mutually exclusive
This means we can either choose X or Y or
  reject both BUT cannot accept both
                      SAN LIO                   52
 A conflict exists where the cost of capital is less than
  the crossover rate- NPV will choose X whereas IRR will
  choose Y
 If r is greater than cross point-both NPV and RRR take X
 This conflict is resolved by asking the question- how
  useful is it to generate cash flows sooner rather than
  later
 This really depends on how on the return we can earn
  from those cash flows ie the rate at which we can
  reinvest them.
 The NPV assumes that the rate at which cash flows can
  be reinvested is the cost of capital

                           SAN LIO                       53
IRR assumes that the firm can reinvest at the
 IRR rate
In this particular case, NPV prevails as a better
 method since it is better to reinvest at the cost
 of capital rather than at IRR rate
Thus where the conflict exist, NPV is used
 accordingly


                       SAN LIO                   54
• NPV
• 400
• 300                     Ys NPV profile
•                       Xs NPV profile




•       IRR

              SAN LIO                      55
MULTIPLE IRRs
 This exists if a project is regarded as having nonnormal
   cash flows.
 Nonnormal cash flows occur when there is more than
   one change in the sign e.g. a project starts with
   negative cash flows and switch to positive cash flows
   and switch again to negative cash flows
 These kinds of projects can have two or more IRRs
ILLUSTRATION
Imagine a firm is considering the expenditure of Ksh 1.6
   million to develop an equipment to manufacture balls.
   The balls will produce a cash flow of Ksh 10 million at
   the end of year 1.

                           SAN LIO                       56
At the end of year 2, additional Ksh 10 million must be
   utilised to expand this project due to increasing
   demand due to the upcoming world cup championship
REQUIRED
IRR of the project
SOLUTION
NPV=Ksh 1.6 + Ksh 10 + -Ksh10 = 0
        (1+IRR)0 (1+IRR)1 (1+IRR)2
=Ksh 1.6 +Ksh 10 + -Ksh10 = 0
             (1+IRR)1 (1+IRR)2

                          SAN LIO                     57
1.6 (1+IRR)2 = 10(1+IRR) -10
1.6(1+IRR)2= 10 + 10IRR -10
1.6IRR2 + 3.2IRR + 1.6= 10IRR
1.6IRR2 -6.8IRR +1.6 = 0
4IRR2 -17IRR +4 =0
 SOLVING EQUATION
IRR = 25% OR 400%
MULTIPLE IRRs
MEANING

                        SAN LIO   58
1. If NPV were used, then there would be no
   dilema in making the decision
2. if the r were between 25% and 400%, the
   NPV would be positive




                     SAN LIO                  59
MODOFIED IRR
NPV prevails over IRR in times of conflict but IRR
 continues to be popular and many executives
 prefer IRR to NPV because it is apparently easy to
 work with a percentage
The idea here is to device a percentage evaluator
 that is better than IRR
This is basically done by modifying the IRR rate
 and make it a better indicator of relative
 profitability and therefore better for use in capital
 budgeting
This is called MIRR
                         SAN LIO                     60
 Formula :
 PV OF COSTS= TERMINAL VALUE
                  (1+MIRR)n

-  COF= Cash outflows (negative numbers)
-  CIF = cash inflows (positive numbers)
-  r= the cost of capital
-  The compounded future value of the cash inflows is called the
   TERMINAL VALUE (TV)
- The discount rate that makes PV of TV equal to the PV of the costs
   is the MIRR
ASSIGNMENT
Lets attempt the MIRR for projects X and Y


                                SAN LIO                                61
PROJECT X
1000= 1579.50
         (1 +irr)4
Irr= 12.1%




                     SAN LIO   62
IRR ADVANTAGES
The rate of return measured is familiar with
 managers
 incorporates the time value of money

DISADVANTAGES
Nonnormal cash flows produces multiple IRRs
For mutually exclusive projects, there is conflict
  with NPV- although this problem is solved by
  MIRR

                         SAN LIO                      63
PROFITABILITY INDEX
Computed as
PI = PV of future cash flows
         Initial cost
EXAMPLE PROJECT X
PIX = 1,078.82/1000= 1.079
A project is accepted if its PI is greater than 1
The higher the PI the higher the project’s ranking
SSIGNMENT
Which project would be selected between X and
   Y
                        SAN LIO                   64

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Capital budgeting

  • 1. WHAT IS CORPORATE FINANCE The division of a company that is concerned with the financial operation of the company. In most businesses, corporate finance focuses on raising money for various projects or ventures. For investment banks and similar corporations, corporate finance focuses on the analysis of corporate acquisitions and other decisions This is basically about money OBJECTIVES SAN LIO 1
  • 2. The primary goal of corporate finance is to Maximize corporate value while managing the firm’s financial risks SAN LIO 2
  • 3. ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Primary goal of financial management is to maximize the stock price, not accounting measures such as the bottom line or EPS. Evaluation of accounting statements helps management appreciate the company’s performance trends, as well as to forecast where the company is going The primary financial statements include:  The statement of financial position  The income statement SAN LIO 3
  • 4.  The statement of retained earnings or called statement of changes in equity  The cash flow statement OTHERS ARE  Notes to the financial statements  Accounting policies  Statement of financial position-retrospective restatement Ratios analysis-important SAN LIO 4
  • 5. RATIOS Solvency and financial strength Profitability ratios Earning value ratios (share value) Efficiency ratios Gearing/leverage ratios SAN LIO 5
  • 6. CONSIDER THESE OBJECTIVES OF FM Provide support for decision making Ensure the availability of timely, relevant and reliable financial and non-financial information Manage risks Use resources efficiently, effectively and economically Strengthen accountability Provide a supportive control environment Comply with authorities and safeguard assets SAN LIO 6
  • 7. FINANCIAL PLANNING AND FORECASTING What is a plan?-explain this to the students What is a forecast- explain this to the students The optimal forecast becomes the budget SAN LIO 7
  • 8. CAPITAL BUDGETING TECHNIQUES  Defined- This is the process of evaluating specific investment decisions.  Capital investment decisions are important because:  They involve huge sums of money  Hard to discover alternative economic use  Difficult to get out of the project once funds are committed  Aim is to increase owners wealth and thus Control  Capital used to mean operating assets used in production SAN LIO 8
  • 9. Budget is a plan (activities) that details projected cash flows during some future period. Thus capital budget is an outline of planned investments in operating assets while capital budgeting is the whole process of analysing projects and identifying the ones to include in the budget accordingly and these the ones that add to firm’s value SAN LIO 9
  • 10. PROJECT CLASSIFICATION  KEY Categories which firms analyse include:  Replacement: MAINTENANCE OF BUSINESS-worn-out or damaged equipments –depends on whether to continue the business or go into new ventures- no need of elaborate decision process  Replacement: COST REDUCTION- detailed analysis  Expansion of existing products or markets- higher level decisions within the firm  Expansion into new products or markets- boards decision as a part of firm’s strategic plan SAN LIO 10
  • 11. Safety and/or environment projects- mandatory investments to comply with specific industry requirements Research and development- may use decision tree analysis rather than DCF techniques Long-term contracts- to provide products or services to specific customers- DCF analysis necessary SAN LIO 11
  • 12. CAPITAL BUDGETING DECISION RULES There are seven key methods namely Payback Discounted payback Accounting rate of return Net present value (NVP) Internal rate of return ( IRR) Modified internal rate of return (MIRR) Profitability index SAN LIO 12
  • 13. PAYBACK PERIOD Expected number of years required to cover the original investment Payback = year before full recovery + unrecovered cost at start of year Cash flow during the year EXAMPLE Take two projects X and Y X= -1000 Y1 500 Y2 400, Y3 300 Y4 100 Y=-1000 Y1 100 Y2 300 Y3 400 Y4 600 SAN LIO 13
  • 14. EXAMPLE CONT Required: find payback period and advise which project should be undertaken if both projects are mutually exclusive SOLUTION X= 2 + 100/300 = 2.33 Y= 3+ 200/600= 3.33 CONCLUSION  X has the shortest pay back period thus accepted accordingly. SAN LIO 14
  • 15. DISCOUNTED PAYBACK Here the expected cash flows are discounted by the project’s cost of capital Discounted payback period defined as the number of years required to recover the investment from discounted net cash flows EXAMPLE OF OUR PROJECTS X AND Y Discounting the cash inflows for both projects assuming a cost of capital of 10% Use tables accordingly SAN LIO 15
  • 16. EXAMPLE CONT Project X = 2 + 214/225= 2.95 years Project Y = 3 + 360/410= 3.88 years Project X is preferred accordingly Period discounting factor at 10% 1 .9091 2 .8264 3 .7513 4 .6830 5 .6209 SAN LIO 16
  • 17. PROJECT X  YEAR CASH FLOW DIS FAC PV BAL 0 -1000 1 -1000 -1000 1 500 .9091 455 -545 2 4OO .8264 331 -214 3 300 .7513 225 11 4 100 .6830 68 79 THUS: 2 + 214/225 = 2.95 SAN LIO 17
  • 18. PROJECT Y  Pay back 3 + 360/410 = 3.88 ADVANTAGES OF PAYBACK METHOD Easy to understand and calculate Provides some assessment of risk  in a business environment of rapid technological changes, new plant and machinery may need to be replaced sooner than in the past, so a quick payback on investment is essential SAN LIO 18
  • 19. The investment climate today in particular, demands that investors are rewarded with fast returns. Many profitable opportunities for long-term investment are overlooked because they involve a longer wait for revenues to flow SAN LIO 19
  • 20. DISADVANTAGES Ignores cash flows after the payback period. Cash flows are regarded as either pre-payback or post- payback, but the latter tend to be ignored. Does not measure profitability. Payback takes no account of the effect on business profitability. Its sole concern is cash flow Ignores time value of money It lacks objectivity. Who decides the length of optimal payback time? No one does - it is decided by pitting one investment opportunity against another. SAN LIO 20
  • 21. NB/It is probably best to regard payback as one of the first methods you use to assess competing projects. It could be used as an initial screening tool, but it is inappropriate as a basis for sophisticated investment decisions SAN LIO 21
  • 22. ACCOUNTING RATE OF RETURN (ARR) Focuses on a project’s net income and not its cash flow Is the ratio of the project’s average annual expected net income to its average investment Formula ARR = Average annual income * 100 Average investment EXAMPLE Lets Assume the case of our TWO projects X and Y SAN LIO 22
  • 23. PROJECT X Lets further assume that both projects will be depreciated using the straight line method- in their useful economic life of FOUR years and have a scrap value of zero The depreciation expense = 1000/4= 250 per year AVERAGE ANNUAL INCOME= Average cash flow- Average annual depreciation Thus: (500+400+300+100)/4=325-250=75 SAN LIO 23
  • 24. AVERAGE INVESTMENT =Cost + Scrap Value 2 THUS: 1000 + 0/2 = 500 THUS ARR = 75/500*100= 15% Lets determine ARR for Project Y- EVERY BODY SAN LIO 24
  • 25. PROJECT Y 1,400/4= 350-250= 100 1000+0/2= 500 THUS ARR = 100/500*100= 20% CONCLUSION The ARR method ranks project Y over project X. If the firm accepts projects with say 18%, Then accordingly, project Y will be accepted and project X rejected. SAN LIO 25
  • 26. ADVANTAGES OF ARR Easy to understand and calculate Managers familiar with the key concepts Brings into consideration the income earned over the whole life of project The idea of return on capital employed is generally understood and this aids the comprehension of the accounting rate of return The minimum required rate of return can be set with reference to the cost of the finance used by the company plus the additional return it requires for its own profit. SAN LIO 26
  • 27. DISADVANTAGES OF ARR Ignores the time value of money The timing of income arising from alternative projects is ignored SAN LIO 27
  • 28. WHATS MORE ? We note that the rankings under the ARR method are exactly the opposite of the ones based on the Payback method What's the problem here? This is an argument we can have right here! Is it worth? Probably NO- Because these two method ignore a very fundamental issue- THE TIME VALUE of money. SAN LIO 28
  • 29. CONCLUSION ON THE TWO METHODS They both do not give us complete information on the projects contribution to the firm’s intrinsic value. DCF-Discounted Cash Flow techniques are therefore reliable because they address this problem SAN LIO 29
  • 30. NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) Present value (PV) is an accounting term that measures how money needs to be invested today in order to finance business initiatives, projects, and obligations tomorrow In order to determine the present value of future costs, accountants use formulas based on the time value of money. These formulas feature variables such as the length of time involved and the prevailing interest rate and/or inflationary rates SAN LIO 30
  • 31. In other words, the present value of an amount to be received in the future is the discounted face value considering the length of time the receipt is deferred and the required rate of return (or appropriate discount rate under the circumstances) Present value is the result of the time value of money concept, which works in recognition that today's Shilling is worth more than the same Shilling received at a future point in time. SAN LIO 31
  • 32. NPV PROCEDURE Find the present value of each cash flow, including all inflows and outflows, discounted at the project’s cost of capital Sum these discounted cash flows; this particular sum is called the project’s NVP If the NPV is positive, the project is accepted but rejected if the NPV is negative If two projects with positive NPV are mutually exclusive, the one with the higher NPV is selected SAN LIO 32
  • 33. THE FORMULA SAN LIO 33
  • 34. The formula (We know it!) WHERE  CFt= the expected net cash flow at period t  r= the projects cost of capital  n= the projects life  CF0= a negative number being the cash outflows NOTE We can also use the tables of discounted factors accordingly SAN LIO 34
  • 35. EXAMPLES Lets compute NPV Of both our projects X and Y SAN LIO 35
  • 36. NPV RATIONALE A NPV of zero signifies that the project’s cash flows are exactly sufficient to repay the invested capital and provide the required rate of return on that capital. A positive NPV means the project is generating more cash than needed to service the debt and to provide the required return to shareholders; and that this excess cash accrues solely to the entities stockholders Positive NPV means the wealth of the stockholders increases SAN LIO 36
  • 37. We may at this stage compare our two projects, X and Y, and see by how much each of them increases the shareholders wealth. NOTE: there is a direct relationship between NPV and EVA (Economic Value Added- which is the estimate of a business’s true economic profit for the year- and represents the residual income that remains after the cost of all capital, including equity capital. Quite different from accounting profit which does not include a charge for equity capital) SAN LIO 37
  • 38. NPV is equal to the present value of the project’s future EVAs. Thus accepting a project with positive NPV results in a positive EVA and a positive MVA (Market Value Added- being the excess of a firm’s market value over its book value). Since entities should in fact reward managers for producing positive EVA-MVA; then NPV becomes a better method for making capital budgeting decisions accordingly. SAN LIO 38
  • 39. ACCOUNTING OR ECONOMIC PROFIT Economic profit = (explicit and implicit revenue) Minus (explicit and implicit cost) Accounting Profit = TR (Total Revenue= Price * Quantity) - (Cost of land) - (cost of labor) – (cost of capital) Economic profit = accounting profit – cost of equity capital SAN LIO 39
  • 40. ADVANTAGES OF NPV Links capital budgeting decisions to EVA-MVA Recognizes the time value of money Correct ranking of mutually exclusive projects Dependent on forecast cash flows and opportunity cost of capital, instead of arbitrary guess work by management No arbitrary guess work SAN LIO 40
  • 41. DISADVANTAGES Possible errors in forecasting Hard to determine the minimum rate of return of a project Other factors which may affect a project’s structure of cash flows e.g. government grants, taxation etc SAN LIO 41
  • 42. THE INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN Defined as the discount rate that equates the present value of a project’s expected cash inflows to the present value of the project’s costs. This means: PV (Inflows) = PV (Investment costs) Further, this means IRR is simply the rate of return that forces the NPV to equal to Zero Formula : CF0 + CFI + CF2 + CFn =0 (1+irr)0 (1+irr)1 (1+irr)2 (1+irr)n Can use the calculator to solve the equation SAN LIO 42
  • 43. ALTERNATIVE FORMULAR TO IRR IRR = X + x * (Y-X) x+y Where  X = Discount rate for positive NPV  Y= Discount rate for negative NPV  x= positive NPV found using X  y= negative NPV found using Y  Ignore negative signs SAN LIO 43
  • 44. EXAMPLE-OUR PROJECT X AND Y NOTE- this is a trial and error process- whereby a higher rate of return (than the provided cost of capital) is used- until the result is a negative NPV Lets use 18% as cost of capital Discount factors are: YEAR1 .8475, Y2.7182, Y3.6086,Y4.5158,Y5.4371 Then solve IRR for both projects. Lets all do it SAN LIO 44
  • 45. SOLVED-X  10 + 78.82 (18-10) 78.82+54 = 14.75 SOLVED Y 10+ 49.18 (18-10) 49.18+ 148 =11.99 SAN LIO 45
  • 46. DECISION MAKING Both projects have a cost of capital ( hurdle rate) of 10% IRR rule indicates that if the projects are independent of each other, then the both are accepted since they earn more than the cost of capital needed to finance them If the two projects are mutually exclusive, the project X ranks higher and should be selected and Y rejected If the cost of capital is above 14.75, both projects will be rejected SAN LIO 46
  • 47. NOTE Both NPV and IRR will always lead to the same decision (accept or reject) for INDEPENDENT projects (mathematical reasons) This so because if NPV is positive, IRR must exceed r (the cost of capital in NPV) This scenario is however not true for projects that are mutually exclusive SAN LIO 47
  • 48. IRR RATIONALE  This particular rate is critical because:The IRR on a project is the expected rate of return  If the IRR exceeds the cost of capital (funds used to finance the project), then a surplus will remain after paying for the capital. This surplus  will accrue to the entity’s stockholders  This means a project whose IRR exceeds its cost of capital increases shareholders wealth.  If the IRR is less than the cost of capital, then that particular project will impose a cost on stockholders SAN LIO 48
  • 49. NOTE: This break-even quality of IRR makes it fairly useful in evaluating capital projects SAN LIO 49
  • 50. NPV VERSUS IRR NPV is better than IRR in many aspects. IRR however can not be ignored- popular with many managers and seriously entrenched into the business industry Important to understand why a project with a lower IRR may be more attractive to a mutually exclusive one with a higher IRR Look at the NVP Profile curve SLIDE 56- simply plots a projects NPV and cost of capital- And if a project has its cash flows coming in the early year; SAN LIO 50
  • 51. Then its NPV will not decline very much if the cost of capital increases but a project with cash flows which come later will be severely penalized by high capital costs. –Y in our case and it has a steeper slope NOTE NPV profiles decline as the cost of capital increases SAN LIO 51
  • 52. EVALUATING INDEPENDENT PROJECTS Both the NPV and IRR criteria always lead to the same accept/reject decision EVALUATING MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE PROJECTS If we assume that our projects X and Y are mutually exclusive This means we can either choose X or Y or reject both BUT cannot accept both SAN LIO 52
  • 53.  A conflict exists where the cost of capital is less than the crossover rate- NPV will choose X whereas IRR will choose Y  If r is greater than cross point-both NPV and RRR take X  This conflict is resolved by asking the question- how useful is it to generate cash flows sooner rather than later  This really depends on how on the return we can earn from those cash flows ie the rate at which we can reinvest them.  The NPV assumes that the rate at which cash flows can be reinvested is the cost of capital SAN LIO 53
  • 54. IRR assumes that the firm can reinvest at the IRR rate In this particular case, NPV prevails as a better method since it is better to reinvest at the cost of capital rather than at IRR rate Thus where the conflict exist, NPV is used accordingly SAN LIO 54
  • 55. • NPV • 400 • 300 Ys NPV profile • Xs NPV profile • IRR SAN LIO 55
  • 56. MULTIPLE IRRs  This exists if a project is regarded as having nonnormal cash flows.  Nonnormal cash flows occur when there is more than one change in the sign e.g. a project starts with negative cash flows and switch to positive cash flows and switch again to negative cash flows  These kinds of projects can have two or more IRRs ILLUSTRATION Imagine a firm is considering the expenditure of Ksh 1.6 million to develop an equipment to manufacture balls. The balls will produce a cash flow of Ksh 10 million at the end of year 1. SAN LIO 56
  • 57. At the end of year 2, additional Ksh 10 million must be utilised to expand this project due to increasing demand due to the upcoming world cup championship REQUIRED IRR of the project SOLUTION NPV=Ksh 1.6 + Ksh 10 + -Ksh10 = 0 (1+IRR)0 (1+IRR)1 (1+IRR)2 =Ksh 1.6 +Ksh 10 + -Ksh10 = 0 (1+IRR)1 (1+IRR)2 SAN LIO 57
  • 58. 1.6 (1+IRR)2 = 10(1+IRR) -10 1.6(1+IRR)2= 10 + 10IRR -10 1.6IRR2 + 3.2IRR + 1.6= 10IRR 1.6IRR2 -6.8IRR +1.6 = 0 4IRR2 -17IRR +4 =0 SOLVING EQUATION IRR = 25% OR 400% MULTIPLE IRRs MEANING SAN LIO 58
  • 59. 1. If NPV were used, then there would be no dilema in making the decision 2. if the r were between 25% and 400%, the NPV would be positive SAN LIO 59
  • 60. MODOFIED IRR NPV prevails over IRR in times of conflict but IRR continues to be popular and many executives prefer IRR to NPV because it is apparently easy to work with a percentage The idea here is to device a percentage evaluator that is better than IRR This is basically done by modifying the IRR rate and make it a better indicator of relative profitability and therefore better for use in capital budgeting This is called MIRR SAN LIO 60
  • 61.  Formula :  PV OF COSTS= TERMINAL VALUE (1+MIRR)n - COF= Cash outflows (negative numbers) - CIF = cash inflows (positive numbers) - r= the cost of capital - The compounded future value of the cash inflows is called the TERMINAL VALUE (TV) - The discount rate that makes PV of TV equal to the PV of the costs is the MIRR ASSIGNMENT Lets attempt the MIRR for projects X and Y SAN LIO 61
  • 62. PROJECT X 1000= 1579.50 (1 +irr)4 Irr= 12.1% SAN LIO 62
  • 63. IRR ADVANTAGES The rate of return measured is familiar with managers  incorporates the time value of money DISADVANTAGES Nonnormal cash flows produces multiple IRRs For mutually exclusive projects, there is conflict with NPV- although this problem is solved by MIRR SAN LIO 63
  • 64. PROFITABILITY INDEX Computed as PI = PV of future cash flows Initial cost EXAMPLE PROJECT X PIX = 1,078.82/1000= 1.079 A project is accepted if its PI is greater than 1 The higher the PI the higher the project’s ranking SSIGNMENT Which project would be selected between X and Y SAN LIO 64