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Conferencia FIST Marzo/Madrid 2008 @



                       Sponsored by:




Security Management Metrics
           Vicente Aceituno, 2008
About me

Vice president of the ISSA Spain chapter.
  www.issa-spain.org

Vice president of the FIST Conferences
association.
  www.fistconference.org

Author of a number of articles:
  Google: vaceituno wikipedia

Director of the ISM3 Consortium
  The consortium promotes ISM3, an ISMS standard
  ISM3 is the main source for this presentation.
  www.ism3.com
Management vs Engineering

Security Engineering: Design and build systems
than can be used securely.
Security Management: Employ people and
systems (that can be well or badly engineered)
safely.
Targets vs Outcomes

Activity and Targets are weakly linked.
Targets:
  +Security / -Risk
  Trust
Activity:
  Keep systems updated
  Assign user accounts
  Inform users of their rights
Definition

 Metrics are quantitative measurements that can be
 interpreted in the context of a series of previous or
 equivalent measurements.
 Metrics make management possible:
1.   Measurement – Some call this “metrics” too.
2.   Interpretation – Some call this “indicator”.
3.   Investigation – (When appropriate, logs are key here)
         Common cause
         Special cause
4.   Rationalization
5.   Informed Decision
Qualitative vs Quantitative Measurement

William Thomson (Lord Kelvin):                           “I often say that when you can
measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something
about it; but when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager and
unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely, in your
thoughts, advanced to the stage of science, whatever the matter may be”:

       “What can’t be measured, can’t
 Meaning:

    be managed”
Interpretation

It doesn’t make sense to set thresholds beforehand. You
have to learn what is normal to find out what is abnormal.
Thresholds can be fuzzy. False positives and false
negatives.
   Example: 1000 students tested for HIV, 10 have it.

HIV                            Have HIV Don’t have HIV

Test positive for HIV          9              99
Test negative for HIV 1                       891
Interpretation
Is it successful?
Is it normal?
How does it compare against peers?
Interpretation
Are outcomes better fit to their purpose?
Are outcomes getting closer or further from target?
Are we getting fewer false positives and false negatives?
Are we using resources more efficiently?
Rationalization
Is the correction/change working?
Is it cost effective?
Can we meet our targets with the resources we
have?
Are we getting the same outputs with fewer
resources?
Decisions
Good Metrics are SMARTIED

S.M.A.R.T
   Specific: The metric is relevant to the process being measured.
   Measurable: Metric measurement is feasible with reasonable cost.
   Actionable: It is possible to act on the process to improve the metric.
   Relevant: Improvements in the metric meaningfully enhances the
   contribution of the process towards the goals of the management
   system.
   Timely: The metric measurement is fast enough for being used effectively.
+Interpretable: Interpretation is feasible (there is comparable
data) with reasonable cost (false positives or false negatives
rates are low enough)
+Enquirable: Investigation is feasible with reasonable cost.
+Dynamic: The metric values change over time.
Fashion vs Results

Real Time vs Continuous Improvement
  Management is far more than Incident Response.
Risk Assessment as a Metric
  Only as useful as Investigation results.
Certification / Audit
  Compliant / Not compliant is NOT a Metric.
What are good Metrics?
  Activity: The number of outcomes produced in a time
period;
  Scope: The proportion of the environment or system that
is protected by the process.
  Update: The time since the last update or refresh of
process outcomes. (Are outcomes recent enough to be valid?)
  Availability: The time since a process has performed as
expected upon demand (uptime), the frequency and
duration of interruptions, and the time interval between
interruptions.
  Efficiency / ROSI: Ratio of outcomes to the cost of the
investment in the process. (Are we getting the same outcomes
with fewer resources? Are we getting more/better outcomes with the
same resources?)
What are good Metrics?

  Efficacy / Benchmark: Ratio of outcomes
produced in comparison to the theoretical
maximum. Measuring efficacy of a process implies
the comparison against a baseline. (Are outputs better fit
to their purpose?, Compare against industry/peers to show relative
position)
 Load: Ratio of available resources in actual use to
produce the outcomes, like CPU load, repositories
capacity, bandwidth, licenses and overtime hours
per employee.
 Accuracy: Rate of false positives and false
negatives.
Examples

Activity:
    Number of access attempts successful
Scope:
    % Resources protected with Access Control
Update:
    Time elapsed since last access attempt successful
Availability:
    % of Time Access Control is available
Efficiency / ROSI:
    Access attempts successful per euro
Efficacy / Benchmark:
    Malicious access attempts failed vs Malicious access attempts successful.
    Legitimate access attempts failed vs Legitimate access attempts
    successful.
Load:
    % mean and peak Gb, Mb/s, CPU and licenses in use.
Metrics and Capability

Undefined. The process might be used, but it is
not defined.
Defined. The process is documented and used.
Managed. The process is Defined and the
results of the process are used to fix and
improve the process.
Controlled. The process is Managed and
milestones and need of resources is accurately
predicted.
Optimized. The process is Controlled and
improvement leads to a saving in resources
Capability: Undefined

Measurement - None
Interpretation - None
Capability: Defined

Measurement - None
Interpretation - None
Investigation – (When appropriate, logs are key here)
   Common cause (changes in the environment, results
   of management decisions)
   Special cause (incidents)
Rationalization for use of time, budget, people
and other resources – Not possible
Informed Decision – Not possible
Capability: Managed
Measurement: Scope, Activity, Availability
Interpretation:
   Normal?, Successful?, Trends?
   Benchmarking, How does it compare?
   Efficacy.
Investigation (Common cause, Special cause)
   Find faults before they produce incidents.
Rationalization… – Possible
Informed Decision – Possible
Capability: Controlled
Measurement: Load, Update
Interpretation
   Can we meet our targets in time with the
   resources we have?
   What resources and time are necessary to
   meet our targets ?
Investigation
   Find bottlenecks.
Rationalization…- Possible
Informed Decision, Planning – Possible
Capability: Optimized
Measurement: Efficiency (ROSI)
Interpretation
Investigation
Rationalization
Informed Decision, Planning, Tradeoffs (point of
diminishing returns) – Possible
Metric Specification

Name of the metric;
Description of what is measured;
How is the metric measured;
How often is the measurement taken;
How are the thresholds calculated;
Range of values considered normal for the metric;
Best possible value of the metric;
Units of measurement.
Metrics Representation
Metrics Representation
Metrics Representation
          Access Rights Granted

16000,0                               1800,0
14000,0                               1600,0
12000,0                               1400,0
10000,0                               1200,0
 8000,0                               1000,0
 6000,0                                800,0
 4000,0                                600,0
 2000,0                                400,0
    0,0                                200,0
                                         0,0
 W 10

 W 13

 W 16

 W 19

 W 22

 W 25

 W 28

 W 31

 W 34

 W 37

 W 40

 W 43

 W 46

       9
     k4
                                               1   4   7    10 13 16 19   22 25 28 31 34   37 40
     k

     k

     k

     k

     k

     k

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                     Weeks


          Access Rights Granted                            Access Rights Granted

 1800,0                               1600,0
 1600,0                               1400,0
 1400,0                               1200,0
 1200,0                               1000,0
 1000,0
                                       800,0
  800,0
  600,0                                600,0
  400,0                                400,0
  200,0                                200,0
    0,0                                  0,0
                                         W 10

                                         W 13

                                         W 16

                                         W 19

                                         W 22

                                         W 25

                                         W 28

                                         W 31

                                         W 34

                                         W 37

                                         W 40

                                         W 43

                                               6
 W 10

 W 13

 W 16

 W 19

 W 22

 W 25

 W 28

 W 31

 W 34

 W 37

 W 40

 W 43

 W 46

       9




                                             k4
     k4




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                     Weeks                                           Weeks
Using Metrics

       Acumulado de Recomendaciones por Responsable (Suma de
                              días)
2500
                                                               Mr Blue
2000                                                           Mr Pink
                                                               Mr Yellow
1500                                                           Mr Purple
                                                               Mr Soft Blue
                                                               Mr Red
1000                                                           Mr Green
                                                               Mr Orange
 500

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Using security management metrics


Key Goal Indicators
Key Performance Indicators
Services Levels Agreements / Underpinnig Contracts
Balanced Scorecard (Customer, Internal, Stakeholder,
Innovation - Goals and Measures)
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Security Metrics

  • 1. Conferencia FIST Marzo/Madrid 2008 @ Sponsored by: Security Management Metrics Vicente Aceituno, 2008
  • 2. About me Vice president of the ISSA Spain chapter. www.issa-spain.org Vice president of the FIST Conferences association. www.fistconference.org Author of a number of articles: Google: vaceituno wikipedia Director of the ISM3 Consortium The consortium promotes ISM3, an ISMS standard ISM3 is the main source for this presentation. www.ism3.com
  • 3. Management vs Engineering Security Engineering: Design and build systems than can be used securely. Security Management: Employ people and systems (that can be well or badly engineered) safely.
  • 4. Targets vs Outcomes Activity and Targets are weakly linked. Targets: +Security / -Risk Trust Activity: Keep systems updated Assign user accounts Inform users of their rights
  • 5. Definition Metrics are quantitative measurements that can be interpreted in the context of a series of previous or equivalent measurements. Metrics make management possible: 1. Measurement – Some call this “metrics” too. 2. Interpretation – Some call this “indicator”. 3. Investigation – (When appropriate, logs are key here) Common cause Special cause 4. Rationalization 5. Informed Decision
  • 6. Qualitative vs Quantitative Measurement William Thomson (Lord Kelvin): “I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely, in your thoughts, advanced to the stage of science, whatever the matter may be”: “What can’t be measured, can’t Meaning: be managed”
  • 7. Interpretation It doesn’t make sense to set thresholds beforehand. You have to learn what is normal to find out what is abnormal. Thresholds can be fuzzy. False positives and false negatives. Example: 1000 students tested for HIV, 10 have it. HIV Have HIV Don’t have HIV Test positive for HIV 9 99 Test negative for HIV 1 891
  • 8. Interpretation Is it successful? Is it normal? How does it compare against peers?
  • 9. Interpretation Are outcomes better fit to their purpose? Are outcomes getting closer or further from target? Are we getting fewer false positives and false negatives? Are we using resources more efficiently?
  • 10. Rationalization Is the correction/change working? Is it cost effective? Can we meet our targets with the resources we have? Are we getting the same outputs with fewer resources?
  • 12. Good Metrics are SMARTIED S.M.A.R.T Specific: The metric is relevant to the process being measured. Measurable: Metric measurement is feasible with reasonable cost. Actionable: It is possible to act on the process to improve the metric. Relevant: Improvements in the metric meaningfully enhances the contribution of the process towards the goals of the management system. Timely: The metric measurement is fast enough for being used effectively. +Interpretable: Interpretation is feasible (there is comparable data) with reasonable cost (false positives or false negatives rates are low enough) +Enquirable: Investigation is feasible with reasonable cost. +Dynamic: The metric values change over time.
  • 13. Fashion vs Results Real Time vs Continuous Improvement Management is far more than Incident Response. Risk Assessment as a Metric Only as useful as Investigation results. Certification / Audit Compliant / Not compliant is NOT a Metric.
  • 14. What are good Metrics? Activity: The number of outcomes produced in a time period; Scope: The proportion of the environment or system that is protected by the process. Update: The time since the last update or refresh of process outcomes. (Are outcomes recent enough to be valid?) Availability: The time since a process has performed as expected upon demand (uptime), the frequency and duration of interruptions, and the time interval between interruptions. Efficiency / ROSI: Ratio of outcomes to the cost of the investment in the process. (Are we getting the same outcomes with fewer resources? Are we getting more/better outcomes with the same resources?)
  • 15. What are good Metrics? Efficacy / Benchmark: Ratio of outcomes produced in comparison to the theoretical maximum. Measuring efficacy of a process implies the comparison against a baseline. (Are outputs better fit to their purpose?, Compare against industry/peers to show relative position) Load: Ratio of available resources in actual use to produce the outcomes, like CPU load, repositories capacity, bandwidth, licenses and overtime hours per employee. Accuracy: Rate of false positives and false negatives.
  • 16. Examples Activity: Number of access attempts successful Scope: % Resources protected with Access Control Update: Time elapsed since last access attempt successful Availability: % of Time Access Control is available Efficiency / ROSI: Access attempts successful per euro Efficacy / Benchmark: Malicious access attempts failed vs Malicious access attempts successful. Legitimate access attempts failed vs Legitimate access attempts successful. Load: % mean and peak Gb, Mb/s, CPU and licenses in use.
  • 17. Metrics and Capability Undefined. The process might be used, but it is not defined. Defined. The process is documented and used. Managed. The process is Defined and the results of the process are used to fix and improve the process. Controlled. The process is Managed and milestones and need of resources is accurately predicted. Optimized. The process is Controlled and improvement leads to a saving in resources
  • 18. Capability: Undefined Measurement - None Interpretation - None
  • 19. Capability: Defined Measurement - None Interpretation - None Investigation – (When appropriate, logs are key here) Common cause (changes in the environment, results of management decisions) Special cause (incidents) Rationalization for use of time, budget, people and other resources – Not possible Informed Decision – Not possible
  • 20. Capability: Managed Measurement: Scope, Activity, Availability Interpretation: Normal?, Successful?, Trends? Benchmarking, How does it compare? Efficacy. Investigation (Common cause, Special cause) Find faults before they produce incidents. Rationalization… – Possible Informed Decision – Possible
  • 21. Capability: Controlled Measurement: Load, Update Interpretation Can we meet our targets in time with the resources we have? What resources and time are necessary to meet our targets ? Investigation Find bottlenecks. Rationalization…- Possible Informed Decision, Planning – Possible
  • 22. Capability: Optimized Measurement: Efficiency (ROSI) Interpretation Investigation Rationalization Informed Decision, Planning, Tradeoffs (point of diminishing returns) – Possible
  • 23. Metric Specification Name of the metric; Description of what is measured; How is the metric measured; How often is the measurement taken; How are the thresholds calculated; Range of values considered normal for the metric; Best possible value of the metric; Units of measurement.
  • 26. Metrics Representation Access Rights Granted 16000,0 1800,0 14000,0 1600,0 12000,0 1400,0 10000,0 1200,0 8000,0 1000,0 6000,0 800,0 4000,0 600,0 2000,0 400,0 0,0 200,0 0,0 W 10 W 13 W 16 W 19 W 22 W 25 W 28 W 31 W 34 W 37 W 40 W 43 W 46 9 k4 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 k k k k k k k k k k k k k ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee W Weeks Access Rights Granted Access Rights Granted 1800,0 1600,0 1600,0 1400,0 1400,0 1200,0 1200,0 1000,0 1000,0 800,0 800,0 600,0 600,0 400,0 400,0 200,0 200,0 0,0 0,0 W 10 W 13 W 16 W 19 W 22 W 25 W 28 W 31 W 34 W 37 W 40 W 43 6 W 10 W 13 W 16 W 19 W 22 W 25 W 28 W 31 W 34 W 37 W 40 W 43 W 46 9 k4 k4 k k k k k k k k k k k k k k k k k k k k k k k k k ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee W W Weeks Weeks
  • 27. Using Metrics Acumulado de Recomendaciones por Responsable (Suma de días) 2500 Mr Blue 2000 Mr Pink Mr Yellow 1500 Mr Purple Mr Soft Blue Mr Red 1000 Mr Green Mr Orange 500 0 o Fe r o o ie e zo pt sto o Ag o O re ic bre e ril ay ni r li er br e Ab N tub b Ju ar Ju Se o En m m br M m M c ie ie ov D
  • 28. Using security management metrics Key Goal Indicators Key Performance Indicators Services Levels Agreements / Underpinnig Contracts Balanced Scorecard (Customer, Internal, Stakeholder, Innovation - Goals and Measures)
  • 29. Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 2.0 You are free: •to copy, distribute, display, and perform this work Under the following conditions: Attribution. You must give the original author credit. No Derivative Works. You may not alter, transform, or build upon this work. For any reuse or distribution, you must make clear to others the license terms of this work. Any of these conditions can be waived if you get permission from the author. Your fair use and other rights are in no way affected by the above. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
  • 30. @ with the sponsorship of: THANK YOU www.fistconference.org