3. The best is to fail
if a dire forecast:
beneficially self-destructing
4. Transcend the
obvious
Markets, technology = obvious concerns
But in addition perhaps, f ex, competency
calling for nerds/geeks
working long hours but odd ones
’odd’ behavior: wild music, informal dress
= how recruit, how motivate, selection criteria
5. So: values do change
both inside an organization
AND affecting market & social behavior
So describing & understanding values offer great
potential
7. Forecast concerns
Forecasts to 7 decimal places hokey
Mysterious, sometimes in-exact labels
(ex the XYZ society)
Too many forecasts = several conflicting?
Irregularities may signal important change looming
8. Single forecasts
reasonable
–– But their sum may outcrowd
people
markets
society
+ Systems move at different speeds
energy systems ≠ dress fashion
10. But in addition to
’when’
HOW
Order of events crucial
Results path dependent
Increasing marginal returns possible
11. Catastrophe, path dependent:
An attempt to go from A to B is harmonious but the way
from A over C results in a drastic fall, a discontinuity
Ill. Gull-May Holst
14. Collect, match different
future studies
They portray today’s concerns
Whose concerns (competition, politicians,…)
… thus pix of tomorrow
15. Actions!?
- Organize future studies thematically and relations-wise
- Qualify/quantify relations to possible macroeconomics &
’futuribles’
- Create incentives for front-line people to report on
change signals
- Establish prediction markets for emerging demands &
technology
