Presentation on the future of Social Media extrapolated from 2012 trends. Presented at Social Media World #smworld at the Melbourne Internet Show #internetshowmel on 1 May 2012 by David Warwick.

1. Social Media: Where is it headed?
David Warwick
The Internet Show – Melbourne
1 May2012
@drwarwick
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

2. The Future – Forces and Trends
Structure and History
Source: http://socialproofing.com.au/future-tense-social-media/
PredictionThe future will be the result of forces and trends operating today …
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

3. Forces
Structure and History
Proliferation
The number of platforms, options and function grows (hype cycle)
Adoption
More people adopt social media (adoption curve)
Commercialization
Market share gives way to classic financial drivers (business maturity)
Convergence
Silos of innovation are combined for greater innovation (product iteration)
Rationalization
Winners and losers are determined and market settles (economics of scale)
Governance
Established power-base controls emerging risk (law and government – catch up)
Invention
Further discovery and innovation creates unforeseen disruption
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

4. Proliferation
Structure and History
Initiating Force
Players enter emerging space en masse.
Effect
Complexity of market requires decisions
on ‘where to play’ and ‘where to spend’.
Action
Market analysis and single point of
management are required by both
businesses and individuals.
Outcome
Publishing, listening, measuring and
management applications appear and
have their own proliferation cycle!
Source:Knowem … http://socialmediatoday.com/briansolis/109255/online-reputation-and-brand-management-starts-identity
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

5. Adoption
Structure and History
Source: Facebook
Initiating Force The late majority and laggards enter space and ‘use-cells’ form.
EffectAll market segments are present and ‘segmentation by innovation’ is lost.
ActionData related to connections needs to exist outside of individual platforms.
OutcomePersonal ‘contact books’ and integrated social CRM for business increase in use.
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

6. Commercialization
Structure and History
Initiating Force
Seed funding ends, returns demanded.
Effect
All social media platforms must
eventually find a way to make money.
Action
Advertising proliferates, however other
shifts in trading data, preference, or
utility for payment are embraced.
Outcome
Commercial forces change the flavour
and in some cases the essence of key
platforms. Low-socioeconomic groups
effectively disenfranchised. Key
influencers rewarded.
Source: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57367614/facebook-poised-for-ipo/
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

7. Convergence
Structure and History
Initiating Force
Innovation from combining advancements.
Effect
Greater utility, ubiquity and uptake.
Action
Media edges are blurred (Press, TV, Radio,
Internet, Point-of-Sale, Education, Mobile).
Outcome
Social media covers the ‘four-screen world’
(mobile, PC, entertainment, environment).
Linking technology is about seamless
transition, shared data and immersive
experience (far beyond QR codes,
geo-location and image recognition).
Source: http://www.jennamcwilliams.com/tag/convergence-culture/
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

8. Rationalization
Structure and History
Initiating ForceThere will be war and emerging from the clash will be a winner (winners).
EffectConvergence, commercial models and adoption trends will reduce proliferation.
ActionSome platforms will merge, some will fail and someone will buy the winner (s).
OutcomeFollow your audience and your strategy – not the platform!
Source:http://www.orangeinks.com/technology/the-real-evolution-of-social-networks-pic/
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

9. Governance
Structure and History
Initiating Force
Where is your power? The status quo or the future?
Effect
Governments, Corporations and a host of interest
groups wish to ‘bend’ social forces (online or offline)
for their agenda (benevolent or malevolent).
Action
Legislation, monitoring, filtering, isolation, propaganda,
campaigning and taxing … these are all forces that will
have an impact on Social Media and the online world.
Outcome
Different groups will get different outcomes. Although
Social Media will change the world, it will also be
changed and adapt to many existing forces and issues.
Source: http://www.openculture.com/2008/06/george_orwells_1984_download_free_audio_book_version.html
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

10. Invention
Structure and History
Initiating Force
People making change …
Jeffrey Zeldman …
- Ubiquitous
- Monolithic
- Smarter
-Invisible
http://www.businessinsider.com/future-of-social-media-2011-11#
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

11. Preparing for the FUTURE
Structure and History
Proliferation (there are more platforms than demographic groups or business strategies)
Strategy (audience and message) guide activity using monitoring technology.
Adoption (all market segments are present and there is no remaining early adopter advantage)
Clusters need to be determined and tracked. Social or integrated CRM is the key.
Commercialization (dominant platforms increasing function according to profit drivers)
Pay for priority, utility and influence. Micro and SM payment functionality matures.
Convergence (network speed, shared data, all devices, most locations are integrated)
Preferences and personal brand are key to almost ubiquitous engagement. ID integrity.
Rationalization (“complexity on the other side of simplicity” … )
Learn what works, remain flexible and embrace the outcome that delivers. Metrics!
Governance (control and monitoring will increase proportional with value creation and adoption)
Develop your own objective, policy and monitoring approach. Gain Influence!
Invention (nothing is more certain than change)
Other forces will make the future unpredictable. Gain Knowledge! Keep Flexibility!
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

12. Influence | Knowledge | Flexibility
Structure and History
Nearly universal literacy
is a defining characteristic of modern civilization.
Nearly universal authorship
will shape tomorrow's!
Denis Pelli& Charles Bigelow
A Writing Revolution
http://seedmagazine.com/
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

13. Growth in authorship
Structure and History
People are trading privacy for influence!
Trends
Books: x10 per century for 6 centuries | New media: x 10 per year for 6 years
Source: Denis Pelli& Charles Bigelow … http://seedmagazine.com/
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

14. Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

15. Monitoring – ‘Listening Post’ Model (control and learning)
Structure and History
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

16. Invention
Structure and History
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

17. END
David Warwick
Director of Technology and Services
davidw@bwired.com.au
M: 0411 411 555
P: 1300 780 566
@drwarwick
May2012
Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au