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Afghan Presidential Pre-Election National Opinion Survey Findings
Press Statement – Released 9:30 am Sunday December 29th 2014
Background
Glevum Associates and our Afghan research partner AIRC are pleased to announce the findings
of the first of three nationwide opinion surveys that we are conducting ahead of the Afghan
Presidential Elections schedule for April 2014. The aim of these surveys is to learn more about
likely voter preferences, voter participation trends, and attitudes towards the candidates and to
make that information widely available to Afghan public. These surveys also help inform
candidates regarding the trends, issues and concerns that matter most to likely voters and provide
statistical evidence of changes in momentum during the campaign.
Survey Information and Methodology
The survey was conducted in all 34 provinces of Afghanistan, with around 2,500 Afghans
questioned about the upcoming elections. Of this total, the responses of 2,148 likely voters were
included in the survey findings. The survey was fielded between November 27 and December 3,
2014 using face-to-face interviews. The sampling margin of error is + 2.11 with a 95% level of
confidence. For subgroups, the margin of error is larger.
Candidates Support
While it is still early in the election cycle, amongst likely voters surveyed, Ashraf Ghani currently
has a 4-point lead over his nearest rival Doctor Abdullah (29% compared to 25%, respectively).
Abdul Karzai is next most popular with 8%; Professor Sayaf is at 6%; Zalmay Rasool 6%; and
Rahim Wardak 5%. All other candidates are below 5% at this time. About one in ten likely
voters (11%) remain undecided. Respondents were also asked whom else they would vote for, if
they could not vote for their preferred candidate. Again, Ahmadzay and Abdullah are neck and
neck (21% and 20%, respectively) as the second choice candidate. Among all candidates, Ashraf
Ghani support is the most firm with 70% of those who said they would vote for him also saying
that they will not change their minds before the April election.
Integrity of Candidates
A large majority (89%) said that they would not vote for a candidate with a history of
involvement in corruption. Similarly, 78% indicated that they would not vote for a candidate with
history of human rights violations.
Candidates Background
In a very positive development, fully 84% of respondents indicate that they would vote for a
candidate from a different tribe or ethnic group than their own or that it would not matter if the
candidate was from a different tribe or ethnic group.
Female Candidates
Positively, a majority of those surveyed (59%) would or might vote for a female candidate for
President. Fully 82% would or might vote for a candidate who asked a woman to run as vice-

1
president. Half (50%) also support women having more freedom.
Presidential Endorsement
Fully 85% said they would not be swayed by President Karzai’s endorsement of a particular
candidate or it would not matter to them. However, 58 percent said they would consider voting
for a candidate that a family member supports.
Most Important Issues
Not surprisingly security (49%) tops the list of the most important issues that likely voters in this
survey said the new president must address followed by economic issues (17%) and education
(6%).
Reconciliation with the Taliban
A sizable majority of those surveyed (61%) said they would vote for a candidate who wants to
negotiate with the Taliban.
Relations with the United States
An even larger majority (71%) would vote for a candidate who wants positive relations with the
United States and a sizable minority (40%) considers it important that candidates should want to
keep some international troops in AF after 2014.
Fairness and Transparency
Most (77%) indicated some confidence that the election will be fair and transparent and a large
majority (89%) are either “very” or at least a “little confident” that their vote will be confidential.
Most are at least somewhat clear about the presidential election process, however a third do not
understand the process at all. Radio is the most common source of election information.
Violence During Elections
About half of respondents are concerned about violence in their districts prior to the election and
on Election Day.
Contact
To learn more about this survey, please visit our dedicated website voteafghanistan.com where a
copy of the survey findings is available to download as well as a methods report and supporting
data. You can also follow us on Facebook at Afghan Voice for Elections ( ‫صدای افغان برای‬
‫.)انتخابات‬
Alternatively Contact:
Kabul: Ms Alicia Boyd at Alicia.boyd@glevumusa.com
International: Andrew Garfield at Andrew.j.garfield@glevumusa.com (+ 1 571 228 4813)

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Afghan election survey wave one press release Dec 29

  • 1. Afghan Presidential Pre-Election National Opinion Survey Findings Press Statement – Released 9:30 am Sunday December 29th 2014 Background Glevum Associates and our Afghan research partner AIRC are pleased to announce the findings of the first of three nationwide opinion surveys that we are conducting ahead of the Afghan Presidential Elections schedule for April 2014. The aim of these surveys is to learn more about likely voter preferences, voter participation trends, and attitudes towards the candidates and to make that information widely available to Afghan public. These surveys also help inform candidates regarding the trends, issues and concerns that matter most to likely voters and provide statistical evidence of changes in momentum during the campaign. Survey Information and Methodology The survey was conducted in all 34 provinces of Afghanistan, with around 2,500 Afghans questioned about the upcoming elections. Of this total, the responses of 2,148 likely voters were included in the survey findings. The survey was fielded between November 27 and December 3, 2014 using face-to-face interviews. The sampling margin of error is + 2.11 with a 95% level of confidence. For subgroups, the margin of error is larger. Candidates Support While it is still early in the election cycle, amongst likely voters surveyed, Ashraf Ghani currently has a 4-point lead over his nearest rival Doctor Abdullah (29% compared to 25%, respectively). Abdul Karzai is next most popular with 8%; Professor Sayaf is at 6%; Zalmay Rasool 6%; and Rahim Wardak 5%. All other candidates are below 5% at this time. About one in ten likely voters (11%) remain undecided. Respondents were also asked whom else they would vote for, if they could not vote for their preferred candidate. Again, Ahmadzay and Abdullah are neck and neck (21% and 20%, respectively) as the second choice candidate. Among all candidates, Ashraf Ghani support is the most firm with 70% of those who said they would vote for him also saying that they will not change their minds before the April election. Integrity of Candidates A large majority (89%) said that they would not vote for a candidate with a history of involvement in corruption. Similarly, 78% indicated that they would not vote for a candidate with history of human rights violations. Candidates Background In a very positive development, fully 84% of respondents indicate that they would vote for a candidate from a different tribe or ethnic group than their own or that it would not matter if the candidate was from a different tribe or ethnic group. Female Candidates Positively, a majority of those surveyed (59%) would or might vote for a female candidate for President. Fully 82% would or might vote for a candidate who asked a woman to run as vice- 1
  • 2. president. Half (50%) also support women having more freedom. Presidential Endorsement Fully 85% said they would not be swayed by President Karzai’s endorsement of a particular candidate or it would not matter to them. However, 58 percent said they would consider voting for a candidate that a family member supports. Most Important Issues Not surprisingly security (49%) tops the list of the most important issues that likely voters in this survey said the new president must address followed by economic issues (17%) and education (6%). Reconciliation with the Taliban A sizable majority of those surveyed (61%) said they would vote for a candidate who wants to negotiate with the Taliban. Relations with the United States An even larger majority (71%) would vote for a candidate who wants positive relations with the United States and a sizable minority (40%) considers it important that candidates should want to keep some international troops in AF after 2014. Fairness and Transparency Most (77%) indicated some confidence that the election will be fair and transparent and a large majority (89%) are either “very” or at least a “little confident” that their vote will be confidential. Most are at least somewhat clear about the presidential election process, however a third do not understand the process at all. Radio is the most common source of election information. Violence During Elections About half of respondents are concerned about violence in their districts prior to the election and on Election Day. Contact To learn more about this survey, please visit our dedicated website voteafghanistan.com where a copy of the survey findings is available to download as well as a methods report and supporting data. You can also follow us on Facebook at Afghan Voice for Elections ( ‫صدای افغان برای‬ ‫.)انتخابات‬ Alternatively Contact: Kabul: Ms Alicia Boyd at Alicia.boyd@glevumusa.com International: Andrew Garfield at Andrew.j.garfield@glevumusa.com (+ 1 571 228 4813) 2