3. [en]bocm fs mrt mri

Overview of Feasibility Study for Bilateral Offset Credit
Mechanism (BOCM) on MRT in Vietnam
- Promotion of Modal Shift from Road-based Transport to
Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) System -
Kick off Seminar on “Studies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in
Transportation Sector of Vietnam under the Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism”
23th August 2012, at Melia Hanoi, Hanoi, Viet Nam

MITSUBISHI RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.
August, 2012

Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

Contents
1. Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. (MRI)
2. Objectives of Feasibility Study on MRT in Vietnam
3. Overview of the result of our study in FY 2011
4. Overview of our study plan in FY 2012

Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. 2

1. Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute (MRI)


Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute (1/2)

Profile
• Corporate Name Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
• Head Office Tokyo, Japan
• Foundation May 8, 1970
• Listing First Section of the Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Stock code:3636)
• Researchers 645 as of September 30, 2011
• Sales 73.3 billion yen (FY2010/9)
(Consolidated)

Main Features
• Leading think tank and consulting company
in Japan
• Member of Mitsubishi-group, but not
subsidiary of others

If you need more information, please see
http://www.mri.co.jp/E/index.html

Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute (2/2)

Analytic approach to top
management decision-making

Business strategy
Marketing science
Technology management
Patent utilization

Future oriented and a collaborative, Systems integration and
interdisciplinary approach for outsourcing services that effect
policy making management change
Global warming and energy challenges Data systems for top management
Social security problems Financial risk management solutions
Low birthrate and aging population Banking and credit card systems
issues Payroll and personnel outsourcing
Education and human resources
development


MRI’s experiences on Climate Change Issues
MRI has many experiences on Climate Change Issues and CDM.
 Mitsubishi Research Institute Inc. (MRI) has 22 years’ experience on climate-related research.
 MRI has been instrumental in the background analysis and formulation of key
government policies on climate change, with contracts from mainly MOE and METI.
 MRI has been consulting the electricity industries etc. on climate change policy.
 MRI supported our clients to formulate PDDs for CDM, and developed 5 approved CDM
methodologies as below.
Approved CDM methodologies developed by MRI
No Sector Title
AM0009 Fugitive Recovery and utilization of gas from oil wells that would
otherwise be flared or vented
AM0062 Energy Industries Energy efficiency improvements of a power plant through
retrofitting turbines
AM0093 Waste handling Avoidance of landfill gas emissions by passive aeration of
and disposal landfills
AMS III-S Transport Introduction of low-emission vehicles/technologies to
commercial vehicle fleets
AR-AM0008* Afforestation and Afforestation or reforestation on degraded land for sustainable
reforestation wood production ( * AR-AM0008 is now consolidated to AR-ACM0002)


MRI’s experiences on BOCM
MRI has many experiences on BOCM’s F/S, some of F/S are on going in FY2012.

MRI’s experiences on BOCM Feasibility Studies
Sector Title of study
Transportation * Development of Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) Systems in Jakarta, Indonesia, GEC
and Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh, Viet Nam
Renewable * Renewable Energy Development Focusing on Geothermal Power Generation in GEC
Energy Colombia
* Newly-constructed Geothermal Power Generation Project in Indonesia NEDO
* Geothermal Power Generation Project in the Great Rift Valley NEDO
Power Plant * Study for the Possibility of Application of Ultra Super Critical Steam Conditions NEDO
for Coal Fired Power Plant in Vietnam
Newly-constructed CCGT Power Generation Project in the People’s Republic of NEDO
Bangladesh
BFG Fired Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Power Plant Project in India and Turkey NEDO
Other CO2 Abatement through Utilisation of Blast Furnace Slags as Blending Material for GEC
Cement in Viet Nam
CCS * Feasibility Study for CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) in Indonesia NEDO
REDD+ REDD+ and Bio-Fuel Production and Utilisation in Gorontalo Province, Indonesia GEC
With * : These studies are on going also in FY 2012.
Without * : These studies had been conducted in FY 2011.

2. Objectives of Feasibility Study on MRT in Vietnam


Benefits of BOCM and benefits relative to CDM
Credits from BOCM will be an additional source of revenue.
And BOCM could overcome CDM’s difficulties.
Benefits of BOCM
• Credits from BOCM will be issued as the amount of CO2 emissions reduction, and it could be
an additional source of revenue.
• That additional revenue could be invested in the improvement of MRT that may contribute to
promote utilization of MRT and also can lead to increase CO2 emissions reduction.
• e.g. - Investment in the energy saving facilities of transportation system
- Investment in the maintenance of the station
- Investment in establishing a park-and-ride system

Benefits relative to CDM
• The process of CDM takes a few years and constantly delay in schedule. On the other hand,
the process of BOCM could be much speeder than CDM.
• The methodology of CDM must be well generalized and applicable to many countries. On the
other hand, BOCM methodologies will be established under the situation of Vietnam that
enables setting default or fixed values.
• For MRT project, the monitoring cost would be reduced.
• e.g. Large-scale passengers’ surveys are required for CDM, but for BOCM simpler
methods would be available.
9

Objectives of feasibility study on MRT

Objectives of F/S
• To develop MRV methodology on MRT.
• To contribute as a case to further improve the institutional design of the BOCM,
while starting BOCM operation.
• To quantify anticipated amount of emissions reduction achieved by the project at
this time, applying the developed MRV methodologies

What to do
To achieve objectives, we will …
• Conduct surveys in Vietnam to establish the method to set the default or fixed
values, which are used for calculation of GHG emissions reduction by modal
shift to MRT.
• Determine project boundary, especially whether access/egress traffic to MRT
should be included to boundary or not.
• Make spread sheets for calculating emissions reduction.
• Estimate the amount of emissions reduction achieved by each MRT line.


Concept of GHG emissions reduction by MRT
Reference Scenario Project Scenario

CO2 CO2
CO2

CO2 CO2

Modal Shift

Difference
More CO2 emissions Less CO2 emissions
=

Emissions Reduction

Our targets: MRT Line 1 and 2 in Hanoi

Hanoi Urban Transport Line
Line #2

1
& Line

2

Line #1


Our target: MRT Line 1 in Ho Chi Minh City

Ho Chi Minh City Urban Transport Line

1


3. Overview of the result of our study in FY 2011


Overview of our study on MRT in FY 2011

Collecting related data

• We have checked availability of the existing data, which are used to calculate
GHG emissions reduction.

Proposal for options on project boundary

• We have proposed 3 options on project boundary, which mean emission sources
should be included to calculation.

Developed the framework of MRV methodology

• We considered the framework of MRV methodology, e.g. applicable
conditions, reference scenario, and so on.

Estimation of emissions reduction

• We have estimated the amount of GHG emissions reduction for each MRT
line by using developed methodology and collected data.


Basic concept of project boundary
There are 3 options of project boundary for calculation .
• Option 1: A ・・・ MRT only
• Option 2: A+B ・・・ + Access traffic from/to MRT stations
• Option 3: A+B+C ・・・ + Traffic volume change on surrounding roads

(A) MRT
Origin Station A Trip by MRT passengers Destination
Station B

Option 1

(B) Between Origin to Station A and Station B to Destination

Option 2

Surrounding road

(C) Surrounding road
Trip change influenced by MRT introduction
Option 3

* After this page, option 1 is adopted.

Concept of GHG emissions reduction calculation method
Reference Scenario = Without MRT Motorcycles, cars, buses, etc….
MRT MRT
Station A Station B
Person CO2 emissions
Kilometer × factor
[PKM] [tCO2/PKM]

Option 1

Difference
= Emissions Reductions

Project Scenario = With MRT

MRT MRT
Station A Station B
Electricity Gird CO2
Consumption × emissions factor
[kWh] [tCO2/kWh]

Option 1


Calculation Method for Reference Scenario(1)
CO2 emissions by transport modes which MRT passengers would have used, in
the case of without MRT
➀ ②

Person Kilometer × CO2 emissions factor
[PKM] [tCO2/PKM]

For each vehicle

= The number of trips for each vehicle [PKM]

= Total number of trips [PKM] × Modal share [%]

* If the number of trips for each vehicle can’t be available, total number of
trips will multiply by modal share.

* PKM: Person kilometer

Each parameter in above formula has some options to measure, but the basic concept of
methodology for reference emissions is same. It depends on data availability or feasibility.


Calculation Method for Reference Scenario(2)
- Person-Kilometer -
- Motor Cycles ●PKM
𝑥 𝑖,𝑗 × 𝑦 𝑖,𝑗 - Cars ▲PKM
× Modal share ＝
i,j
- Buses ■PKM
etc…

Total Person-Kilometer of Modal Share (based on PKM) [%]
MRT passengers [PKM] Person-Kilometer
for each transport mode [PKM]
The result of an existing survey

OD table between MRT stations
A st B st C st ・・・
The number of passengers from B station to C
A st 250 300 ・・・ station is 500 = 𝒙 𝑩,𝑪 [Person]

B st 100 500 ・・・ ×
C st 50 300
The distance between B and C station = 𝒚 𝑩,𝑪 [km]
・・・・・・・・・

=
𝒙 𝑩,𝑪 × 𝒚 𝑩,𝑪 [ 𝑃𝐾𝑀]


Calculation Method for Project Scenario

CO2 emissions by operating MRT

Electricity consumption × CO2 emissions factor
[kWh] [tCO2/kWh]

Data offered by MRT operating Default Value
company (e.g. The grid emissions
factor DNA release for CDM)


Monitoring and MRV
To reduce monitoring cost, the options using default or fixed values will be provided.
* Parameter Method to measure Frequency Measurement?
RE Total passengers-kilometer OD table based on IC card system Continually Measurement
RE Distance between stations e.g. Railroad map Once at project start Fixed Value
RE Modal share Existing survey, or Once at project start Fixed Value
Passengers survey, or Once at project start Measurement
Traffic volume survey Once at project start Measurement
RE Emission factor for fuels e.g. IPCC Once at project start Default Value
RE Fuel efficiency for vehicles Existing survey, or Once at project start Fixed Value
Actual fuel consumption and driving Once a year Measurement
distance
PE Electricity consumption Bill from grid electricity company Every meter reading Measurement
PE Emission factor for electricity e.g. IEA, Vietnamese government Once a year Default Value
* RE: Emission for Reference scenario, PE: Emissions for Project Scenario

• Measurement and Reporting: Operating entity of MRT will be in charge of measurement and
reporting. In this regard, Japan should conduct capacity building.
• Verification: To develop verifiers in Vietnam, capacity building toward such organizations is also
necessary.


The differences between BOCM and CDM
Differences on the emissions for Reference Scenario: CO2 emissions by travel
modes which MRT passengers would have used without MRT

Total trip by MRT CO2 emissions
BOCM passengers × factor
[PKM] [tCO2/PKM]

BOCM BOCM
OD table or statistics can be Default value can be applicable
applicable

CDM CDM
Passenger survey is required Sample survey is required

Total trip by MRT CO2 emissions
CDM passengers
× factor
[PKM] [tCO2/PKM]
* The BOCM methodology is now under consideration.

Emission Reduction Potential – trial estimation -
Trial estimation for a fictional MRT line

Items Value Remarks
(1) For Reference Emissions 157,704 (tCO2/year) = a*365*(each b*each c)
a Passenger-kilometer 6,000,000 PKM/day Assumption
b Modal Share (based on PKM) M/C 50.9%, Car 27.1%, Bus 21.9% HAIMUD
c CO2 emissions factor M/C 48 gCO2/PKM, Car 119 gCO2/PKM, Bus HOUTRANS etc
70 gCO2/PKM
(2) For Project Emissions 27,918 (tCO2/year) = d*e*g/(1-f)
d Electricity consumption by MRT 2,400 MWh/km/year Assumption
e Operating Distance 25.0km Assumption
f Loss rate on transmission and 12.1% IEA
distribution of electricity(e)
g Grid electricity emission factor 0.409 tCO2/MWh IEA
Emissions Reduction 129,786 (tCO2/year) = (1)-(2)
CO2 Credit Revenue US$ 1.65 million/year EUR 10.0 /t-CO2*
EUR 1.0 =US$ 1.27
* CO2 price : EUR 10.0 /t-CO2 (average CER price in 2011)


Remaining Issues
There are some remaining issues for applying BOCM to a MRT project

Conducting survey to get lacking data
 Modal share
 Fuel efficiency
 Number of passengers per one vehicle

Setting Boundary
 Necessity to include access/egress traffic and surrounding road*
* could be excluded according to results of existing CDM projects
 Evaluation criteria: relevance, data availability, and conservativeness
 Necessary information to evaluate: supposed behavior of passengers and
other persons concerned, and impact of changing boundary on emissions
reduction

Detailed design for MRV
 Who is in charge of measurement
 Which organization could conduct verification, etc.


4. Overview of our study plan in FY 2012


Toward FY2012 from FY2011
What we did in FY 2011
 To check availability of the existing data, which are used to calculate GHG
emissions reduction by modal shift
 To establish the framework of MRV methodology
 To arrange the concept of project boundary to three options
In FY2011
What we didn’t do - remaining issues -
 To collect some of data that are not available or not updated
 To establish the detail of MRV methodology
 To determine the appropriate project boundary

What we will do in FY 2012
 To conduct a survey to set the default or fixed values, which are used for
calculation of GHG emissions reduction
In FY2012
 To consider the detail of MRV methodology
 To conduct a survey to determine which boundary option is appropriate:
whether access/egress traffic to MRT should be included to boundary or not


Overview of the survey in FY 2012
Objective Survey Items Survey Methods

To determine whether Household Survey
access/egress should - Sample: 5,000 people
Access/egress traffic - Area: within about 2km from each MRT
be included to
Line
calculation or not - Method: face to face
- Survey items: Date, Purpose, Number of
people accompanied, Origin and
Destination, Travel mode, Travel duration,
Modal Share* Travel fee, Willingness to use MRT,
Travel mode for access/egress, Fuel
efficiency etc.

To set default or fixed
Actual fuel efficiency* Interview Survey
value
- Sample: 500 Taxi drivers and Bus
companies
- Survey items: Fuel consumption, Trip
distance, Fare receipt, Number of
Number of passengers passengers, Average occupation rate etc.
per one vehicle*

* For each travel mode which would be substituted by MRT

Overview of Household Survey (1/2)
Purpose
• To set the modal share as the default value, based on the understanding of the
daily use of travel mode.
• To understand the willingness of using MRT and supposed access / egress
travel mode
• To set the fuel efficiency for each vehicle type as the default value, based on
the understanding of the fuel consumption and travel distance.

Targets
• Sample size: 5,000 people
• Men and women over the age of five, who live in and go to schools and
hospitals along Hanoi No. 1 and No. 2 .

Method
• Conducting in two phase: Small scale Pilot-survey and Full scale Main-
survey
• Face-to-face interview visiting respondents’ home
• Showing a video and map of MRT with tablet PC in order to help
respondents to understand the image of MRT

Overview of Household Survey (2/2)
■ Survey Items

 Male/Female  Information of the trip
 Age for one week-day
 Date of trip
 House types  Purpose of trip
 The number of cars  The number of people
or motorcycles in use accompanied on each trip
 Occupation  Origin and Destination
 Income bracket General Trip  Travel mode / Time / Distance / Fee
Information Information

Household
Survey
 Vehicle information
 Type of vehicle / Model Fuel Willingness
 Engine Capacity Efficiency to use MRT
 Manufacture
 Respondent is willing to use MRT
 Year of purchase / manufacture  Access and egress traffic (Travel
mode/time/fee/distance)
 Fuel information  MRT (station/willingness to pay)
 Frequency of refuel
 How to refuel
 Respondent is willing not to use
 Type of fuel MRT
 Amount of fuel consumption  The reason of not using
and fuel fee for survey duration
 Travel distance for survey duration


Overview of Interview Survey (1/2)

Purpose

• To set the fuel efficiency for each vehicle type as a default value, based on the
understanding of the fuel consumption of buses and taxis.
• To set the average number of passengers per each vehicle as a default value.
Targets
• Bus operating companies in Hanoi
• Buses that driving routes are competitive with MRT lines and connecting with MRT
stations
• 500 taxi drivers in Hanoi
• Taxies that are driving along MRT lines
Method
＜Bus＞
• Interview to bus operating companies
• The questionnaire would be sent to the companies in advance.
＜Taxi＞
• Interview to taxi drivers driving along the Hanoi No. 1 and No. 2
• Researchers will ask to the drivers directly, but would contact to taxi companies only
when the number of drivers is not enough.
30

Overview of Interview Survey (2/2)
Interview to < Survey Period >
bus company Annual or monthly or daily actual figure
(depending on the data sources)
■ Interview Items
Operation and management Fuel efficiency Average number of
Number of buses Fuel consumption passengers/bus
Number of operation lines Trip distance Number of passengers
Distance of each operation line Fuel type Number and distance of service
Bus size Frequency of refuel Average number of passengers in
Frequency of operation Whether to fill up their gas tank each bus

Interview to < Survey Period >
taxi drivers Annual or monthly or daily actual figure
(depending on the data sources)
■ Interview Items

Operation Fuel efficiency Average number of passengers
Taxi company / number Fuel consumption Number of passengers
The year that a driver Trip distance Number of service
started business Frequency of refuel Distance of day
Area of usual driving Whether to fill up their gas tank Average number of passengers per
Frequency of operation Fuel type service

31

How to use the result of survey in FY2012
Default values for BOCM methodology would be set and the detail of methodology
would be established based on the result of Household survey and Interview survey.

Items set from the survey result Each item in BOCM methodology For CDM

Default value of modal share Passengers survey is
Used as share of vehicles
for each vehicle type required even after starting
substituted by MRT. operation of MRT

Default value of fuel efficiency
for each vehicle type
Used as CO2 emissions factor
Sample survey is required
(tCO2/PKM) for each vehicle type.
Default value of average
number of passengers

Whether to When access / egress traffic would be included Passenger’s survey is
include access / egress CO2 emissions associated with required even after
traffic in calculation access / egress traffic are calculated operating MRT

These are used
to calculate CO2 emissions reduction

Image of MRV methodology(1/2)
BOCM Eligibility Criteria
methodology  The methodology is applicable for urban or suburban transport system. It is ✓
not applicable for inter-urban transport.
 The methodology is applicable for MRT with technology from a foreign ✓
country.
 The methodology is applicable when OD data for each passenger can be ✓
griped by IC card ticket system.
SAMPLE  ・・・ ✓

Selecting a Calculation Method
Introducing Without existing rail-based
Option 1
MRT transport system

With existing rail-based transport
Option 2
system

Necessary Data for Calculation
Parameter Value Unit
Number of passengers between A station and B station ・・・ People/yr
Number of passengers between A station and C station ・・・ People/yr
・・・・・・ People/yr
Electricity consumption by operating MRT ・・・ MWh/yr
・・・・・・・・・


Image of MRV methodology(2/2)
BOCM Project Boundary
methodology Project boundary includes these emissions listed below.
 CO2 emissions by travel modes which are supposed to be used instead of MRT
 CO2 emissions by electricity consumption of operating MRT

Reference Scenario
SAMPLE MRT is not introduced and people use existing travel modes

Reference Emissions and Calculation
 Option 1
Person Kilometer [PKM] × CO2 emissions factor [tCO2/PKM]
 Option 2
・・・

Project Emissions and Calculation
Electricity consumption [kWh] × CO2 emissions factor [tCO2/kWh]

Monitoring
Parameter Measurement method
Number of passengers between stations Aggregation of records of IC card
Electricity consumption by operating MRT Bill from grid electricity company


Cooperation Structure and Schedule of the Study in FY 2012

 Formation Ministry of mutual cooperation
Ministry of
Environment(MOE) Transportation(MOT)

Global Environment Project Owner
Japan Centre Vietnam
Foundation(GEC) (VNR,MRB,MAUR)

<prime contractor>
MRI
<outsourcing> TDSI
Marubeni

 Schedule
Jul. 2012 Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2013 Feb.
Summary and
Questionnaire Detailed Pilot- Main-
Design survey Revise questionnaire Analysis of
Survey survey questionnaire

Consideration of MRV
MRV Consideration of MRV Methodology Materialization
Methodology
Methodology based on pre-survey of Methodology
based on main-survey

Accomplishment
Introduction of Seminar Interim Final
Report to MOT, in Hanoi Meeting
the Study Report
Project Owner

Interim Preliminary Final
Action in Japan
Report Report Report


Thank you
Xin cám ơn

Contact:
Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc
Environment＆Energy Research Division,
Climate Change Strategy Group

Tomoyuki NAGAMURA Sayaka OKUMURA
e-mail: nagamura@mri.co.jp e-mail: s.oku@mri.co.jp
Tel: +81-3-6705-5450／Fax: +81-3-5157-2146 Tel: +81-3-6705-5735／Fax: +81-3-5157-2146


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