3. Strategic Management @ 2013
The first………Then……………….
• The oil palm was first introduced to Southeast Asia in 1848, when four
seedlings, originating from West Africa, were planted in the botanical
gardens at Buitenzorg (now Bogor) in Java (Hartley 1988, 21).
• http://www.cambridge.org/us/books/kiple/palmoil.htm
• While on a trip to the United States in 1952, Masura Ibuka, founder of Tokyo
Telecommunications Engineering Corporation (now
Sony), discovered that AT&T was about to make licensing available for the transistor.
Ibuka and his partner, physicist Akio Morita, convinced the Japanese Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (MITI) to finance the $25,000 licensing fee (equivalent
to $216,134 today). For several months Ibuka traveled around the United States
borrowing ideas from the American transistor manufacturers. Improving upon the ideas,
Tokyo Telecommunications Engineering Corporation made its first functional transistor
radio in 1954.[5] Within five years, Tokyo Telecommunications Engineering Corporation
grew from seven employees to approximately five hundred.
• Other Japanese companies soon followed their entry into the American market and the
grand total of electronic products exported from Japan in 1958 increased 2.5 times in
comparison to 1957.[11]
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_radio
5. Strategic Management @ 2013
Futures
Long-term notions
of the good society
Unrealized but realisitic
possibilities of problem
solutions
Likely temporal
development
of societal problems
Possible futures
Desirable futures
Probable futures
8. Strategic Management @ 2013
Thinking the Future
Debating the Future Shaping the Future
Participatory
Action oriented
Open
Not only analysing or contemplating future
developments but supporting actors in
actively shaping the future
not predicting a pre-
determined future but
exploring how the future
might evolve in different
ways depending on the
actions of various players
and decisions taken ‘today’.
• involving the key
stakeholders
• Results are
disseminated and
discussed among a
wide audience
FORESIGHT
A process of systematic collective reasoning about the future
Professor Ron Johnston
Executive Director
Australian Centre for
Innovation
University of Sydney
12. Strategic Management @ 2013
Types of Scenarios
• Deductive ←→ Inductive
• organizing the big uncertainties or questions about the future into a logical form vs. taking into
consideration all data and ideas about the future,then insights about the future are induced from this
study of the data.
• Exploratory ←→ Anticipatory
• Present → Future. The current situation and then describe the steps that lead to a future situation vs.
Present ← Future Start with a prescribed vision of the future (either optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral)
and then work backwards in time to visualize how this future could emerge.
• Qualitative ←→ Quantitative
• visual symbols: diagrams; pictures or words: written phrases, outlines; or storylines vs.
Numerical information ,Commonly computed with models
•
13. Strategic Management @ 2013
Scenario Planning – Types
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Inductive
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Deductive
Official
Future
Alternative scenario
Incremental
Vision
Normative
Adapted from Ged Davis, Scenarios as a tool for the 21st century, Shell International, 2002
Ged Davis is Managing
Director, Head of the Centre
for Strategic Insight at the
World Economic Forum.
14. Strategic Management @ 2013
Starting from the future
Starting from the present
Exploratory and Normative Scenario Analysis
What next?
What if?
Where to?
How to?
21. Strategic Management @ 2013
Eurelectric Power choices –scenario 2050
Total consumption of energy will decrease...
Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologies
More electricity = less energy
23. Opportunities and threats can be found by analysing the
changes in the operating environment
Trend analysis
One or several dominating development
process analysed
Scenario analysis
Several alternatives described and analysed
Weak signal analysis
Uncertain but potentially high impact
49. Strategic Management @ 2013
Write Scenarios
Scenario – ครอบคลุมคุณลักษณะหลากหลายของอนาคต ให้ภาพรวมหลายมิติ /
multidimentional overview
Vignette - แสดงให้เห็นถึงองค์ประกอบหนึ่งของภาพจําลองในราย
ละเอียดมักจะผ่านการเล่าเรื่อง มุ่งเน้นไปที่หนึ่งมิติจากบริบทอื่น/ Focuses
on one dimension, others contextual.
Profile - คําอธิบายของโครงร่างของอนาคตในแง่ของพารามิเตอร์ที่สําคัญ /
skeletal description of future in terms of key parameters.
50. Strategic Management @ 2013
Elements of a Scenario
• 1. A base year (or period)
• 2. A time horizon (or period) and time steps.
• 3. A geographic coverage – city, country, global?
• 4. A description of step-wise changes
• 5. Driving forces or uncertainties
• 6. Storyline.
52. Strategic Management @ 2013
Transportation
Power
Information Communications
Health
Lighting
Services
Automation Control
Dietmar Theis
Siemens AG
Corporate Technology
München
dietmar.theis@siemens.com
Pictures of the Future
and Horizons2020 :
Developing scenarios for
future technologies and
food for thought
about future lifeworlds
53. Pictures of the Future and Horizons 2020 complement each
other in providing holistic scenarios about the long-term future
5 . . .10 years Time Horizon 10 . . . 20 years
Customers Society
Markets Focus Individual
Technologies Values
Technology Planning Communication
Business Opportunities Benefit Discussion
Communication Impulses
Corporate TechnologyDriverCorporate Communications
Transportation
Power
HealthServices
Information
Communications
Automation
Control
54. Future designs
• VISION (desired future; „mission“ a means to approach the vision)
• TREND (forseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation;
expert knowledge)
• FORECAST / PROGNOSIS (quantifies time and degree of use of trends;
expert knowledge)
• SCENARIOS (comprehensive approach, covers multiple trends and
their mutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible
futures
– STRATEGIC SCENARIOS (operational preparation for the future, quantified
options)
– COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS (intended for public discussion, qualitative
aspects of alternative future designs)
