2. Project Background/Planning Perspective
Review UWMP Supply and Demand Projections
Master Planning Process
◦ Scenario Development
◦ Supply/Facility Alternatives
◦ Evaluation Criteria
Overview of Programmatic EIR and Climate
Action Plan
Schedule for Remaining Work
2
4. In-System Storage
◦ Olivenhain Reservoir
24,000 AF held for
emergency storage
◦ Local Reservoirs
Currently 20,000 AF held
in member agency reservoirs
for drought carryover
◦ ESP/CSP
Hodges - 20,000 AF for emergency storage (2013)
San Vicente – 150,000 AF for emergency and carryover
(2013)
4
5. Twin Oaks Valley (SDCWA) David C. McCollom (OMWD)
(member agency agreement)
R. M. Levy (Helix)
(member agency agreement)
5
6. San Diego Regional Treatment Capacity
(MGD)
2012
Total Regional Water Treatment Plant Capacity 866
Miramar City of San Diego 215
Alvarado City of San Diego 200
Levy Helix Water District 106
Twin Oaks Valley San Diego County Water Authority 100
Escondido-Vista City of Escondido 62
Badger San Dieguito Water District/Santa Fe Irrigation Districts 36
Olivenhain Olivenhain Municipal Water District 34
Otay City of San Diego 36
Perdue Sweetwater Authority 28
Berglund City of Poway 24
Weese City of Oceanside 25
• Untreated Conveyance Capacity 500 MGD
• Untreated/Treated Split 70%/30% (2011)
6
7. North to south gravity flow pipeline system
Reliance on MWD / SDCWA to supplement
local water
Local WTPs in place to primarily treat local
supplies
‣ System improvements for Local Supplies 5%
added imported water
capacity
‣ Identified a need for new MWD 95%
storage facilities
1991
7
8. 2003 Quantification Settlement Agreement
IID water transfer, 35-yr take or pay, 4.88 maf
• $1.45 billion
Canal linings, 110 yrs, 4.32 maf
• $175 million
1997 Water Resource Plan
• Add IID water transfer 2005 Urban Water Management Plan
• Add 56kaf desalination
1995 Urban Water
2006 Comprehensive Reliability and
Management Plan
2000 Urban Water Cost Assessment “CRACA”
Management Plan •Analyze cost/reliability of CIP
1993 Water •Validate storage decisions
Resource Plan •Carlsbad desal is local project
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
1989 Water Distribution Plan 2009 CRACA “lite”
• Increase system capacity and reliability Emergency Storage Project •Validate CIP scope/cost
• 10 projects • Add 92 kaf of emergency storage •Drought mgmt impacts
• $530 million CIP budget • Add $730 million to CIP
• $1.594 billion CIP budget 2002 Water Facilities Master Plan
• Preferred alternative “supply from the west”
• Add up to 89 kaf of regional desalination
• Add 100 kaf of carryover storage
• Add 50-100 MGD of treatment capacity
• $3.229 billion CIP budget
8
9. Options Considered in 2002 Master Plan
Conveyance from the North
Supply from the West
Conveyance from the East
9
10. Develop up to 80 MGD of
seawater desal (supply
from the west)
Develop 50 to 100 MGD of
new WTP capacity
◦ New treatment needed to
maintain regional reliability
10
11. Develop 100,000 AF carryover pool to manage
seasonal peaks and drought conditions
Implement internal system improvements
Reaffirmed local supply development
If all the above is achieved, Pipeline 6 may be
postponed for several years
11
13. Member
Agency 2010
Facility UWMP
Plans
2012
Master
2002 Plan Asset
Master Update Management
Plan Program
Current
CIP
13
14. Water Use Water
Demand Water Scenario
Efficiency Resource
Forecast Supplies Planning
Target Mix
Econometric Process to
Water Resource mix
Model Retail manage
Authority to meet
utilizing Compliance supply
and member demands in
SANDAG with SBX7-7: uncertainties
agency normal and
Regional 20% savings associated
verifiable dry water
Growth by 2020 with resource
supplies years
Forecast mix
14
15. 900
Demands 786 TAF MWD
800
700
Demands 527 TAF
600 336 TAF
Regional Seawater
500 Desalination (Carlsbad)
56 TAF
400 262 TAF
126 TAF
300 Member Agency Local
200 110 TAF Supplies
280 TAF
100
155 TAF
QSA Transfer Supplies
0
2011 Actual 2035 Projected
Fiscal Year Normal Year
15
16. Manage untreated and treated water supplies
Maximize use of existing assets
Integration of desalination supplies
Treatment plant utilization
Cost-effective facility implementation
Optimize utilization of regional water
resources
Coordination with member agency facility
plans
Characterization of member agency demands
16
17. Strategic long range plan for surface water
storage
Characterization of local supply development
Energy use and renewable energy
opportunities
Prioritization of ongoing/new CIP projects
Facility cost/rate implications
17
18. 1
1. Pipeline 6/P3/P4 switch 3
2. Camp Pendleton 4
Desalination 2
3. ESP North County Pump
8
Station 5
4. Twin Oaks Valley WTP 7
Expanded Service Area
5. Crossover Pipeline
6. Mission Trails Flow
Regulatory Structure
7. Carlsbad Desalination
integration
6
8. System Regulatory
Storage
18
19. UWMP Scenarios UWMP Scenarios Lead Supply Facility Facility Sensitivity
Supplies Alternatives Requirements analysis
Demands
•Normal •Verifiable •Baseline •Current Water • P6 versus
Authority CIP P3/P4
Demands mix •Expanded conversion
•Dry Year •Additional Regional •ESP Facilities
•Camp
Demands Planned Desalination •Carlsbad Pendleton 50
Desal MGD or more
•High •Conceptual •Maximize
•MA Verifiable •Additional
Demands Storage
Local Supply Planned and
•Balanced Mix Conceptual
Supply •Current
local
Options Reservoir •Alternative
Reservoir
Operations
Operations
•Other Facilities
to test for
regional
benefits
•Alternative
Demand Paths
19
20. Build from UWMP scenarios
Single/multiple dry years
Limited MWD Supplies
Local supply mix
Master Plan scenario
considerations
Daily demand patterns – peak season
Local supply variability
Hydrology
Climate impacts
Each scenario attempts to
explore an aspect of supply
and demand uncertainty
20
21. Identify alternatives to address performance gaps
◦ Facility constraints
◦ Supply constraints
Initial strategies for crafting Alternatives:
◦ Maximize imported water
◦ Expanded regional desalination
◦ Maximized storage options
◦ Balanced supply options
Test performance of baseline aqueduct system against
Master Plan Scenarios
21
22. Scenario A – Current Trends
◦ Current estimates for supply and demand consistent with UWMP
assumptions
Scenario B – Reduced Imported Supplies, Climate
Change and Lower Local Supply Development
◦ Increased imported water uncertainty, especially in dry years,
coupled with factors that may slow the reduction in demands or
the development of local projects. Presents an important upper
boundary bracketing scenario.
Scenario C – Enhanced Local Resource
Management
◦ Local supply development and demand management is the focus.
Presents an important lower boundary bracketing scenario.
Scenario D – Adjusted Local Supply Development
◦ A limited achievement level (50%) of local supply development and
demand management. Presents a scenario positioned between
Scenarios A and C.
22
23. Master Plan Analysis
Scenarios Alternatives
Existing
Scenario
Aqueduct
A
System
Alt 1
Imported Water
Scenario
Strategy
B
Model Results
Deterministic and Alt 2
Stochastic Max Seawater
Desalination
Scenario
C Alt 3
Max Storage
Operations
Scenario
Alt 4
D
Balanced Supply
Option
23
24. System capacity
Supply reliability
Costs of capital improvement program
Environmental impacts
Energy use and production optimization
Supports WA diversification goals
Improves water quality
Feasibility
Minimizes rate impacts
Maximizes use of existing facilities
24
25. Scenario B1
Higher demands, slow member
agency supply development or
conservation measures Scenario B2
Scenario D
Scenario A2 Adaptive Process
Monitoring
Scenario A1 metrics
Early Actions Mainline demand projections,
Implementation
verifiable member agency
projects and conservation timelines and
phasing
Today Scenario C Risk-based and
Slower growth in demands, more rapid adaptive
member agency supply development or decision-making
conservation measures
Decision Timelines
Near-Term Actions Long-Term Actions
Mid-Term Actions 25
26. With the 2010 UWMP expected demand
forecasts and normal or wet cycle hydrology
shortages are minimal
Carlsbad desalination production is important in
managing shortages in all hydrological cycles
If demands exceed UWMP expected demand
forecasts, developing local or imported supplies
is important for continued reliability
In dry years - greater vulnerably until QSA
supplies are ramped up
Pipeline 6 appears to be beyond the 2035
planning horizon
26
27. Feb 2012: Board workshop
Spring 2012: Second board workshop
Summer 2012: Release draft report to
member agencies
Oct 2012: Release Draft Program EIR
Mar 2013: Board Certify Program EIR and
Accept Final Master Plan Update
27
29. ‣ Inventory GHG sources (facilities, buildings,
fleet)
‣ Estimate emission changes over time,
including new facilities from Master Plan
‣ Identify mitigation actions to reduce GHGs
‣ Document GHG reduction feasibility and
implementation
‣ Serve as significance thresholds for future
actions
‣ Allow for periodic updates
29
30. ‣ Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32)
‣ Requires GHG emission reductions
o 1990 levels by 2020
o 80% below 1990 levels by 2050
‣ CEQA Guideline Revisions (SB 97)
‣ Requires analysis of GHG emissions
‣ Provides comprehensive approach through
development of GHG emission reduction plan
(Climate Action Plan)
‣ Water Authority not required to comply with
AB32
‣ Cannot hinder the State from achieving the goals
‣ Must make CEQA determination on GHG emissions
30
31. ‣ CEQA streamlining for future projects
‣ Can look at the “big” picture through
comprehensive analysis of cumulative
impacts
‣ Provides broad list of mitigation measures
‣ Possible cost savings through energy
efficiency and water conservation
‣ Contributes to regional sustainability goals
‣ Demonstrates leadership within the
community
31
32. Program
EIR
Master Climate
Plan Action Plan
32
33. ‣ Provide Board, agencies, and public with:
o Comprehensive environmental analysis of
Master Plan
o Opportunity for input into the decision-making
process
‣ Develop program-wide mitigation measures
to reduce or eliminate potential impacts
‣ Assist Water Authority and other agencies in
determining future CEQA documents that
may be needed to implement future project
components
‣ Serve as starting point for future site-
specific environmental findings
33
34. Feb 2012: Board workshop
Spring 2012: Second board workshop
Summer 2012: Release draft report to
member agencies
Oct 2012: Release Draft Program EIR
Mar 2013: Board Certify Program EIR and
Accept Final Master Plan Update
34
