1. Planning for Climate Change
Special Water Planning Committee Meeting
January 10, 2013

2. Workshop Agenda
 Introduction of speakers
 Purpose of Climate Action Plan
 Briefing on local climate studies
 Current climate change regulations
 Water Authority’s planning for climate change
 Next steps
2

3. Water Supply and Climate Change
 Potential impacts on supply and demand require
adaptive planning approach
 Legislative and regulatory requirements
 CEQA / AB 32
 Water Authority formed partnerships to enhance
science understanding & collaborate on solutions
 Water Authority 2010 Urban Water Management Plan
 Impacts of climate change on demand and supplies
 Local climate modeling provided by Scripps Institute
3

4. Climate Action Plan as part of
Comprehensive Planning
 FY 2012 and FY 2013 CIP Approved Budget
 Water Facilities Master Plan
 Climate Action Plan
 Water Facilities Master Plan Program EIR
 Conducting all 3 studies provides the Board:
 Comprehensive information to set long term direction
 Full and thorough evaluation of long-term facility needs
and associated environmental impacts
 Comprehensive planning approach is cost effective
4

5. Workshop Agenda
 Introduction of speakers
 Purpose of Climate Action Plan
 Briefing on local climate studies
 Current climate change regulations
 Water Authority’s planning for climate change
 Next steps
5

6. Climate Change: concerns about increased
dryness in Southern California
Dan Cayan
Climate Atmospheric and Physical Oceanography Research Division
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego
Sponsors:
San Diego Foundation
California Energy Commission
NOAA RISA program
6
6

7. Great year-to-year variability in San Diego precipitation
Ranges from ~33% to 280% of average
7

8. and, when Southern California is dry--
Northern California is often dry
and the Colorado River drainage is sometimes dry
8

9. average summer
afternoon temperature
9

10. average summer
afternoon temperature
GFDL A2 1km downscaled to 1km
Hugo Hidalgo Tapash Das Mike Dettinger 10

11. Projected Climate Warming through the 21st Century
• because of greenhouse gas build-up we are committed and are already warming
• amount of warming in future decades depends on greenhouse gas emissions
11

12. California’s Sierra Nevada snowpack
How long will it remain?
Sponsors:
California Energy Commission, California DWR
NOAA RISA program
US Geological Survey Douglas Alden
US Department of Energy Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Installing met station, Lee Vining, CA
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12

13. Substantial Decline of California Spring SnowPack from Projected Climate Warming
high or even higher losses by end of 21st Century depending on how much warming
David Pierce/Dan Cayan Dec 2012
to appear in California Water Plan Updat
See also Pierce and Cayan 2013 J Climate
13

14. Projected patterns of precipitation changes
2090-2099 versus 1980-1999
Globally, dry regions become drier
including the Southwest United States! 14

15. San Diego County Hydrological Modeling Framework
Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) A SIO/SDCWA Project
sponsored by SD Foundation
and CNAP RISA
Hillslope Routing Runoff
(HRR)
Streamflow (cfs)
2,000
0
G M2
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16. Summary
California has a dry, volatile climate. Southern California’s
water supply vulnerable to climate changes and weather extremes.
Warming is already underway and more to come +2ºF by 2050.
Model projections suggest warming may be intensified in summer,
especially in interior areas.
Recent IPCC climate model projections for California precipitation
are scattered, but several show significant drying.
Hydrological model simulations indicate these drying trends,
if they were to occur, would be more accentuated in runoff and
soil moisture.
Frank Gehrke, 16
California Cooperative Snow Surveys, DWR 16
16

17. Workshop Agenda
 Introduction of speakers
 Purpose of Climate Action Plan
 Briefing on local climate studies
 Current climate change regulations
 Water Authority’s planning for climate change
 Next steps
17

18. State Regulatory Context
• Executive Order S-3-05
• Identifies Climate Change as an issue California needs
to address
• 2000 emissions levels by 2010
• 1990 levels by 2020
• 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (from IPCC)
• Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32)
• Requires GHG emission reductions
• 1990 levels by 2020
• CEQA Guidelines Revisions (SB 97)
• Requires analysis of GHG emissions
• Required to make CEQA determination on GHG
emissions
• Comprehensive approach or project-by-project basis
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19. AB 32 Compliance Guidance
 AB 32 states that emissions in 2020 shall be reduced
to 1990 levels
 However, few agencies have accurate data from
1990
 CARB has determined that a 15% reduction from
baseline levels (e.g., 2005-2010) can be used to
comply with AB 32
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20. State & Federal GHG Reduction
Measures
SB 375 Per-capita GHG reductions from passenger vehicles (7%
by 2020; 13% by 2035)
SB X 1-2 California utilities must provide at least 33% of their
electricity from renewable resources by 2020
EO S-1-07 Requires a reduction in the carbon intensity of California
transportation fuels of at least 10% by 2020.
AB 1493 and CAFE Vehicle emissions standards for 2016 and 2025
Cap & Trade Requires participation of large emission generators and
creates a market-based system with an overall emissions
limit for affected sectors
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21. What is Legally Required of the
Water Authority?
 Cannot hinder State from achieving 2020 goals
 Individual projects must undergo CEQA review
 CAP streamlines CEQA analysis for GHG emissions on
future projects
 Water Authority has chosen to prepare a Climate
Action Plan (Section 15183.5)
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22. Workshop Agenda
 Introduction of speakers
 Purpose of Climate Action Plan
 Briefing on local climate studies
 Current climate change regulations
 Water Authority’s planning for climate change
 Next steps
22

23. San Diego County Water Authority
Response to Climate Change
Partnerships Adaptation Mitigation
Collaborate
with entities on
understanding Reduce Reduce
Reduce supply greenhouse
climate change vulnerability to
vulnerability to
impacts and climate change gas emissions
climate change to comply with
ways to impacts
impacts
mitigate and AB 32 / CEQA
adapt
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24. San Diego County Water Authority
Response to Climate Change
Partnerships Adaptation Mitigation
Collaborate
with entities on
Reduce
understanding Reduce supply
greenhouse
climate change vulnerability to
gas emissions
impacts and climate change
to comply with
ways to impacts
AB 32 / CEQA
mitigate and
adapt
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25. Examples of Partnerships in Research
 Scripps Institution of Oceanography/
San Diego Foundation
 Currently collaborating to identify impacts
to local reservoir yield due to climate
change
Vista Irrigation District
 Water Utility Climate Alliance Lake Henshaw
 Ten utilities that collaborate on climate
change issues affecting drinking water
 California Urban Water Agencies
 Ten major urban water agencies
responsible for about two-thirds of
California’s drinking water supply
www.wucaonline.org
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26. San Diego County Water Authority
Response to Climate Change
Partnerships Adaptation Mitigation
Collaborate
with entities on
Reduce
understanding Reduce supply
greenhouse
climate change vulnerability to
gas emissions
impacts and climate change
to comply with
ways to impacts
AB 32 / CEQA
mitigate and
adapt
26

27. Climate Change Response Incorporated
throughout SDCWA Activities
 Regional Supply Planning
 Facility Master Planning
 Environmental Planning
(Climate Action Plan)
Water Authority Solar Panels
 Capital Improvement
Program
 Operations
San Vicente Dam Raise 27

28. Regional Supply Planning
Climate Adaptation Process
Understanding
Understanding climate science and climate model projections
Assess
Assess water system vulnerabilities to potential climate changes
Plan
Incorporate climate change into water utility planning
Implement
Implement adaptation strategies
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29. Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change
(Example)
Area of Concern
• Changes in rainfall and runoff patterns
Potential Impact on Water Resources
• Reduced reservoir yield
• Increased frequency and intensity of droughts
Primary Supplies Affected
• Imported
• Local Groundwater and Surface Waters
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30. SDCWA 2010 Urban Water Management Plan
Incorporating Uncertainty into Supply Planning
1. Analyzed climate change impact on water demands
2. Conducted traditional scenario planning process
 Identify “no regret” strategies to manage uncertainties
and adapt to climate change
Supply Uncertainties Project
SWP Reliability
Climate Change Development
Risks
Recurring
Droughts Growth
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31. Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Demand
 SIO provided downscaled temperature and precipitation
projections for the San Diego region
 Substituted downscaled weather data into demand model
Average Results from Alternative
 Analysis resulted in slight Climate Scenarios
increase in demand over
Sector Difference from 2035
UWMP planning horizon Baseline Demand
(2035) Overall +1.2%
 Appears that any significant Single Family +1.9%
increase in water demand Multifamily +0.2%
will occur beyond 2035 Non-Residential +0.4%
Agricultural +3.3%
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32. SDCWA 2010 UWMP – Major Steps in
Scenario Planning Process
Projected Uncertainty Potential Key Tracking
Resources Scenarios Strategies Metrics
Mix • Based on • Programs and • Metrics to track
• Develop in critical Projects implementation
coordination uncertainties • Manage of resource mix
with member • Risk uncertainties and need for
agencies assessment of • Fill potential additional
resources mix “supply gap” strategies
• Identify
“supply gap”
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33. Implement Resource Strategies to Manage
Uncertainties and Adapt to Climate Change
 Diversify sources of supply
 Develop local projects not vulnerable to climate
change
 Promote conservation
 Increase storage capacity to capture variable
runoff
San Vicente Dam Raise Water Efficient Plantings Water Recycling
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34. San Diego County Water Authority
Response to Climate Change
Partnerships Adaptation Mitigation
Collaborate
with entities on Reduce
understanding Reduce supply greenhouse
climate change vulnerability to gas emissions
impacts and climate change to comply with
ways to impacts AB 32 / CEQA
mitigate and
adapt
34

35. San Diego County Water Authority
Mitigation Strategies
 The Climate Action Plan will be developed in
conjunction with the 2013 Master Plan Update
 Purpose: To proactively address the issue of climate
change as it relates to activities within the Water
Authority
 The Water Authority is taking action to reduce our
greenhouse gas emissions
Master Plan Climate Action
Plan
Identify future facilities needed Will add new facilities to
and associated emissions baseline emissions
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36. CAP Meets Legal Requirements
 Required for developing a “qualified greenhouse gas
reduction plan” under CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5
 Baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory
 Estimate of future emissions based on anticipated growth
(Master Plan projects and operations)
 Defines GHG reduction targets
 Strategies that are feasible and meet reduction targets
 Monitoring program and flexibility to revise assumptions and
estimates as new/better data becomes available
 In order to qualify as a GHG reduction plan, specific
requirements for compliance
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37. Benefits of Comprehensive Planning
Climate Action Plan (CAP):
• CEQA streamlining for future projects
• Can look at the “big” picture through comprehensive
analysis of cumulative impacts
• Provides broad list of mitigation measures
• Possible cost savings through energy efficiency and
water conservation
• Contributes to regional sustainability goals
• Demonstrates leadership within the community
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38. Water Authority’s Climate Action Plan
• Inventory GHG sources (facilities, buildings, fleet)
• Estimate emission changes over time, including new
facilities from Master Plan
• Establish required targets for compliance
• Identify mitigation actions to reduce GHGs
• Document GHG reduction measures on feasibility, cost
and implementation
• Allow for periodic updates
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39. CAP Development
• Climate Action Plan will comply with all mandated GHG
reduction target requirements and timelines set forth
in AB 32 and CEQA
• 1990 levels by 2020 (15% reduction from baseline)
• Uncertainty regarding regulatory requirements beyond
2020
• CAP will be updated every 5 years, concurrent with
Master Plan and UWMP
• Address changes in future updates
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40. Summary of Ongoing Activities
SDCWA Response to Climate Change
Partnerships Adaptation Mitigation
Scripps Institution
Implement resource
of Oceanography
strategies to
manage supply Complete 2013
The San Diego uncertainties Climate Action Plan
Foundation and implement
cost-effective
Water Utility Climate Update plans with mitigation actions
Alliance latest research on to reduce GHG
impacts and emissions
California Urban adaptation
Water Agencies (2015 UWMP)
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41. Timeline of Next Steps
Jan. 10, 2013 Jan. 24, 2012 Feb. 28, 2013
• Special Water Planning • Water Planning • Water Planning
Committee: Workshop on Committee: Information Committee: Information
Climate Change item on status of Master item on status of Master
Plan and related activities Plan and related activities
Feb. 2013 Mar. 14, 2013 Mar. 2013
• Member Agency TAC mtg. • Special Water Planning • Member Agency TAC
• Issue Notice of Committee: Workshop on meeting
Preparation (NOP) to Master Plan
begin CEQA process
Mar./Apr. 2013 Jul. to Sep. 2013 Nov. 2013
• Water Planning Release of Draft Program Water Planning
Committee: Selection of EIR, CAP and draft Master Committee: Final
Master Plan preferred Plan for 45-day review and Program EIR certification
alternative & CAP comment period and approval of Master
approach Plan and CAP
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