More Related Content Similar to Workforce Planning (20) Workforce Planning11. Talent: The skills, knowledge, predisposition and ability to undertake required activities including decision making.4 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 14. Establish a workforce planning team of knowledgeable employees from different functional areas and levels. 30. Environmental Scanning Cost and availability of capital Government Regulations Labour availability Competition Technology Supplier power Globalization Customer expectations 8 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 34. Assessing – describe the impact of the monitored trend on the organization, make a judgment of the probability of outcomes.9 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 36. Delphi Technique –forecasts and judgments of a group of experts are solicited and summarized to determine the future of employment. 38. Scenario Planning –creating future scenarios that differ radically from those created by extrapolation of present trends10 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 46. What are the HR implications?12 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 50. Impact of environmental and organizational variables on the accuracy and time period of estimates derived from future estimates of HR demand and supply 51. Various stages in the process of determining net HR requirements14 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 55. Designated Group Receive the most discrimination within organizations 18 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 56. 5 Stages of the Forecasting Process 19 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 73. Time Horizons Medium-run – 2 - 5 years Long-run – 5 or more years Current – up to 1 year Short-run – 1 - 2 years 22 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 75. Determine NET HR Requirements External supply requirements = replacement + change supply components Change supply = hiring to increase (or decrease) the overall staffing level Replacement supply = hiring to replace all normal losses External supply = current workforce # x (replacement % per year + change % per year) 24 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 76. Example External supply = current workforce x (replacement % per yr + change % per yr) Surplus = 1000 x (4 % per year (0.04) + 2 % per year (0.02) 40 + 20 = 60 Need for 60 employees Deficit = 1000 x (4% per year (0.04) + -7% per year (-0.03) 40 + -70 = -30 Need to reduce by 30 employees 25 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 77. Your Turn External supply = current workforce x (replacement % per yr + change % per yr) Surplus = 10,000 x (3.5 % per year (0.035) + 3 % per year (0.03) + = Need to hire employees Deficit = 10,000 x (6% per year (0.06) + -8% per year (-0.08) + = Need to reduce by employees 26 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 79. Demand exceeds the current resources available in the organization's workforce27 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 84. HR Demand Projected human resources requirement 30 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 86. Effective Trend Analysis Five steps to conducting an effective index/trend analysis: Select the appropriate business index Track the index over time Track the total number of employees over time Calculate the average ratio of the business index to the total number of employees E.g. employee requirement ratio - the relationship between the business index and the demand for labour Calculate the Forecasted Demand for Labour 32 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 88. Steps for Delphi Technique Sequential surveys with feedback on opinions in previous rounds 34 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 89. Steps for the Nominal Group Technique Long-run forecasting technique utilizing expert assessments 35 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 91. HR Budgets: Staffing Table 37 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 92. Scenario Forecasts Projections of future demand for human resources based on differing assumptions about future events. Optimistic Sales Normal Pessimistic Now T + 2 Years T + 1 Year T + 3 Years Time 38 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 94. Linearity is the relationship between the independent and dependent variables39 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 95. Regression Analysis Y = dependent variable (HR demand) A = constant (Y intercept) B = slope of linear relationship between X and Y X = independent variable (e.g. level of sales) B Y – Dependent Variable A X – Independent Variable 40 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 96. Regression Prediction Y = A + BX Y = dependent variable (HR demand) A = constant (Y intercept) B = slope of linear relationship between X and Y X = independent variable (e.g. level of sales) Where 41 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 97. ExerciseData X Sales ($ Millions) 2.0 3.5 4.5 6.0 7.0 Y # of Marketing Personnel 20 32 42 55 66 5 Sets of observations 42 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 98. Exercise Step 1Calculate XY, X2, average X and average Y X Sales ($ Millions) 2.0 2.5 3.5 5.0 6.5 19.5 Y # of Employees 25 28 30 38 54 175 XY 50 70 105 190 351 766 X2 4.00 6.25 12.25 25.00 42.25 89.75 Average X = 19.5/5 = 3.9 Average Y = 175/5 = 35 N = 5 43 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 99. Exercise Step 2Calculate the value of B (slope of the linear relationship between X and Y) XY 50 70 105 190 351 766 X2 4.00 6.25 12.25 25.00 42.25 89.75 Average X = 3.9 N = 5 Average Y = 35 44 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 100. Exercise Step 3Calculate A (constant or intercept) Average X = 3.9 Average Y = 35 B = 6.09 IF Y = A + BX Then AND A = 35 – (6.09)(3.9) A = 11.23 45 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 101. Exercise Step 4Determine the regression prediction equation Y = A + BX Whew! So what? Independent causal variable X (e.g., sales) AND Dependent variable Y (e.g., predicted # of personnel) Even if sales are zero the value for A is 11.23 (round to 11.0) or 11 persons. For every increase unit ($1 Million) sales (X) there is a predicted increase of 6.09 staff (Y) associated with that change. A = 11.23 B = 6.09 X = Dependent Variable Y = 11.23 + (6.09)(X) 46 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 102. Exercise Step 5Calculate predicted HR demand (Y) by inserting values for X Predict the HR demand for personnel at $8 million and $10 million. Y = A + BX Y = A + BX Y = A + BX $10 million $8 million A = 11.23 A = 11.23 A = 11.23 B = 6.09 B = 6.09 B = 6.09 X = Sales ($M) X = 8 X = 10 Y= 11.23 + (6.09)(X) Y = 11.23 + (6.09)(8) Y = 59.99 60 Staff required Y = 11.23 + (6.09)(10) Y = 72.18 72/73 Staff required 47 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 117. Process of finding employee for key managerial positionsLong-term succession Training and work experience to enable individuals to assume higher-level job appointments in the future Short-term emergency replacement Individuals who have quit, been terminated due to performance problems, have died, and so on 53 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 118. Replacement Analysis Improve effectively filling vacancies Performance 1Outstanding 2Above average 3Average/good 4Below Average 5 Unacceptable Readiness AReady now BReady in 1 year CReady in 2 years DNot suitable for this job 54 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 121. Determines the likelihood that an individual will display movement behaviours56 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 122. Sample Markov Matrix* *Adapted from Strategic Human Resources Planning, Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010. 57 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 125. Movement patterns and expected duration in specified jobs associated with patterns of career progression 126. Number and percentage of starters at a particular job who target a future job within a specified time58 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 128. Determine the optimal supply mix to minimize costs or other constraints.59 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 129. Movement Patterns Remain in current job Promotion to higher job classification Lateral move Exit from a job (e.g., termination, layoff, voluntary exit) Demotion 60 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 145. 50 – level 9*Adapted from Strategic Human Resources Planning, Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010. 62 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 146. Exercise Start at the top with the most senior positions since most movement in organizations is up due to promotions and replacements. 63 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 147. Exercise Movement analysis has identified this year’s need to fill 68 vacancies. 167 moves will be required because of promotion from within. 64 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 149. Exercise* Start at the top and work your way down *Adapted from Strategic Human Resources Planning, Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010. 66 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 151. Retention programs are vital to keeping experienced, high-performers67 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 164. Increased turnover due to the “follow-me” effect68 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 169. Offering more flexible and attractive work arrangements) -- flextime, telecommuting, cafeteria-style benefits plans 186. Reasons for Succession Management Provide opportunities for high-potentials Identify replacement needs Increase the talent pool of promotable employees Contribute to implementing strategic business plans Help individuals realize their career plans Tap the potential for intellectual capital Encourage the advancement of diverse groups Cope with the effects of voluntary separation programs Decide which workers can be terminated Cope with the effects of downsizing Reduce headcount to essential strategically important jobs only 74 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 189. Using environmental scanning, managers try to predict where the organization will be in three to five to ten years76 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 190. Step 2Identify the Skills and Competencies Job-Based Approach Competency-Based Approach 77 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 196. Types of Competencies Core competencies Role or specific competencies Unique or distinctive competencies 79 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 206. Leadership Development Activities* * From Strategic Human Resource Planning, Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010. 82 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 213. HR metrics can be used to help monitor succession management84 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 218. Greater number involved in the mentoring process85 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 226. Increased # of manager as talent developers86 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved 227. Contact Information Wayne Rawcliffe Senga Consulting Inc. 604.909.3840 205, 1275 West 6th Avenue Vancouver, BC V6H 1A6 wayne@senga.ca www.senga.ca 87 Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved