- The Congressional Budget Office presentation discusses the challenges facing the US economy and federal budget, including a slow recovery dampened by financial fragility and restrained household spending. - Under current policies, the budget deficit is projected to rise significantly as a percentage of GDP due to increasing costs of programs like Social Security and Medicare not being offset by defense spending cuts. - Significant changes will be needed to taxes or direct federal spending to balance the budget by 2020 without changing current policies.

1. Congressional Budget Office Presentation to the National Association for Business Economics Fiscal Policy Choices March 8, 2010 Douglas W. Elmendorf Director

3. Discuss a number of challenges to those estimates.

5. During a slump in economic activity, consumers defer purchases, and businesses postpone capital spending.

6. Once demand picks up, spending and employment can accelerate rapidly.

7. The current recovery will be dampened by several factors:

8. Continuing fragility of some financial markets and institutions.

9. Restrained increase in household spending.

11. 5 Estimated Budgetary Effects of ARRA Billions of Dollars

12. 6 Effect of ARRA on the Output Gap Gap Between Actual and Potential GDP as Percentage of Potential GDP Without Stimulus Legislation

13. 7 The Budget Deficit or Surplus Percentage of GDP

14. Unemployment Rate Percent 8

15. Budget Deficit or Surplus Percentage of GDP With Tax Cuts Extended and AMT Indexed 9

16. 10 CBO’s Estimate of the President’s Budget, 2011-2020 Note: * = Less than $0.05 trillion.

17. Rising Debt Burden Percentage of GDP 11

19. Crowdingout of saving and investment lowers future output and income relative to what would otherwise occur.

20. The ability of the government to respond to future needs is reduced.

23. Forecasts of budget and economic outcomes are highly uncertain. We believe that our projection balances the risks.

25. 16 Federal Revenues, 1970 to 2020 Percentage of GDP Note: Extending certain tax provisions enacted in 2001 and 2003 would also increase outlays for refundable tax credits. However, the outlay effect is shown here in the revenue line.

26. 17 Components of the Federal Budget Note: Figures are shown net of offsetting receipts where relevant.

27. Outlays for Some Key Federal Programs Will Exceed Total Federal Revenues Under “Current Policy” Percentage of GDP 18 Note: Extending certain tax provisions enacted in 2001 and 2003 would also increase outlays for refundable tax credits. However, the outlay effect is shown here in the revenue line.

28. 19 If the Goal is to Balance the Budget in 2020

30. In the past several decades, the country paid for increases in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending through cuts in defense spending relative to the size of the economy. That approach is not feasible in the future. Instead, significant changes will be needed in taxes or spending directly visible to many Americans.