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North American
 Online Travel Report 2009
- Online Travel Agent Focus -
EyeforTravel Research
    7-9 Fashion Street
    London
    E1 6PX
    UK

    For queries contact:
    amy@eyefortravel.com
    www.eyefortravelresearch.com

    EyeforTravel Ltd, April 2009




2
                         © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
North America Online Travel Report 2009




                                                                               Table of Contents
Table of Contents

      List of Figures                                                  4
      Methodology                                                      7
      Executive Summary                                               11

      Chapter 1: North American Travel Market Analysis                15

North American Travel Market Overview                                 15
US vs. Canada Travel Market Analysis                                  35
US Travel Market Analysis                                             43
Canadian Travel Market Analysis                                       52

      Chapter 2: North American Online Travel Agent Market Analysis   61

North American Online Travel Agent Market Overview                    61
US Online Travel Agent Market Analysis                                67
Canadian Online Travel Agent Market Analysis                          78




                                                                           3
                    © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
List of Figures



    List of Figures
    Figure 1.1:    North America Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F                                   15
    Figure 1.2:    North America Volume of Travel - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F             15
    Figure 1.3:    North America Volume of Domestic Travel, 2002-2012F                                16
    Figure 1.4:    North America Volume of Outbound Travel, 2002-2012F                                16
    Figure 1.5:    North America Travel Market Gross Value, 2002-2012F                                17
    Figure 1.6:    Spend per Trip in US$ (North America), 2002-2012F                                  17
    Figure 1.7:    North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F                  18
    Figure 1.8:    North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                          18
    Figure 1.9:    North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F                    19
    Figure 1.10:   North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F                  20
    Figure 1.11:   North American Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F            20
    Figure 1.12:   Online Penetration of the North American Travel Market, 2002-2012F                 21
    Figure 1.13:   Value of North American Travel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F             22
    Figure 1.14:   Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2008                  23
    Figure 1.15:   Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2002-2012F            23
    Figure 1.16:   North American Online Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F     24
    Figure 1.17:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Airline Market, 2002-2012F     25
    Figure 1.18:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Hotel Market, 2002-2012F       25
    Figure 1.19:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Car Rental Market, 2002-2012   25
    Figure 1.20:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Bus Market, 2002-2012F         26
    Figure 1.21:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Cruise Market, 2002-2012F      26
    Figure 1.22:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Railway Market, 2002-2012F     26
    Figure 1.23:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Package Market, 2002-2012F     27
    Figure 1.24:   Value of the North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F      27
    Figure 1.25:   North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008                     28
    Figure 1.26:   North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F               28
    Figure 1.27:   North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%),
                   2002-2012F                                                                         29
    Figure 1.28:   Spend per Trip (North America Averages) - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F        29
    Figure 1.29:   North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F        30
    Figure 1.30:   North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008              31
    Figure 1.31:   Value of the North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound,
                   2002-2012F                                                                         31
    Figure 1.32:   North American Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%),
                   2002-2012F                                                                         31
    Figure 1.33:   North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F    32
    Figure 1.34:   North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008          33
    Figure 1.35:   North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown Values (US$),
                   2002-2012F                                                                         33
    Figure 1.36:   North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F    34
    Figure 1.37:   North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008          34
    Figure 1.38:   North American Outbound Online Travel Market Value - Sector Breakdown (US$),
                   2002-2012F                                                                         34
    Figure 1.39:   US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F                                   35
    Figure 1.40:   US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel (%), 2002-2012F                               35
    Figure 1.41:   US Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F                                            36
    Figure 1.42:   US Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F                                            37
    Figure 1.43:   Canada Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F                                        37
    Figure 1.44:   Canada Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F                                        37
    Figure 1.45:   Value of the North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F              38
    Figure 1.46:   North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F                       39
    Figure 1.47:   Average Spend per Person per Trip - US and Canada, 2002-2012F                      39
    Figure 1.48:   North American Online Travel Market - US vs.Canada (%), 2002-2012F                 40
    Figure 1.49:   Value of the North American Online Travel Market, US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F        40
    Figure 1.50:   Online Penetration Comparison of the US and Canadian Gross Travel Markets,
                   2002-2012F                                                                         41
    Figure 1.51:   Online Penetration of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F                       42




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                           © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
North America Online Travel Report 2009




                                                                                                               List of Figures
Figure 1.52:   Online Penetration of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F                     42
Figure 1.53:   Value of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F                                        43
Figure 1.54:   Value of the US Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F                                       43
Figure 1.55:   US Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F                               44
Figure 1.56:   Value of US Gross Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F                    45
Figure 1.57:   Outbound Travel Destination Trends, 2002-2012F                                         46
Figure 1.58:   Value of US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F                   46
Figure 1.59:   US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F                        47
Figure 1.60:   Online Penetration Comparison of US Domestic and Outbound Travel Markets,
               2002-2012F                                                                             47
Figure 1.61:   US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F                                    48
Figure 1.62:   US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                                          49
Figure 1.63:   US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F                                  49
Figure 1.64:   US Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F                                  49
Figure 1.65:   US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F                             50
Figure 1.66:   US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                                   50
Figure 1.67:   US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F                           51
Figure 1.68:   US Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F                           51
Figure 1.69:   Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F                                                  51
Figure 1.70:   Value of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F                                  52
Figure 1.71:   Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F                         53
Figure 1.72:   Value of the Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F                53
Figure 1.73:   Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F                                 54
Figure 1.74:   Canadian Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F                  55
Figure 1.75:   Online Penetration Comparison of Domestic and Outbound Canadian Travel Market,
               2002-2012F                                                                             55
Figure 1.76:   Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market – Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F         56
Figure 1.77:   Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F                              57
Figure 1.78:   Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                                    57
Figure 1.79:   Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F                          58
Figure 1.80:   Canadian Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F                            58
Figure 1.81:   Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F                       59
Figure 1.82:   Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                             59
Figure 1.83:   Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F                                                  60
Figure 1.84:   Canadian Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F                     60
Figure 1.85:   Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F                   60
Figure 2.1:    North American Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%),
               2002-2012F                                                                             61
Figure 2.2:    Value of the North American Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution,
               2002-2012F                                                                             61
Figure 2.3:    Value of the North American Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million)
               - Direct vs. Indirect, 2008                                                            62
Figure 2.4:    North American Online Travel Agent Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F           63
Figure 2.5:    Value of the North American Online Travel Agent Market - Sector Breakdown,
               2002-2012F                                                                             63
Figure 2.6:    US Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F                              64
Figure 2.7:    Canadian Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F                        64
Figure 2.8:    North American Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value,
               2002-2012F                                                                             65
Figure 2.9:    North American Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value,
               2002-2012F                                                                             65
Figure 2.10:   North American Online Car Rental Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value,
               2002-2012F                                                                             66
Figure 2.11:   North American Online Bus Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F      66
Figure 2.12:   North American Online Cruise Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-
               2012F                                                                                  66
Figure 2.13:   North American Online Rail Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F
                                                                                                      67
Figure 2.14:   North American Online Package Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-
               2012F                                                                                  67




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                       © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
List of Figures



    Figure 2.15:   Value of the US Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F    68
    Figure 2.16:   Value of the US Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million) -
                   Direct vs. Indirect, 2008                                                              69
    Figure 2.17:   US Online Travel Agent Market Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                               69
    Figure 2.18:   US Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F                 71
    Figure 2.19:   Value of the US Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F        71
    Figure 2.20:   US Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F                 72
    Figure 2.21:   Value of the US Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F        72
    Figure 2.22:   Indirect US Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F              73
    Figure 2.23:   Value of the Indirect US Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-
                   2012F                                                                                  73
    Figure 2.24:   Indirect US Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F                74
    Figure 2.25:   Value of the Indirect US Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F       74
    Figure 2.26:   Indirect US Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F           75
    Figure 2.27:   Value of the Indirect US Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-
                   2012F                                                                                  75
    Figure 2.28:   Indirect US Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F               76
    Figure 2.29:   Value of the Indirect US Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F      76
    Figure 2.30:   Indirect US Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F              77
    Figure 2.31:   Value of the Indirect US Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-
                   2012F                                                                                  77
    Figure 2.32:   Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-
                   2012F                                                                                  78
    Figure 2.33:   Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million) - Direct
                   vs. Indirect, 2008                                                                     79
    Figure 2.34:   Canadian Online Travel Agent Market Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                         79
    Figure 2.35:   Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F           81
    Figure 2.36:   Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market Y-o-Y Growth, Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-
                   2012F                                                                                  81
    Figure 2.37:   Canadian Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F           82
    Figure 2.38:   Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market Y-o-Y Growth - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-
                   2012F                                                                                  82
    Figure 2.39:   Indirect Canadian Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F        83
    Figure 2.40:   Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-
                   2012F                                                                                  83
    Figure 2.41:   Indirect Canadian Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F          84
    Figure 2.42:   Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-
                   2012F                                                                                  85
    Figure 2.43:   Indirect Canadian Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-
                   2012F                                                                                  85
    Figure 2.44:   Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound,
                   2002-2012F                                                                             86
    Figure 2.45:   Indirect Canadian Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F         87
    Figure 2.46:   Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-
                   2012F                                                                                  87
    Figure 2.47:   Indirect Canadian Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F        88
    Figure 2.48:   Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound,
                   2002-2012F                                                                             88




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                           © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary
                    North America Online Travel Report 2009



Executive Summary
> North American Travel Market Overview
2009 to be the first year this decade that a decline in travel expenditure is
expected in the region

The value of the North American travel market reached an estimated US$389,376 million
in 2008 and a further 16% increase in volume is expect by 2012, but growth has slowed.
2009 is expected to be the first year this decade for a decline in the total value of travel
expenditure and we forecast a recovery in 2010.

Fastest growth in Hotel and Cruise sectors

Airlines continue to account for the largest proportion of travel spend, followed by Hotels.
In 2008 these sectors accounted for 35% and 25% of the total market respectively. Fastest
growth has been in the Hotel and Cruise sectors.

Online penetration of North American travel market reaches 35%

Distribution trends within the North American market reveal some particularly interesting
patterns. Whilst offline channels continue to account for the majority of travel spend
online channel have been rapidly gaining share. In 2008 the online penetration of the
North American travel market reached about 35% of the value. By 2012 we are expecting
almost half of travel expenditure to be online. Growth rates of the online channel are
expected to be lower than previous years but between 2008 and 2012 a total growth in
value of almost 50% is forecast. The online travel market by 2012 is predicted to reach
a value of US$201,382 million. That is an additional US$57,498 million annually to be
circulated online by the end of 2012.

All growth is online

While the gross travel market experiences a relatively stagnant period, amongst this,
the online travel market is showing very healthy growth and continuing to erode offline
share. This illustrates the growing importance of online channels and the resilience to the
economic downturn.

The Airline sector dominates the online travel market (56%) and online expenditure on
Airline products reached US$75,964 million in 2008. The value of the online travel market
is forecast to grow in value by 44% between 2008 and 2012.

The Hotel sector accounts for 32% of the total online travel market and US$42,831 million
in 2008. Growth by 2012 is forecast to be up by a value of over 50%. The Car Rental sector
is the next largest sector accounting for 7.7% and a value of US$10,389 million (2008).




                                                                                               11
                       © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary



     Growth in the value of the outbound travel market has been higher than the domestic
     travel market, but in 2009 a decline of 4.8% is expected in the outbound market for the
     first time. Good recovery is forecast for 2010.

     Domestic travel accounts for around 64% of the total online travel market and outbound
     36%. Outbound travel products for North American consumers have performed well
     online and increased in share from 28% in 2002. From 2010 we expect grow in both
     domestic and outbound online markets to hit double digit figures again.

     Canada increases it significance in the North American travel market but US spend
     more per trip

     Canadian travellers accounted for 9.4% of total North American travel trips in 2002 and
     by 2012 we expect this to increase to 11.3%. Canada has out performed the US from a
     volume growth perspective. Canada is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2009, while the US
     experiences a decline of around 1%.

     In value terms, the US contributes 90% to the North American market and this is expected
     to remain relatively consistent during the review period in this report. US travellers have
     a higher spend per trip than Canadian travellers.

     US online travel market valued at US$123,346 million in 2008

     The US accounts for 91% of the total North American online travel market. The US online
     travel market reached an estimated value of US$123,346 million in 2008 and Canada
     US$12,252 million (CAD $12,869 million). The US online market is slightly more advanced
     than Canada but penetration is relatively similar. 35.2% of US travel expenditure was
     online in 2008 against a 31.5% penetration for Canada. By 2012 we forecast 44.8% of all
     US travel expenditure to be online and 42% of Canadian.

     A continuously changing travel distribution landscape

     The contrast between the performances of online and offline channels is enormous.
     Online channels have been remarkably productive and growth rates have remained in
     double digit figures for every year reviewed in the report – with the exception of 2009
     when annual growth is expected to fall to a level of 6.3% (still well above growth levels
     for the offline market for the entire period). Put alongside offline productivity, the 5.2%
     decline in the offline market for 2009 makes a very strong statement. The online channels
     certainly now seem strong despite times of instability.

     US outbound travel market is growing

     Just under 70% of US travel expenditure is currently on domestic travel. Outbound travel is
     growing well and at higher rates than the more mature domestic market. 2009 is however
     expected to result in an estimated 4.8% decline. Mexico and Canada are receiving the
     most outbound travellers, followed by the UK. Growth has been strongest in Germany




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                           © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary
                    North America Online Travel Report 2009



and Japan. A slightly higher proportion of domestic travel is bought online in comparison
to outbound travel, but only marginally.

Canadian travel market reaches US$38,869 million (CAD $40,825 million) in 2008

By 2012 the Canadian travel market is expected to be 73% larger in size than it was in 2002.
The Canadian market is very different from the US in that outbound travel accounts for
the majority of the Canadian travel market. In 2008 outbound travel contributed around
67% to the total Canadian travel market. Annual growth has generally been higher for
outbound travel and a 5.5% CAGR is expected for the 2007-2012 review period.

Canadian online travel market valued at US$1,986 million (2008)

Online channels are also becoming increasingly significant for the Canadian travel
market. Online penetration has jumped from 11% in 2002 to around 32% in 2008. Growth
is expected to slow but continue to expand and penetrate around 42% of the market by
2012. The online travel market is divided fairly evenly between domestic and outbound
markets, despite the domination of the outbound segment in the gross market. The
domestic market has a higher online penetration and when in 2012 we forecast that
60% of domestic travel will be purchased online, 33% of the outbound segment will be
online. Growth online for both has been remarkable though. Airline products make up a
significant 61% of the Canadian online travel market and the data reveals that there is a
lot of room for growth for some of the travel sectors.


> Online Travel Agents Landscape

Revenue from Direct distribution to the North American market growing in most
sectors

Increasing Direct distribution has become the trend for most travel sectors in the North
American market. OTAs have as a result gradually lost their share of the online market.
In 2002 OTAs generated around 47% of online revenue from North American travel
consumers and in 2008 this reduced to 35%. By 2012 this is expected to reduce further
to 31%. In value terms, the Indirect market has grown in size alongside growing online
markets in general and a 17.5% CAGR was calculated for the 2002-2007 review period.
In 2008 the value of the Indirect market reached US$47,841 million. So growth has been
healthy for the OTA sector but we do forecast the biggest dip for the market in 2009; 1.9%
growth is expected for the Indirect market and 8.4% growth for Direct channels. In 2010
we expect to see good growth return and forecast a 9% growth for that year.

Airline products dominate OTA revenue

Airline products make up the majority of OTA revenue and accounted for around 52%
in 2008. This is largely accounted for the sheer size of the online Airline market. Hotel
products are also very dominant. Expenditure on Bus, Rail and Package products is mainly




                                                                                               13
                       © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary



     channelled direct to suppliers. Nevertheless, these sectors have edged up their share in
     OTA revenues marginally and have as a consequence eroded some of the Airline share.
     The share of OTAs in the Canadian market is more pronounced that in the US. In 2008
     25% of the Canadian online market was Indirect and 36% of the US market.




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Online Travel Agent Focus North America 2009

  • 1. North American Online Travel Report 2009 - Online Travel Agent Focus -
  • 2. EyeforTravel Research 7-9 Fashion Street London E1 6PX UK For queries contact: amy@eyefortravel.com www.eyefortravelresearch.com EyeforTravel Ltd, April 2009 2 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 3. North America Online Travel Report 2009 Table of Contents Table of Contents List of Figures 4 Methodology 7 Executive Summary 11 Chapter 1: North American Travel Market Analysis 15 North American Travel Market Overview 15 US vs. Canada Travel Market Analysis 35 US Travel Market Analysis 43 Canadian Travel Market Analysis 52 Chapter 2: North American Online Travel Agent Market Analysis 61 North American Online Travel Agent Market Overview 61 US Online Travel Agent Market Analysis 67 Canadian Online Travel Agent Market Analysis 78 3 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 4. List of Figures List of Figures Figure 1.1: North America Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F 15 Figure 1.2: North America Volume of Travel - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 15 Figure 1.3: North America Volume of Domestic Travel, 2002-2012F 16 Figure 1.4: North America Volume of Outbound Travel, 2002-2012F 16 Figure 1.5: North America Travel Market Gross Value, 2002-2012F 17 Figure 1.6: Spend per Trip in US$ (North America), 2002-2012F 17 Figure 1.7: North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F 18 Figure 1.8: North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 18 Figure 1.9: North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 19 Figure 1.10: North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F 20 Figure 1.11: North American Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F 20 Figure 1.12: Online Penetration of the North American Travel Market, 2002-2012F 21 Figure 1.13: Value of North American Travel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F 22 Figure 1.14: Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2008 23 Figure 1.15: Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2002-2012F 23 Figure 1.16: North American Online Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F 24 Figure 1.17: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Airline Market, 2002-2012F 25 Figure 1.18: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Hotel Market, 2002-2012F 25 Figure 1.19: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Car Rental Market, 2002-2012 25 Figure 1.20: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Bus Market, 2002-2012F 26 Figure 1.21: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Cruise Market, 2002-2012F 26 Figure 1.22: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Railway Market, 2002-2012F 26 Figure 1.23: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Package Market, 2002-2012F 27 Figure 1.24: Value of the North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 27 Figure 1.25: North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008 28 Figure 1.26: North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 28 Figure 1.27: North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 29 Figure 1.28: Spend per Trip (North America Averages) - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 29 Figure 1.29: North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 30 Figure 1.30: North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008 31 Figure 1.31: Value of the North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 31 Figure 1.32: North American Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 31 Figure 1.33: North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 32 Figure 1.34: North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 33 Figure 1.35: North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown Values (US$), 2002-2012F 33 Figure 1.36: North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 34 Figure 1.37: North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 34 Figure 1.38: North American Outbound Online Travel Market Value - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F 34 Figure 1.39: US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F 35 Figure 1.40: US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel (%), 2002-2012F 35 Figure 1.41: US Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F 36 Figure 1.42: US Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F 37 Figure 1.43: Canada Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F 37 Figure 1.44: Canada Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F 37 Figure 1.45: Value of the North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F 38 Figure 1.46: North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F 39 Figure 1.47: Average Spend per Person per Trip - US and Canada, 2002-2012F 39 Figure 1.48: North American Online Travel Market - US vs.Canada (%), 2002-2012F 40 Figure 1.49: Value of the North American Online Travel Market, US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F 40 Figure 1.50: Online Penetration Comparison of the US and Canadian Gross Travel Markets, 2002-2012F 41 Figure 1.51: Online Penetration of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F 42 4 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 5. North America Online Travel Report 2009 List of Figures Figure 1.52: Online Penetration of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F 42 Figure 1.53: Value of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F 43 Figure 1.54: Value of the US Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F 43 Figure 1.55: US Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 44 Figure 1.56: Value of US Gross Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 45 Figure 1.57: Outbound Travel Destination Trends, 2002-2012F 46 Figure 1.58: Value of US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 46 Figure 1.59: US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 47 Figure 1.60: Online Penetration Comparison of US Domestic and Outbound Travel Markets, 2002-2012F 47 Figure 1.61: US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 48 Figure 1.62: US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 49 Figure 1.63: US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F 49 Figure 1.64: US Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F 49 Figure 1.65: US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 50 Figure 1.66: US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 50 Figure 1.67: US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F 51 Figure 1.68: US Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F 51 Figure 1.69: Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F 51 Figure 1.70: Value of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F 52 Figure 1.71: Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 53 Figure 1.72: Value of the Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 53 Figure 1.73: Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F 54 Figure 1.74: Canadian Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 55 Figure 1.75: Online Penetration Comparison of Domestic and Outbound Canadian Travel Market, 2002-2012F 55 Figure 1.76: Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market – Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 56 Figure 1.77: Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 57 Figure 1.78: Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 57 Figure 1.79: Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F 58 Figure 1.80: Canadian Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F 58 Figure 1.81: Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 59 Figure 1.82: Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 59 Figure 1.83: Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F 60 Figure 1.84: Canadian Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F 60 Figure 1.85: Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F 60 Figure 2.1: North American Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F 61 Figure 2.2: Value of the North American Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F 61 Figure 2.3: Value of the North American Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million) - Direct vs. Indirect, 2008 62 Figure 2.4: North American Online Travel Agent Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 63 Figure 2.5: Value of the North American Online Travel Agent Market - Sector Breakdown, 2002-2012F 63 Figure 2.6: US Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F 64 Figure 2.7: Canadian Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F 64 Figure 2.8: North American Online Airline Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F 65 Figure 2.9: North American Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F 65 Figure 2.10: North American Online Car Rental Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F 66 Figure 2.11: North American Online Bus Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F 66 Figure 2.12: North American Online Cruise Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002- 2012F 66 Figure 2.13: North American Online Rail Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002-2012F 67 Figure 2.14: North American Online Package Market - Direct vs. Indirect as % and value, 2002- 2012F 67 5 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 6. List of Figures Figure 2.15: Value of the US Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F 68 Figure 2.16: Value of the US Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million) - Direct vs. Indirect, 2008 69 Figure 2.17: US Online Travel Agent Market Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 69 Figure 2.18: US Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F 71 Figure 2.19: Value of the US Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F 71 Figure 2.20: US Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F 72 Figure 2.21: Value of the US Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F 72 Figure 2.22: Indirect US Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 73 Figure 2.23: Value of the Indirect US Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002- 2012F 73 Figure 2.24: Indirect US Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 74 Figure 2.25: Value of the Indirect US Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 74 Figure 2.26: Indirect US Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 75 Figure 2.27: Value of the Indirect US Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002- 2012F 75 Figure 2.28: Indirect US Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 76 Figure 2.29: Value of the Indirect US Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 76 Figure 2.30: Indirect US Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 77 Figure 2.31: Value of the Indirect US Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002- 2012F 77 Figure 2.32: Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002- 2012F 78 Figure 2.33: Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market Sector Breakdown (US$ million) - Direct vs. Indirect, 2008 79 Figure 2.34: Canadian Online Travel Agent Market Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 79 Figure 2.35: Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F 81 Figure 2.36: Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market Y-o-Y Growth, Direct vs. Indirect, 2002- 2012F 81 Figure 2.37: Canadian Outbound Online Travel Market - Direct vs. Indirect (%), 2002-2012F 82 Figure 2.38: Canadian Domestic Online Travel Market Y-o-Y Growth - Direct vs. Indirect, 2002- 2012F 82 Figure 2.39: Indirect Canadian Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 83 Figure 2.40: Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Airline Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002- 2012F 83 Figure 2.41: Indirect Canadian Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 84 Figure 2.42: Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002- 2012F 85 Figure 2.43: Indirect Canadian Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002- 2012F 85 Figure 2.44: Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Car Rental Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 86 Figure 2.45: Indirect Canadian Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 87 Figure 2.46: Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Cruise Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002- 2012F 87 Figure 2.47: Indirect Canadian Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 88 Figure 2.48: Value of the Indirect Canadian Online Package Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 88 6 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 7. Executive Summary North America Online Travel Report 2009 Executive Summary > North American Travel Market Overview 2009 to be the first year this decade that a decline in travel expenditure is expected in the region The value of the North American travel market reached an estimated US$389,376 million in 2008 and a further 16% increase in volume is expect by 2012, but growth has slowed. 2009 is expected to be the first year this decade for a decline in the total value of travel expenditure and we forecast a recovery in 2010. Fastest growth in Hotel and Cruise sectors Airlines continue to account for the largest proportion of travel spend, followed by Hotels. In 2008 these sectors accounted for 35% and 25% of the total market respectively. Fastest growth has been in the Hotel and Cruise sectors. Online penetration of North American travel market reaches 35% Distribution trends within the North American market reveal some particularly interesting patterns. Whilst offline channels continue to account for the majority of travel spend online channel have been rapidly gaining share. In 2008 the online penetration of the North American travel market reached about 35% of the value. By 2012 we are expecting almost half of travel expenditure to be online. Growth rates of the online channel are expected to be lower than previous years but between 2008 and 2012 a total growth in value of almost 50% is forecast. The online travel market by 2012 is predicted to reach a value of US$201,382 million. That is an additional US$57,498 million annually to be circulated online by the end of 2012. All growth is online While the gross travel market experiences a relatively stagnant period, amongst this, the online travel market is showing very healthy growth and continuing to erode offline share. This illustrates the growing importance of online channels and the resilience to the economic downturn. The Airline sector dominates the online travel market (56%) and online expenditure on Airline products reached US$75,964 million in 2008. The value of the online travel market is forecast to grow in value by 44% between 2008 and 2012. The Hotel sector accounts for 32% of the total online travel market and US$42,831 million in 2008. Growth by 2012 is forecast to be up by a value of over 50%. The Car Rental sector is the next largest sector accounting for 7.7% and a value of US$10,389 million (2008). 11 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 8. Executive Summary Growth in the value of the outbound travel market has been higher than the domestic travel market, but in 2009 a decline of 4.8% is expected in the outbound market for the first time. Good recovery is forecast for 2010. Domestic travel accounts for around 64% of the total online travel market and outbound 36%. Outbound travel products for North American consumers have performed well online and increased in share from 28% in 2002. From 2010 we expect grow in both domestic and outbound online markets to hit double digit figures again. Canada increases it significance in the North American travel market but US spend more per trip Canadian travellers accounted for 9.4% of total North American travel trips in 2002 and by 2012 we expect this to increase to 11.3%. Canada has out performed the US from a volume growth perspective. Canada is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2009, while the US experiences a decline of around 1%. In value terms, the US contributes 90% to the North American market and this is expected to remain relatively consistent during the review period in this report. US travellers have a higher spend per trip than Canadian travellers. US online travel market valued at US$123,346 million in 2008 The US accounts for 91% of the total North American online travel market. The US online travel market reached an estimated value of US$123,346 million in 2008 and Canada US$12,252 million (CAD $12,869 million). The US online market is slightly more advanced than Canada but penetration is relatively similar. 35.2% of US travel expenditure was online in 2008 against a 31.5% penetration for Canada. By 2012 we forecast 44.8% of all US travel expenditure to be online and 42% of Canadian. A continuously changing travel distribution landscape The contrast between the performances of online and offline channels is enormous. Online channels have been remarkably productive and growth rates have remained in double digit figures for every year reviewed in the report – with the exception of 2009 when annual growth is expected to fall to a level of 6.3% (still well above growth levels for the offline market for the entire period). Put alongside offline productivity, the 5.2% decline in the offline market for 2009 makes a very strong statement. The online channels certainly now seem strong despite times of instability. US outbound travel market is growing Just under 70% of US travel expenditure is currently on domestic travel. Outbound travel is growing well and at higher rates than the more mature domestic market. 2009 is however expected to result in an estimated 4.8% decline. Mexico and Canada are receiving the most outbound travellers, followed by the UK. Growth has been strongest in Germany 12 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 9. Executive Summary North America Online Travel Report 2009 and Japan. A slightly higher proportion of domestic travel is bought online in comparison to outbound travel, but only marginally. Canadian travel market reaches US$38,869 million (CAD $40,825 million) in 2008 By 2012 the Canadian travel market is expected to be 73% larger in size than it was in 2002. The Canadian market is very different from the US in that outbound travel accounts for the majority of the Canadian travel market. In 2008 outbound travel contributed around 67% to the total Canadian travel market. Annual growth has generally been higher for outbound travel and a 5.5% CAGR is expected for the 2007-2012 review period. Canadian online travel market valued at US$1,986 million (2008) Online channels are also becoming increasingly significant for the Canadian travel market. Online penetration has jumped from 11% in 2002 to around 32% in 2008. Growth is expected to slow but continue to expand and penetrate around 42% of the market by 2012. The online travel market is divided fairly evenly between domestic and outbound markets, despite the domination of the outbound segment in the gross market. The domestic market has a higher online penetration and when in 2012 we forecast that 60% of domestic travel will be purchased online, 33% of the outbound segment will be online. Growth online for both has been remarkable though. Airline products make up a significant 61% of the Canadian online travel market and the data reveals that there is a lot of room for growth for some of the travel sectors. > Online Travel Agents Landscape Revenue from Direct distribution to the North American market growing in most sectors Increasing Direct distribution has become the trend for most travel sectors in the North American market. OTAs have as a result gradually lost their share of the online market. In 2002 OTAs generated around 47% of online revenue from North American travel consumers and in 2008 this reduced to 35%. By 2012 this is expected to reduce further to 31%. In value terms, the Indirect market has grown in size alongside growing online markets in general and a 17.5% CAGR was calculated for the 2002-2007 review period. In 2008 the value of the Indirect market reached US$47,841 million. So growth has been healthy for the OTA sector but we do forecast the biggest dip for the market in 2009; 1.9% growth is expected for the Indirect market and 8.4% growth for Direct channels. In 2010 we expect to see good growth return and forecast a 9% growth for that year. Airline products dominate OTA revenue Airline products make up the majority of OTA revenue and accounted for around 52% in 2008. This is largely accounted for the sheer size of the online Airline market. Hotel products are also very dominant. Expenditure on Bus, Rail and Package products is mainly 13 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 10. Executive Summary channelled direct to suppliers. Nevertheless, these sectors have edged up their share in OTA revenues marginally and have as a consequence eroded some of the Airline share. The share of OTAs in the Canadian market is more pronounced that in the US. In 2008 25% of the Canadian online market was Indirect and 36% of the US market. 14 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.