There were more Manhattan co-op and condo sales in the first quarter of 2011 than in the same period the previous year. However, key housing market indicators declined from a year ago, reflecting the expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit. The median sales price fell nearly 10% and average price per square foot dipped 1.3% from the first quarter of 2010. Listing inventory was also down slightly year-over-year, while days on the market increased and the discount between asking and sale prices declined. Co-op sales rose significantly but prices fell as the tax credit impact continued. Overall, the Manhattan housing market saw modest gains in activity but weaker conditions compared to a year ago.
Ebullient Investments Limited specializes in Building contractor
Manhattan First Quarter 2011 Real Estate Market Report
1. 1Q-2011
quarterly survey of co-op and condo
Manhattan sales
Co-ops & Condos Manhattan Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr
• ore sales than last year at this time
M Average Sales Price $1,331,306 -10.2% $1,482,650 -6.7% $1,426,994
A total of 2,394 sales closed in the Average Price per Sq Ft $1,025 -3.2% $1,058 -1.3% $1,038
first quarter of 2011, 0.4% and 4.3% Median Sales Price $782,071 -7.4% $845,000 -9.9% $868,000
more than the prior year and prior New Development $1,340,000 26.3% $1,060,738 15.5% $1,160,000
quarters, respectively. The pending Re-sale $725,000 -9.4% $800,000 -12.7% $830,000
sales index jumped 12.5% above the Number of Sales 2,394 4.3% 2,295 0.4% 2,384
last quarter of 2010. Days on Market (From Last List Date) 127 2.2% 125 3.3% 123
• rice indicators slipped as federal
P Listing Discount (From Last List Price) 4.5% 8.0% 5.3%
tax credit impact wanes Median sales Listing Inventory 7,605 5.2% 7,232 -5.3% 8,027
price declined 9.9% to $728,071 from Absorption Rate (mos) 9.5 0.0% 9.5 -5.9% 10.1
the same period last year. Price per Pending Price Index (4Q 08 base) 0.90 -3.2% 0.93 7.1% 0.84
square foot slipped 1.3% over the same Pending Sales Index (4Q 08 base) 1.75 12.5% 1.59 -14.2% 2.04
period. The pending price index slipped
from the prior quarter. QUARTERLY AVERAGE SALES PRICE MANHATTAN NUMBER OF SALES
$2,000,000 5,000
• ewer listings available for sale
F
$1,600,000 4,000
Listing inventory fell 5.3% to its lowest
$1,200,000 3,000
first quarter total in 3 years as the
number of days to sell a property edged $800,000 2,000
nominally higher by 4 days to 127, $400,000 1,000
below the ten year average of 132. $0 0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
There were more sales in the first quarter of 2011 period a year ago. sales price for the first quarter was $782,071,
than in any first quarter in 3 years or since the down 9.9% from the same period last year. Price
The primary price PRICE INDEX
PENDING indicators declined over the MANHATTAN PENDING SALES INDEX
credit crunch in 2008. There were 2,394 sales in per square foot averaged $1,025 in the first
past year reflecting the impact of the federal
1.00 3.0
the quarter, 0.4% more than 2,384 in the same quarter, slipping 1.3% over the same period.
homebuyers tax credit. The first half of 2010 saw 2.5
period a year ago and 4.3% more than 2,295 in 0.95
an0.90
increase in sales activity pressing prices higher The amount of active listing inventory is 2.0 its
at
the prior quarter. The pending sales index—an
aggregate of collected contract data presented as buyers sought to sign contracts by April 30th lowest level for a first quarter since 2007. There
0.85 1.5
in index form—indicated a 10.1% increase from in 2010. This “poached” some demand from the were 7,605 listings in the first quarter of 2011,
0.80 1.0
the prior quarter, but activity was 14.2% lower sales activity normally seen over the summer and 5.3% below the 8,027 listings in the same period
0.75 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0.5
than the same period a year ago. Market share fall and drove prices higher. Once the stimulus last year. The combination of declining inventory
for new development sales slipped to 14.5% was removed, the second half of the year saw and modest gains in sales activity effected
of all sales down from 16.6% during the same weaker overall conditions inABSORTION RATE
MANHATTAN MONTHLY comparison. Median the monthly absorption rate—the number of
CO OP CONDO
25
20
The Douglas Elliman Report series is recognized as the industry standard for providing
15
(9.9 Month Rate, 10-year average)
the state of the residential real estate market10 the New York City metropolitan region.
in
5
The report includes an extensive suite of tools to help readers objectively identify and
0
measure market trends, provide historical context <500K
to current information and provide
$500K-$999K $1M-$1.49M 1.5M-$1.99M $2M-$2.99M $3M-$4.99M $5M-$9.99M $10M+
comprehensive analysis of the results.
MANHATTAN CO OP AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE by Miller Samuel Inc.
Prepared WESTSIDE UPTOWN
$1,500 Appraisal and consulting services covering the New York City metropolitan area
$1,200
2. $800,000 2,000
$400,000 1,000
$400,000 1,000
$0 0
1Q-2011 $0
01 02 03 04 05 06
The Douglas Elliman Report • Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op & Condo Sales
01 02 03 04 05 06
07
07
08
08
09
09
10
10
11
11
0
QUARTERLY AVERAGE SALES PRICE MANHATTAN NUMBER OF SALES
$2,000,000 5,000
PENDING PRICE INDEX MANHATTAN PENDING SALES INDEX
months to sell all active listing inventory at the PENDING PRICE INDEX MANHATTAN PENDING SALES INDEX 4,000
$1,600,000 3.0
1.00
current pace of sales—which fell to 9.5 months 3.0
1.00
$1,200,000 3,000
0.95 2.5
from 10.1 months in the same period last year.
0.95
$800,000 2.5
2,000
The current rate is slightly faster than the 9.9 0.90 2.0
$400,000
0.90 2.0
1,000
average absorption rate of the past 10 years or 0.85 1.5
0.85 $0 0
1.5
40 quarters. 0.80 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1.0
0.80 1.0
Mortgage lending remains unusually tight and 0.75 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0.5
0.75 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0.5
unemployment, while generally improving,
remains elevated. Both factors have kept PENDING PRICE INDEX MANHATTAN PENDING SALES INDEX
sales activity from posting significant gains. MANHATTAN MONTHLY ABSORTION RATE CO OP CONDO
MANHATTAN MONTHLY ABSORTION RATE
1.00 CO OP CONDO 3.0
25
Although Wall Street bonuses declined, overall
25
0.95 2.5
compensation actually increased 5%. This 20
20
0.90 2.0
resulted in an increased visibility at the high end 15
(9.9 Month Rate, 10-year average)
15
0.85 1.5
of the housing market. The performance of this 10 (9.9 Month Rate, 10-year average)
10 1.0
regional economic engine is a key reason that 0.80
5
5
the Manhattan housing market continues to 0.75
0 1Q 09
<500K $500K-$999K 09
2Q 09 3Q $1M-$1.49M 09 1.5M-$1.99M
4Q 1Q 10 2Q 10
$2M-$2.99M 3Q 10
$3M-$4.99M4Q 10
$5M-$9.99M 11
1Q $10M+
0.5
0
outperform the US housing market. <500K $500K-$999K $1M-$1.49M 1.5M-$1.99M $2M-$2.99M $3M-$4.99M $5M-$9.99M $10M+
MANHATTAN MONTHLY ABSORTION RATE CO OP CONDO
Co-ops Co-op Market Matrix
25 Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr
• umber of sales surged yet listing
N Average Sales Price OP AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT
MANHATTAN CO
20 $1,044,730 -13.0% DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN
$1,200,589 -7.8% $1,133,715
MANHATTAN CO OP AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT
$1,500 DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN
inventory edged higher Co-ops sales Average Price Per Sq Ft
15 $896 -3.4% $928 -1.3% $908
$1,500 (9.9 Month Rate, 10-year average)
jumped 28.7% to 1,430 from 1,111 in the $1,200
Median Sales Price $642,500 -6.2% $685,000 -6.2% $685,000
10
$1,200
same period last year yet listing inventory $900
Number of Sales
5 1,430 20.6% 1,186 28.7% 1,111
increased 5% as more sellers looked to $900
$600
Days on Market (From Last List Date) 119 0.8% 118 8.2% 110
take advantage of the spring market. 0
$600 <500K $500K-$999K $1M-$1.49M 1.5M-$1.99M $2M-$2.99M $3M-$4.99M $5M-$9.99M $10M+
$300
Listing Discount (From Last List Price) 2.4% 5.8% 3.8%
• ll price indicators declined from
A $300
Listing Inventory
$0 3,998 8.4% 3,687 5.0% 3,809
1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11
prior year and prior quarter Median $0
Absorption Rate (mos)
1Q 10 2Q 10 8.4 -9.7%
3Q 10 9.3 10 -18.4%
4Q 1Q 11 10.3
sales price fell 6.2% to $642,500 from
$685,000 in the prior year quarter as
MANHATTAN CO OP AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT
MANHATTAN CONDO AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT DOWNTOWN
DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE
EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN
WESTSIDE UPTOWN
the impact of the tax credit expiration MANHATTAN CONDO AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT
$1,500
$2,000 DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN
continued. $2,000
$1,200
$1,600
• ays on market expanded as listing
D $1,600
$900
$1,200
discount declined Co-op apartments $1,200
$600
$800
took an average of 119 days to sell or 9
$800
$300
days longer than last year. Despite the $400
$400
increase, the difference between asking $0
$0 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11
1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11
price and sales price declined. $0
1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11
QUiNtiLeS % Chg Prior
MANHATTAN CONDO AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FTCo-op apt. Mix EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN
Median Sales price Current Qtr
Year Qtr DOWNTOWN
% of Total Median Price
All price indicators in the first quarter were below by No. of Sales
$2,000 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LOFT ABSORPTION RATE
the levels seen in the same period last year. The AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT -11.6%MANHATTAN LOFT
5/5 $1,900,000 Studio 16% $347,500
ABSORPTION RATE 10
$1,400
$1,600 4/5
price per square foot of a Manhattan co-op sale $1,400 $925,000 -7.4% 1 bedroom 40% $535,000
10
$1,300
$1,200 3/5 8
was $896, 1.3% less than $908 in the prior $1,300 $625,000 -6.7% 2 bedroom 34% $995,000
8
$1,200
$800 2/5 6
year quarter. The decline in the price indicators $1,200
$466,250 -6.6% 3 bedroom 8% $1,745,000
6
$1,1001/5
$400 4
was partially attributable to the decline in market $310,000 -2.8% 4+ bedroom 2% $5,700,000
$1,100 4
share of high-end co-op apartment sales. The $1,000
$0 2
1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11
double digit
$1,000 year over year declines in median absorption rate fell sharply to 8.4 months2from
3 or more bedroom co-op market comprised $900 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0
sales price.
$900 10.3 months last year at this1Qtime. A 0
lower
10% of all co-op sales in the first quarter, down 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 11
from 13% in the prior year quarter and down The number of sales increased 28.7% over the absorption rate suggests that the market has
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LOFT ABSORPTION RATE
from 14% in the prior quarter. In addition to the AVERAGE PRICE quarterly total in MANHATTAN LUXURY its efficiency with RATEincrease
year to 1,430, the largest PER SQ FT more been improving ABSORPTION the
$1,400AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LUXURY ABSORPTION RATE 10
shift in the mix to 2-bedrooms and studios, the $2,600
than 3 years, outpacing the 5% year over year in purchase activity outpacing the increase in
25
$2,600
$1,300 8 25
3-bedroom market was the only segment to post gain in listing inventory. As a result, the monthly listings coming
$2,400 on the market. 20
$2,400
$1,200 6 20
$2,200 15
$2,200
$1,100 4 15
Visit our website to$2,000
browse listings and learn more about market trends 10
$2,000
$1,000 2 10
$1,800 5
3. $2,000,000
10 5,000
$1,600,000
5 4,000
$1,200,000 Report • Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op & Condo Sales
The Douglas 0
Elliman
<500K $500K-$999K $1M-$1.49M 1.5M-$1.99M $2M-$2.99M $3M-$4.99M $5M-$9.99M 1Q-2011 $10M+
3,000
$800,000 2,000
$400,000 1,000
$0 0
Condos CoNdo Market Matrix
01 02
Current Qtr
MANHATTAN CO OP AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT
% Chg
03 04
Prior Qtr % Chg
05 06
Prior Year Qtr
DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN
07 08 09 10 11
Average Sales Price
$1,500 $1,756,414 -1.6% $1,784,296 3.9% $1,690,399
• ll price indictors posted gains
A
Average Price Per Sq Ft $1,216 1.5% $1,198 5.4% $1,154
from prior year Price per square foot $1,200
Median PENDING PRICE INDEX
Sales Price MANHATTAN
$1,150,000 15.2% PENDING SALES INDEX
$997,885 8.0% $1,065,000
increased 5.4% to $1,216 from $1,154 in $900
Number of Sales
1.00 964 -13.1% 1,109 -24.3% 3.0
1,273
the prior year quarter. $600
Days on Market (From Last List Date)
0.95 140 6.1% 132 3.7% 135
2.5
• umber of sales dropped as supply
N $300
Listing Discount (From Last List Price) 7.7% 10.4% 6.7%
0.90 2.0
was limited Number of sales fell 24.3% $0
Listing Inventory 1Q 10 3,607 1.7% 3,545 10 -14.5% 4,218
2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 1Q 11
0.85 1.5
from the same period last year as listing Absorption Rate (mos) 11.2 16.7% 9.6 13.1% 9.9
0.80 1.0
inventory fell 14.5% to second lowest
level in more than 5 years. MANHATTAN CONDO AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ10
0.75 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q FT DOWNTOWN 10
2Q 10 3Q EASTSIDE WESTSIDE
4Q 10 1Q 11 0.5
UPTOWN
$2,000
• roperties took slightly longer to sell
P
$1,600
and listing discount grew Days on
MANHATTAN MONTHLY ABSORTION RATE
$1,200 CO OP CONDO
market averaged 140 days, 5 days longer 25
$800
than in the prior year quarter as average
20
$400
listing discount increased to 7.7%.
15
$0 (9.9 Month Rate, 10-year average)
1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11
10
All price indicators increased in the first quarter 5
QUiNtiLeS % Chg Prior
Median Sales price
0 Current Qtr Co-op apt. Mix % of Total Median Price
when compared to the same period last year. by No. of Sales
<500K $500K-$999K $1M-$1.49M Qtr
Year 1.5M-$1.99M $2M-$2.99M $3M-$4.99M $5M-$9.99M $10M+
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LOFT ABSORPTION RATE
The median sales price of a Manhattan condo 5/5 $3,696,247 6.4% Studio 8% $495,000
$1,400 10
was $1,150,000, 8% higher than $1,065,000 in 4/5 $1,882,381 14.1% 1-bedroom 31% $725,000
$1,300 8
the prior year quarter. The increase was largely 3/5 $1,152,541 2.4% 2-bedroom 44% $1,451,006
$1,200 6
due to a jump in market share of 2-bedroom MANHATTAN CO OP $745,375 PRICE PER SQ FT
2/5 AVERAGE -1.9% 3-bedroom
DOWNTOWN 11% $2,850,000
EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN
$1,100 4
apartments in the first quarter to 44% of all 1/5
$1,500 $505,000 3.8% 4+ bedroom 6% $4,650,000
$1,000 2
condo sales from 34% in the same period last $1,200
Days on market took 5 days longer in the first properties that closed in the quarter.
year, the highest market share in two years. $900
$900 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0
There were 2.1% to 14.2% price increases quarter of 2010, averaging 140 days from 135 Listing inventory in the first quarter fell 14.5%
$600
across all size categories with the exception days in the prior year quarter. The constraint on
to 3,607 units from the prior year quarter, the
$300
of the most volatile category of 4+ bedrooms, inventory allowed PRICE sales toFT absorbed second lowest level ABSORPTION RATE in more
AVERAGE older PER SQ be MANHATTAN LUXURY
of active inventory
$0
$2,600 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 25
which fell 17.7% over the same period. pushing the average days on market higher for than five years.
$2,400 20
$2,200 15
Lofts MANHATTAN CONDO AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT
Loft Market Matrix
$2,000
$2,000
Current Qtr
DOWNTOWN EASTSIDE WESTSIDE UPTOWN
% Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr
10
• ore sales activity than same time
M Average Sales Price $1,889,996 -9.4% $2,086,120 -7.4% $2,040,263
5
$1,800
$1,600
last year Sales increased 5% to 189 Average Price Per Square Foot $1,101 2.8% $1,071 -1.8% $1,121
$1,600
$1,200 0
Median Sales Price 10
1Q 2Q 10
$1,500,000 3Q 10
-4.0% 4Q 10
$1,563,013 7.1% 1Q 11 $1,400,000
from 180 in the same period a year ago
$800
Number of Sales 189 11.8% 169 5.0% 180
and 11.8% more than 169 in the prior
Days on Market (From Last List Date)
$400 131 0.0% 131 -10.3% 146
quarter.
Listing Discount (From Last List Price)
$0 5.3% 5.8% 3.3%
1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11
• rice indicators were mixed From the
P Listing Inventory 469 0.4%
IN FOCUS PERCENT OF SALES SOLD ABOVE LAST LIST PRICE 467 -15.6% 556
first quarter last year, the median sales Absorption Rate (mos)
18 7.4 -10.8% 8.3 -20.4% 9.3
price increased 7.1% to $1,500,000 and 15
the average price per square foot fell 12 AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LOFT ABSORPTION RATE
1.8% to $1,101. $1,400
9 10
$1,300
6 8
• nventory fell as properties sold more
I
3
$1,200 6
quickly There were 15.6% fewer listings
0
in the first quarter than last year at this $1,100 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11
4
time as days on market declined by 15 $1,000 2
days to 131. $900 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 0
Note: This sub-category analyzes all co-op & condo loft sales available. The data is also contained within the co-op & condo markets presented.
Se ing Original List Price & Impact on Days on Market Difference in Days Between Original & Last List
BELOW SALES PRICE SAME AS SALES PRICE ABOVE SALES PRICE DOM (from Last List) DOM (from Original List) DIFFERENCE
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ FT MANHATTAN LUXURY ABSORPTION RATE
Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends
300 300 150
$2,600 25
240 240 120
$2,400 20