Accompaniment to this event: http://www.worldaffairs.org/audio-video/2013/reduce-nuclear-weapons.html Speaker: Steven Pifer, Director, Arms Control Initiative, Brookings Institution Moderator: Zachary Davis, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory The ongoing nuclear proliferation issues with Iran and North Korea have put nuclear arms high up on the American foreign policy agenda. These media grabbing developments can sometimes overshadow traditional nuclear arms reduction talks and stockpile maintenance. With that said, President Obama made reducing existing nuclear weapons a foreign policy priority during his first term. Now that Obama has begun his second term with the New START Treaty between the US and Russia signed and in force, should the US consider other nuclear arms control steps to enhance American security? Can there be another major US-Russia treaty and, if so, can the tactical and surplus strategic nuclear warheads that have so far escaped control be brought into such a framework? Ambassador Steven Pifer will discuss the differences between Washington and Moscow over missile defense, the proposal to ban further production of fissile materials and the challenges facing the Obama administration in pursuing this agenda.

1. Seizing the Opportunity to
Reduce Nuclear Weapons
Steven Pifer
Director, Brookings Arms Control Initiative
May 30, 2013
World Affairs Council of Northern California

2. New START Limits
• 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles
• 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers
and bombers
• 1550 deployed strategic warheads

3. US Nuclear Stockpile

4. Transparency
New START Numbers, March 2013
New START Limit US Russia
Deployed strategic delivery
vehicles (700) 792 492
Deployed and non-deployed
launchers and bombers (800) 1028 900
Deployed warheads (1550) 1654 1480

5. Potential Cost Savings
• Need to recapitalize
strategic triad
• Ballistic missile
submarines
• Heavy bombers
• ICBMs
• Budget demands

6. US, Russia Nuclear
Warhead Levels
US Russia
Deployed strategic * ~1950 ~1740
Nonstrategic ~500 ~2000
Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200 ~700
(~4700) (~4450)
Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000
Total warheads ~7700 ~8500
* Estimated actual number, not New START accountable number
Numbers drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, “Trimming Nuclear Excess: Options for Further Reductions of U.S. and
Russian Nuclear Forces”

7. “Big” Treaty
• Limit on each side of no more than
2000-2500 total nuclear warheads
• 1000 deployed strategic warhead sublimit
• Aggregate limit => trade-off
• Limit of 500 deployed strategic
delivery vehicles

8. Notional Reduction to 2000 Total

9. Parallel Reduction Tracks
• (1) Deployed strategic weapons
• Amend New START limits
• (2) Reserve strategic and non-
strategic nuclear weapons
• Transparency/CBMs => negotiation
regarding numerical limits in phases

10. Cooperative Missile Defense?
• Transparency
• Joint exercises
• Two independent
systems interacting
• Data fusion center
• Planning and
operations center

11. Nuclear Explosions, 1945-2013
United States
• 1054 total
Rest of World
• USSR/Russia 715
• France 210
• Britain 45
• China 45
• India 6
• Pakistan 5
• North Korea 3
• Total 1029

12. Multilateralizing Arms Control

13. Russia Under New START
New START Numbers, March 2013
New START Limit US Russia
Deployed strategic delivery
vehicles (700) 792 492
Deployed and non-deployed
launchers and bombers (800) 1028 900
Deployed warheads (1550) 1654 1480

14. US, Russia Nuclear
Warhead Levels
US Russia
Deployed strategic * ~1950 ~1740
Nonstrategic ~500 ~2000
Non-deployed (reserve) strategic ~2200 ~700
(~4700) (~4450)
Retired warheads ~3000 ~4000
Total warheads ~7700 ~8500
* Estimated actual number, not New START accountable number
Numbers drawn from Hans M. Kristensen, “Trimming Nuclear Excess: Options for Further Reductions of U.S. and
Russian Nuclear Forces”