4. US$200: Oil Crunch occurs with severe
macro economic impacts.
US$150: Food prices rise causing riots in
many developing countries.
US$100: Inefficient airlines loose money
and go bust.
US$80: United States economy goes into
recession.
5. The mechanics of oil
prices are complex.
But one variable we
cannot ignore is peak oil.
6. Peak oil is not a theory.
It is a physical reality.
7. In 1956 M. King Hubbert
forecast that crude oil
production in the United
States would peak
between 1965 and 1970.
9. There is no consensus on the timing
of global peak oil.
10. In October 2009, UK Energy
Research Centre compared
500 global oil production
forecasts and identified why
they are different.
Download report from:
http://www.ukerc.ac.uk
11. Concluded that there is a
significant risk of global oil
production peak before
2020.
12. Why aren’t we more concerned
about the reality of peak oil?
13. For many years, it was just
retired geologists, like Dr.
Colin Campbell, warning
about peak oil.
14. But now global business leaders, like Richard
Branson, are very worried.
16. So Virgin joined the UK Industry
Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy
Security.
17. Their 2010 report predicts....
“...oil crunch will
happen in the next
five years...”
See: http://peakoiltaskforce.net/
18. Robert Gates, US
Secretary of State for
Defense, is also worried.
He has a nation to
defend and a world to
police.
19. He warns that...
“every time the price
of oil goes up by 1
dollar per barrel it
costs us about 130
million dollars.”
20. US Joint Forces Command
states that by 2015...
“the shortfall in [oil] output
could reach nearly 10 mbd
[million barrels a day].”
... this will cause major
tensions in the world.
21. The US military will...
- Introduce 4,000 electric
vehicles by 2013.
- Power a naval fleet and
half of all aviation with
biofuels by 2016.
22. Fatih Birol, chief economist at
the International Energy
Agency, says conventional oil
production peaked in 2006.
23. Until 2008, the IEA tended to make optimistic
projections about future oil production levels.
Now they warn that we have to find the equivalent
of four Saudi Arabias by 2030 in order to keep pace
with oil demand.
26. Oil production levels will remain static or fall.
Oil consumption in OECD countries is also falling.
Oil demand in non-OCED countries, including China
and India, will continue to grow rapidly.
27. Oil consumption in major countries
(thousand barrels per day)
30000
22500
United States
15000
China
7500
Japan
0
India
1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
28. Shell warns that...
“we are entering an era
of volatile transitions
...a zone of extraordinary
opportunity or misery.”
35. If you own a business then read
2010 report by Lloyds and
Chatham House...
“Businesses that take advantage
of the new energy reality will
prosper - failure to do so could
be catastrophic.”
See: http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/16720_0610_froggatt_lahn.pdf
36. If you are a policy-maker, read
the 2005 Hirsch Report for the US
Department of Energy
Argues that if we do not act until
peak oil arrives then we will face
20 years of painful economic
transition.
See: www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
37. Everyone read the Transition
Handbook by Rob Hopkins
See: http://transitionculture.org/
Every community needs an
energy descent plan...and
many already have one!
38. The big question is ...
can we break free
from our oil
addiction?
39. Can we make a
new global
operating system
(version 2.0) that
does not run on
oil?
40. Four key scenarios
Revolutionary/ Mitigation
Systemic Change
Do Nothing
Adaptation (prey for a miracle)
41. Revolutionary/Systemic Change
Who?: Mark Jacobson (Stanford University), Tetsunari Iida (ISEP), WWF
Where?: Sweden, Germany, California
Long-term, sustainable solution, but massive social change.
100% renewable by specific date (e.g., by 2030 or 2050), phase out fossil
fuels/nuclear power.
Power down (e.g., reduce energy consumption by 50%) through greater
efficiencies and savings (negawatts).
Introduce smart grid, electric vehicle fleet and off-peak power storage
(e.g., hydrogen fuel, batteries).
Unclear how liquid fuels problem will be solved (unless redirect oil saved
from electricity generation) or how stable renewable electricity supply will
be.
42. Adaptation
Who?: Saul Griffith, Shuzo Nishioka, Low Carbon Society, 2000 Watt Society
Where?: Switzerland, China, India and maybe Japan
Promote both renewable and nuclear energy, but reduce fossil fuel use.
Massive technological innovation (e.g., globally requires 1xGW nuclear plant
to be built every week for 25 years, 100 m2 of solar cells every second, etc).
Solve climate and energy security challenges at the same time.
Maintain existing lifestyles, convenience and services while reducing overall
energy use (i.e. to 1/3 of present levels for Japan, 1/6 of US current levels).
Promote equitable solution for developed and developing countries.
Ignores nuclear accident risks. Future generations have to solve radioactive
waste problem.
43. Mitigation
Who?: Robert Hirsch, UK Industry Peak Oil Taskforce, International Energy
Agency
Where?: US, UK, Canada
Too late to adapt and therefore need emergency measures.
Promote administrative measures such as carpooling, telecommuting and fuel
rationing.
Promote physical measures like fuel-efficient transportation; EOR in existing oil fields;
liquid fuels from tar sands, coal-to-liquid/gas-to-liquid operations.
Calculate these measures could save 30 million barrels per day.
Excludes nuclear and renewables because they only produce electricity, not liquid
fuels, and biomass-to-liquids because they require heavy subsidies.
Ignores impact on environment and climate (i.e., Canadian tar sands destroying
huge area).
44. Holmgren’s Four Energy Futures
Techno-Explosion
Climax
(Post-modern
cultural chaos)
Energy and Resource Use Techno-Stability
Population
Pollution
Industrial
Ascent
Energy
Descent
Pre-industrial
sustainable culture Collapse
Historical Time Future Time
Agriculture Industrial
10,000 years BP revolution
http://www.futurescenarios.org/content/view/16/31/
45. At the United Nations
University we launched
the Our World 2.0
webzine in July 2008
to explore the transition
to a low carbon, post oil
era .
46. Lets work together in promoting this shift.
ourworld.unu.edu
@ourworld20
/Our-World-20
/UNUChannel
