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Emerging Markets & Next-Gen Broadband   Benoît Felten, Principal Analyst Wally Swain, Senior VP March 30, 2010
Agenda State of Emerging Markets’ Fiber to the Home (FTTH) The FTTH Conundrum Building a Generic Business Model What’s Different About Emerging Markets? Q&A
Poll What region of the world are you most interested in?
Asia-Pacific Emerging FTTH India: BSNL targets 700K customers in 2009, 7M by 2015 Other smaller initiatives around new property developments China: 8M homes connected with FTTB/H, especially in the south SPs are China Telecom and China Unicom Malaysia:  Incumbent TM targets 1.3M homes in or around Kuala Lumpur
Middle East/Africa Emerging FTTH Egypt:  TMG has limited affluent area deployment (~30K) Telecom Egypt has a pilot deployment in Cairo Saudi Arabia: STC has pilot FTTH deployments, but no significant deployment as of yet UAE: Etisalat covers 700K homes with FTTH/B Du covers 400K Subs low at estmated 70K
Latin America Emerging FTTH Brazil:  Telef ó nica deploying FTTB in  Sao Paulo [~100K homes passed) GVT deploying FTTH in various cities (est. 600K customers over FTTB)
The FTTH Conundrum ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The question for telcos is: How do I make a necessary but considerable  investment in optimal conditions?
Solutions to Enhance the FTTH Business Model
What’s Different About Emerging Markets? Lower labor costs Favorable public policy Much smaller addressable market Lower ARPU Slower takeup
Lower Labor Costs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Proxy for Relative Wage Scale Purchasing Power Parity Inverse Scale Proxy for Wages Relative to the USA
Favorable Public Policy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Smaller Addressable Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lower ARPU ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where Is There Enough Purchasing Power for FTTH? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The ratio of estimated triple-play ARPU to estimated household ICT monthly spending (ICT spending is generally 4-8% of GDP) Unlikely for business plan to work
Deployment Scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Dense Deployment Only the wealthiest part of the population can afford triple-play services, which limits deployment to dense urban areas where they dwell. Cherry-Picked Deployment Only the richest of the rich can afford triple play, which means deployment will be cherry-picking gated communities and super-rich land developments. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Comments on the Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Disruptive Factors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Which Force Is Greater In Your Market? Lower labor costs Favorable public policy Much smaller addressable market Lower ARPU Slower takeup
Q&A ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Our essential analysis of next-generation access service portfolios, pricing and bundling strategies for 20 broadband operators across the globe
Thank You www.yankeegroup.com Read analyst blogs at  blogs.yankeegroup.com Watch analyst videos at youtube.com/yankeegroup   Follow us on Twitter:  @YankeeGroup   Fan Yankee Group  at facebook.com Benoît Felten, Principal Analyst [email_address] Wally Swain, Senior VP [email_address] Upcoming Yankee Group webinar: 4G Mobile Backhaul Evolution Tuesday, April 27, 2010 | 11am ET Register at www.yankeegroup.com

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Emerging Markets Broadband Growth & FTTH Business Models

  • 1. Emerging Markets & Next-Gen Broadband Benoît Felten, Principal Analyst Wally Swain, Senior VP March 30, 2010
  • 2. Agenda State of Emerging Markets’ Fiber to the Home (FTTH) The FTTH Conundrum Building a Generic Business Model What’s Different About Emerging Markets? Q&A
  • 3. Poll What region of the world are you most interested in?
  • 4. Asia-Pacific Emerging FTTH India: BSNL targets 700K customers in 2009, 7M by 2015 Other smaller initiatives around new property developments China: 8M homes connected with FTTB/H, especially in the south SPs are China Telecom and China Unicom Malaysia: Incumbent TM targets 1.3M homes in or around Kuala Lumpur
  • 5. Middle East/Africa Emerging FTTH Egypt: TMG has limited affluent area deployment (~30K) Telecom Egypt has a pilot deployment in Cairo Saudi Arabia: STC has pilot FTTH deployments, but no significant deployment as of yet UAE: Etisalat covers 700K homes with FTTH/B Du covers 400K Subs low at estmated 70K
  • 6. Latin America Emerging FTTH Brazil: Telef ó nica deploying FTTB in Sao Paulo [~100K homes passed) GVT deploying FTTH in various cities (est. 600K customers over FTTB)
  • 7.
  • 8. Solutions to Enhance the FTTH Business Model
  • 9. What’s Different About Emerging Markets? Lower labor costs Favorable public policy Much smaller addressable market Lower ARPU Slower takeup
  • 10.
  • 11. Proxy for Relative Wage Scale Purchasing Power Parity Inverse Scale Proxy for Wages Relative to the USA
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Which Force Is Greater In Your Market? Lower labor costs Favorable public policy Much smaller addressable market Lower ARPU Slower takeup
  • 20.
  • 21. Thank You www.yankeegroup.com Read analyst blogs at blogs.yankeegroup.com Watch analyst videos at youtube.com/yankeegroup Follow us on Twitter: @YankeeGroup Fan Yankee Group at facebook.com Benoît Felten, Principal Analyst [email_address] Wally Swain, Senior VP [email_address] Upcoming Yankee Group webinar: 4G Mobile Backhaul Evolution Tuesday, April 27, 2010 | 11am ET Register at www.yankeegroup.com