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Christopher Collins, Senior Analyst
                      Josh Holbrook, Director
                      Camille Mendler, Vice President
                      Jon Paisner, Senior Analyst
                                                                                                                  Dec. 15, 2009
                                             © Copyright 2008. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   www.yankeegroup.com
© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.                                                www.yankeegroup.com
Agenda


                                                                                        • State of Anywhere Economy

                                                                                        • 2010 Predictions

                                                                                        • Summary and Conclusions

                                                                                        • Q&A




© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions   Dec.15, 2009     Page 2
Poll 11
 Poll


 If you had $1,000 of your own money
 to invest in 2010, where would you
 invest it?




© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions   Dec.15, 2009   Page 3
State of Anywhere Economy
• Consumers are spending less
       – One in four consumers
         expects to cancel or spend                                                             Despite a weak 2009, the Anywhere
                                                                                                  economy will grow dramatically
         less for core connectivity
         solutions

• Enterprise investments are down
       – 83 percent of businesses say
         the economy has had some to
         severe impact on their
         technology spending

• Network builders have stalled at
  macro levels
       – Forecasted expansion of
         aggregate broadband revenue
         has been delayed one year


© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions        Dec.15, 2009       Page 4
Agenda


                                                                                        • State of Anywhere Economy

                                                                                        • 2010 Predictions

                                                                                        • Summary and Conclusions

                                                                                        • Q&A




© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions   Dec.15, 2009     Page 5
Cord-cutting will double yet again




                                •3, T-Mobile                                                         •Sky, TalkTalk



                          Operators must fight back with bundled offers.
© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions     Dec.15, 2009   Page 6
The bell tolls for device subsidies




                            Sprint, T-Mobile                                                         AT&T, Verizon


       Operators must strategically eliminate subsidies to quickly
                 and effectively offload device costs.
© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions    Dec.15, 2009   Page 7
Netbooks fall from grace




         Dell, HP, Intel, Lenovo, Microsoft,                                                 Acer, ASUS, Linux, MSI, Qualcomm
                       Toshiba

          Back netbooks and laptops with satisfaction guarantees.
           Relentlessly educate retail employees and customers.
© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions      Dec.15, 2009       Page 8
Consumers drive more than
                          50 percent of enterprise
                          smartphone purchases




                      Apple, Android, HTC,                                                               Blackberry BES,
                         Sybase-Afaria                                                               Microsoft Windows Mobile


Operators must place increased emphasis on managed mobility.
© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions          Dec.15, 2009        Page 9
Telcos unite behind
                                        infrastructure sharing




            Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, NSN                                                            Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, NSN


    Competitive differentiation lies in services, not network reach:
    Focus on service delivery platforms and innovation partners.
© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions            Dec.15, 2009       Page 10
Enterprise trust lifts telcos to the
                      top of the cloud




     BT, Deutsche Telekom, NTT, Orange                                                   Amazon Web Services, GoGrid, Google
          Business Services, SingTel

         Smart telcos don't worry about the cloud: They realize the
          cloud needs them. Start talking up resilient connectivity.
© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions    Dec.15, 2009      Page 11
Agenda


                                                                                        • State of Anywhere Economy

                                                                                        • 2010 Predictions

                                                                                        • Summary and Conclusions

                                                                                        • Q&A




© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions   Dec.15, 2009     Page 12
2010 Predictions Summary


   1.  Cord-cutting will double yet again
   2.  The bell tolls for device subsidies
   3.  Netbooks fall from grace
   4.  Consumers drive more than 50 percent of enterprise smartphone
       purchases
   5. Chrome OS powers a new class of Anywhere devices
   6. Cloudy IT sparks demand for clear management tools
   7. Upstart upsets the equipment vendor applecart
   8. Enterprise trust lifts telcos to the top of the cloud
   9. Network innovation well runs dry
   10. Telcos unite behind infrastructure sharing
   11. U.S. network neutrality rules have domino effect worldwide




© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions   Dec.15, 2009   Page 13
Final Thoughts


       “Smart companies are fearful when others are greedy and
                greedy only when others are fearful.”
                                                                                                          - Warren Buffett

                           •       Opportunity is ripe, despite economic uncertainty

                           •       Avoid the hunker-down mentality

                           •       Adapt quickly to the new environment

                           •       Embrace transparency




© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions   Dec.15, 2009            Page 14
Q&A

 Get a FREE copy of Yankee Group’s 2010 Predictions report
   Register as a Guest at www.yankeegroup.com/join.do for instant access.




© Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   Yankee Group 2010 Predictions   Dec.15, 2009   Page 15
Thank you!
Christopher Collins, senior analyst, ccollins@yankeegroup.com
Josh Holbrook, director, jholbrook@yankeegroup.com
Camille Mendler, VP, cmendler@yankeegroup.com
Jon Paisner, senior analyst, jpaisner@yankeegroup.com



Upcoming Yankee Group webinar:
Introducing ANYWHERE, the book – Jan. 14, 2010

Look for our 2010 webinar schedule at www.yankeegroup.com
© Copyright 2008. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.   www.yankeegroup.com

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Yankee Group 2010 Predictions

  • 1. Christopher Collins, Senior Analyst Josh Holbrook, Director Camille Mendler, Vice President Jon Paisner, Senior Analyst Dec. 15, 2009 © Copyright 2008. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. www.yankeegroup.com © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. www.yankeegroup.com
  • 2. Agenda • State of Anywhere Economy • 2010 Predictions • Summary and Conclusions • Q&A © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 2
  • 3. Poll 11 Poll If you had $1,000 of your own money to invest in 2010, where would you invest it? © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 3
  • 4. State of Anywhere Economy • Consumers are spending less – One in four consumers expects to cancel or spend Despite a weak 2009, the Anywhere economy will grow dramatically less for core connectivity solutions • Enterprise investments are down – 83 percent of businesses say the economy has had some to severe impact on their technology spending • Network builders have stalled at macro levels – Forecasted expansion of aggregate broadband revenue has been delayed one year © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 4
  • 5. Agenda • State of Anywhere Economy • 2010 Predictions • Summary and Conclusions • Q&A © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 5
  • 6. Cord-cutting will double yet again •3, T-Mobile •Sky, TalkTalk Operators must fight back with bundled offers. © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 6
  • 7. The bell tolls for device subsidies Sprint, T-Mobile AT&T, Verizon Operators must strategically eliminate subsidies to quickly and effectively offload device costs. © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 7
  • 8. Netbooks fall from grace Dell, HP, Intel, Lenovo, Microsoft, Acer, ASUS, Linux, MSI, Qualcomm Toshiba Back netbooks and laptops with satisfaction guarantees. Relentlessly educate retail employees and customers. © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 8
  • 9. Consumers drive more than 50 percent of enterprise smartphone purchases Apple, Android, HTC, Blackberry BES, Sybase-Afaria Microsoft Windows Mobile Operators must place increased emphasis on managed mobility. © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 9
  • 10. Telcos unite behind infrastructure sharing Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, NSN Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, NSN Competitive differentiation lies in services, not network reach: Focus on service delivery platforms and innovation partners. © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 10
  • 11. Enterprise trust lifts telcos to the top of the cloud BT, Deutsche Telekom, NTT, Orange Amazon Web Services, GoGrid, Google Business Services, SingTel Smart telcos don't worry about the cloud: They realize the cloud needs them. Start talking up resilient connectivity. © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 11
  • 12. Agenda • State of Anywhere Economy • 2010 Predictions • Summary and Conclusions • Q&A © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 12
  • 13. 2010 Predictions Summary 1. Cord-cutting will double yet again 2. The bell tolls for device subsidies 3. Netbooks fall from grace 4. Consumers drive more than 50 percent of enterprise smartphone purchases 5. Chrome OS powers a new class of Anywhere devices 6. Cloudy IT sparks demand for clear management tools 7. Upstart upsets the equipment vendor applecart 8. Enterprise trust lifts telcos to the top of the cloud 9. Network innovation well runs dry 10. Telcos unite behind infrastructure sharing 11. U.S. network neutrality rules have domino effect worldwide © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 13
  • 14. Final Thoughts “Smart companies are fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffett • Opportunity is ripe, despite economic uncertainty • Avoid the hunker-down mentality • Adapt quickly to the new environment • Embrace transparency © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 14
  • 15. Q&A Get a FREE copy of Yankee Group’s 2010 Predictions report Register as a Guest at www.yankeegroup.com/join.do for instant access. © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Yankee Group 2010 Predictions Dec.15, 2009 Page 15
  • 16. Thank you! Christopher Collins, senior analyst, ccollins@yankeegroup.com Josh Holbrook, director, jholbrook@yankeegroup.com Camille Mendler, VP, cmendler@yankeegroup.com Jon Paisner, senior analyst, jpaisner@yankeegroup.com Upcoming Yankee Group webinar: Introducing ANYWHERE, the book – Jan. 14, 2010 Look for our 2010 webinar schedule at www.yankeegroup.com © Copyright 2008. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. www.yankeegroup.com

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Choices: Network operators Network equipment vendors Device manufacturers Media / content owners System integrators
  2. The time is here, mobility should be integrated into your 2009 holiday season In 2010, mobility will need to be a vital part of your holiday campaigns and will include payments Launch SMS for push and 2D barcodes for pull campaign Campaigns using both methods will reach more people with limited additional expense A single vendor can support both methods Do not charge consumers to receive MMS/SMS messages if they do not have a messaging bundle Create time sensitive and personalized campaigns but don’t try to combine offers and sales directly through the mobile channel Use mobile as a way to drive store traffic for specific campaigns, but conduct transactions through traditional payment methods Integrate with loyalty programs to limit the redemption at the PoS or provide discounts on monthly card statement